napoli...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: napoli...

    I think Burr's point may be, "what are the chances" (over this statistical valid sample size) that Naps will suddenly have 600+ PAs?

    Is anyone getting just 400-450 PAs worth $12M+ a year? 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think Burr's point may be, "what are the chances" (over this statistical valid sample size) that Naps will suddenly have 600+ PAs?

    Is anyone getting just 400-450 PAs worth $12M+ a year? 

    [/QUOTE]

    The reason for the 400-450 PAs is because he was a catcher.  Its different now that he is a part-time catcher.  Therefore , I dont think its fair to hold the 400-450 PAs over his head.

    And yes, many players are worth 12M/yr for 400-450 PA's.  A 12M/yr contract isnt what it was 5 years ago.  Gomes got 5M/yr to play in 25% of our games, and he is a non-elite hitter w/ shoddy (at best) defense.

    Its a new era, Moon.  TV revenue has changed the market and salaries are going north in a hurry.  It's an unfortunate reality.

    By 2014, a 12M/yr contract will be nothing short of piddly. (Sigh)

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from kt888. Show kt888's posts

    Re: napoli...

    Drewski5,

    You make solid points about Napoli's offensive attributes, but isn't it fair to say that he is a relative unknown as a 1B?  The other players that you have been comparing him to in your argument (AGon, Tex, Votto, Puljos, etc) have played at an elite level over the course of their careers, both offensively and defensively.  That counts for something, right?  $12 million/year for 3 years sounds fair to me for Napoli, but I personally would stop shy of referring to 3-4 years at 12 million per/year as a steal or bargain for him.  Regardless, I've enjoyed reading your posts on the matter.   I would be happy if the Sox could get him for 3/36, or even 3/40 if that is what it takes - it would be an overpay IMO but any FA signing typically is.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to kt888's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Drewski5,

    You make solid points about Napoli's offensive attributes, but isn't it fair to say that he is a relative unknown as a 1B?  The other players that you have been comparing him to in your argument (AGon, Tex, Votto, Puljos, etc) have played at an elite level over the course of their careers, both offensively and defensively.  That counts for something, right?  $12 million/year for 3 years sounds fair to me for Napoli, but I personally would stop shy of referring to 3-4 years at 12 million per/year as a steal or bargain for him.  Regardless, I've enjoyed reading your posts on the matter.   I would be happy if the Sox could get him for 3/36, or even 3/40 if that is what it takes - it would be an overpay IMO but any FA signing typically is.

    [/QUOTE]


    also a good point, i'm not expecting him to be an stout defensive 1st baseman but really, its first base. if papi, fielder, pujols and all the giant frame, slow, lumbering guys can do it with success i would think napoli (who as a catcher obviously has good reflexes/hand-eye) can do it too and hold his own defensively. as for his offense i would think it would get better without the wear&tear of catching half the season. plus it will allow him more time to work on his swing as opposed to spending that time preparing to catch/scouting the opposing pitcher.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    Oon any given day you would choose Napoli over AGon or Pujols? Again those are names of greatness, and Napoli is not great. Fielder is great. Tex might have been and was for a bit.... if Tex could tail off you want to bet that Napoli's numbers exposed to an extra 48 games a year wont go down in terms of OPS?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Basically you could assume that on any given day you would chooses Napoli over AGon or Pujols? Again those are names of greatness, and Napoli is not great. Fielder is great. Tex might have been and was for a bit.... if Tex could tail off you want to bet that Napoli's numbers exposed to an extra 48 games a year wont go down in terms of OPS?

    [/QUOTE]


    no, because the players you listed (aside fom tex) are much better than Naps. napoli just happens to be the best 1st baseman avaiable and would not cost us any draft picks or prospects.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    We do not need him. Stop aiming for a WSC in 2013 and blowing the "we must sign FA's" horn all winter. 2014+ is where this teams current core lies...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think Burr's point may be, "what are the chances" (over this statistical valid sample size) that Naps will suddenly have 600+ PAs?

    Is anyone getting just 400-450 PAs worth $12M+ a year? 

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes u would think he would see that was my point. I guess I don't explain it very well. The player has never hit more than 24 homers twice but his "averages" suggest he will hit 33. Dreski assumes he will hit 33. He has driven in more than 75 runs but his average suggests he would drive in 85 over 162 games. 85? Is that a player who needs protection? Sounds like a #5 hitter or even a #6.

     

    Plus some are using averages for facts ans we are now going to see a player magically play 40 games a year more each season for the next 4 years? He is over 30 and I believe he was "injured" last season.

    Look at his 2010 numbers: That was the year he played in 140 games and yet he still did not have his career highs in hr/ribbies/2B/Runs etc.,.... the list goes on and on. Hecke he batted .238 THE LOWEST IN HIS CAREER.

    Basically the more games he played over 114 his numbers fell flat or declined from his cushy -114 game averages.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01.shtml

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We do not need him. Stop aiming for a WSC in 2013 and blowing the "we must sign FA's" horn all winter. 2014+ is where this teams current core lies...

    [/QUOTE]


    we obviously have different views on the state of the team. world series? probably not but we can become contenders in 2013 with the right moves. i believe napoli is the right move, you clearly do not. your entitled to that. just like i am entitled to think napoli would help the team (why wouldn't i? hes a good fit for our team)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    One more thing about averages - if you base them off an "average" of 162 games and a player has never played in 162 games then just how much is projection or fantasy? Can't have an 162 average if you have never played in 162... makes sense to me.

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We do not need him. Stop aiming for a WSC in 2013 and blowing the "we must sign FA's" horn all winter. 2014+ is where this teams current core lies...

    [/QUOTE]


    we obviously have different views on the state of the team. world series? probably not but we can become contenders in 2013 with the right moves. i believe napoli is the right move, you clearly do not. your entitled to that. just like i am entitled to think napoli would help the team (why wouldn't i? hes a good fit for our team)

    [/QUOTE]

    No he isn't

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We do not need him. Stop aiming for a WSC in 2013 and blowing the "we must sign FA's" horn all winter. 2014+ is where this teams current core lies...

    [/QUOTE]


    we obviously have different views on the state of the team. world series? probably not but we can become contenders in 2013 with the right moves. i believe napoli is the right move, you clearly do not. your entitled to that. just like i am entitled to think napoli would help the team (why wouldn't i? hes a good fit for our team)

    [/QUOTE]

    No he isn't

    [/QUOTE]


    thats your opinion. but they guys who put a team together for a living seem to agree with me.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    mef429 that is about an silly a statement as anyone could make. I doubt the FO even if they sign Napoli would invite you to the press conference. The FO agrees with me? ROFL. Thanks for getting me to laugh.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    mef429 that is about an silly a statement as anyone could make. I doubt the FO even if they sign Napoli would invite you to the press conference. The FO agrees with me? ROFL. Thanks for getting me to laugh.

    [/QUOTE]

    your taking it out of context.

     

    i look at it this way. i think napoli is a good fit and want him on the team. clearnly the FO does too otherwise they wouldn't be in talks with him.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    No worries. I have a different plan for the team and just like yours it would only be luck if they went with even one point of it. 

    I think unless Baltimore does something this winter we are just as likely to see them finish at .500 rather than over it. And if Tampa does not finally do something about getting a real bat to couple with Longoria they may as well plan on barely missing or getting into the play-offs. Toronto will be the team to beat.

    Did I forget anyone? Oh that is right the Yankees. lol. Not a threat but will still always be in the way.

    I think we are a last place team and I am okay with that if moves are made for the future (2014 not 2020).

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We do not need him. Stop aiming for a WSC in 2013 and blowing the "we must sign FA's" horn all winter. 2014+ is where this teams current core lies...

    [/QUOTE]

    We can't just bail out on 2013.  Besides, Napoli could be a big help in 2014.  Look at Mike Lowell. We traded for him coming off a bad year, we weren't very good in 2006 but in 2007 everything came together and Lowell was a big part of winning a World Series.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think Burr's point may be, "what are the chances" (over this statistical valid sample size) that Naps will suddenly have 600+ PAs?

    Is anyone getting just 400-450 PAs worth $12M+ a year? 

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes u would think he would see that was my point. I guess I don't explain it very well. The player has never hit more than 24 homers twice but his "averages" suggest he will hit 33. Dreski assumes he will hit 33. He has driven in more than 75 runs but his average suggests he would drive in 85 over 162 games. 85? Is that a player who needs protection? Sounds like a #5 hitter or even a #6.

     

    Plus some are using averages for facts ans we are now going to see a player magically play 40 games a year more each season for the next 4 years? He is over 30 and I believe he was "injured" last season.

    Look at his 2010 numbers: That was the year he played in 140 games and yet he still did not have his career highs in hr/ribbies/2B/Runs etc.,.... the list goes on and on. Hecke he batted .238 THE LOWEST IN HIS CAREER.

    Basically the more games he played over 114 his numbers fell flat or declined from his cushy -114 game averages.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01.shtml

    [/QUOTE]

    There is no discussion trying to compare the wear and tear catching, to the wear and tear playing 1B.  Napoli has averaged 119 games over the past four years.  Mauer is on his way to the HOF, and has averaged only 126.  McCann, a major star, has averaged 132.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    Making my case. McCann and Mauer are better, McCann plays in the NL and has still managed to play more games than Napoli who can DH when not catching. Napoli will be out of the line-up as much as he is in or if he manages to stay healthy his OPS and other numbers will declinecompared to his "averages"

     

    You want to bet Mauer is  a lock to the HOF? Unless he changes to 1B and starts hitting 30 homers a year he won't be a lock.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    Hfx nobody was more pumped to get Lowell than I, and he was all but written off at the time. Napoli is not the same to me... all preference.

    If Napoli was signing a 2 yeard deal (and I could care less about the dollars) I would say ok. He will be in the way by the time we compete in 2014-15.

    When he his barely clearing 125 games and hitting 24 homers with 70 ribbies what more can he offer? Stellar catching? lol. Come one now. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    Tek averaged 130 games a year and somehow the invaluable Napoli and his all powerful bat could not go more than 114 games in a year. 114 games is the second most in his career btw... he normally plays even less.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to Drewski5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think Burr's point may be, "what are the chances" (over this statistical valid sample size) that Naps will suddenly have 600+ PAs?

    Is anyone getting just 400-450 PAs worth $12M+ a year? 

    [/QUOTE]

    The reason for the 400-450 PAs is because he was a catcher.  Its different now that he is a part-time catcher.  Therefore , I dont think its fair to hold the 400-450 PAs over his head.

    And yes, many players are worth 12M/yr for 400-450 PA's.  A 12M/yr contract isnt what it was 5 years ago.  Gomes got 5M/yr to play in 25% of our games, and he is a non-elite hitter w/ shoddy (at best) defense.

    Its a new era, Moon.  TV revenue has changed the market and salaries are going north in a hurry.  It's an unfortunate reality.

    By 2014, a 12M/yr contract will be nothing short of piddly. (Sigh)

    [/QUOTE]


    I am warming up to the idea of naps and have suggested $33M/3 and said I wouldn't complain at $36M/3 or $44M/4, but I have a few points to make:

     

    1) We faced LH'd starters in 51 games last year. That's closer to 30% than 25% for Gomes.

     

    2) Napoli is better vs LHPs, so the more PAs he gets the more it will be vs RHPs. This might nuetralize the Fenway improvement you envision.

     

    3) His limited PAs over the years are not due to his role as a catcher. He has been hurt, and played many of his innings at 1b and DH over the years:

    2012: C 620/1B 208/DH 9 gms (started at C about 67% of his gms played)

    2011: C 506/1B 246/DH 18 gms (started at C about 56%)

    2010: C 525/1B 586/DH 1 gm (started at C about 45%)

    2009: C 758/1B 0/DH 16 gms (started at C about 84%)

    2008: C 625 (100%)

     

    4) Here's how many catchers caught more innings than Naps:

    2012: 28

    2011: 35

    2010: 37

    2009: 20

    2008: 27

     

    2010 to 2012 combined: 31 (Just a little more than Shoppach)

    I'm not sure using the "he catches" argument to explain away his low PAs is the main cause & effect.

     

    5) Although Naps had much better splits vs RHPs than LHPs last year, his career splits are .845 vs RHPs and .911 vs LHPs. (2010-2012: vs RHPs .858/ vs LHPs .912) So, if he follows his 3 year numbers and has 70% of his PAs vs RHPs, he should end up around .870-.875. Certainly not bad, and worth $12M a year with 550+ PAs.

     

    I do think Naps can get 550+ PAs in 2013, but I am not certain of it.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: napoli...

    Napoli (based on averages) strikes out more than DAVID ORTIZ !!!

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: napoli...

    From today's FanGraphs chat with columnist Dave Cameron:

    12:00 [ Comment From Magic Man Magic Man: ] No way Napoli gets a 4th year from someone right? Wednesday November 28, 2012 12:00 Magic Man 12:01 Dave Cameron: Yeah, I'm not even sure he'll get three. I think the reports of the Mariners interest in vastly overstated, and in reality, it's the Red Sox essentially bidding against themselves.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-chat-112812/

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli (based on averages) strikes out more than DAVID ORTIZ !!!

    [/QUOTE]

    He also HRs(based on averages)  more than David Ortiz!!!!

     

    2010-2012:

    Napoli

    5.9% of PAs (80/1359PA)  

    6.8% of ABs (80/1174 AB)

    Papi    

    5.3% of PAs (84/1594 PA)

    6.1% of ABs (84/1367 AB)

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: napoli...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Hfx nobody was more pumped to get Lowell than I, and he was all but written off at the time. Napoli is not the same to me... all preference.

    If Napoli was signing a 2 yeard deal (and I could care less about the dollars) I would say ok. He will be in the way by the time we compete in 2014-15.

    When he his barely clearing 125 games and hitting 24 homers with 70 ribbies what more can he offer? Stellar catching? lol. Come one now. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Probablly could be at DH by then if we get a FT 1b.

     

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