Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    It's easy to find lists of first round draft picks that were busts on the 'net, along with even longer lists of down list picks that shined, but what I've had a much harder time finding is internet links to persuasive discussions of why players that appeared to have it all in college just couldn't make it happen when they came up for major league baseball.

    We've had enormous advancements in recent decades in sports medicine, along with the development of fantastic training facilities. Passing a physical can mean going through modern imaging that almost takes a player apart for examination a molecule at a time. Modern diagnostics can quantify reflexes, quickness and speed like never before. And yet we seem just as prone to picking players that flop as ever.

    ???

    I could understand this better if we were trying to predict the performance of people for playing baseball if they were selected at random, but we're selecting from pools of people that have throwing baseballs since they could walk. We're evaluating the performance of people that are the best at what they do while competing against others of similar experience and quality.

    There's got to be a stack of great books or links to great articles about this on the internet. If you've got list that discusses why players succeed or fail (versus simply lists of who did) I'd love to hear about it.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    Here is one discussion that focuses on Delmon Young:

    http://www.faketeams.com/2013/6/28/4472036/delmon-young-scouting-report-baseball-america-failed-prospects

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    In response to lasitter's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's easy to find lists of first round draft picks that were busts on the 'net, along with even longer lists of down list picks that shined, but what I've had a much harder time finding is internet links to persuasive discussions of why players that appeared to have it all in college just couldn't make it happen when they came up for major league baseball.

    We've had enormous advancements in recent decades in sports medicine, along with the development of fantastic training facilities. Passing a physical can mean going through modern imaging that almost takes a player apart for examination a molecule at a time. Modern diagnostics can quantify reflexes, quickness and speed like never before. And yet we seem just as prone to picking players that flop as ever.

    ???

    I could understand this better if we were trying to predict the performance of people for playing baseball if they were selected at random, but we're selecting from pools of people that have throwing baseballs since they could walk. We're evaluating the performance of people that are the best at what they do while competing against others of similar experience and quality.

    There's got to be a stack of great books or links to great articles about this on the internet. If you've got list that discusses why players succeed or fail (versus simply lists of who did) I'd love to hear about it.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Good point for discussion. I'm not sure if there will ever be a cut & dry reason why some fail and others surprise, but it's a different game in college than MLB or even the minor leagues. Some adjust- some don't.

    It used to be scouts just recommened great athletes or "5 tool" players, but now they are looking at other aspects of a player's game ond mental make-up.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    Baseball is a very difficult game at the highest levels, and the farther up the chain you go the harder it gets.  It's a jungle, man! 

    And as Mr. Laguna points out, there are only x number of MLB jobs.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    success or failure

    20/10 vision

    hand eye coordination

    desire / love / passion for the game

    type A

    ACTN3 Genes

    Luck

    Mental

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    sorry I can't help you with any links  lasitter

    but i think U did touch on something

    that doesn't get enough light IMO

     

     Player Development

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    In response to JoseLaguna's comment:
    "The huge pool of applicants can collectively improve their skills, get faster and stronger, and better coordinated - but still only 1200 will make MLB rosters."

    I get this, but it still doesn't tell you why the best amateur players don't excel a surprising number of times, or why players way down the list (or even undrafted!) can surprise.

    And this is a completely different issue from players like Bard, who once performed up to or beyond expectations and then completely unraveled, for issues having nothing to do with physical health.

    I have a strong feeling that many players with all the physical tools to be great baseball players just never make it, and I'm dumbfounded as to why player development programs can't sort this out.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:
    " Player Development"

    When you consider all the money spent on fat contracts and signing bonuses, and add to that all the things like the luxury tax which limit your ability to charge ahead in areas like free agency, I think player development has got to be one of the keys to future success of many small and medium market franchises.

    Teams are absolutely unlimited in terms of how much they can spend in this area. If you could somehow get only a 10 cent on the dollar ROI interms of player development expenditures, I would be inclined to hit the afterburners on it.

    Imagine if you could find a baseball "whisperer" (aka horse whisperer) to keep tabs on each player or prospect, keeping a finger on the pulse of their mental status or all the intangibles associated with potential success. If you could find people that were good at this, I have to think they'd be worth anything you might pay them.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    Significantly small sample size when you talk about High School and College, to even Minors. It starts with the Scouts. Most of these kids dominate in High School and College, when they hit the professional level different story. Good Scouting finds the talent, great Coaches in the Minor League system refines it, especially with whats above the shoulders, to become a Professional Baseball Player.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    In response to hill55's comment:
    "Here is one discussion that focuses on Delmon Young:"

    Thanks for that. Hope BC and company aren't using Baseball America as the bible for draft picks ...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    After reading the article about Delmon Young, I wonder how many folks here think the problem is that failing players just never really had what it took to succeed at higher levels and the real problem is with the scouts that couldn't see it?

    What could scouts do differently to come up with more predictive calls on young players?

    How about the equivalent of letting non-roster invitees come in to take hacks at the really nasty stuff? The ability to hit a big-league curve ball is its own report card.

    While 540-foot homers in high school are impressive, they obviously don't translate well in the major leagues.

    When you look at how successful some of the small payroll clubs have been with building rosters, I think they have to have been doing something right under the radar.

    I know it helps, but can we really attribute the Rays success to the competitive balance lottery?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

     

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    "Here is one discussion that focuses on Delmon Young:"

    Thanks for that. Hope BC and company aren't using Baseball America as the bible for draft picks ...

    One empirical study suggests that Baseball America does a decent job of projecting the MLB production of prospects:

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

    ACTN3 Genes

     



    Pimples from your parents are the key to success?

    Seriously, I think one of the things to look for and try and stay away from are players that look roided up. Delmon's dad was a big leaguer. Delmon was "filled out" by the time he was a senior in high school. Avoid the bulked up power hitters and look for everything else.

    The make-up thing is something Delmon also lacked. And we seem to focus on it more then most. Its all about upside. Who will get better. Who will work on their game just because they LOVE to work on their game.  

    In basketball, when a team drafts a big man, they must figure out if he loves the game or not. Many 7 footers play basketball just for the chicks-education-money. If he doesn't love basketball, avoid him like the black death.

    So pimples yes, black death no.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Mystery of Drafts vs Player Development??

    Its like asking why Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round and Joe Montana the 3rd round in NFL draft, when these guys are poked, prodded, and interviewed to no end prior to the draft. Sometimes these guys are not seperated by very much physically, but what seperates them is more mental or the enviroment which they are placed - is it condusive to succeeding? If Tom Brady were drafted today by the Colts in the 6th round, is there a chance he might never get one sitting behind Andrew Luck?

    Same with baseball, probably not a lot that seperates most of these guys physically. But must be mentally strong and be put in the proper enviroment to succeed. Why is it a guy like Jamie Moyer can stay in the league for 20 yrs throwing the crap he threw. But a guy like Craig Hansen throwing  at 95+ w/ a nasty slider fails as a 1st round pick?

     

     
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