posted at 12/1/2012 8:14 AM EST
In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
joe 99% of anything I said about Napoli stemmed from Drewski trumping his high OPS... to which I simply countered that his OPS probably would never be that high had the guy played regularly in 145+ games a year. Come on now and look at his stats... he has hundreds upon hundreds fewer bats then all the other OPS leaders Drewski named.
Joey Votto was probably the only player listed that comes close to Napoli in terms of AB's and GP and HR and RBI. Pujols, Fielder, and AGon should never be mentioned in Napoli comparisons, not ever.
If a pitcher makes 15 starts a year and goes 7-0 each year you don't start comparing his winning percentage to guys who start 30 games a year. A yes pitcher Y has a favorable winning percentage to Seaver, Ryan, Kofax... etc...... no you don't do that.
You make some solid pts, Burr. Keep in mind: when Adrian Gonzalez signed for 22M/yr, the sox had him under control for one year, and therefore had some leverage. He was also coming off a down year. It can be assumed that if he was a FA, he could have gotten more. Prince Fielder is a DH and got about 25M per. VMART makes 15M/yr FYI and is 34.
I think conventional wisdom believes that Greinke's contract will be somewhere between CC's and Cain's. Look at Hammy and all the question marks. He almost relapsed last year, he is on the wrong side of 30 and has back issues EVERY year. He will get 25M / yr. So if its 25M/yr for a player who cant stay health and has alcoholism issues, what is the annual value of an elite player , under 30, with no question marks? 30M+?
We saw the Sox pay 5M for a player who will only play in 25% of the games, cant field, and isnt elite offensively.
IMO, the TV reneue is changing the market. I think that salaries have gone very north , very fast. I actually like softlaw as a poster, however, I think that he is living in yesterdays market. That's no disrespect to him, because I mean literally yesterday, that is how fast this market has changed.
The main difference between Softlaws beliefs and mine is that he thinks that 2013 is a big labor embarassment. If Softlaw is correct, then I agree that we should avoid bidding wars for guys like Napoli. However, I believe that 2013 (and on) is a big labor embarassment. I dont think 2013 is a one year trend. I think this ballooning of salaries is going to continue. As mentioned, Hammy's contract will push the "first rate contract" even more north than 25M+ it sits at right now.
The reason that I dont hate Napoli for four years is because I think that in four years 12M/yr will get you a mediocre player at best and therefore really isnt that much of a committment. Even in 2012 , I would call 12M/yr an average contract. Hunter is much older than Napoli, has an OPS that is far inferior, and just signed for 16M/yr.
I think you are a good poster and make some pts. I actually agree with your pts, and that is why I am unwilling to go too far north of 4/50. I think what we disagree on is what 4/50 will buy you. I would submit its an average player at best. While you are correct in that comparing Napoli to Pujols/Prince is a reach, consider that Pujols /Prince are signed to first rate contracts, and the contract we are talking about for Napoli is a fourth rate contract.
Its bothersome to me a well; however, the two choices are keep up with the market or never sign an impact free agent again. I think that a big market team like the sox should use all avenues available to field the best team possible.
In today's market , 4 yrs / 50 for Napoli is good value.