Prelude: The 2012 Season wil be remembered as a season of failed expectations, injured and underperforming stars, on-air threats from Valentine, but most importantly - a fresh start. The Los Angeles Dodgers inexplicably wiped away those creeping doubts of trying to figure out how to put together a roster in 2013, '14, '15, and beyond with so many large dollar commitments on the payroll. The Red Sox still have a nucleus of players that have the ability to perform at a high level and when supplemented with the proper free agent and trade targets - this team could be in contention for the AL pennant. Free agency is meant to be a supplement to organizational player development. Gone are the days of 7 and 8 year deals for $20 Million+. Though the Red Sox are an incredibly wealthy club and a money making machine, it is wise to use that money on short term deals to patch the clubs immediate holes without compromising the long-term financial health of the club. Here is your guide to assemble the 2013 Red Sox.

Manager: Cherington did well to bring back some semblance of comfort to the team with the familiar face of John Farrell. Losing Mike Aviles is negligble and Farrell is expected to bring back happy thoughts to the clubhouse. Farrell should be able to help the starting pitchers return to form this season (along with the help of Varitek, who is now working for the Sox in some capacity).

Starting Pitching: As we all know, this was an area of great disappointment for the 2012 Sox. Here is what we have to build on...

Jon Lester - 29 - $11.625M

Clay Buchholz - 28 - $5.5M

John Lackey - 34 - $15.25M

*Felix Doubront - 25 - $500k

Sign: Anibal Sanchez - 29 - 3/$36M

Trade: Brett Anderson - 25 - $5.75M (J. Saltalamacchia, D. Britton, B. Jacobs for Anderson)

Lester, Buchholz, and unfortunately Lackey are here to stay for 2013. That leaves two spots open for the opening day rotation. Anibal Sanchez is an attractive candidate for a few reasons. Number 1 - he will be 29 next season and 3 year deal has him controlled at ages 29, 30, and 31 (hardly geriatric); Number 2 - he will not command a draft pick to sign because he cannot be given a qualifying offer from the Tigers; and Number 3 - he is durable and consistent as he has posted three straight seasons of 195 innings pitched with an ERA below 3.9. In my mind, 3/36 is enough to get the deal done as this represents some long term security for him with a salary $4M  higher per year than his last contract. Brett Anderson is in a similar situation as Gio Gonzalez was last season. With an inflating salary, it is inevitable he will be traded by the As. He was once a top pitching prospect, but he was forced to undergo TJS two seasons ago before making an impressive (albeit brief) return last season. Given the depth of the Oakland staff and their need for offense, I could see Anderson as a realistic trade target. Webster, Barnes, and de la Rosa are depth options mid season.

Bullpen: The pieces are here for a solid bullpen already and everyone's fingers are crossed the Daniel Bard can return to a dominant 8th inning man again.

Andrew Bailey - 29 - $4M

Daniel Bard - 28 - $1.8M

Junichi Tazawa - 27 - $500k

Alfredo Aceves - 30 - $1.8M

Andrew Miller - 28 - $1.2M

Craig Breslow - 32 - $2M

Sign: JP Howell - 30 - 2/$4M

I think with Valentine gone, Aceves will fall back in line and be that valuable swingman once again. Tazawa is a lock with his impressive 2012 performance. Bailey, Bard, Miller, and Breslow return with reasonable expectations of success. The lone addition is JP Howell, who is likely to be a free agent. This move gives Farrell 3 lefties and 4 righties in the bullpen.

Catcher: With Saltalamacchia headed to Oakland in the Brett Anderson trade, the starter spot is open. Not yet Lavarnway...not yet.

Sign: Mike Napoli - 31 - 2/$24M

Sign: David Ross - 36 - 1/$3M

Mike Napoli possesses similar boom or bust qualities that Salty did, however, he is right handed with prodigious power and has had very impressive results in Fenway. The Sox have been willing to sacrifice defense behind the plate in exchange for offense recently (Martinez, Saltalamacchia) and this trend continues. Napoli posts sub-par CS% (career 24%), but has caught some impressive pitchers in LA and TEX and has garnered praise for his game calling ability. He can catch 90-100 games while chipping in at 1B/DH if necessary. David Ross is a solid veteran backup who posts equally impressive numbers against both lefties and righties. Great defender who can supplement Napoli's catching duties. Lavarnway rides the Pawtucket-Boston express next season as the number 3 catcher.

Infield: Middlebrooks and Pedroia are the only certainties in the infield in 2013. Shortstop and first base are positions of interest. Though I have previously been harsh on Iglesias, I believe he has a realistic shot at being the opening day starter at short. His defense might actually be worth the black hole in the lineup. As for first base - I have one target in mind.

3B: Will Middlebrooks - 24 - $500k

2B: Dustin Pedroia - 29 - $10M

SS: Jose Iglesias - 23 - $2M

1B: Trade: Billy Butler - 27 - $8M (F. Doubront, B. Workman, A. Wilson, J. Hazelbaker for Butler)

UTIL: Pedro Ciriaco - 27 - $500k

DH: David Ortiz - 37 - 2/$24M

Kansas City said they were interested in trading a hitter for pitching. Offering Doubront, Workman, and Wilson give KC three MLB (or close to MLB ready) pitchers along with an outfielder in need of an opportunity for Butler. Billy is young, consistent, productive, and durable and would provide a solution to first base.

Outfielders: For me, trading Ellsbury is not an option. It is impossible to get equal value for him so in the best interest of the 2013 squad, Ellsbury is in center and leading off. If he leaves for draft picks in the offseason, so be it. Left field and right field are in question.

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury - 29 - $8M

LF: Sign: Angel Pagan - 31 - 2/$16M

RF: Cody Ross - 31 - 2/$16M

UTIL: Ryan Kalish - 25 - $500k

UTIL: Daniel Nava - 30 - $500k

Pagan is another outfielder with experience at all three positions. He plays solid defense and brings an element of speed that this team misses when Ellsbury is out of the lineup. Cody Ross returns on a reasonable deal given his production and positive attitude. With two switch hitters, two lefties, one righty, and Ciriaco as a possible option - this is a versatile outfield.

Payroll: Approximately $136.5M (if my math is right)

Lineup:

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Butler

Ortiz

Napoli

Middlebrooks

Ross

Pagan

Iglesias

Rotation:

Lester

Buchholz

Sanchez

Anderson

Lackey

Most Importantly: Competitive team with reasonable (non-taxable) payroll for a large market team. No long term contracts means that prospects who deserve a shot (Bradley, Barnes, Boaegarts) won't be blocked and anyone who is worth resigning (Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Lester, Butler etc) will be realistic.

Questions/Comments: Sorry about the length of this post, I decided it best to just get all my thoughts on one post rather than to trickle them out. Are my trade offers/free agent offers unrealistic? I think the free agent offers might necessitate slightly more cash to make up for the short term, but they are fair offers. Can this roster win? I think yes. Is this organizational model sustainable? I also say yes.

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In response to wallyisdead's comment:

@OP, very good post i see that as a pretty competitive team. i especially like the part about keeping jacoby. but i disagree on pagan, i think we could do better than that offensively and still have depth in all parts of the OF because our backup OF'ers are very versatile. Also, i'm iffy on iggy. if that lineup stays healthy and middlebrooks is what we think he is then it could be potent enough to have iggys bat but with how unlucky we have been with injuries i wouldn't count on it. Also i think ciriaco will be starting before iggy, he has in no way earned the roster spot right off the bat. it will definitely be an open position going into ST

some good ideas for sure, i like the idea of signing napoli and howell, and the billy butler trade. Although i would go after hosmer if i was ben cherington as he has huge potential. He is 23, is up for a gold glove at first, and has 30 homer potential. think young adrian gonzalez. and after a disappointing softmore year, he poised to bounce back and live up to his potential. kc needs pitching, so there is a deal to be made here. I would be happy with butler instead of hosmer, but if givin the choice would take hosmer. I also heard logan morrisons name being mentioned as a possible 1B target, i would take him at the right price, but would be prefer butler or hosmer. As for pitchers, anibal shachez is a good pitcher, but the sox need an ace. sanchez is a number 3 tops. Cant say i am a fan of signing angel pagan, no sure why the sox would want him. would rather start kalish or give jackie bradley jr a look in spring training. 

In response to TitleTown11's comment:

One year of a .288 OBP catcher and a few sub-Top 10 Red Sox prospects won't fetch Brett Anderson, who next season won't earn much more ($5.5 million) than Jarrod Saltalamacchia (projected $3.9 million).

I suspect Kansas City would receive better offers for Billy Butler than five years of 4.86 ERA pitcher and more sub-Top 10 Red Sox prospects.

Given the dearth of pitching in the free agent market, I question whether three years and $36 million will land Anibal Sanchez.

But, again, nice work.

In response to hill55's comment:

In response to hill55's comment:

I don't see a 4.86 pitcher when I look at Doubront, nor do I think KC will, either. Doubront is a young, cost-controlled left hander with a year of reasonable success under his belt. I would predict with a measured amount of certainty that he will improve over the next five years. He had a great strikeout rate and swing and miss percentages in his first season. As he gets older and becomes a better pitcher, he will have to become more efficient. Many young pitchers struggle with that. The other prospects are ones who I categorize as small market players. They are approaching the end of prospect age, but are not going to get an opportunity in Boston. In KC though, they would be much more likely to break into the MLB. Workman was the Sox minor league pitcher of the year. Hazelbaker has 20/40 potential. Doubront, plus those other players (and maybe cash), is the framework of a deal for Butler.

I'd be willing to go 3/42 or 4/48 for Anibal.

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He won't get an arbitration raise of $2M for the year he had last season...he will get $8.5M at most. As for the rest of your post, I choose to ignore. I have been reading your Justin Upton propaganda for the last 2 years and frankly, I've had enough.

Good post TT11...Although I would keep Salty and try to just add Ross (Atlanta really wants him back after picking up McCanns option) if we can.

The trade offers will at least get the talks going if not get the deals done. I might try and sign Torii Hunter on a 1 or 2 year deal and leaning towards keeping Doubie if we can.

If all your scinarios worked out I certainly would not complain.

I considered adding Torii to this roster, but I elected for the younger, speedier, switch hitting outfielder in Pagan. Though I would complain with Ross in left and Hunter in right.

In response to TitleTown11's comment:

First of all, nice work, and more detail than really required at the message board level.

I do think a lot of the trades and signings are a bit weak, not in terms of targets but in terms of costs. For example, even upping the offer to Sanchez seems light in view of Jake Peavy signing a 2 year $29mill extension without testing the market. Sanchez – and solid point about not losing the draft pick – does have a career very similar to AJ Burnett, and he might be expecting a similar deal, especially as he is two years younger than Burnett was when he signed his. And given the influx of TV revenue, Sanchez might not have much difficulty getting a 5 year / $80mill offer somewhere.

I love Anderson as well, and think he is among the best under-25 pitchers in MLB. Consider that similar pitchers Trevor Cahill and Mat Latos were dealt for packages including Jarrod Parker (BA # 26) and others (for Cahill) and Yoder Alonso (BA #35) and Yasmani Grandal (BA #53), and others, including Edinson Volquez (for Latos). Cahill did come pre-extended do a fairly large contract that exceeds Andersons, so that presumably influenced his value. I would think to get Anderson, a ranked prospect from BA might help somewhat, and that probably means at least one of Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes or Webster.  At the very leas, a package with Cecchini.    A trade of Saltalamacchia, Britton and Jacobs more likely gets a pitcher like Jeff Karstens or Dillon Gee. Maybe if the Mets were desperate, they bump to Jon Niese, but I would not hold my breath. Of course, willingness to take on expensive contracts could net a better player as well.

While KC also needs pitching, again it is doubtful they hand over Butler for Doubront plus. Doubront has basically the same trade value as very similar pitcher Sean Marshall, who was dealt for Travis Wood and Dave Sappelt. If we had to find an equivalent hitter to equalize Wood to, a better match might be Dayan Viciedo or Lucas Duda. I am not saying the Sox need to acquire Viciedo, Duda or Karstens. But that is probably the upper limit in these deals.

Actually a Viciedo – Doubront swap might not be so bad. He needs to work on that plate discipline though.

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In response to TrotterNixon's comment:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2013.html

In response to hill55's comment:

In response to TitleTown11's comment:

In response to notin's comment:

Wow, hard to see Anibal being paid that much, but anything is possible. I would pass if that was the price personally. In general, I don't mind seeing the Sox pay the salary as long as they limit the years. So if they can add Sanchez for under 4 years, I'm in.

As for the trades - though I'm a fan of the minor league system and I keep tabs on some players, I'm no expert. I'll be the first to admit they could be on the light side. However, I believe the targets are correct. Both are good players, but both are available. I think both could be acquired without giving up the Bs. Doubront for Butler is a start, it just needs to get supplemented properly. The Anderson trade needs some reworking.

Trade: Brett Anderson - 25 - $5.75M (J. Saltalamacchia, D. Britton, B. Jacobs for Anderson)

I doubt Oakland wants Salty for 1 year and a nice arb raise due. They do need a catcher, so I think they would go for: Lava, Tazawa and Vinicio or Lava, Britton and Lin (SS).

Didn't the Astros pick up Lin off waivers?

I assume he is NOT Jeremy Lin of the Houston Rockets.  LOL

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Brett Anderson would be a fine addition to the Red Sox.  

Didn't the Astros pick up Lin off waivers?

Previously, we had 2 Lins.

An OF'er and a SS.

We DFA'd the OF'er, I think.

I'd prefer to hang onto Tazawa personally over Britton, but either way is no deal breaker. I am definitely hesitant to give up Lavarnway in any deal as he is the #3 catcher is my scenario and there is a steep drop off to #4. I think if the Sox paid Salty's entire salary and added an extra prospect - Beane would consider.

In response to TitleTown11's comment:

I'm not sure the A's value one year of Sakty even if we pay most of his salary. They's want Lava or possibly Swihart. I wouldn't be surprised if Swihart turns out better or has higher trade value.