More on LF and Silly Projections

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I do not think with Nava in LF vs RHPs, we should be worrying more about that than our RF situation vs RH'ers.

     



    I think you're overrating the splits.  He had a .681 in 2010, and .787 in 2011.  The BABIP against righties was .292 in 2011.  In 2012, it was .250.  For a career, it is .290.

     

     



    It's still worse than Nava.

     

    SV has a career OBP vs RHPs under .330. It's not horrible, but it's a bigger weakness than we have in LF with Nava.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Let's see, Reed Johnson for 1M and one year and Loney for 2M and 1 year, vs. Gomes for 5m a year for 2 years of gomes and .5M for the great Carp. Do the math.

     



    Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

     

     

    I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

     

    I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton. ...

     




    Speaking of Stanton...If Bogy keeps looking solid at 3b, do you think the Sox include WMB as a major piece to a trade for Stanton? Something like WMB/Doubie/Brentz/and maybe a Ranaudo type pitcher, if he performs well in 2013? At least its a starting point that wouldnt get you hung up on right away...

    I read a couple places where Stanton could be available next offseason or earlier if he keeps trying to talk his way out of town. Only concern with him is hes been injured a bit. Hopefully its not a regular occurance...

     

     



    I would give Stanton another year or two before really judging his overall health, or mindset to help a club long term. 

    I do like the idea of the kid in Boston!

     




    Oh, Id wait too. I was Just thinking out loud I guess...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    Sometimes, the more you wait, the higher the price.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    Where Bogy ends up playing will tell us a lot more about the future at SS, 3B and 1B.  I wouldn't trade him or Bradley Jr.  Any potential trade talk for Stanton would most likely include one of them.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I do not think with Nava in LF vs RHPs, we should be worrying more about that than our RF situation vs RH'ers.

     



    I think you're overrating the splits.  He had a .681 in 2010, and .787 in 2011.  The BABIP against righties was .292 in 2011.  In 2012, it was .250.  For a career, it is .290.

     

     



    It's still worse than Nava.

     

    SV has a career OBP vs RHPs under .330. It's not horrible, but it's a bigger weakness than we have in LF with Nava.

     



    You still wouldn't start him over Vic.  I'm fine with Nava splitting time with Gomes in LF, but Vic is a much better fielder and baserunner.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    Where Bogy ends up playing will tell us a lot more about the future at SS, 3B and 1B.  I wouldn't trade him or Bradley Jr.  Any potential trade talk for Stanton would most likely include one of them so I think we would be better off playing that out first.



    One more thing to consider is the years of quality control.  He has one year left at minimum wage. One of the mistakes I see in here is that a lot of folks consider all control years to be about the same.  There are some players that are DFA'd in Y6 because their arb cost is higher than what they'd get as a FA.  I doubt it would be that way for Stanton, but the value/$ is a downward curve with a steep decline.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Sometimes, the more you wait, the higher the price.




    The price is going to be extremely high either way

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Sometimes, the more you wait, the higher the price.

     




    The price is going to be extremely high either way

     



    definitely, unless he performs poorly this season.. even so, i'd take a chance on him. but i DO think you'd have to give up one of JBJ/XB/WMB at least

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Reed Johnson got more money than that from Atlanta.  Also you left out the part where Loney cannot hit.

     

     1M more, but if the Red Sox had offered him 1M guaranteed early, I doubt he would have waited around. Loney is a better hitter an fielder, than the great Carp. Would have been a nice compliment to Napoli.

    I'd rather have Justin Upton in LF too. But Arizona wanted no part of Ellsbury and Upton did specifically state he would NOT waive his no trade to Bostom and that it was NOT a negotiating ploy.

     You miss the point, entirely. Ellsbury for one season plus the draft compensation was worth more than any single player ATL included in that garbage offer. Very easy to include a third team to use Ellsbury as trade currency. As I suspected, the Red Sox could have kept Bradley, Bogearts and Barnes and easily trumped the Braves. As I stated, the Red Sox simply needed to offer J. Upton an extension that paid him about 16 or 17M until age 33 and he would have waived the no trade which is nothing but leverage for an extension.

    I do hate platoons (re-read the first line in the original post) but Upton was not an option. So one year of Carp/Gomes and bide time for Stanton

    J. Upton was an option. Stanton is 2 to 3 years away. J. Upton has a career .900 OPS v LP. Stanton is about the same age but has only made it to 140 games in a season in the last two seasons. If Stanton is healthy when the time comes, he'll cost a lot more than J. Upton.

    The problem with Stanton is the Marlins won't even think about trading him for at least 2 years. However, the Red Sox will need to embarrass themselves with Carp and Gomes and a revolving door and wait for another 2 or 3 years on Stanton bidding process. If he can put up 2 staright 140 plus big time production seasons, the NY Yankees will be the winning bidder for his free agent years.




    No, I am not the one missing points and revising recent history.

     

    1. Ellsbury's draft pick apprently means little to AZ.  The acquired Prado, who could have had similar compensation and they extended him, and for roughly the same money as a qualifying offer.  I do agree Boston could have topped that offer, but Ellsbury would not have been part of it, unless a third team was involved.  The real issue appears to be Towers wanting a 3B, and dealing Ellsbury for a 3B would have been difficult if you look around the league at teams that need CF and have 3B to spare.  (Hint:  None.)

    2.  I like Reed Johnson and think he is a pretty underrated player.  But he also would have taken more money elsewhere.

    3.  Loney is awful, and I would certainly not put any money on him outproducing Carp.   And that is not exactly a ringing endorseent for Carp.  Loney's defensive reputation appears to be just that, a reputation.  His actual skils on field are average on a good day.  The sad part about Loney;s defense is that his best asset is an above average throwing arm, yet he plays a position that neutralizes it.  And attempts to move him to the OF where it would be an asset have all been miserable failures. 

    4.  Upton did state he would not sign an extension in Boston, nor would he approve a trade there, much like he did not to Seattle.  And to sign that meager extension for a high profile player turning 28 at free agency is laughable.  His agent is aware that players with his career and reaching free agency prior to age 30 are in line for Manny- Ramirez-esque contracts.  Upton will be getting Matt Kemp money, and he and his agent are well aware of this, and will strongly advise Justin to wait.and test the market.  At least that is way any agent with one active brain cell would do.  Sure a Matt Kemp contrat could get it done, but not a deal that is woth much less.

    5.  Stanton is likely to be available after 2013 season, as he will be eligible for arbitration and cost Miami actual money.   He will be a tough trade acquisition, but given his contract status, years of control and age, he could be a real coup.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    It's still worse than Nava.

     

    SV has a career OBP vs RHPs under .330. It's not horrible, but it's a bigger weakness than we have in LF with Nava.

     

     



    You still wouldn't start him over Vic.  I'm fine with Nava splitting time with Gomes in LF, but Vic is a much better fielder and baserunner.

    No, I would not start Nava in RF very often, but my point remains: why is everyone worried about our LF production on offense vs RHPs, when Victorino is much worse than Nava?

    We may have issues getting on base vs RHPs, and Nava was one of our best last year. Everyone seems worried.

    Victorino has a long history of having serious issues getting on base vs RHPs over his whole career. Nobody seems to be worried.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It's still worse than Nava.

     

    SV has a career OBP vs RHPs under .330. It's not horrible, but it's a bigger weakness than we have in LF with Nava.

     

     



    You still wouldn't start him over Vic.  I'm fine with Nava splitting time with Gomes in LF, but Vic is a much better fielder and baserunner.

    No, I would not start Nava in RF very often, but my point remains: why is everyone worried about our LF production on offense vs RHPs, when Victorino is much worse than Nava?

    We may have issues getting on base vs RHPs, and Nava was one of our best last year. Everyone seems worried.

    Victorino has a long history of having serious issues getting on base vs RHPs over his whole career. Nobody seems to be worried.



    SVs OBP vs RHP over the past 3 seasons is .311. which is mediocre. but he has excellent defense and plus speed which makes up for it a little bit. besides, i do not see a visible upgrade in our system so we gotta play with the cards we are dealt.

    Gomes on the other hand has no defense and marginal speed so it makes sense to platoon him with anyone else who can hit RHP. Noone else available is going to give us what SV will in the field and on the basepaths so we gotta play him everyday and hope he has a plus season vs RHP.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    SVs OBP vs RHP over the past 3 seasons is .311. which is mediocre. but he has excellent defense and plus speed which makes up for it a little bit. besides, i do not see a visible upgrade in our system so we gotta play with the cards we are dealt.

     

    1) .311 would place 27th last year among the 30 MLB RF'ers with 450+ PAs.

    2) I'm not arguing about SV's overall value. One big issue on this thread is the poor offense we might have in LF vs RHPs. I raised the point that Nava has had very good offensive numbers, particularly OBP in recent years. I mentioned that he is not our offensive weak link vs RHPs. There are several more worse than him on offense, and SV tops the weak link list on offense  vs RHPs.

     

    Gomes on the other hand has no defense and marginal speed so it makes sense to platoon him with anyone else who can hit RHP. Noone else available is going to give us what SV will in the field and on the basepaths so we gotta play him everyday and hope he has a plus season vs RHP.

    My point isn't about platooning Nava with SV in RF, although he may end up playing in RF on days SV rests (vs RHPs hopefully). It's about so many posters seeing our offense vs RHPs in LF as a big weak link. Our offense vs RHPs in RF is a bigger worry. Our defense at several positions is also a bigger weakness.

    A Gomes/Nava platoon in LF has the potential of being our best offensive position on the team in 2013.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    SVs OBP vs RHP over the past 3 seasons is .311. which is mediocre. but he has excellent defense and plus speed which makes up for it a little bit. besides, i do not see a visible upgrade in our system so we gotta play with the cards we are dealt.

     

    1) .311 would place 27th last year among the 30 MLB RF'ers with 450+ PAs.

    2) I'm not arguing about SV's overall value. One big issue on this thread is the poor offense we might have in LF vs RHPs. I raised the point that Nava has had very good offensive numbers, particularly OBP in recent years. I mentioned that he is not our offensive weak link vs RHPs. There are several more worse than him on offense, and SV tops the weak link list on offense  vs RHPs.

     

    Gomes on the other hand has no defense and marginal speed so it makes sense to platoon him with anyone else who can hit RHP. Noone else available is going to give us what SV will in the field and on the basepaths so we gotta play him everyday and hope he has a plus season vs RHP.

    My point isn't about platooning Nava with SV in RF, although he may end up playing in RF on days SV rests (vs RHPs hopefully). It's about so many posters seeing our offense vs RHPs in LF as a big weak link. Our offense vs RHPs in RF is a bigger worry. Our defense at several positions is also a bigger weakness.

    A Gomes/Nava platoon in LF has the potential of being our best offensive position on the team in 2013.



    Moon, see the realistic thread. i proposed having a LF platoon of Gomes/Drew which would free up Nava to play a bit more in RF against RHP. which would bolster our numbers VS RHP (unless the addition of Iggy into the lineup didn't negate that) and also give Iggy the chance to play SS.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    SVs OBP vs RHP over the past 3 seasons is .311. which is mediocre. but he has excellent defense and plus speed which makes up for it a little bit. besides, i do not see a visible upgrade in our system so we gotta play with the cards we are dealt.

     

    1) .311 would place 27th last year among the 30 MLB RF'ers with 450+ PAs.

    2) I'm not arguing about SV's overall value. One big issue on this thread is the poor offense we might have in LF vs RHPs. I raised the point that Nava has had very good offensive numbers, particularly OBP in recent years. I mentioned that he is not our offensive weak link vs RHPs. There are several more worse than him on offense, and SV tops the weak link list on offense  vs RHPs.

     

    Gomes on the other hand has no defense and marginal speed so it makes sense to platoon him with anyone else who can hit RHP. Noone else available is going to give us what SV will in the field and on the basepaths so we gotta play him everyday and hope he has a plus season vs RHP.

    My point isn't about platooning Nava with SV in RF, although he may end up playing in RF on days SV rests (vs RHPs hopefully). It's about so many posters seeing our offense vs RHPs in LF as a big weak link. Our offense vs RHPs in RF is a bigger worry. Our defense at several positions is also a bigger weakness.

    A Gomes/Nava platoon in LF has the potential of being our best offensive position on the team in 2013.

     



    Moon, see the realistic thread. i proposed having a LF platoon of Gomes/Drew which would free up Nava to play a bit more in RF against RHP. which would bolster our numbers VS RHP (unless the addition of Iggy into the lineup didn't negate that) and also give Iggy the chance to play SS.

     



    I'm not sure about Nava's fielding in RF, but the offense would improve with your plan.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    it is going to be an ugly season....and not just after Cherry pulls the plug after the trade deadline...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to georom4's comment:

    it is going to be an ugly season....and not just after Cherry pulls the plug after the trade deadline...



    He may "pull it" at the deadline, and we may end up with a bunch of nice prospects as a result.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to georom4's comment:

    it is going to be an ugly season....and not just after Cherry pulls the plug after the trade deadline...



    Cheer up man...the starting pitching has looked pretty good so far.  Lester's been excellent and Lackey seems to be throwing the ball decently.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    it is going to be an ugly season....and not just after Cherry pulls the plug after the trade deadline...

     



    Cheer up man...the starting pitching has looked pretty good so far.  Lester's been excellent and Lackey seems to be throwing the ball decently.

     



    It's gonna take a lot to go right, but that's what spring is all about: HOPE!

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    So much for your promise to stay on your own lame thread.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Upton did state he would not sign an extension in Boston

    False.

    And to sign that meager extension for a high profile player turning 28 at free agency is laughable.  His agent is aware that players with his career and reaching free agency prior to age 30 are in line for Manny- Ramirez-esque contracts.

    6 years and about 100 million is not "laughable". You make the laughable assumption that that J. Upton is going to turn down 100 million to see if you he can play three years of top performance baseball and then try and gamble on getting 160 million on a player he doesn't come close to in performance, and more likely Matt Holiday and 120 million is more like the market he's looking at. Don't insult my intelligence when talking FA and contracts.

    The reality is that the Red Sox could have acquired J. Upton by trumping the Braves modest offer by converting Ellsbury into prospects as part of the capital to do so, and 100 million guaranteed to J. Upton would have been right around what would have closed that extension. Carl Crawbust set back free agency, he didn't fuel it.

    As for R. Johnson, the fact is that he would have taken the first gauarteed 2M offer on the table. Part of a GM's job is anticipating and understanding time is of the essence.

    Your nonsense about "Carp v Loney" is pure nonsense. Carp is a joke. Carp has 18 hoemrs in his entire career! Loney was cheap and was an excellent bench compliment to Napoli.

    I get the reflexive catatonia, but don't insult my intelligence by defending a 30 million dollar a year OF that consists of Gomes, Carp, Ellsbury and Shane. The GM who did that should be fired on the spot. 



    http://www.overthemonster.com/2013/1/24/3912312/justin-upton-trade-boston-red-sox-arizona-diamondbacks-atlanta-braves

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to georom4's comment:

    it is going to be an ugly season....and not just after Cherry pulls the plug after the trade deadline...



    Isn't that what you say every spring?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: More on LF and Silly Projections

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    it is going to be an ugly season....and not just after Cherry pulls the plug after the trade deadline...

     



    Isn't that what you say every spring?

     



    and all summer long

     
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