posted at 11/28/2012 9:06 AM EST
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to Drewski5's comment:
In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
In response to tom-uk's comment:
I say avoid Napoli!
OPS+ 2006 -2012: 110 107 148 120 115 173 110
Looks to me like he had two great years.
I agree with Dave Cameron's take: NapoliâÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂs not exactly a sure thing himself.
a) How many sure thing players are there.
b) How many of them are available.
Moon's list should tell you everything you need to know! Miggy no longer qualifies, as he's a 3B. Konerko is 37 so the drop off is coming. Youk is in free fall. Berkman is 100.
So you can expect the production of these three to plummet. Also cross Miggy off the list so he no longer qualifies as a 1B.
Lets see the adjusted list:
Out of the six best hitting 1B in the league, one has put up the numbers despite having to deal w/ the riggors of catching. one can be had for less than 20M/yr. one can slide into the C spot during interleague games. one absolutely rakes at Fenway. one has never had any lineup protection in his life.
People dont want to give this guy 12M/yr? Just turned 31 (young for a FA), wont take any prospects (or draft picks) to acquire. All comparables are 20M+ guys!! Naps is a righty pull hitter who draws a ton of walks. He's a positive clubhouse guy.
12M/yr for Naps is a steal. If we have to go four years, then we'll go four years.
Drew, you have made a great case, and to me the clincher is the fact that Naps can slide over to catcher at NL parks, so Papi can play at 1B. It sure beats sliding AGon to RF, or benching a high-priced 1Bman like LaRoche, Morneau, or Butler.
I'd really try to hold to 3 years ($33M/3), but my guess is it will take at least $36M/3 or $44M/4.
If Hunter gets $26M/2, I gotta think Naps will get more than what I just said above. Although Naps makes a lot of sense on several levels, I really think we should be looking more towards competing in 2014 or more likely 2015 and beyond. That's the one drawback I see to Naps. Yes, he is young enough to still be able to contribute 2-4 years from now, but chances are he may decline some. His rise in the K rate is scary. His low BA this year is as well.
Although I do not think an offer of $36M/3 or $46M/4 is too high, I wouldn't bash Ben for offering it. And, since I do not think he will sign for that low, I guess I am saying either naps won't be here, or we will have overpaid by too much for my liking if he does end up here.
I dont know Moon, I'm starting to think that 4 yr / 44 gets it done. I'd be nervous of going too far north of 46/4 as well.