On June 7, Daniel Nava was hitting .135 in 81 AB. I boldly predicted Nava would get 27 hits in his next 81 ABs (.333). I did not expect power, saying he would get, and I quote, “about 36 total bases.”
Since that day, Nava is 24 for 76 (.316). In order to hit my number and absolutely NAIL my projection, Nava needs to get 3 hits in his next 5 at-bats. So it is still possible.
However, his 24 hits have only netted 27 total bases, a total even lower than I anticipated. Though to be honest, I arrived at 27 for 81 mathematically. The 36 TB was just a guess. But, it was MY guess and i am going to own it. So if he can get 9 total bases in his next 5 ABs, I can nail that one, too. That means serious XBH power. 9 TB in three hits is almost impossible without at least one home run. Sure he could hit 3 triples In theory, but how often does a player hit 3 triples on one game? Or even one week?
It cites the last player to accomplish this was former Sox 1b coach Al Bumbry in 1973. Not sure about you, but I KNEW this was wrong, and, sadly, was able to recall it being done more recently by former Twins CF Ken Landreaux. Some quick research showed that Landreaux did hit 3 triples against the Rangers on July 3, 1980. How I remember the accomplishment from an obscure Twins outfielder some 34 years ago is beyond me. But more important, why doesn’t SABR remember him?
Anyway I need a home run, or more likely, 2 HRs from Nava to hit the TB. Not likely. Tomorrow the Sox face another lefty in Jose Quintana, and on Friday they face Scott Feldman.
Nava’s career against Feldman? 2 for 5 with 1 HR. JUST shy!!
Do I have a chance here?