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    My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 1:21 AM EDT

    Here are my annual Red Sox projections.  I don’t pretend to be an expert on projections, but I have been doing this since the mid 70’s. I like to see how close I get to what the players end up doing. I have been wrong many times, and very far off several times. I get a lot of criticism for my projections, but at least I put them out there, and don’t come back in September or October and say “I said _____ would happen”, but there is no record of it. 

     

    Stat Notes: I got my stats from fangraphs and baseball reference. Although I weigh OPS as the most important stat, I recognize that OBP is more important to generating runs than Slg%. My numbers are based on no injuries and no call-ups. I am assuming Iggy and Lava are in AAA. I know they will probably get some PAs in MLB this year, but I am keeping it simple here. These are my recently adjusted numbers.

     

    The Boston Red Sox 2012 Projections: 

    Catcher: 

    MLB '11: .245/.314/.390/.704

    Sox '11: .229/.291/.446/.737

     

    2011:

    Salty (384)  .236  16  56  (.289/.452/.741)

    VTek (250)  .221  11  36 (.300/.423/.723)

     

    Although the Sox placed 10th in catcher OPS, we were 24th in OBP (5th in Slg%). Our catchers hit 29 HRs (1 away from 2nd place) and had 100 RBIs (2nd in MLB). A pretty productive season overall, even though there was a sharp dip in September.

    With the departure of VTek (who actually had a higher OBP than Salty), one might expect a decline in overall offense from the catcher position this year.  However, Tito never used a L-R catcher platoon last year, but instead used the personal caddy method. I expect that Bobby V will give Salty the chance to catch everyone and stick more to the L-R methodology. If he does this, we will see better numbers from Salty, since he hits RHPs much better (2011: .247/.304/.481/.786), and better numbers vs LHPs, since Shoppach hits LHPs very well: 

    (Career: .274/.373/.536/.909).

     

    2012 Projections:

    Salty (450) .250  15  60  (.300/.470/.770)

    Shop (200) .250  10  25  (.340/.430/.770)

    Sox:  (650) .250  25  85 (.315/.455/.770)  +.033

     

    First Base:

    MLB '11: .263/.338/.439/.778

    Sox '11: .329/.402/.541/.944

     

    2011:

    AGon (715) .338  27  117 (.410/.548/.957)

     

    AGon had a great season, but I expect this year to be even better. We placed 4th in 1B OPS last season. I expect less BA, but more power at 1B this year. I know AGon will not get all the PAs at 1B, but for easier calculations, I will set it up this way. Here' my 2012 projection:

     

    AGon/Sox: (720) .300  45  130  (.410/.590/1.000) +.056

     

    Second base:

    MLB '11: .255/.316/.378/.694

    Sox '11: .308/.388/.474/.862

     

    2011:

    Pedroia (731) .307  21  91 (.387/.474/.861)

     

    We had the best OPS in MLB at 2B last year. I expect the same in 2012. Go Pedey, Go!

     

    Pedey/Sox: (740) .300  20  100  (.395/.475/.870) +.008

     

    Third Base:

    MLB '11: .254/.314/.391/.705

    Sox '11: .270/.362/.449/.812

     

    2011:

    Youk (517) .258/.373/.459/.833

    Lowrie (133 @ 3B) .275/.326/.433/.759

     

    This is a tough position to call this year. Since I am assuming 100% health, I am going to project a big improvement here, but I will not give Youk all the PAs. Youk had seen his OPS improve every season of his career until last year's steep declining. I will put him closer to his 2010 numbers than 2011's (I realize Youk is more likely to have 450 PAs than 600, but these projections are base on 100% health. I used Punto here, but we may see Aviles, especially if Iggy plays SS):

     

    Youk:   (600) .300  20  100  (.400/.540/.940)

    Punto: (100) .250     0    15  (.325/.325/.650)

    Sox:     (700) .290  20  115  (.390/.510/.900) +.088

     

    Short Stop:

    MLB '11: .258/.314/.370/.684

    Sox '11: .279/.330/.401/.730

     

    2011:

    Scutaro: (445) .299  7  54  (.358/.423/.781)

    Lowrie (@SS): (187) .238/.278/.360/.639

     

    With the departure of Scooty, this is a tough call. Personally, I'd like to see Iggy as the FT SS, and we'd see a huge drop in SS OPs if we did, but I am going to give Aviles the nod at SS this year with help from Punto (I won't count Iggy). Here are my 2012 SS projections:

     

    Aviles: (550) .290  10  60 (.325/.415/.740)

    Punto: (100)  .250  0  15 (.325/.325/.650)  

    Sox: (650) .290  10  75  (.330/.400/.710) -.020

     

    Left Field:

    MLB '11: .256/.320/.409/.729

    Sox '11: .258/.304/.419/.723

     

    2011:

    Crawford: (538) .255  11  56  (.289/.405/.694)

    Reddick (63) & DMac (50): .260  4  13  (.330/.490/.820)

     

    I'm expecting CC to return to about somewhere between his career norm and his most recent years in TB. My hope is that Bobby V sits CC vs tough lefties, but I doubt that happens. CC should get his normal rest vs lefties and will miss a few games at the start of the season. It's another tough call, but here it is (I am assuming almost all of DMac's PAs are vs LHPs):

     

    Crawford: (600) .290  12  85  (.350/.460/.810)

    Dar. Mac: (100) .275     6  15  (.340/.470/.810)

    Sox LF Total:     .285  18  100  (.345/.465/.800) +.077

     

    Center Field:

    MLB '11: .261/.325/.406/.731

    Sox '11: .316/.371/.548/.918

     

    2011:

    Ellsbury: (729) .321  32  105  (.376/.552/.928)

     

    I am projecting that Jacoby will come close to his 2011 numbers.

     

    Sox: (770)  .320  30  100  (.380/.530/.910)  -.018

     

    Right Field:

    MLB '11: .263/.335/.429/.765

    Sox '11: .233/.299/.353/.652

     

    2011:

    Drew (270)  .231  4  22 (.322/.316/.638)

    Redd (192) .257  3  13  (.302/.374/.676)

    DMac (86)  .256  4  14  (.314/.487/.801)

    Cam  (84)  .171   3    8  (.226/.316/.542)

     

    2011 saw a big mix of players in RF. The .652 OPS in RF was 113 points below the league average. Since RF has become one of the best hitting positions in MLb of late, this is totally unacceptable. Many will disagree with Ben on not assigning a top priority status to getting a RH'd slugger RF'er, but I think those posters will be surprised by the steep improvement in our RF production this year. Cody Ross has incredible numbers vs LHPs and not bad numbers vs RHPs as well, and Sweeney does very well vs righties. My guess is that Bobby V will play Ross vs all lefties and about half the RHPs that Ross has a good history against. I know many here do not like or are not familar with successful platoons, but I see this working out nicely for the Sox. Here are some telling numbers:

     

    Career:

    Ross (per 630 PA): .265  23  88  (.323/.456/.779)

    vs LHP:  .282  38  120  (.349/.563/.912)

    vs RHP:  .253  18    75  (.313/.414/.727)

    Sweeney (per 630 PAs)

    vs RHPs: .296  6  70  (.352/.402/.754) 

     

    If we can give Ross 220 PAs vs LHPs and 200 vs RHPs, and give Sweeney 220 vs RHPs and 30 vs LHPs, their overall numbers might look like this:

    C Ross (420) .270  25  90  (.335/.490/.825)

    Sween (250) .290    2  25  (.340/.390/.730)

    Total Sox: (670) .280  27  115  (.335/.440/.775) +.123

     

    Designated Hitter:

    MLB '11: .268/.342/.431/.773

    Sox '11: .308/.394/.531/.925

     

    2011:

    D Ortiz: (605) .309  29  96  (.398/.554/.953)

     

    Papi turns 37 in November. He put up some nice numbers in 2011, although his RBI total was a bit low for a line-up like the Sox had last year. I'm going to project a drop off in 2012:

     

    Sox: (680)  .275  25  120  (.375/.525/.900) -.025

     

    Overall, it looks like we will see some big gains at some slots, and just a few positions where we stay about even of lose ground:

    RF: +.123

    3B: +.088

    LF: +.077

    1B: +.056

    C:   +.033

    2B: +.008

    CF: -.018

    SS: -.020

    DH: -.025

     

    Overall: ~ + .030 in OPS

     

    I realize my numbers are based on some shaky ground, such as no injuries and projected platoon L-R splits, but I do feel like our offense has a strong potential to improve over 2011. RF should easily improve, while guessing the Youk and CC's improvements are a bit more speculative. Losses at SS, DH and CF might be much larger than I showed, but I find it hard to believe our overall OPS will be lower this year than 2011. I hope we can be more balanced and consistent, but that is a hard thing to predict.

     

    With some injuries, we can probably expect just about the same offense as last year, but I still think the gain in RF and LF will more than offset possible declines in CF and at SS & DH.

     

    Now for the pitching numbers:

     

    This is a difficult task to attempt with so many unknown factors involved, especially with the possibilities of Bard and Aceves moving from starter to reliever and back.

     

    First, a look at what our returning pitchers did in 2011 and what we lost from 2011 and will be replacing:

     

    Not returning: 

                    IP    H     ER  BB

    Lackey  160  203  114  56

    Wake     155 163    88   47

    Paps        64   50    21   10

    Wheel      49   47    24     8

    Bedard    38   41    17    18

    Weiland   25  29    21     12

    B Jenks   16  22    11     13

    Okajima    8    7       4      5

    Williams   8    10     6      5

    Hottovy    4     4      3      3

    T Miller     2     0      0      0

    D Reyes    2     2     3      2

    D Mac       1     1      2      2

    Total:   532  579   314   181   5.31 ERA /  1.43 WHIP

     

    Returning:

    Beckett    193   146   62   52

    Lester      192  166   74    75

    Aceves     114   84   33    42

    Buch          83   76   32    31

    Bard           73   46   27    24

    A Miller      65   77   40    41

    Albers        65   62   34    31

    Dice-K        37  32    22    23

    Morales     32   30    13    11

    Atchison   30   31    11     6

    Bowden     20  19     9    11

    Doubront   10   12    7      8

    R Hill           8     3     0      3

    Tazawa       3     3      2     1

    Total:     925  787  366  319  3.55 ERA  /  1.20 WHIP

     

    My guess is we will replace the departing 532 innings with this:

    Cook           90

    Buch         +90

    Doub         +90

    Bard          +70

    Melancon    70

    A Bailey       60

    Dice-K        +60

    Padilla          20

    Aceves       +10

    Tazawa       +20

    Morales      +20

    Bowden     +10

    R.Hill          +10

    Beckett      +10

    Lester        +10

    Atch           -20

    A Miller      -65

     

    I can’t help but think these guys can improve on a 5.31 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP

     

    Here’s my breakdown of the 2012 Sox pitching staff (again assuming no new injuries and Dice-K returning in June)

                            (IP)    GS  W-L   ERA   WHIP 

    S1  Beckett    (205)  32   20-5   2.70    1.00

    S2  Lester      (205)  32   18-8   3.30    1.15

    S3  Buch        (170)  30   16-9  3.50    1.20

    S4  Doub        (100)  18    8-6   4.50    1.35

    S5  Bard         (140)  17    8-5   4.25    1.20

    S6  Dice-K      (100)  16    7-5   4.25    1.40

    S7  Cook         (90)   13    4-4    4.75   1.40

    S8  Padilla       (20)    4     1-2    5.25   1.45

                                       ERA / WHIP

    C    A.  Bailey   (60)  2.75  / 1.00

    R2  Melancon  (70)   3.00  / 1.20

    R3  Aceves     (125)  2.80 / 1.10

    R4  Morales     (50)   3.80/  1.20

    R5  Tazawa      (25)   3.90/  1.25

    R6  Bowden     (30)   4.00/  1.30

    R7  R. Hill         (20)   4.20/  1.30

     

    OVERALL SOX 2012 PROJECTION:

    With no new injuries: 102-60

    With normal injuries:   98-64

    With projected injuries: 95-67

     

    My Projection: 95 – 67

     

    I project we barely win the wildcard with something like this:

     

    NYY  97-65    TEX  92-70    DET  90-72

    BOS  95-67    ANA 94-68

    TB     93-69

     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 3:19 PM EDT

    It should be a very close race for the wild card.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 4:39 PM EDT

    In Response to My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    NYY  97-65    TEX  92-70    DET  90-72 BOS  95-67    ANA 94-68 TB     93-69
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]


    moon, I'm being optimistic about the Sox, even though I think we have a ton of question marks.   I think we finish 94-68 which is barely enough to win our division.  This team has something to prove and may just be the best team when all is said and done with more youth, speed and focus. 

    I'm going with the Yankees coming in 2nd place even though some experts project their staff to be vastly improved and a 1rst place finish.   I'm not sure Kuroda will handle the pressure any more than AJ did but the Yankee bats should help.   I also think this is the year the Yanks find out whether Nova is for real and if Hughes can really help, even though Phil had a decent ST.   I also have my doubts with Pineda and Garcia being major factors.  CC should once again be the ancor but "like Boston" there are a ton of question marks on this team, not to mention old age.  I'm calling the Yankees a 93-69 team that could miss the playoffs.  Pettitte may need to be a factor on this staff to push them any further.    

    Last year I predicted Tampa would miss the playoffs even with their solid pitching.   This probably would have happened if our team didn't fall flat on their face in September.  I didn't like Tampa's offense last season and feel its even weaker this time around.  Once again Maddon and their pitching should allow them to hang around but they come in 3rd place at 91-71. It wouldn't surprise me to see them miss the 90 win mark unless they grab another bat. I think a couple guys had career years last season but will level off this year and Damons leadership will be missed.   
     
    Final standings:

    Texas 94-68
    Boston 94-68
    Angels 93-69
    Yankees 93-69
    Tigers 92-70
    Tampa 91-71
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 5:01 PM EDT

    Great read as always, Moon. If everyone has the seasons you predict (particularly the SP), this will be an excellent team. 
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 5:04 PM EDT

    Beckett is not going to have jaw dropping #s like that; for starters, this is his "even" year. And 30 HRs from the catchers? How many teams did that last yr, with far better tandems? And 115 RBIs from the problematic RF position? Predicting more wins than the Yankees is denial ridden, and contrary to historical data, even last yr when the Sox were the favorites. Many of the others are also on the slightly optimistic side. Oh well; spring hopes eternal.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 8:14 PM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    Great read as always, Moon. If everyone has the seasons you predict (particularly the SP), this will be an excellent team. 
    Posted by Flapjack07

    Remember these numbers are for an injury free year... not likely.

     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 8:16 PM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    Great read as always, Moon. If everyone has the seasons you predict (particularly the SP), this will be an excellent team. 
    Posted by Flapjack07

    Remember these numbers are for an injury free year... not likely.

     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 8:17 PM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections : Remember these numbers are for an injury free year... not likely.
    Posted by moonslav59

    Of course. But I'm all for a little optimism this time of year.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 8:26 PM EDT

    Beckett is not going to have jaw dropping #s like that; for starters, this is his "even" year. 

    Time to break the cycle.

    And 30 HRs from the catchers? How many teams did that last yr, with far better tandems? 

    Dude, the Sox had 29 HRs and 96 RBIs from our catchers last year. (BTW, I had adjusted the Salty numbers, but forgot to bring the total down to 25 HRs. I went back and edited it.)

    And 115 RBIs from the problematic RF position? 

    Maybe 120+.

    Predicting more wins than the Yankees is denial ridden, and contrary to historical data, even last yr when the Sox were the favorites. 

    I predicted the Yanks with more wins, so maybe your vision is faulty.

    Many of the others are also on the slightly optimistic side. Oh well; spring hopes eternal.

    For Yankee fans too.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 11:42 PM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    Beckett is not going to have jaw dropping #s like that; for starters, this is his "even" year.  Time to break the cycle. And 30 HRs from the catchers? How many teams did that last yr, with far better tandems?  Dude, the Sox had 29 HRs and 96 RBIs from our catchers last year. (BTW, I had adjusted the Salty numbers, but forgot to bring the total down to 25 HRs. I went back and edited it.) And 115 RBIs from the problematic RF position?  Maybe 120+. Predicting more wins than the Yankees is denial ridden, and contrary to historical data, even last yr when the Sox were the favorites.  I predicted the Yanks with more wins, so maybe your vision is faulty. Many of the others are also on the slightly optimistic side. Oh well; spring hopes eternal. For Yankee fans too.
    Posted by moonslav59


    I was wrong about your win projections, misread it, and apologize. The Catcher HRs are now within the realm of possibility.  Otherwise, would you like to place a wager on the Win Total, Beckett #s, and RF RBIs? It doesn't have to be monetary.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/1/2012 11:49 PM EDT

    I think you're a liottle low on Aviles and a little high on Ells, but overall an excellent analysis.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 12:07 AM EDT

    Very impressive work, Moon.  Thanks for this.

    The fun part is the other intervening variables that affect performance like injuries, chemistry, fried chicken, and beer (OK, just kidding on the last two).


    I see no middle of the road with this team.  It's either the playoffs or a bust year, and I mean big time bust.

    We've seen it all........what will we see this year?

     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 2:25 AM EDT

    Another fine job, Moon.  As usual ....  Very enjoyable read and lots of good hard work put in.

    only thing was when you mentioned the 70s I started thinking about my4 inch platform lshoes and the mega flares ......only time I was 6'4"....




    :o)
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 5:03 AM EDT

    Moon as always nice work, not unlike all preseason predictions your's are subject to scrutiny. I'm sure you'll get your share of those trying to poke holes in them. Here's what I find somewhat ammusing, is those that have already thrown in the towel and forget that we've been a 90 win team for most of this decade and I see no reason why this years team, can't win 90 plus again.

    Assuming health is the key for all teams too include the Yankees & Rays. If the Sox get 90 plus starts and 600 inning out of Lester, Beckett & Buchholz we'll be in the mix all year. The same can be said for the Yankees (Sabathia, Kuroda & Nova) and the Rays (Shields, Price & Hellickson). Offensively clearly the key guy for us is Youk, his return to form along with healthy and productive season from Gonzalez, Pedrioa, Ellsbury and Ortiz will keep our offense among the best in the game, if Crawford does as expected and plays to the back of his baseball card. Our offense will once again be in the top 2 or 3 in runs scored. Suffice to say, that If the Yanks were to lose Arod for an extended period (not out of the realm of probability given his recent track record of health) or the Rays Longoria (who has also lost time due to injury) then both came back "early" and tried to play through, not one but two injuries (which youk did last year). They too will struggle over the long haul and thier respective teams would be hard pressed to replace thier bats. No so much in NY, but losing Longoria would be a death nell for Tampa's offense.

    As for your predictions...

    I'd say that the only number that jumps out at me is the 20-5 for Beckett. While he certainly has in in him and after last years debacle, he should be "motivated" to quiet the critics. It's a little optomistic. More realistic is somewhere in the 16 to 18 wins with 8 or 9 losses. I see both he and Lester in much the same light. Both will enter the season with a bit of a chip, and in this instance. I see it as a good thing. Much like Youk with our offense, a return to health and a solid season by Buchholz will help to solidify our pitching staff and take the pressure off of Bard & Dobrount in the 4-5 slots. 

    In terms of the race for the East it's a three horse race. The Yankees are the favorites, though based on depth of the rotations of the three (Sox, Rays & Yanks) and the bullpens. I'd give a slight edge to the Rays.

    The Wildcard this season, more so than in any recent times, is no longer the eminent domain of the ALE. The Rangers & Angels are both legit 95 wins teams and so too are the Tigers in the central. I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland makes a strong run at them in the central and you can never dismiss the Twins.

    On paper in terms of the quality if the teams overall rosters if remove the division restraints...heading into 2012 season I see the "power rankings" in this order
    The Contenders....
    1) Angels...Deep rotation, plus Puljos plus 40 games against Seattle & Oakland = 100 wins
    2) Rangers...pitching-offense-been there done that = 95 wins
    3) Rays.......Pitching-Pitching-Pitching = 93 plus wins
    3) Yankees..Offense-Bullpen-resources & CC = 93 plus wins
    3) Tigers.....Starting pitching-plus Fielder & Cabrera = 93 plus wins
    3) Red Sox...Offesne-pitching-plus Youk plus resources = 93 plus wins

    The Spoilers....
    7) Cleveland..Deep pitching staff, good lineup = 90 wins 
    8) Toronto...don't sleep on these guys they'll be a tough out..85 wins
    9) Minnesota..M & M and petigree of orgnaization = 85 wins
    10) Kansas City Royals could this be the year that they finally turn the corner and give what is one of the best fan bases in the game a reason to go to the park on June 1st...80 plus wins and a tough out...

    It's getting late early "Wait til next year"
    11) White Sox could prove to be the swing team trading away valuable assets to a contender.
    12) Baltimore...Showalter keeps them grinding all year...but they stll lack the horses to compete in the mightly ALE....
    13) Seattle...Felix and pray that it doesn't rain...
    14) Oakland...time to finally once and for all recognize that Billy Beane ain't all that. Come on man, was it the juice?
     
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 6:33 AM EDT

    Really makes no sense to make predictions based on zero injuries. What a colossal waste of time.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 7:30 AM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    Really makes no sense to make predictions based on zero injuries. What a colossal waste of time.
    Posted by TBINFL


    At last, babe, something you know a lot  about.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 8:13 AM EDT

    For Papi, I don't think that 120 RBI's is a dropoff. That may be one of the league leaders.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 8:37 AM EDT

    I think the BRS fan base should stick to these predictions, becuase the National Pre Season Power rankings are NOT painting the Sox as favorites....of much.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 9:09 AM EDT

    Moon, you are really reaching if you think Doubront is going to win 16 games. I really can't believe he is the #4 starter.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 9:56 AM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    Moon, you are really reaching if you think Doubront is going to win 16 games. I really can't believe he is the #4 starter.
    Posted by jpBsSoxFan


    This is very unlikely; 16 wins is a good # for any pitcher; he may not even be in the rotation by the summer.
     

  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 10:02 AM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    Moon as always nice work, not unlike all preseason predictions your's are subject to scrutiny. I'm sure you'll get your share of those trying to poke holes in them. Here's what I find somewhat ammusing, is those that have already thrown in the towel and forget that we've been a 90 win team for most of this decade and I see no reason why this years team, can't win 90 plus again. Assuming health is the key for all teams too include the Yankees & Rays. If the Sox get 90 plus starts and 600 inning out of Lester, Beckett & Buchholz we'll be in the mix all year. The same can be said for the Yankees (Sabathia, Kuroda & Nova) and the Rays (Shields, Price & Hellickson). Offensively clearly the key guy for us is Youk, his return to form along with healthy and productive season from Gonzalez, Pedrioa, Ellsbury and Ortiz will keep our offense among the best in the game, if Crawford does as expected and plays to the back of his baseball card. Our offense will once again be in the top 2 or 3 in runs scored. Suffice to say, that If the Yanks were to lose Arod for an extended period (not out of the realm of probability given his recent track record of health) or the Rays Longoria (who has also lost time due to injury) then both came back "early" and tried to play through, not one but two injuries (which youk did last year). They too will struggle over the long haul and thier respective teams would be hard pressed to replace thier bats. No so much in NY, but losing Longoria would be a death nell for Tampa's offense. As for your predictions... I'd say that the only number that jumps out at me is the 20-5 for Beckett. While he certainly has in in him and after last years debacle, he should be "motivated" to quiet the critics. It's a little optomistic. More realistic is somewhere in the 16 to 18 wins with 8 or 9 losses. I see both he and Lester in much the same light. Both will enter the season with a bit of a chip, and in this instance. I see it as a good thing. Much like Youk with our offense, a return to health and a solid season by Buchholz will help to solidify our pitching staff and take the pressure off of Bard & Dobrount in the 4-5 slots.  In terms of the race for the East it's a three horse race. The Yankees are the favorites, though based on depth of the rotations of the three (Sox, Rays & Yanks) and the bullpens. I'd give a slight edge to the Rays. The Wildcard this season, more so than in any recent times, is no longer the eminent domain of the ALE. The Rangers & Angels are both legit 95 wins teams and so too are the Tigers in the central. I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland makes a strong run at them in the central and you can never dismiss the Twins. On paper in terms of the quality if the teams overall rosters if remove the division restraints...heading into 2012 season I see the "power rankings" in this order The Contenders.... 1) Angels... Deep rotation , plus Puljos plus 40 games against Seattle & Oakland = 100 wins 2) Rangers...pitching-offense-been there done that = 95 wins 3) Rays.......Pitching-Pitching-Pitching = 93 plus wins 3) Yankees..Offense-Bullpen-resources & CC = 93 plus wins 3) Tigers.....Starting pitching-plus Fielder & Cabrera = 93 plus wins 3) Red Sox...Offesne-pitching-plus Youk plus resources = 93 plus wins The Spoilers.... 7) Cleveland..Deep pitching staff, good lineup = 90 wins  8) Toronto...don't sleep on these guys they'll be a tough out..85 wins 9) Minnesota..M & M and petigree of orgnaization = 85 wins 10) Kansas City Royals could this be the year that they finally turn the corner and give what is one of the best fan bases in the game a reason to go to the park on June 1st...80 plus wins and a tough out... It's getting late early "Wait til next year" 11) White Sox could prove to be the swing team trading away valuable assets to a contender. 12) Baltimore...Showalter keeps them grinding all year...but they stll lack the horses to compete in the mightly ALE.... 13) Seattle...Felix and pray that it doesn't rain... 14) Oakland...time to finally once and for all recognize that Billy Beane ain't all that. Come on man, was it the juice?  
    Posted by Beantowne


    Good post; I don't agree with your spoiler section though (I think Minn is toast, for starters), but, you may be right.
     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 4:56 PM EDT

    I had this somewhere but I think I forgot where I saved them.  Here are my rough predictions for 2012 for fun..

    CC (490AB) .280/.360/.420 20 HRs 85 RBIs 105 R 35 SB
    Pedey (600AB) .310/.390/.430 25HRs 95 RBIs 100 R 20 SB
    Ells (580AB) .310/.380/.450 29 HRs 100 RBIs 110 R 35 SB

    Agon (600AB) .320/.410/.510 43 HRs 130 RBIs 100 R

    Youk (540AB) .270/.380/.450 31 HRs 100 RBIs 90 R

    Papi (560AB) .280/.370/.450 28 HRs 95 RBIs 80 R

    Ross (540AB) .270/.350/.400 22 HRs 85 RBIs 80 R

    Salty (490AB) .250/.320/.430 23 HRs 80 RBIs 70 R

    Aviles (460AB) .270/.320/.390 12 HRs 55 RBIs 70 R


    DMac (150AB) .240/.290/.350 8 HRs 25 RBIs 20 R

    Sweeney (200AB) .250/.300/.350 3 HRs 20 RBIs 20 R

    Shop (150AB) .270/.310/.340 5 HRs 20 RBIs 10 R

    Punto (100AB) .280/.320/.320 0 HR 10 RBIs 15 R


    Lester (35GS) 19-8 230IP/3.30/1.15WHIP/250SO

    Beckett (30GS) 17-7 200IP/2.90/1.00HIP/180SO

    Buch (33GS) 18-8 210SP/3.00/1.20WHIP/180SO

    Doub (20GS) 8-8 130IP/4.10/1.4WHIP/100SO

    Bard (25GS) 13-6 160IP/3.80/1.30WHIP/150SO

    Cook (10GS) 7-5 100IP/4.00/1.40WHIP/60SO/10H

    Padilla (5GS) 4-3 60IP/4.40/1.30WHIP/40SO/10H

    Miller (4GS) 2-4 40IP/4.30/1.50WHIP/30SO/5H

    Morales 30IP/3.50/1.30WHIP/20SO/3H
    Bowden 50IP/3.30/1.20WHIP/30SO/5H
    Melancon 60IP/3.10/1.2WHIP/60SO/15H/10SV
    Bailey 50IP/2.70/1.1WHIP/45SO/30SV

    Final record: 95-67 tied with the Yankees but advantage over H2H matchup and wins the division.. I think we have the bats and arms to win the division IMO.. 

    very roughly...

     

  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/2/2012 8:11 PM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    I had this somewhere but I think I forgot where I saved them.  Here are my rough predictions for 2012 for fun.. CC (490AB) .280/.360/.420 20 HRs 85 RBIs 105 R 35 SB Pedey (600AB) .310/.390/.430 25HRs 95 RBIs 100 R 20 SB Ells (580AB) .310/.380/.450 29 HRs 100 RBIs 110 R 35 SB Agon (600AB) .320/.410/.510 43 HRs 130 RBIs 100 R Youk (540AB) .270/.380/.450 31 HRs 100 RBIs 90 R Papi (560AB) .280/.370/.450 28 HRs 95 RBIs 80 R Ross (540AB) .270/.350/.400 22 HRs 85 RBIs 80 R Salty (490AB) .250/.320/.430 23 HRs 80 RBIs 70 R Aviles (460AB) .270/.320/.390 12 HRs 55 RBIs 70 R DMac (150AB) .240/.290/.350 8 HRs 25 RBIs 20 R Sweeney (200AB) .250/.300/.350 3 HRs 20 RBIs 20 R Shop (150AB) .270/.310/.340 5 HRs 20 RBIs 10 R Punto (100AB) .280/.320/.320 0 HR 10 RBIs 15 R Lester (35GS) 19-8 230IP/3.30/1.15WHIP/250SO Beckett (30GS) 17-7 200IP/2.90/1.00HIP/180SO Buch (33GS) 18-8 210SP/3.00/1.20WHIP/180SO Doub (20GS) 8-8 130IP/4.10/1.4WHIP/100SO Bard (25GS) 13-6 160IP/3.80/1.30WHIP/150SO Cook (10GS) 7-5 100IP/4.00/1.40WHIP/60SO/10H Padilla (5GS) 4-3 60IP/4.40/1.30WHIP/40SO/10H Miller (4GS) 2-4 40IP/4.30/1.50WHIP/30SO/5H Morales 30IP/3.50/1.30WHIP/20SO/3H Bowden 50IP/3.30/1.20WHIP/30SO/5H Melancon 60IP/3.10/1.2WHIP/60SO/15H/10SV Bailey 50IP/2.70/1.1WHIP/45SO/30SV Final record: 95-67 tied with the Yankees but advantage over H2H matchup and wins the division.. I think we have the bats and arms to win the division IMO..  very roughly...
    Posted by seannybboi

    I think if out hitters and top 3 pitchers put up the numbers you project, we would win more than 95 games.

     

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    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/3/2012 5:48 AM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections : Good post; I don't agree with your spoiler section though (I think Minn is toast, for starters), but, you may be right.
    Posted by nhsteven


    NH,
    I agree that Minnesota's pitchng staff might be the worst in thier division...Though with a healthy year from Morneau and a return to form from Mauer, along with the addition of Willingham they'll be a tough out. They have IMHO what amounts to a decent rotation with a coupe guys at the top that will keep them in games but lack that true horse to match up with other teams #1when compared with say Detriot & Cleveland. Which is why I put them in the spoilers section...
     

  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections

    posted at 4/3/2012 8:38 AM EDT

    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections:
    In Response to Re: My 2012 Red Sox Projections : NH, I agree that Minnesota's pitchng staff might be the worst in thier division...Though with a healthy year from Morneau and a return to form from Mauer, along with the addition of Willingham they'll be a tough out. They have IMHO what amounts to a decent rotation with a coupe guys at the top that will keep them in games but lack that true horse to match up with other teams #1when compared with say Detriot & Cleveland. Which is why I put them in the spoilers section...
    Posted by Beantowne

    Plus, they have a good manager.