posted at 11/28/2012 10:39 PM EST
In response to Drewski5's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
I think Burr's point may be, "what are the chances" (over this statistical valid sample size) that Naps will suddenly have 600+ PAs?
Is anyone getting just 400-450 PAs worth $12M+ a year?
The reason for the 400-450 PAs is because he was a catcher. Its different now that he is a part-time catcher. Therefore , I dont think its fair to hold the 400-450 PAs over his head.
And yes, many players are worth 12M/yr for 400-450 PA's. A 12M/yr contract isnt what it was 5 years ago. Gomes got 5M/yr to play in 25% of our games, and he is a non-elite hitter w/ shoddy (at best) defense.
Its a new era, Moon. TV revenue has changed the market and salaries are going north in a hurry. It's an unfortunate reality.
By 2014, a 12M/yr contract will be nothing short of piddly. (Sigh)
I am warming up to the idea of naps and have suggested $33M/3 and said I wouldn't complain at $36M/3 or $44M/4, but I have a few points to make:
1) We faced LH'd starters in 51 games last year. That's closer to 30% than 25% for Gomes.
2) Napoli is better vs LHPs, so the more PAs he gets the more it will be vs RHPs. This might nuetralize the Fenway improvement you envision.
3) His limited PAs over the years are not due to his role as a catcher. He has been hurt, and played many of his innings at 1b and DH over the years:
2012: C 620/1B 208/DH 9 gms (started at C about 67% of his gms played)
2011: C 506/1B 246/DH 18 gms (started at C about 56%)
2010: C 525/1B 586/DH 1 gm (started at C about 45%)
2009: C 758/1B 0/DH 16 gms (started at C about 84%)
2008: C 625 (100%)
4) Here's how many catchers caught more innings than Naps:
2010 to 2012 combined: 31 (Just a little more than Shoppach)
I'm not sure using the "he catches" argument to explain away his low PAs is the main cause & effect.
5) Although Naps had much better splits vs RHPs than LHPs last year, his career splits are .845 vs RHPs and .911 vs LHPs. (2010-2012: vs RHPs .858/ vs LHPs .912) So, if he follows his 3 year numbers and has 70% of his PAs vs RHPs, he should end up around .870-.875. Certainly not bad, and worth $12M a year with 550+ PAs.
I do think Naps can get 550+ PAs in 2013, but I am not certain of it.