Nava and my prediction

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Nava and my prediction

    On June 7, Daniel Nava was hitting .135 in 81 AB.  I boldly predicted Nava would get 27 hits in his next 81 ABs (.333).   I did not expect power, saying he would get, and I quote, “about 36 total bases.” 


     


    Since that day, Nava is 24 for 76 (.316).  In order to hit my number and absolutely NAIL my projection, Nava needs to get 3 hits in his next 5 at-bats.  So it is still possible.  


     


    However, his 24 hits have only netted 27 total bases, a total even lower than I anticipated.  Though to be honest, I arrived at 27 for 81 mathematically.  The 36 TB was just a guess. But, it was MY guess and i am going to own it.  So if he can get 9 total bases in his next 5 ABs, I can nail that one, too.   That means serious XBH power.  9 TB in three hits is almost impossible without at least one home run.   Sure he could hit 3 triples In theory, but how often does a player hit 3 triples on one game?   Or even one week?


    Last player to hit 3 triples in one game?  I googles it and found an SABR article http://research.sabr.org/journals/three-triples" rel="nofollow">http://research.sabr.org/journals/three-triples)


    It cites the last player to accomplish this was former Sox 1b coach Al Bumbry in 1973.   Not sure about you, but I KNEW this was wrong, and, sadly, was able to recall it being done more recently by former Twins CF Ken Landreaux.   Some quick research showed that Landreaux did hit 3 triples against the Rangers on July 3, 1980.  How I remember the accomplishment from an obscure Twins outfielder some 34 years ago is beyond me.  But more important, why doesn’t SABR remember him? 


     


    Anyway I need a home run, or more likely, 2 HRs from Nava to hit the TB.  Not likely.  Tomorrow the Sox face another lefty in Jose Quintana, and on Friday they face Scott Feldman. 


     


    Nava’s career against Feldman?  2 for 5 with 1 HR.  JUST shy!!


     


    Do I have a chance here?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    Dan Nava is 6-for-his-last-30 at bats, 0 EXB hits....he has scored 4 runs since June....his 2-RBI game as a pinch hitter in a 10-run deficit in the 9th inning was the first time all year he had driven in 2 runs in a game...He's had 179 PA this year with 2 HR, 9 RBI...

    You have no chance.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    I will add my Nava prediction: DFA or included in a trade by July 31

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    6-for-30....200

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    recent 10 games...by the way.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dustcover. Show dustcover's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    In response to dannycater's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Dan Nava is 6-for-his-last-30 at bats, 0 EXB hits....he has scored 4 runs since June....his 2-RBI game as a pinch hitter in a 10-run deficit in the 9th inning was the first time all year he had driven in 2 runs in a game...He's had 179 PA this year with 2 HR, 9 RBI...

    You have no chance.

    [/QUOTE]


    Wow, I'm sure you were being well intentioned, but you sure did burst Notin's balloon.  Just imagine the flak you're going to get from Notin if Nava comes through (as he did with his first ever MLB at-bat with a grand slam) and successfully gets enough hits to fulfill Notin's prediction.  You will undoubtedly never hear the end of it.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    dusty, what's sad about this is people still want to pretend he's on some sort of hot streak...6-for-30? Say what?

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    And when he was hitting that .340 in a 15-game stretch, he drove in 1 RBI and he produced next to nothing offensively (like the rest of the team, I know, I know).

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from AL34. Show AL34's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    Enough. He has to go, nice story but he has not produced this year. I have said it before that he is a backup at best or a late inning defensive replacement.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    Mr Cater did the same to me on another thread I used 30 days he used 10 games. I have not checked but Mr Cater I wonder how many guys were on base when he came to bat? Since they are not hitting as a team I could take a swag and say very few. Below are stats from Baseball reference


    Nava is 8 for 31 with 8 RBIs 258 with RISP for the year


    Napoli is 14 for 86 with 24 RBI with a 200 BA for the year


    Ortiz is 22 for 80 with 36 RBI  with a 275 BA for the year


     


    If you take Nava's numbers and take them to the same Qty as both Napoli and Ortiz they would be the same as Napoli's and slightly less than Ortiz.


    LOVE my  Red Sox, Bs, Cs, Pats and enjoy the ride every year. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    1 for 1 with a double tonight.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    1 for 1 with a double tonight.

    [/QUOTE]

    Small sample size.

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    In response to dannycater's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I will add my Nava prediction: DFA or included in a trade by July 31

    [/QUOTE]

    Why would you DFA a guy with options? Come on think DC.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    In response to VoiceofReason2014's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nice clutch hit by Nava inthe 9th inning. I'll bet that it ruined the night for some above. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Just need two more hits and 6 more bases in the next 4 at bats. Notin will probably by very close.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    In response to VoiceofReason2014's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nice clutch hit by Nava inthe 9th inning. I'll bet that it ruined the night for some above. 

    [/QUOTE]

    sorry, pike, I enjoy when Nava hits and when the Sox often...which in both cases don't happen often this year

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    okay, Forum Police Chief....I think the ego line is doth kettle and black.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dustcover. Show dustcover's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    In response to BogieAt12oclock's comment:


    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    1 for 1 with a double tonight.




    Small sample size.


    [/QUOTE]



    Best comeback of the season.  Definitely a forum All Star selection.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    I was AWOL because of people like you, truth be known. Got tired of Forum Killers like yourself analyzing and judging every poster while literally murdering any conversation on this board. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dustcover. Show dustcover's posts

    Re: Nava and my prediction

    In response to VoiceofReason2014's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Human nature for a Red Sox fan is to come here every year. You were AWOL all of last year. You admitted that you have no interest in being a fan when they are successful.  You only come to bi-tch, moan, and complain. You said that- not me. I call that weird. Why does a forum need fans like that. You act more like a Yankee fan that they do. Shame on you. Is this a hobby or obsession for you? Very atypical for someone who calls himself a fan. Are you for real?

    [/QUOTE]

    Who sir, might I ask, are you addressing?

     
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