Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from MikeNagy. Show MikeNagy's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    It's good to see Lowrie finally healthy and showing what he is capable of. He could win the triple crown and you know who would still dis him. Only one poster I know of, rails on players he has rushed to judgment on, after he has been proven wrong.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    JB3,
     
    791's new home aka ESPN, has yearly stats.  I added the last game of 09 b/c he hit a homer plus this year of course.

    Lowrie played through wrist injury

     Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff October 22, 2008  
     

    Red Sox infielder Jed Lowrie played since May with a sprain and a small non-displaced fracture in his left wrist, aliments that worsened as the season wore on, general manager Theo Epstein said in an e-mail. The minor injuries were revealed Tuesday when Lowrie underwent an MRI. The wrist has already begun to heal itself, Epstein said, and should be back to full strength with three weeks of rest.

    The injuries gave Lowrie occasional pain and affected his grip strength, particularly late in the season, which likely explains his difficulties batting lefthanded. As a righthanded batter, Lowrie hit .338 with a .525 slugging percentage with the Red Sox. Lefthanded, he hit .222 with a .334 slugging percentage.

    Lowrie finished the season on an 8-for-51 (.157) slump, but he played in 52 of the Sox’ 53 games in August and September even as the symptoms worsened. He committed only one error in his rookie regular season, none as a shortstop.

    Lowrie originally suffered the injuries while playing at Triple A Pawtucket in May

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    In Response to Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!:
    [QUOTE]www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/10/lowrie_played_t.html " /> Lowrie played through wrist injury   Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff October 22, 2008       Red Sox infielder Jed Lowrie played since May with a sprain and a small non-displaced fracture in his left wrist, aliments that worsened as the season wore on, general manager Theo Epstein said in an e-mail. The minor injuries were revealed Tuesday when Lowrie underwent an MRI. The wrist has already begun to heal itself, Epstein said, and should be back to full strength with three weeks of rest. The injuries gave Lowrie occasional pain and affected his grip strength, particularly late in the season, which likely explains his difficulties batting lefthanded. As a righthanded batter, Lowrie hit .338 with a .525 slugging percentage with the Red Sox. Lefthanded, he hit .222 with a .334 slugging percentage. Lowrie finished the season on an 8-for-51 (.157) slump, but he played in 52 of the Sox’ 53 games in August and September even as the symptoms worsened. He committed only one error in his rookie regular season, none as a shortstop. Lowrie originally suffered the injuries while playing at Triple A Pawtucket in May
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]
    Thanks for posting the article.  The info in this quote is probably where I (and many others presumably) got the impression of a late-2008 injury:
    Lowrie finished the season on an 8-for-51 (.157) slump, but he played in 52 of the Sox’ 53 games in August and September even as the symptoms worsened. He committed only one error in his rookie regular season, none as a shortstop.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Lowrie struck out, today, facing his only PA against a RHP. As long as Lowrie is facing LHP, he's going to be OK.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Thanks Tom!
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Loftsaw. Show Loftsaw's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Yeah, but did you see that one time he struck out? Total fraud - the true Jedediah exposed. An All-Star MLB shortstop would never do that.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    In Response to Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!:
    [QUOTE]Lowrie struck out, today, facing his only PA against a RHP. As long as Lowrie is facing LHP, he's going to be OK.
    Posted by BaseballGM[/QUOTE]

    hahaa, nice softy.  always a gentle spin back to center for your myopic pet crusades.  gotta hand it to you.  You stick to your guns.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!


    Posts: 617
    First: 3/22/2011
    Last: 4/18/2011
    Lowrie struck out, today, facing his only PA against a RHP





    LOL @ sample size.... good stuff.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan791. Show redsoxfan791's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    791's new home aka ESPN, has yearly stats.  I added the last game of 09 b/c he hit a homer plus this year of course.

    Don't I wish Tom.  Don't I wish.  LOL.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Tom, did you leave out yesterday's game as well?  I show that he had 65 games from 2010 until todays game.  I'm just trying to figure out why it seems inconsistent.  I pieced mine together from fangraphs, and there's a huge gap in SLG.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    So, if we take out Jedi's last 51 AB's from 2008 and all of his godawful 2009 (let's call that his injury slump) I get something that looks like a .305 average with 13 homers and, estimated, 37 doubles in 412 at bats.  Is it reasonable to normalize that to a full season of:
    .305 / 50 2b's / 18 HRs

    I didn't bother with OBP but I'd guess something like .375.

    Granted, we are definitely cherry picking a bit for 2008 and, by necessity for 2011 since he' just been flat out on fire so far this year.  Maybe it's reasonable to say this guy projects talent-wise for this type of line full-season (no injuries)
    .300 / .375 / .450 / 40 2Bs / 15-20 HRs

    Thoughts?  
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Sample size is his career, and last year.

    Here is a great sober post from another poster named "Katz":

    Lowrie's numbers are inflated right now with a big hot streak but he is showing why the RS were high on him.

    I tend to doubt that Lowrie will be the long term future for the RS at SS as he really is a 2B being blocked by the Laser Show. While he is not awful at SS he is limited in his range.

    But I felt he had a good shot at taking major PT away from Scutaro in ST and turns out he is making his bid right now when the RS needed it.

    Iglesias as some have noted certainly has some work to do on his offense and if Lowrie's offense is what the RS think it is (good OBP - gap power) it simply gives the RS the luxury of not having to rush Iglesias into MLB or sign another bridge player like Scutaro for 2012.

    As other teams become more familiar with Lowrie, he'll crash hard. He's been under the radar because he missed about all of 2009 and most of 2010, returning when the Red Sox were out of the playoff race. He can hit LHP well, always the case, but most pitching is RHP and he is less than impressive against RHP. Defensively, he's a 2nd baseman. Very slow on his feet, slow release and not a true SS powerful throwing arm. If Theo is smart, he'll continue to platoon Lowrie at SS against LH starting pitching, backup 3rd, 2nd and 1st, and regular pinch hit duty when he isn't starting. He'll then sell Lowrie high, as the team future needs a solid RH corner OF'er and a solid catcher. Lowrie deserves a chance to try and extablish a career as a 2nd base starter, and it won't be here. 

    Despite the average fans belief that SS is about slugging, over the long baseball season it's all about fielding. A SS who hits .200 and fields the position like a young Ozzie Smith is more valuable to the team . 

    If Theo is competent, he'll set the table for Iglesias in 2012, he has another good young defensive SS backup as well, and sell high on Lowrie. If he falls for the trap of Lowrie the slugging SS he'll make the same mistake he's been making for years at the position. It's all based upon an understanding of what the team already has in the offensive department, and how much more net run difference impact over a full season a high level defensive SS has on the team.   
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Softlaw's "He should only play vs LHP" spiel is weak, and shows how desperate he is. Lowrie's OPS vs RHP was .823 last season, and though the sample size is admittedly miniscule he's hit them well thus far in 2011. Relying on "career splits" heavily influenced by his pre-2010 injured period is a weak crutch. I see no reason why Lowrie shouldn't be in the lineup as much as possible until he shows otherwise.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    In Response to Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!:
    [QUOTE]So, if we take out Jedi's last 51 AB's from 2008 and all of his godawful 2009 (let's call that his injury slump) I get something that looks like a .305 average with 13 homers and, estimated, 37 doubles in 412 at bats.  Is it reasonable to normalize that to a full season of: .305 / 50 2b's / 18 HRs I didn't bother with OBP but I'd guess something like .375. Granted, we are definitely cherry picking a bit for 2008 and, by necessity for 2011 since he' just been flat out on fire so far this year.  Maybe it's reasonable to say this guy projects talent-wise for this type of line full-season (no injuries) .300 / .375 / .450 / 40 2Bs / 15-20 HRs Thoughts?  
    Posted by 111SoxFan111[/QUOTE]The BA and OBP might be slightly inflated in that projection and 15 HR is probably close to his ceiling but just the same a .280/.355/.425 SS with 40 2B and 15 HR not bad. It is pretty much league average for SS.

    And the goal is to have league average or above at every position if possible.

    If people stop a minute and do not engage in euphoria or disdain about Lowrie and/or Scutaro they would see this is a nice place to be. Two guys who can play multiple spots in infield with adequate leather and league average offense.

    Lowrie in particular would be a "happy" for the RS if he is what the RS think he is because in the short run (2011-2012) he gives them a legitimate MLB who can man SS while Navarro and Inglesias develop, without the need to rush one of the two to MLB in 2012 or pay a premium for another bridge SS like they had to with Marco Scutaro in 2010.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    "A SS who hits .200 and fields the position like a young Ozzie Smith is more valuable to the team . "

    You don't specify what an Ozzie-esque short stop is more valuable than, but let's assume a line like this one and average defensive stats:
    .300 / .375 / .450 / 40 2Bs / 15-20 HRs

    Can you back up your statement with math ... i.e., runs prevented vs. extra runs gained?  

    Also, I think this statement has as much wisdom as anything else posted:
    "I see no reason why Lowrie shouldn't be in the lineup as much as possible until he shows otherwise."

    I'll trust Tito's wisdom to determine at what position and at the expense of who's playing time.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from crono420. Show crono420's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    In Response to Nice Try Jed Lowrie!:
    [QUOTE]I don't buy the Lowrie everyday slugging SS story (should platoon against LHP), primarily because of his limitations against RHP and his lack of range and foot quickness and slow throwing release. He's popped up for a wind blown single, and had a check swinging bunt single against the RHP. But I'm going to give credit where credit is due. Lowrie made a nice try on that tough in the hole play in the 7th inning, nothing to be ashamed about it because he would have had him if he had taken a little off the lob throw because it was a slower runner. As I write this, he took his eye off the easy little league DP ball, but that will happen to anyone who plays a lot of SS. That ends Lester's day, which is outstanding because he did not have his best stuff.  I think it's important for fans to deflate the Lowrie expectations and allow him to mature. He's really a 2nd baseman, but if he's platooned he will excel and avoid the unrelastic expectations that have overinflated from his part-time duty of a year ago and his early part-time duty start to the season. He fits really well platooning v. LHP at SS and backing up 3rd, 2B, 1B and as a valuable pinch hitter option off the bench.  Scutaro has the biggest hit of the year to beat the Yankees, and had a very good SS year vs. his peers, a year ago. Dropping Scutaro down to around 120 starts at SS and using Lowrie vs. most LHP is an excellent formula for this team. Lowrie would get about 60 starts at SS, 10 at 2B, 12 at 1B, and about 30 at 3B when Youk DH's against the tougher Lefty starters on Ortiz. That's about 112 starts, and he'll see a  lot of pinch hit and late inning playing time on top of that. It keeps expectations under control and puts Lowrie in the best position to help this team and succeed with his skill set.  The Red Sox had Lowrie's role correct, this spring, given the team in place.  The last thing that is needed is for fans to pressure management into starting Lowrie everyday and then expecting him to be an All-Star SS who hits at a high level vs. RHP. It's not in Lowrie's best interest or the best interest of the team.  Iglesias should be the starting SS for 2012, and fans need to leave him a lone if he hits .200. Lowrie deserves a chance to play everyday at 2B, where he has a chance to have a pretty good and longer MLB career. They could keep him where he'd be a solid contributor in the role he's in, but that's not fair to Lowrie. He's not a 3B or SS on an everday career basis, but 2B would allow him his best chance to excel. It's a good problem to have, but going forward to 2012, the Red Sox and Lowrie would probably both benefit with a trade. The Red Sox need a good catcher and a good young RH OF'er, and I'm sure there are teams out there that would like to give Lowrie a shot as an everyday 2nd bagger. 
    Posted by BaseballGM[/QUOTE]

    lowrie is a star, keep it at short or lose every game. Trade him , what a terrible thing to say, are you theo epstein
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    The BA and OBP might be slightly inflated in that projection and 15 HR is probably close to his ceiling but just the same a .280/.355/.425 SS with 40 2B and 15 HR not bad. It is pretty much league average for SS.

    MLB avg from all AB (162 games) from SS postion 2010:

    .262   .318   .373   .690

    AL only:

    .257   .310   .356   .666

    12 hr in 205 AB = 15 hr avg ?

    Jed Lowrie might have Wally Pipp'ed Marco Scutaro

    12:52 PM Mon, Apr 18, 2011 |
    Brian MacPherson

    BOSTON -- Theo Epstein might be making calls already.

    Jed Lowrie hit a two-run home run over the Green Monster in the fifth inning on Monday, a shot that boosted his slash line this season to .517/.548/.793 -- a stunning 1.341 OPS. That type of production, of course, will not keep up. But Lowrie now is hitting .320 with a .404 on-base percentage and .565 slugging percentage since he returned from mononucleosis last July, making him easily one of the most productive shortstops in baseball.

    Terry Francona forever will respect the professionalism of Scutaro, who played through an onslaught of maladies last season while others were dropping like flies. But there's no way he can put Scutaro back in his starting lineup, not while Lowrie is hitting like he's hitting now.

    A first-round draft pick in 2005, Lowrie has a lengthy track record of success -- even lengthier than that of Scutaro, for most of his career a utility infielder. Lowrie hit .317 with a .416 on-base percentage and .594 slugging percentage his junior year at Stanford, and he hit .298 with a .393 on-base percentage and .503 slugging percentage in his final full minor-league season before a wrist injury sidetracked his ascension.

    The average American League shortstop this season is hitting .252 with a .310 on-base percentage this season. Plenty of teams could use a shortstop who can play steady defense and turn in an above-average on-base percentage for the No. 8 or No. 9 spot in the batting order.

    Heck, if the Red Sox still need a backup infielder, Yamaico Navarro hit .275 with a .365 on-base percentage in more than 400 minor-league plate appearances last season, and he's crushing the ball for Triple-A Pawtucket so far this season.

    If Theo Epstein can get an offer he likes, it's hard to believe Scutaro is long for Boston.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    FiveKatz: agreed that my method might inflate his projected AVG & OBP.  Keep in mind though that these are his actual career stats at this time (in 530 ABs):
    .263 / .344 / .436 / 43 2Bs / 15 HRs

    If we can agree that his career numbers were somewhat lower than his potential, then I think it follows that your #'s are on the low side considering you project his SLG% to be lower than his career actual.  If I were going to go with your lowered expectations I'd probably still come up with this line:
    .280 / .360 / .450 / 40-45 2Bs / 15 HRs

    Also, I think you overestimate league average offense for shortstops.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Lowrie is absolutely raking and a rhp or lhp seems to  be pretty irrelevant at least at the moment.  His trajectory to  that of an everyday player has been hard fought and to his credit he is making the most of it which is all anyone can ever ask from any player!
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    In Response to Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!:
    [QUOTE]JB3  you are right my bad Last 67   (38) +  (2 x 16) + 0  + (4 x 12) = 118/205= .575 Toronto announcers said that Tito called Scutaro after Sat. game to tell him Lowrie would be starting.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    That looks a lot better.  I didn't have his numbers from today's game in there, or the last one from 2009 since the 2009 one seemed a bit too much like cherry picking for my taste, but to each his own (also I didn't bother to check it Tongue out)

    Also, why would Tito call Scutaro and not just talk to him about it?  Not to nit-pick, but that doesn't seem like a very good way to manage (although better than a text I guess).  I thought that Tito was more personable than that, maybe I was wrong (or he could have had an emergency to attend to, I have no way of knowing).
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    In Response to Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!:
    [QUOTE]The BA and OBP might be slightly inflated in that projection and 15 HR is probably close to his ceiling but just the same a .280/.355/.425 SS with 40 2B and 15 HR not bad. It is pretty much league average for SS. MLB avg from all AB (162 games) from SS postion 2010: .262   .318   .373   .690 AL only: .257   .310   .356   .666 12 hr in 205 AB = 15 hr avg ?
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]Two thoughts.

    The first is that I think that 205 sample set is some what skewed and that if Lowrie has 500 plus ABs he will go through extended periods without HRs. And Jed Lowrie is going to start to become more of a topic in pre-game planning as time goes on and he will see better plans of attack and have to adjust to those. Very non-scientific mind you but it is my opinion. I'd love to be wrong BTW because that is all the better for the RS.

    As for league average, thanks for the stats, they were slightly lower than I would have guessed.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Mr Katz

    An example of the league adjusting to a newish player could be Gardner (hopefully not with our J-Lo).  Last year he saw 56% first pitch strikes this year 67%.  I am sure men on bar stools all over in 2010 said why don't they make Gardner swing, they were right.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    In Response to Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie! : Two thoughts. The first is that I think that 205 sample set is some what skewed and that if Lowrie has 500 plus ABs he will go through extended periods without HRs. And Jed Lowrie is going to start to become more of a topic in pre-game planning as time goes on and he will see better plans of attack and have to adjust to those. Very non-scientific mind you but it is my opinion. I'd love to be wrong BTW because that is all the better for the RS. As for league average, thanks for the stats, they were slightly lower than I would have guessed.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    I don't think Tom meant to imply that Jed would hit 30+ HR's, obviously the standard small sample size warning applies to the 205 AB set.  I will say that that's the only real data available at the MLB level for a healthy Jed however.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Lowrie's OPS vs RHP was .823 last season, and though the sample size is admittedly miniscule he's hit them well thus far in 2011

    In 2010, he came in at the end of the season when the Red Sox were out of the playoffs. The sample size was small. In addition, in that small sample size, his BA v. RHP was .250. The OPS is to easy to skew for that kind of smaple size. Same is true for the BA, but he wasn't hurt for a large part of 2008, which is his only larger sample size.

    This year, he has what happens to players who have small sample hot streaks. He's getting wind blown pop-up hits. Lowrie has no extra base hits in 13 AB's v. RHP, yet his slugging is .462 with one RBI. Scutaro v. RHP, has 6 RBI's, one a game winner v. the Yankees, but only has a .304 slugging.

    Averages now mean nothing, nor do a couple of month samples indicate the kind of splits that will be in the career average ranges.

    It's easy to stand on a soap box in now proclaim Lowrie as this league leading slugging All-Star SS who "must start everyday". A more discerning eye would continue to keep him in the role he was in and platoon him v. LH starting pitching and keep Scutaro hitting most RH starting pitching where he has good SS hitting averages v. RHP where, in the last 3 years, Scutaro has a BA of .276, .349 OBP and .727 OPS. Scutaro is also a 2nd baseman, but he's a better defensive SS than Lowrie because he is quicker and faster than Lowrie and he has a quicker release and stronger throwing arm.

    To take Lowrie's 2010 snipet sample v. RHP isn't enough to justify benching Scutaro at SS v. most RH starting pitching because even the 2010 numbers on BA, OBP included has Scutaro's 3 year full-time numbers better than Lowrie.

    Lowrie is also a better fit as a backup 1st and 3rd and pinch hit option than Scutaro, he fits the role better.

    Management got these roles right, with a long study after last season. To listen to fans go nuts after a few weeks and changing the roles would not be in the best interest of the team.

    The reality is that Lowrie has worked in this role, not as the everday starting SS. Continuing to start him against most LH starting pitchers is working. Why on earth change it?

    Lastly, long term, is it in the best interest of the team to bury Scutaro on the bench and collect a lot of rust when Lowrie has yet to prove he can endure a full season of wear and tear as an everyday SS.

    I think it's clear cut, they need to stay with what has been working, and that's getting Lowrie in v. most LH starting pitching and going with Scutaro against most RH starting pitching, and keeping Lowrie as the backup at the other infield slots. It's more likely to keep both healthy and the most productive for the entire season, and it fits the team needs better.

    If people will notice, yesterday, Lowrie didn't have a single impressive bat v. that RHP. He had a wind blown pop up "hit", a check swinging bunt "hit", and they gave him one hit v. the LHP. He also make a little league error on the easy double play ball and rushed the throw on the tougher chance in the hole against a slower runner.

    Katz is right, big mistake to start going nuts about the need to start Lowrie at SS everday and change the role that has been working. He did not play everday, frequent days off, when he put up the short sample stats of 2010. If it works, don't try and fix it.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Nice Try Jed Lowrie!

    Geez you get entrenched in position ... but I repeat the entire board there.  

    Lowrie is being what he was always projected to be: an exceptional hitter.  Yes, he is on a hot streak and won't hit .500 for the season but he is, beyond any doubt, a better hitter than Scutaro.  I really love Scutaro.  What he did last year while injured was nothing short of heroic.  But this BS of Lowrie being anything but a full time player is pretty pathetic.  

    FWIW, Scutaro will still get a decent amount of starts at SS.  Lowrie will get the same # of PAs as most starters but will have days at 2B and 3B as well as some days off.  Assume Scoots will get about 1/2 as many PAs as a starter going forward.
    /thread
     

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