Re: Multi-Year Contracts of the Epstein Age -How did they work out?
posted at 6/18/2011 1:46 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Multi-Year Contracts of the Epstein Age -How did they work out?
[QUOTE]I've been fighting this battle ever since WAR/UZR became the new popular stats. I'm surprised Moonslav, who's posts are often good, hasn't come to their defense yet. Everything, well, almost everything about both stats are completely arbitrary. I rarely use WAR as a measuring stick but to say it iscompletely arbitrary is short-sighted. It is a metric that tries to includ many aspects of the game, not just one. It has serious flaws, but so do the people who want to use just BA, or OPS or Fldg % to make definitive judgements. For WAR...who decides what a replacement player is worth? How do you figure what any single player is worth in terms of wins in such a team oriented game as baseball? Is a replacement player on the Sox the same as a replacement player on the Pirates? It sounds like you don't even understand how WAR works, yet you bash it. And UZR? OH my god, let's draw a completely arbitrary circle around what someone has decided is the territory a fielder SHOULD cover. What?! And fielding percentage is based on one persons "completely arbitrary" judgemet call on what is an error or not. Range factor mean nothing to you. You'd rather have a SS make no errors and 200 plays a season, than one who makes 20 errors, but makes 400 plays a season. UZR also has serious flaws and is often used wrongly by posters on this site. I'll take a 3 year UZR rating over the 3 year Fldg% stat everyday of the week to decide who is a better fielder.
Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
From fangraphs, meaning of WAR: “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their
bench, how much value would the team be losing?”
And then:Offensive players –
(which express offensive and defensive value in runs above average) and add them together. Add in a positional adjustment, since some positions are tougher to play than others, and then convert the numbers so that they’re not based on league average, but on replacement level (which is the value a team would lose if they had to replace that player with a “replacement” player – a minor leaguer or someone from the waiver wire). Convert the run value to wins (10 runs = 1 win) and voila, finished!
Still totally arbitrary. So, in determining Scutaro's WAR, we look at Lowrie I'd assume. But now to figure Lowrie's WAR, we look at Scutaro? Or Iglesias? Does it take into account blue chippers who are probably better than the starter right now? I understand how it works quite well, I just don't see any real value in it. wRaa is another biased stat. It's comparable to RBI, weighted heavily towards middle of the order hitters. And UZR is far too arbitrary for my liking. So you take two metrics I don't see much value in, throw in some more confusion, divide by something arbitrarily decided by a mathemetician, and...voila? No thanks. Talk about reinventing the wheel.
There are no stats you can look at to determine a player's worth without watching said player. They can give you an idea, but the eye test is the end all, be all. It's easy to identify a good fielder when you see one (Ellsbury), and it's easy to identify a hitter who doesn't provide much (Drew) beyond artificially inflated metrics.
There's no need to try and combine all this nonsense, as I said before, for 100 years fans had no problem identifying good, bad, average or other players, but now people are trying to be smarter than everyone else and it just doesn't work.
I can't wait for people to apply this to football, and talk about a LBs UZR, or a RBs WAR. No, they won't, for some reason the geeks (I don't mean that in an offensive way at all, I consider myself a stat geek) flock to baseball.
It's impossible to find a stat to compare players across the board when the face different pitchers, play in different ballparks, hit in different spots in widely different lineups...it's like trying to predict when and where lightning will strike. You can punch in all these numbers, trends, stats, weather conditions, elevation, humidity, whatever you want. It doesn''t work.
As far as UZR...I'd rather not look at it. What about the SS who plays on a team with longer IF grass, and has mostly Lowe-type grounball pitchers? At the end of the year, he may have 100 more chances than the guy with FAR greater range. Fldg% is only good for figuring what the guy will do if he gets to it. I don't want the SS who gets to everything, and throws it into the 3rd row either. Again, eye test. I watch Jeter and see he has no range. I watched Pokey Reese and saw him get to things I didn't think possible. You have to watchm take your heads out of the textbooks and watch the f r i g g i n games.