More on LF and Silly Projections

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    More on LF and Silly Projections

    While I am not exactly thrilled about the idea of LF in Fenway being handled by a platoon, I decide to do a little further number crunching.  Based on the hitting profile of the last 3 years with normalized BABIP, my guesstimates for the production out of LF is as follows.

     

    Gomes certainly fared worse than expected vs. LHP.   Assuming a nice even split of 150 PA for Gomes and 450PA for the LHH outfielder, Gomes posted a rather lackluster .247 / .344 / .452 (.796OPS) batting line with 7HRs and 20 Runs Created.   Clearly he does better, given he has not had an OPS vs. LHP lower than .856 during that stretch.  The reason rests on the fact that his BABIP vs. LHP over the last 3 years is .366, whereas his normalized BABIP given his LD/GB/FB splits figures to be in the area of .272.  Gomes does not make up for the difference with speed, and it could be that he simply mashes the tar out of the ball vs. LHP, making defensive lays difficult.  But, hey, my splits are my splits and Gomes did not match up well.

     

    For left-handed hitters getting the bulk of the plate appearances, I looked at primary candidates Nava, Carp, Sweeney and the readily available Brennan Boesch.  They tabulated as follows.

    Nava .245 / .324/ .379 (.703OPS) with 5 HRs and 49RC.

    Carp .267 /.337 / .440 (.777OPS) with 15HRs and 60RC

    Boesch  .243 / .297 / .388 (.685OPS) with 12HRs and 48RC

    Sweeney . 269/ .330 / .368 (.698OPS) with 4HRs and 50RC.

     

    Clearly Boesch is not worth looking at for a solution.  Right now, Carp figures to be the clear winner.

     

    This means the expectations from the Carp / Gomes LF platoon should net a result of .261/ .338 / .443 (.781OPS) with 21HRs and 81RC.   Or almost exactly what Hanley Ramirez did last season…

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    Fired? Me?

     

    Newsflash - I am not the GM! Or even employed by the Sox!

     

    As for my "plan", I neither have nor need one. I am just using math here to run simple simulations. Although I know math is somewhat foreign to you...

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    right now Carp is our best platoon option in LF. Thats not very comforting.

    Although when Gomes played FT in Tampa his splits against RHP werent as bad. They werent great, but I think theres certain RHP that he does hit good against and should be playing against those pitchers.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    Carp might be the best option now, but it probably means little as the roster changes.  Jackie Bradley could end up filling that role by mid season or some other castoff from another team with decent platoon splits.  

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    Are you saying that the last 3 years Gomes has a BABIP against lefties of .366. But you are projecting a crazy low BABIP of .272? In Fenway? I can't buy that and feel it brings your normalising formula into question.

     

    I still expect Sweeney to be the left fielder. With Carp on the bench. Nava and Bradley in the minors. Sweeney's defense, pitch taking, and equal OB% winning the day over Carp.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    This means the expectations from the Carp / Gomes LF platoon should net a result of .261/ .338 / .443 (.781OPS) with 21HRs and 81RC.   Or almost exactly what Hanley Ramirez did last season…

    1-The league average in the AL last year was .750 for LF.

    2-I'm  not quite sure where the .796 for Gomes is coming from.  In the past three years, his lowest OPS v lefties was .856 in 2010, it was .863 in 2011, and .974 last year, and .894 for his career.

    3-Nava's career against righties is .763.

    By my estimation, they should have a .807, which exactly what Teixeira had last year, though I have no idea why we are comparing them to random players.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    I think if we got 15 HR from Mike Carp we'd be quite happy, actually. ( assuming he even makes the club !??!).

    But with uncertainty over Ortiz's health and full-season availability I foresee Gomes, Carp, and possibly Napoli sharing DH spot. Thus opening LF time for possibly Brentz or Linares combined with Nava , and even JBJr. coming up as soon as mid-June.

    As long as Bradley gets to play full-time and not bench sit or platoon, I'd have no problem with his early debut. And since Brentz may have contact issues at ML level, wouldn't be at all surprised if Linares makes 40-man with eventual callup.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    As opposed to the idiot who ranted endlessy anout how the Sox should have spent millions on James Loney and Reed Johnson?

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Let's see, Reed Johnson for 1M and one year and Loney for 2M and 1 year, vs. Gomes for 5m a year for 2 years of gomes and .5M for the great Carp. Do the math.



    Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

     

    I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

     

    I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton. ...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to notin's comment:

    While I am not exactly thrilled about the idea of LF in Fenway being handled by a platoon, I decide to do a little further number crunching.  Based on the hitting profile of the last 3 years with normalized BABIP, my guesstimates for the production out of LF is as follows.

     

    Gomes certainly fared worse than expected vs. LHP.   Assuming a nice even split of 150 PA for Gomes and 450PA for the LHH outfielder, Gomes posted a rather lackluster .247 / .344 / .452 (.796OPS) batting line with 7HRs and 20 Runs Created.   Clearly he does better, given he has not had an OPS vs. LHP lower than .856 during that stretch.  The reason rests on the fact that his BABIP vs. LHP over the last 3 years is .366, whereas his normalized BABIP given his LD/GB/FB splits figures to be in the area of .272.  Gomes does not make up for the difference with speed, and it could be that he simply mashes the tar out of the ball vs. LHP, making defensive lays difficult.  But, hey, my splits are my splits and Gomes did not match up well.

     

    For left-handed hitters getting the bulk of the plate appearances, I looked at primary candidates Nava, Carp, Sweeney and the readily available Brennan Boesch.  They tabulated as follows.

    Nava .245 / .324/ .379 (.703OPS) with 5 HRs and 49RC.

    Carp .267 /.337 / .440 (.777OPS) with 15HRs and 60RC

    Boesch  .243 / .297 / .388 (.685OPS) with 12HRs and 48RC

    Sweeney . 269/ .330 / .368 (.698OPS) with 4HRs and 50RC.

     

    Clearly Boesch is not worth looking at for a solution.  Right now, Carp figures to be the clear winner.

     

    This means the expectations from the Carp / Gomes LF platoon should net a result of .261/ .338 / .443 (.781OPS) with 21HRs and 81RC.   Or almost exactly what Hanley Ramirez did last season…



    The research was well appreciated notin and appears to be a fair assessment of what we may expect offensively.  Defensively I'm not so sure whether any of these guys will handle the monster well.  I predicted 88 wins out of this team through good health and the fact we seem to have a few dirt dogs back that may just be hungry enough to get it done with decent pitching.

    I like our defense much less at this point at several positions.  Ross and Victorino should help out in a couple key areas but there will probably be games where our defense kills us.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Carp might be the best option now, but it probably means little as the roster changes.  Jackie Bradley could end up filling that role by mid season or some other castoff from another team with decent platoon splits.  

    Hire this idiot as the new GM. Carp as the 'best option now" and "by mid season some other castoff". 150 million a year or more budget leads to this kind of brilliance.



    Thanks for the recommendation, Softy.  I'll be sure to use you as a reference.  

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    2012 Sox players with 180+ OBP vs RHPs:

    1) Ortiz      .437

    2) Nava     .383

    3) AGon     .348

    4) Pedey   .334

    5) Sween   .316

    6) Midds    .312

    7) Chiriaco .312

    8) Ellsbury .310

    9) Ross      .308

    10) Salty      .299

    11) Aviles    .264

     

    Nava's .797 OPS vs RHPs was the team's 4th best last year - just .001 behind 3rd (Middlebrooks at .797) and .009 away from 2nd (AGon at .806).

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Let's see, Reed Johnson for 1M and one year and Loney for 2M and 1 year, vs. Gomes for 5m a year for 2 years of gomes and .5M for the great Carp. Do the math.

     



    Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

     

     

    I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

     

    I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton. ...

     




    Speaking of Stanton...If Bogy keeps looking solid at 3b, do you think the Sox include WMB as a major piece to a trade for Stanton? Something like WMB/Doubie/Brentz/and maybe a Ranaudo type pitcher, if he performs well in 2013? At least its a starting point that wouldnt get you hung up on right away...

    I read a couple places where Stanton could be available next offseason or earlier if he keeps trying to talk his way out of town. Only concern with him is hes been injured a bit. Hopefully its not a regular occurance...

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    I do not think with Nava in LF vs RHPs, we should be worrying more about that than our RF situation vs RH'ers.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I do not think with Nava in LF vs RHPs, we should be worrying more about that than our RF situation vs RH'ers.



    I think you're overrating the splits.  He had a .681 in 2010, and .787 in 2011.  The BABIP against righties was .292 in 2011.  In 2012, it was .250.  For a career, it is .290.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Let's see, Reed Johnson for 1M and one year and Loney for 2M and 1 year, vs. Gomes for 5m a year for 2 years of gomes and .5M for the great Carp. Do the math.

     



    Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

     

     

    I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

     

    I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton. ...

     




    Speaking of Stanton...If Bogy keeps looking solid at 3b, do you think the Sox include WMB as a major piece to a trade for Stanton? Something like WMB/Doubie/Brentz/and maybe a Ranaudo type pitcher, if he performs well in 2013? At least its a starting point that wouldnt get you hung up on right away...

    I read a couple places where Stanton could be available next offseason or earlier if he keeps trying to talk his way out of town. Only concern with him is hes been injured a bit. Hopefully its not a regular occurance...

     

     



    I would give Stanton another year or two before really judging his overall health, or mindset to help a club long term. 

    I do like the idea of the kid in Boston!

     

     
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