I wonder what the offers will be on Salty (or Lava).  

If we get Naps, will we then look desperate to trade Salty?

Will this lessen the return?

If yes, maybe we should just trade Salty now.

In response to notin's comment:

Notin -that might be the most inane thing you have ever written - and that is saying something....and as far as Lester goes, if he were on another team and a free agent, the bootlickers would tear him apart despite his stellar career record/averages....I would be the one saying he is worth 4 years at 15-20 mil a yr based on his age and record....you on the other hand would be citing his 2012 season and dwelling on cancer remission rates stating he couldnt "hack" Boston...thats the difference between you an I...I have no agenda and speak honestly...

In response to moonslav59's comment:

I just read MLB.com that napoli will be back in texas on Wednesday to talk with rangers mngt. a couple of quick quotes mention:

May be an unproductive meeting cause the Ranger areonly interested in a 2 year contract and that the Rangers also have interest in FA Pierzynski.

Who knows about Salty when/ if this deal will happen. The Red Sox are more interested Napoli playing first I assume.

Looking from Napoli's circumstances and age he wants long term deal to for retirement reasons.

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan takes a look at Mike Napoli:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/answers-to-questions-about-mike-napoli/

Napoli's meeting is now Tuesday, so we should see resolution on this issue soon.  Jen Royle, Red Sox reporter and close friend of Napoli, says that if the Sox offer 4 years, they will likely sign him.  For the record, she puts the Sox chance at signing him at 60%.

If the Red Sox offer Napoli 4 years it will be among the stupidest things ever done by management in the history of teh franchise.

I think Cherington is right to hold out for 3. It's take it or leave it time for the Napster-and my gut tells me he's gonna take it. I see him playing  for us this season.

Has anyone notice that Napoli batted .227 last season?

 

 

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

Please!

CC for 7 years.

Lackey for $85M.

Trading Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater.

Babe Ruth for cash.

Not sending Fisk a contract.

Baqwell for L Anderson.

And on and on...

This post has been removed.

"Napoli's not good enough for a 1st rate contract. It sounds like he doesn't want to play for the Red Sox but will do so if they will pay a premium. Pull the plug on the guy at 2 years and 20M.  "

Holy moly I fully agree with Softy, what is this world coming to? 

It doesn't matter if the Sox have cap room, they should NOT offer more than 2 years to just about anyone over 30 in the post roids era. It's the long term nature of these contracts that have hurt the Sox so badly in the past. 

Overpay a bit for two years - ok. Beyond two - no. Not unless it's a mid-twenties barnburner.

In response to BostonTrollSpanker's comment:

You might as well pack up the tent then, because available mid-twenties barnburners are a rather scarce commodity.

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

Has anyone noticed that batting average is a 1980's statistic?

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

I think 4 years of Napoli would not be as bad as giving JD Drew a 5-year, $70 million contract back in 2007.  

But anyways, four years is too much for Napoli.   

I hope the Mariners get desperate and sign him instead.  

This post has been removed.

In response to pinstripezac's comment:

Hiya Zac. We shall see my friend! Lordy knows my guts been wrong before. I think the real issue is whether the Red Sox will be committed to winning this season, and that of course means willing to spend. If not then nobody will want to play here anyway...

seems as if ben is standing firm at 3 years. which is perfect. if the rangers and/or the mariners don't offer him a 4 year deal then i think he will end up in boston for sure

2009-2012:

Out of the top  33 1Bmen with 1350+ PAs since 2009, the average 1Bman's OPS (#16 & 17) was .835/.822 (Morneau & Helton).

The above average 1Bmen by OPS were:

1) Miggy  1.003 (3B now)

2) Votto   .994

3) Pujols  .969  (In decline)

4) Fielder .952 (May be a DH soon)

5) AGon    .906

6) Konerko .896 (Keep waiting for this guy to decline as he ages)

7) Berkman .885 (Clearly not above average anymore)

8) Youkilis   .877 (In decline)

9) Napoli     .867  (Catcher/DH as well)

10) Teixeira .863 (Has declined for 4 straight years)

11) M Morse  .857 (One year of team control)

12) K Morales .857 (One year of team control)

13) Howard    .856

14) B Butler   .854  (More of a DH type)

15) D Lee        .844  (Not a better than avg 1Bman anymore)

 

Going by OPS only, it appears that Napoli, Morse, and Morales are pretty close.

Getting Napoli would not cost prospects, as Drewski poiints out, and he can slide to catcher at NL parks to allow Papi to play 1B, and also provides for a 3rd catcher that will allow us to PH for our catcher late in games.

Getting Morse or Morales and extending him might have more potential upside in terms of offense, and Morse can play LF, but both will cost us nice prospects.

If you take away Miggy (3B now), Berkman & Youk (declined), then Naps, Morse and morales are all top 10 now by OPS. They may all now be better offensively than Teix & Konerko as well, making them #5-7.

I say avoid Napoli!

OPS+ 2006 -2012:   110  107  148  120  115  173  110

Looks to me like he had two great years.

I agree with Dave Cameron's take:  Napoli’s not exactly a sure thing himself. The massive spike in his strikeout rate should scare you. The fact that he only hit nine doubles last year should scare you. The fact that he’s a catcher on the wrong side of 30 should scare you. Maybe he goes Josh Willingham on the league and shows everyone that the strikeout rate wasn’t a trend, but there’s some legitimate downside to giving him a long term deal. Given his age, his body type, his skillset, and the fact that he’s already logged 4,000+ big league innings behind the plate, counting on him to be a productive player in 2014 and beyond is a gamble. At the right price, it might be a gamble worth making, but if you’re outbidding the Red Sox, it’s probably not the right price anymore.

In response to tom-uk's comment:

a) How many sure thing players are there.

b) How many of them are available.

In response to tom-uk's comment:

I see 2 great years, and 5 good years.  If you saw 5 great years, then we would be talking about a Mauer contract. 

I find it much more likely that a well documented hamstring injury that lingered through the season was the reason for the K spike.  He was 30 years old last year.

From 2008-2011, his OPS was top 5 among firstbaseman.  Thats with the wear and tear of catching.  He's one of the best power hitters in the league and he's 31 years old.  He draws a ton of walks.  There's a reason why he's target #1.

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

Moon's list should tell you everything you need to know!  Miggy no longer qualifies, as he's a 3B.  Konerko is 37 so the drop off is coming.  Youk is in free fall.  Berkman is 100.

So you can expect the production of these three to plummet.  Also cross Miggy off the list so he no longer qualifies as a 1B.

Lets see the adjusted list:

1. Votto

2. Pujols

3. Fielder

4. AGON

5. Napoli

6. Tex

Out of the six best hitting 1B in the league, one has put up the numbers despite having to deal w/ the riggors of catching.  one can be had for less than 20M/yr.  one can slide into the C spot during interleague games.  one absolutely rakes at Fenway.  one has never had any lineup protection in his life.

People dont want to give this guy 12M/yr?  Just turned 31 (young for a FA), wont take any prospects (or draft picks) to acquire.  All comparables are 20M+ guys!!  Naps is a righty pull hitter who draws a ton of walks.  He's a positive clubhouse guy.

12M/yr for Naps is a steal.  If we have to go four years, then we'll go four years.

It is a question of whether you want Napoli or not.  If you really want him , the difference between three years and four years should not be that big of a deal.  Some of the posters like to think a little too deeply into things.

In response to Drewski5's comment:

You've made a great case for Napoli, Drewski.  It also sounds like Sox scouting department feels the same way.  

In response to Drewski5's comment:

+1

can't argue with those numbers. although i'm hesisitant to offer him 4 years.. 3 year deal with a vesting option on a 4th year would be ideal but if he have to go 4 to aquire him then so be it. he can DH in a couple years when papi retires