While I am not exactly thrilled about the idea of LF in Fenway being handled by a platoon, I decide to do a little further number crunching.  Based on the hitting profile of the last 3 years with normalized BABIP, my guesstimates for the production out of LF is as follows.

 

Gomes certainly fared worse than expected vs. LHP.   Assuming a nice even split of 150 PA for Gomes and 450PA for the LHH outfielder, Gomes posted a rather lackluster .247 / .344 / .452 (.796OPS) batting line with 7HRs and 20 Runs Created.   Clearly he does better, given he has not had an OPS vs. LHP lower than .856 during that stretch.  The reason rests on the fact that his BABIP vs. LHP over the last 3 years is .366, whereas his normalized BABIP given his LD/GB/FB splits figures to be in the area of .272.  Gomes does not make up for the difference with speed, and it could be that he simply mashes the tar out of the ball vs. LHP, making defensive lays difficult.  But, hey, my splits are my splits and Gomes did not match up well.

 

For left-handed hitters getting the bulk of the plate appearances, I looked at primary candidates Nava, Carp, Sweeney and the readily available Brennan Boesch.  They tabulated as follows.

Nava .245 / .324/ .379 (.703OPS) with 5 HRs and 49RC.

Carp .267 /.337 / .440 (.777OPS) with 15HRs and 60RC

Boesch  .243 / .297 / .388 (.685OPS) with 12HRs and 48RC

Sweeney . 269/ .330 / .368 (.698OPS) with 4HRs and 50RC.

 

Clearly Boesch is not worth looking at for a solution.  Right now, Carp figures to be the clear winner.

 

This means the expectations from the Carp / Gomes LF platoon should net a result of .261/ .338 / .443 (.781OPS) with 21HRs and 81RC.   Or almost exactly what Hanley Ramirez did last season…

Did Hanley Ramirez play for the Red Sox, last season?

The Red Sox are paying about 30 million for the OF, which is pitiful in the 3 and 4 slot. Shane is a 13 million dollar embarrassment.

Carp and Gomes are butchers in the field, not to mention how pitiful that is for LF. Carp came out of a trash can.

Let me give you a hint, given what Cherry has constructed on the current roster:

Note: Ellsbury should have been traded and Shane never signed, and J. Upton acquired and extended, but this is from what Cherry has on the books:

Platoon Shane and Gomes in LF

Ellsbury in CF because his arm is too weak to play anywerhe else

Bradley, Jr. in RF

 

Forget the notion of Gomes and Nava or Carp, which should get you fired for just suggesting it. The Red Sox wold have the 3rd and 4th OF roster slots as horrible defenders with no option for late inning close game lead defensive OF sub options. On offense, Nava and Carp and Gomes give the Red Sox inferior Fenway production against "v oppenents LF'ers for 2013".

Now, let's assume that, barring no long term DL's, that Gomes and Carp or Nava is a year long seaworthy ship. What is your plan for LF beyond this blown-up bridge to somewhere? Gomes and Carp?

Fired? Me?

 

Newsflash - I am not the GM! Or even employed by the Sox!

 

As for my "plan", I neither have nor need one. I am just using math here to run simple simulations. Although I know math is somewhat foreign to you...

Math and Fenway LF seem to be a problem for you. Thank you for those projections, and we should all look forward to a lot of terrible defense and inferior to the LF vistors production in Fenway.

Sincerely, thanks for those projections. As scary as it is, "Carp as the winner" is a smelly catch and truly a fish story. 

right now Carp is our best platoon option in LF. Thats not very comforting.

Although when Gomes played FT in Tampa his splits against RHP werent as bad. They werent great, but I think theres certain RHP that he does hit good against and should be playing against those pitchers.

I'm impressed with how this Red Sox OF has nice balance against lefty and righty. When you have a budget of about 150 million or more, you are going to get an OF with no weakness. Impressive.

In response to softlaw2's comment:

Outside of that Mrs. Lincoln, "how did you enjoy the play"   !!!

In response to Bill-806's comment:

mr. bill and mr. softy. loved that movie where they were portrayed by jim carrey and jeff daniels.

Carp might be the best option now, but it probably means little as the roster changes.  Jackie Bradley could end up filling that role by mid season or some other castoff from another team with decent platoon splits.  

Are you saying that the last 3 years Gomes has a BABIP against lefties of .366. But you are projecting a crazy low BABIP of .272? In Fenway? I can't buy that and feel it brings your normalising formula into question.

 

I still expect Sweeney to be the left fielder. With Carp on the bench. Nava and Bradley in the minors. Sweeney's defense, pitch taking, and equal OB% winning the day over Carp.

This means the expectations from the Carp / Gomes LF platoon should net a result of .261/ .338 / .443 (.781OPS) with 21HRs and 81RC.   Or almost exactly what Hanley Ramirez did last season…

1-The league average in the AL last year was .750 for LF.

2-I'm  not quite sure where the .796 for Gomes is coming from.  In the past three years, his lowest OPS v lefties was .856 in 2010, it was .863 in 2011, and .974 last year, and .894 for his career.

3-Nava's career against righties is .763.

By my estimation, they should have a .807, which exactly what Teixeira had last year, though I have no idea why we are comparing them to random players.

I think if we got 15 HR from Mike Carp we'd be quite happy, actually. ( assuming he even makes the club !??!).

But with uncertainty over Ortiz's health and full-season availability I foresee Gomes, Carp, and possibly Napoli sharing DH spot. Thus opening LF time for possibly Brentz or Linares combined with Nava , and even JBJr. coming up as soon as mid-June.

As long as Bradley gets to play full-time and not bench sit or platoon, I'd have no problem with his early debut. And since Brentz may have contact issues at ML level, wouldn't be at all surprised if Linares makes 40-man with eventual callup.

Carp might be the best option now, but it probably means little as the roster changes.  Jackie Bradley could end up filling that role by mid season or some other castoff from another team with decent platoon splits.  

Hire this idiot as the new GM. Carp as the 'best option now" and "by mid season some other castoff". 150 million a year or more budget leads to this kind of brilliance.

As opposed to the idiot who ranted endlessy anout how the Sox should have spent millions on James Loney and Reed Johnson?

Let's see, Reed Johnson for 1M and one year and Loney for 2M and 1 year, vs. Gomes for 5m a year for 2 years of gomes and .5M for the great Carp. Do the math.

In response to softlaw2's comment:

Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

 

I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

 

I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton. ...

In response to notin's comment:

The research was well appreciated notin and appears to be a fair assessment of what we may expect offensively.  Defensively I'm not so sure whether any of these guys will handle the monster well.  I predicted 88 wins out of this team through good health and the fact we seem to have a few dirt dogs back that may just be hungry enough to get it done with decent pitching.

I like our defense much less at this point at several positions.  Ross and Victorino should help out in a couple key areas but there will probably be games where our defense kills us.

Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

 

 1M more, but if the Red Sox had offered him 1M guaranteed early, I doubt he would have waited around. Loney is a better hitter an fielder, than the great Carp. Would have been a nice compliment to Napoli.

I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

 You miss the point, entirely. Ellsbury for one season plus the draft compensation was worth more than any single player ATL included in that garbage offer. Very easy to include a third team to use Ellsbury as trade currency. As I suspected, the Red Sox could have kept Bradley, Bogearts and Barnes and easily trumped the Braves. As I stated, the Red Sox simply needed to offer J. Upton an extension that paid him about 16 or 17M until age 33 and he would have waived the no trade which is nothing but leverage for an extension.

I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton

J. Upton was an option. Stanton is 2 to 3 years away. J. Upton has a career .900 OPS v LP. Stanton is about the same age but has only made it to 140 games in a season in the last two seasons. If Stanton is healthy when the time comes, he'll cost a lot more than J. Upton.

The problem with Stanton is the Marlins won't even think about trading him for at least 2 years. However, the Red Sox will need to embarrass themselves with Carp and Gomes and a revolving door and wait for another 2 or 3 years on Stanton bidding process. If he can put up 2 staright 140 plus big time production seasons, the NY Yankees will be the winning bidder for his free agent years.

This post has been removed.

In response to softlaw2's comment:

Thanks for the recommendation, Softy.  I'll be sure to use you as a reference.  

2012 Sox players with 180+ OBP vs RHPs:

1) Ortiz      .437

2) Nava     .383

3) AGon     .348

4) Pedey   .334

5) Sween   .316

6) Midds    .312

7) Chiriaco .312

8) Ellsbury .310

9) Ross      .308

10) Salty      .299

11) Aviles    .264

 

Nava's .797 OPS vs RHPs was the team's 4th best last year - just .001 behind 3rd (Middlebrooks at .797) and .009 away from 2nd (AGon at .806).

In response to notin's comment:

 

In response to softlaw2's comment:

 

Let's see, Reed Johnson for 1M and one year and Loney for 2M and 1 year, vs. Gomes for 5m a year for 2 years of gomes and .5M for the great Carp. Do the math.

 

Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

 

 

I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

 

I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton. ...

 

Speaking of Stanton...If Bogy keeps looking solid at 3b, do you think the Sox include WMB as a major piece to a trade for Stanton? Something like WMB/Doubie/Brentz/and maybe a Ranaudo type pitcher, if he performs well in 2013? At least its a starting point that wouldnt get you hung up on right away...

I read a couple places where Stanton could be available next offseason or earlier if he keeps trying to talk his way out of town. Only concern with him is hes been injured a bit. Hopefully its not a regular occurance...

 

I do not think with Nava in LF vs RHPs, we should be worrying more about that than our RF situation vs RH'ers.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

I think you're overrating the splits.  He had a .681 in 2010, and .787 in 2011.  The BABIP against righties was .292 in 2011.  In 2012, it was .250.  For a career, it is .290.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

 

In response to notin's comment:

 

In response to softlaw2's comment:

 

Let's see, Reed Johnson for 1M and one year and Loney for 2M and 1 year, vs. Gomes for 5m a year for 2 years of gomes and .5M for the great Carp. Do the math.

 

Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

 

 

I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

 

I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton. ...

 

Speaking of Stanton...If Bogy keeps looking solid at 3b, do you think the Sox include WMB as a major piece to a trade for Stanton? Something like WMB/Doubie/Brentz/and maybe a Ranaudo type pitcher, if he performs well in 2013? At least its a starting point that wouldnt get you hung up on right away...

I read a couple places where Stanton could be available next offseason or earlier if he keeps trying to talk his way out of town. Only concern with him is hes been injured a bit. Hopefully its not a regular occurance...

 

 

I would give Stanton another year or two before really judging his overall health, or mindset to help a club long term. 

I do like the idea of the kid in Boston!