My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    My guess is we will have more players not reaching my projections than exceeding them... some by injury, some by decline. 

    I'm most worried about Bard as a starter, Salty as a FT game-caller, Youk's and Buch's health, and Bailey's as well.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    I'm hoping the Sox use Aviles in the outfield during Crawfords absences. Giving Iggy the opportunity to play SS at least until Crawford returns. A move that would make a lot of sense, even more so if the 4th and 5th starters are Cook,Silva or even Padilla. (pitch to contact pitchers)

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from WesternOregon. Show WesternOregon's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    Moonie...the Sox are going to score 100 more runs than last year? Really?

    Cody Ross 25 dingers?
    Kevin Youkilis playing more than 120 games?
    Jacoby Ellsbury another MVP campaign?
    David Ortiz hitting .309?

    ...from your pen to God's ears!

    All possible.

    Which squarely assumes that the Sox hopes ride on their arms.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from WE5NUTS. Show WE5NUTS's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    Papi is 47???
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections:
    [QUOTE]Papi is 47???
    Posted by WE5NUTS[/QUOTE]

    Yes. They just found his birth certificate.

    (Ooooops!)
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections:
    [QUOTE]Moonie...the Sox are going to score 100 more runs than last year? Really? Cody Ross 25 dingers? Kevin Youkilis playing more than 120 games? Jacoby Ellsbury another MVP campaign? David Ortiz hitting .309? ...from your pen to God's ears! All possible. Which squarely assumes that the Sox hopes ride on their arms.
    Posted by WesternOregon[/QUOTE]

    Papi hit .309 last year.

    I have our DH position hitting .275 this year.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In response to "Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections": [QUOTE]My guess is we will have more players not reaching my projections than exceeding them... some by injury, some by decline.  I'm most worried about Bard as a starter, Salty as a FT game-caller, Youk's and Buch's health, and Bailey's as well. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Moon, you know I enjoy reading your posts, I definitely appreciate your breakdowns and usually agree with you...it may be a good thing that two of your biggest concerns (Bard as a starter, Salty) are my 2 biggest candidates for great years...I don't think Lavarnway is ready and everything I've heard about Salty from baseball people is that he has Tek's work ethic, desire, leadership capability, with more raw talent. I'm definitely an optimist, but I think Bard will be a pleasant surprise in the rotation as well and we won't see him in the bullpen ever again...
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections": Moon, you know I enjoy reading your posts, I definitely appreciate your breakdowns and usually agree with you...it may be a good thing that two of your biggest concerns (Bard as a starter, Salty) are my 2 biggest candidates for great years...I don't think Lavarnway is ready and everything I've heard about Salty from baseball people is that he has Tek's work ethic, desire, leadership capability, with more raw talent. I'm definitely an optimist, but I think Bard will be a pleasant surprise in the rotation as well and we won't see him in the bullpen ever again...
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    If I had to bet, I'd say Bard will do very well as a starter. The only reason I am hoping someone wins the 4 slot, is that I am worried about our pen.

    I don't share your optimism on Salty. Hard work is not always enough, but he is now at VTek's age when he became a regular starter, so...



     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    Miguel Montero must be aquired.... or Brian McCann. Then we won't worry about the CA position for another 6 years.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    I think Lava will surprise.

    I think he'd do better than Salty this year, if given the chance. I'd still like to see a Salty, Middlebrooks, Bowden for Floyd & Ohman deal soon.

    We'd be better at C.
    Better at the 4 slot.
    Better with a lefty specialist.
    Better pen by forcing Bard or Aceves out of the rotation.

    (Plus, I like Cecchini and Bogaerts as Youk's replacement better than Middlebrooks anyways... maybe even Coyle too)
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In response to "Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections": [QUOTE]I think Lava will surprise. I think he'd do better than Salty this year, if given the chance. I'd still like to see a Salty, Middlebrooks, Bowden for Floyd & Ohman deal soon. We'd be better at C. Better at the 4 slot. Better with a lefty specialist. Better pen by forcing Bard or Aceves out of the rotation. (Plus, I like Cecchini and Bogaerts as Youk's replacement better than Middlebrooks anyways... maybe even Coyle too) Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] I don't know, Moon...I don't see it at all. It's way too late in the game to tell Bard or Aceves they have no chance to start, especially Bard. I'm a little higher on Middlebrooks than you are, but there is certainly depth at 3rd, as there was in the early 90s when we traded Bagwell....I dont think that package gets it done without Wilson or Ranaudo anyway...I just don't think its necessary to trade for a pitcher at this point...I like Lavarnway, but from everything I've heard, they are definitely committed to Salty at least for this season...
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    I disagree at C, SS, & RF; unrealistic. (300 RBIs from those 3 suspect positions? Really?)

    AGon IMO shall have a higher avg with a few less dingers. I see .320-.370/
    35-40 / 120+

    I agree with the others.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from stan17. Show stan17's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    I believe our lineup has the ability to be absolutely devastating but I too think getting 30 hrs from our catching tandem is overly optimistic. I don't think AGON will see enough good pitches to reach 45 but I hope your right moon. Also if Ross puts up those numbers he will get big money next off-season.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    I don't know, Moon...I don't see it at all. It's way too late in the game to tell Bard or Aceves they have no chance to start, especially Bard. 

    It's my understanding that they were told they'd be given a chance to win a starting role, not that they had it locked up. If a pitcher or two out of Cook, Silva, Mortensen, Doubront, Wilson, or Maine look great in ST, it seems obvious to me to give them the ball every 5th day and strengthen our pen by sliding Bard and Aceves back. If not, then it is what it is.

    I'm a little higher on Middlebrooks than you are, but there is certainly depth at 3rd, as there was in the early 90s when we traded Bagwell....I dont think that package gets it done without Wilson or Ranaudo anyway...

    I'd give Ranaudo instead of Middlebrooks, but probably not both. I also think Floyd is somewhat of a salary dump, much like us getting Bailey and Sweeney for less prospects than their true worth. If nobody is willing to pay Oswalt $5M+, I don't see many teams willing to take on Floyd and Ohman's contracts AND give up several prospects. If the White Sox aren't serious about dumping contracts, then yes, my offer is not enough.

    I just don't think its necessary to trade for a pitcher at this point...I like Lavarnway, but from everything I've heard, they are definitely committed to Salty at least for this season...

    I realize this, but am giving my own opinion. I hope Salty proves me wrong. I was not at all impressed with his defense. His good arm fooled those who only look at CS% to guage a catcher's defensive skillset. His CERA related numbers were horrible compared to VTek. He broke down in August after being rested more than any other starting catcher in MLB except 1. (VTek had the second most PAs of any back-up catcher in MLB last year.)

    I'm not saying Lava will be better than Salty defensively, but I don't see him being able to be much worse. I see him as being a much greater offensive threat, but more importantly, trading Salty while his stock is high, brings us help in high need areas, while not losing anything (or much at worse) at the cathcer position.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    I disagree at C, SS, & RF; unrealistic. (300 RBIs from those 3 suspect positions? Really?)

    We got 29 dingers and 96 RBIs from our catcher last year. Salty should improve, and if Bobby V uses a L-R platoon, instead of persoanl caddy's, Shoppach can give us great numbers vs LHPs. (And, Salty's numbers will be better with less PAs vs LHPs and more vs RHPs.)

    I realize I am going out on a limb with Ross. He has not had great numbers for a couple of years while playing mostly in huge parks. Give him every start vs LHPs and about 40% vs selected RHPs and i do think we may see awesome numbers for only about 450 PAs. Sweeney vs LHPs is like night and day than vs RHPs. Used correctly, as I think Bobby V will, he will do great in limited duty.

    SS is a gamble, and I'm actually hoping we do much worse on offense at SS than my projections. That hope will come true when Iggy is named the starter.

    AGon IMO shall have a higher avg with a few less dingers. I see .320-.370/
    35-40 / 120+

    Fair enough.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections:
    [QUOTE]I believe our lineup has the ability to be absolutely devastating but I too think getting 30 hrs from our catching tandem is overly optimistic. I don't think AGON will see enough good pitches to reach 45 but I hope your right moon. Also if Ross puts up those numbers he will get big money next off-season.
    Posted by stan17[/QUOTE]

    We got 26 catcher HRs last year as Salty and Vtek ran out of gas.

    If Papi, Youk, and Ross hit well behind AGon, he will see enough good pitches to crank even 50.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In response to "Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections": [QUOTE]I don't know, Moon...I don't see it at all. It's way too late in the game to tell Bard or Aceves they have no chance to start, especially Bard.  It's my understanding that they were told they'd be given a chance to win a starting role, not that they had it locked up. If a pitcher or two out of Cook, Silva, Mortensen, Doubront, Wilson, or Maine look great in ST, it seems obvious to me to give them the ball every 5th day and strengthen our pen by sliding Bard and Aceves back. If not, then it is what it is. I'm a little higher on Middlebrooks than you are, but there is certainly depth at 3rd, as there was in the early 90s when we traded Bagwell....I dont think that package gets it done without Wilson or Ranaudo anyway... I'd give Ranaudo instead of Middlebrooks, but probably not both. I also think Floyd is somewhat of a salary dump, much like us getting Bailey and Sweeney for less prospects than their true worth. If nobody is willing to pay Oswalt $5M+, I don't see many teams willing to take on Floyd and Ohman's contracts AND give up several prospects. If the White Sox aren't serious about dumping contracts, then yes, my offer is not enough. I just don't think its necessary to trade for a pitcher at this point...I like Lavarnway, but from everything I've heard, they are definitely committed to Salty at least for this season... I realize this, but am giving my own opinion. I hope Salty proves me wrong. I was not at all impressed with his defense. His good arm fooled those who only look at CS% to guage a catcher's defensive skillset. His CERA related numbers were horrible compared to VTek. He broke down in August after being rested more than any other starting catcher in MLB except 1. (VTek had the second most PAs of any back-up catcher in MLB last year.) I'm not saying Lava will be better than Salty defensively, but I don't see him being able to be much worse. I see him as being a much greater offensive threat, but more importantly, trading Salty while his stock is high, brings us help in high need areas, while not losing anything (or much at worse) at the cathcer position. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Good points, Moon, but I don't see any way Bard doesn't start the season in the rotation. He'd have to be brutal this spring not to be given a spot to start the season and I don't see that happening. Even if some of the guys you mentioned have better springs, I don't see them moving Bard back to the bullpen. He doesn't want to be there. As far as Lavarnway goes, I'd like to see him develop more in AAA, but he may very well be the starting catcher by season's end if Salty struggles. I just don't see them moving kids and taking on salary for a guy who would likely be a 5th starter, especially when they have many viable candidates in house at this point. If Kenny Williams is smart, he hangs onto Floyd until the deadline. The White Sox could actually be competitive in the Central if a lot of things break right for them...
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    m
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    In Response to Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections": Good points, Moon, but I don't see any way Bard doesn't start the season in the rotation. He'd have to be brutal this spring not to be given a spot to start the season and I don't see that happening. Even if some of the guys you mentioned have better springs, I don't see them moving Bard back to the bullpen. He doesn't want to be there. 

    I think bard will be in the rotation. It's probably a 90% probability. I'm sure of one of the guys I mentioned do well, it will be Aceves that goes to the pen over bard. 

    It's my hope and opinion that if 2 guys do well, Bard would go to the pen. We need him there. I know Ben does not share my position, and I'm fine with that. I wasn't saying Bard would be sent to the pen because of a poor ST, but rather because two guys like Padilla and Cook having great springs would create a situation where we could have the best of both worlds.

    As far as Lavarnway goes, I'd like to see him develop more in AAA, but he may very well be the starting catcher by season's end if Salty struggles. 

    I think we do this too much with our top prospects. I do see the reaoning to hold onto Salty until we know Lava is for real.


    I just don't see them moving kids and taking on salary for a guy who would likely be a 5th starter, especially when they have many viable candidates in house at this point. 

    His numbers show he is a top 14 or 20 AL starter. That's #2 quality. Just because he's our #5 starter doesn't mean he's not helpful. He'll still get 30+ starts just like our #1.

    If Kenny Williams is smart, he hangs onto Floyd until the deadline. The White Sox could actually be competitive in the Central if a lot of things break right for them...
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    I can't see why he's not worth more now than in july, but sometimes it seems to work out that way.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    m
     
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    m
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

     AVGOBPSLGHRRBISB
    Jacoby Ellsbury - CF0.3130.4050.489238343
    Dustin Pedroia - 2B0.3250.4130.458218520
    Adrian Gonzalez - 1B0.3250.4560.587421341
    Kevin Youkilis - 3B0.2950.4030.513321073
    David Ortiz - DH0.2880.4130.51528970
    Cody Ross - LF0.2560.3350.43513672
    Mike Sweeney - RF0.2820.3350.4036428
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C0.2760.3530.41318632
    Mike Aviles - SS0.2850.3280.3687308
     
    Kelly Shoppach - C0.2730.3350.3898301
    Darnell McDonald - RF0.2350.2890.3314242
    Ryan Lavarnway - C/DH0.2540.3130.4583200
    ** Carl Carwford - LF0.2750.3350.413186325
    Nick Punto - UTIL0.2710.3300.3651225


    These are mine... roughly...
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

     IPERAWLSOSV
    Jon Lester206.03.03217235-
    Josh Beckett192.23.531612178-
    Clay Bucholz172.23.13179153-
    Daniel Bard141.03.35129163-
    Aaron Cook103.14.136857-
    Alfredo Aceves113.22.887298-
    Vincent Padilla101.13.896787-
    Franklin Morales53.23.543447-
    Matt Albers47.23.982235-
    Felix Doubront37.14.131220-
    Mark Melancon58.13.0331535
    Andrew Bailey63.22.56417343
     
      

    Here is my pitching staff predictions.  This is based on current expected rosters.

    Sox will win around 98 games.. yay~
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections:
    [QUOTE]  AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB Jacoby Ellsbury - CF 0.313 0.405 0.489 23 83 43 Dustin Pedroia - 2B 0.325 0.413 0.458 21 85 20 Adrian Gonzalez - 1B 0.325 0.456 0.587 42 134 1 Kevin Youkilis - 3B 0.295 0.403 0.513 32 107 3 David Ortiz - DH 0.288 0.413 0.515 28 97 0 Cody Ross - LF 0.256 0.335 0.435 13 67 2 Mike Sweeney - RF 0.282 0.335 0.403 6 42 8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C 0.276 0.353 0.413 18 63 2 Mike Aviles - SS 0.285 0.328 0.368 7 30 8   Kelly Shoppach - C 0.273 0.335 0.389 8 30 1 Darnell McDonald - RF 0.235 0.289 0.331 4 24 2 Ryan Lavarnway - C/DH 0.254 0.313 0.458 3 20 0 ** Carl Carwford - LF 0.275 0.335 0.413 18 63 25 Nick Punto - UTIL 0.271 0.330 0.365 1 22 5 These are mine... roughly...
    Posted by seannybboi[/QUOTE]

    I'd love to see 5 guys with an over .400 OBP!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: My 2012 Positional Sox Projections : I'd love to see 5 guys with an over .400 OBP!
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Well Moon.. you almost had like 4.5
     

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