Re: My Trade Target: Kendry Morales (or Trumbo)
posted at 9/14/2012 11:25 AM EDT
In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
"There is no replacement for talent, and we are seeing that this year"
Actually, the Red Sox had plenty of talent, but stunk. It's not talent, there's plenty of that in MLB. It's how it's constructed and the type of player leadership that is in it.
VMart missed a year, has age and, though short term, an expensive base contract. He would come for nothing but farm scraps and losers like Aviles. Napoli's likely to get a 3 year contract, which should be a no go. If it's two years, that makes some sense.
Without Ortiz, AGon, and now Pedroia, we are getting to see how good the Red Sox franchise player is. Not very good.
When I wrote: "There is no replacement for talent, and we are seeing that this year" , I simply meant that with the trade the Sox went from mediocre to terrible. Which is okay, because had they not made the trade there would have been no escape from the mediocrity.
However, wanting to replace elite players w internal options has failed. I understand the hesitance to spend 22M on an elite player (.300, 30 HR) , when you could spend 11M and get .280, 20 HR. However, you have to pay a premium for elite players even though the law of diminishing returns certainly applies. A firstbaseman who will hit 10HR is worth about 6M on the open market. One who will 20 is worth about 11. One who will hit 30 is worth about 20M. Even though you pay more for each HR between 20 and 30 then you would between 10 and 20, you still have to be willing to do it, because elite players are worth the premium.
If you have a 1B and DH who will hit 20 HR each, that creates a power void. Thats how you end up having to look for power at defense first positions (e.g. Salty and Aviles). I completely agree w you about construction. However, I think that the ideal constructions are as follows: One elite hitting corner-outfielder, one elite hitting 1B, one elite hitting DH. If you have an elite 3-4-5, things fall into place. You can find a good OBP guy and stick him second. YOu can find a speedy/OBP guy for 10M and bat him leadoff....
But I think its worth it to pay a premium for elite hitters at offensive positions because if you are not getting 85 HR's from your 3,4,5 hitters, it's very hard to compete.
I am in the minority here, but I strongly believe that your team should be built around your 3,4,5 hitters. NOT PITCHING. Pitching is too variable year to year. Its a crapshoot. Therefore , you should not throw huge dollars at pitchers (unless of course, you get the chance to obtain a Jered Weaver type).
There is no replacement for having elite power hitters at the 3,4,5 in your lineup. "We'll compensate by having power throughout our lineup"...That doesnt work because now you are looking for power at 2B, SS, C and you'll have to overpay for it (both in $$ and w poor defense).
We'll compensate by having good pitching...That doesnt work because you never know how your pitching is going to be. Look at Lester, Lincecum, Zito....Any pitcher, at any time, can revert to crap. You shouldnt build your teams around unknowns. And any obtainable pitcher is an unknown.