Nice Young Rotations

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    When Oakland traded away Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill before the 2012 season, I predicted the A's to finish in last in their division.  

    But I was amazed how their rookie starting rotation picked up the slack and helped the team win the AL West.  

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     



    True, but all things being equal, I'll take 24-27 and great vs 29-31 and great.

     

     



    I'd take the '29-31 and great'

     not only are they more pitching savvy

    odds favor they already had their  TJ surgery

     

     



    ...and will be a FA in 1-2 years.

     



    I'm a yankeefan moon

    it's all about this yr

    not next yr or 2 yrs from now;-)

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to BMav's comment:

    TORONTO!

    Josh Johnson--11.05---2.73
    R.A. Dickey--8.44---1.97
    Mark Buehrle--10.24---1.76
    Brandon Morrow--5.59---1.97

     

    Oh, you meant BEST young staff.

    I might throw Texas into the mix since they have to pitch in a hitters park. And all 5 starters are in their 20's.



    Let's look at these numbers in a few months.

    I'll take the Nats with 3 - 27 year old guys under 2.08 and then add Strasburg.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     



    True, but all things being equal, I'll take 24-27 and great vs 29-31 and great.

     

     



    I'd take the '29-31 and great'

     not only are they more pitching savvy

    odds favor they already had their  TJ surgery

     

     



    ...and will be a FA in 1-2 years.

     

     



    I'm a yankeefan moon

    it's all about this yr

    not next yr or 2 yrs from now;-)

     



    ...and that mentality is finally coming back to haunt the Yanks.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from the-redsox-rule. Show the-redsox-rule's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    I really like what Washington has done, put that rotation with the budding superstar Bryce Harper and that's a team that's going to contend for a long time.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    Why the obsession with young pitching?

    Know how many World Series champions had 130 or more starts from pitchers under 27 on the last 40 years?

    Zero...

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to notin's comment:

    Why the obsession with young pitching?

    Know how many World Series champions had 130 or more starts from pitchers under 27 on the last 40 years?

    Zero...

     

     




    Where do you get all your data from. Amazing!

     

    That being said, it's not all about "this year" for most GMs, although I do think the young staffs I listed are good enough to lead their teams to a ring and break the 40 year trend.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    When Oakland traded away Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill before the 2012 season, I predicted the A's to finish in last in their division.  

    But I was amazed how their rookie starting rotation picked up the slack and helped the team win the AL West.  

     



    Gio Gonzalez is a juicer and Trevor Cahill isnt any good.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    TORONTO!

    Josh Johnson--11.05---2.73
    R.A. Dickey--8.44---1.97
    Mark Buehrle--10.24---1.76
    Brandon Morrow--5.59---1.97

     

    Oh, you meant BEST young staff.

    I might throw Texas into the mix since they have to pitch in a hitters park. And all 5 starters are in their 20's.

     



    Let's look at these numbers in a few months.

     

    I'll take the Nats with 3 - 27 year old guys under 2.08 and then add Strasburg.



    Its got to be the Nats.

    However, if you had to create a pitching staff based on only prospects, the Sox might win:

    Webster

    Barnes

    De La Rosa

    Owens

    Wright

    We have some electric young arms on the way.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to the-redsox-rule's comment:

    I really like what Washington has done, put that rotation with the budding superstar Bryce Harper and that's a team that's going to contend for a long time.



    They didnt get enough for Morse.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to notin's comment:

    Why the obsession with young pitching?

    Know how many World Series champions had 130 or more starts from pitchers under 27 on the last 40 years?

    Zero...

     

     



    Notin, you know the answer to this!  Because everyone wants to find the "next big thing."  Nobody wants to talk about Lester / Buchholz...They want to talk about the next guy coming up, despite the fact that Lester and Buchh are both young.

    We've always overrated youth here in Boston.  Half of us dont want Ortiz back for goodness sake because we'd rather see that job go to prospect x.  Half of the half , dont even know who prospect x is.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to the-redsox-rule's comment:

     

    I really like what Washington has done, put that rotation with the budding superstar Bryce Harper and that's a team that's going to contend for a long time.

     



    They didnt get enough for Morse.

     



    Remember when your bud, softy, called morse a bum? Now, he talks of Coco Crisp, but cricketts on Morse.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    Why the obsession with young pitching?

    Know how many World Series champions had 130 or more starts from pitchers under 27 on the last 40 years?

    Zero...

     

     

     



    Notin, you know the answer to this!  Because everyone wants to find the "next big thing."  Nobody wants to talk about Lester / Buchholz...They want to talk about the nextguy coming up, despite the fact that Lester and Buchh are both young.

     

    We've always overrated youth here in Boston.  Half of us dont want Ortiz back for goodness sake because we'd rather see that job go to prospect x.  Half of the half , dont even know who prospect x is.



    I think notin would trade Lester for Brett Anderson or Mike Moore or ...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    The relatively low cost of young starters also plays into the equation. They allow the team to spend on other high need areas.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    I'm a yankeefan moon

    it's all about this yr

    not next yr or 2 yrs from now;-)


    ...and that mentality is finally coming back to haunt the Yanks.



    Yeah, after making the playoffs 16 out of 17 years.  And they might make it again this year, who knows.  We can knock the Yankee philosophy all we want but 16 for 17 is an incredible run that any team would love to have.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    Why the obsession with young pitching?

    Know how many World Series champions had 130 or more starts from pitchers under 27 on the last 40 years?

    Zero...

     

     

     



    Notin, you know the answer to this!  Because everyone wants to find the "next big thing."  Nobody wants to talk about Lester / Buchholz...They want to talk about the nextguy coming up, despite the fact that Lester and Buchh are both young.

     

    We've always overrated youth here in Boston.  Half of us dont want Ortiz back for goodness sake because we'd rather see that job go to prospect x.  Half of the half , dont even know who prospect x is.

     



    I think notin would trade Lester for Brett Anderson or Mike Moore or ...

     



    That is completely underrating Lester.  Dont forget that lefties generally struggle in Fenway.  Too easy for righties to pull the ball off the wall, when there is a runner on second w/ anything better than "catcher speed."

    Also: he's been durable.  Dont undervalue that.  Also: he's proven he can handle Boston, dont undervalue that.  Less than 33% of the prospects who are expected to be better than Lester will actually turn out to be better than Lester.

    Matt Moore straight up: yes

    Brett Anderson straight up: Probably not.  

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    Moon, health is more important than age.

    Brandon McCarthy may be much younger than Dempster, but Dempster's arm isnt hanging on by a thread like McCarthy's is.

    I dont know too much about the nature of Anderson's histories, but I know that Lester has given you 30+ starts each of the last five years.  Anderson hasn't gotten to 20 since his rookie season.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     


    I'm a yankeefan moon

    it's all about this yr

    not next yr or 2 yrs from now;-)


    ...and that mentality is finally coming back to haunt the Yanks.

     



    Yeah, after making the playoffs 16 out of 17 years.  And they might make it again this year, who knows.  We can knock the Yankee philosophy all we want but 16 for 17 is an incredible run that any team would love to have.

     



    Exactly!!!!  Its amazing to me that people want us to follow the Pirates/Padres model (every year you are in year 1 of a 4 year rebuilding plan)  than the Yankee model.

    Boston market is closer to NY than any other market.  NY has been far more successful than any other team.  We should find our own model; however, this model should look more like NY than it should like the Pirates.

    Buy hitting, develop pitching (thats my model at least)

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     


    I'm a yankeefan moon

    it's all about this yr

    not next yr or 2 yrs from now;-)


    ...and that mentality is finally coming back to haunt the Yanks.

     



    Yeah, after making the playoffs 16 out of 17 years.  And they might make it again this year, who knows.  We can knock the Yankee philosophy all we want but 16 for 17 is an incredible run that any team would love to have.

     



    The emphasis was on "finally".

    I've been thinking it was going to catch up to them for 3 years, but you are right, they did well under that plan for a long time.

    The issue is now. I think they might wish they had some of their kids back. Some of their signings revoked.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    Why the obsession with young pitching?

    Know how many World Series champions had 130 or more starts from pitchers under 27 on the last 40 years?

    Zero...

     

     

     



    Notin, you know the answer to this!  Because everyone wants to find the "next big thing."  Nobody wants to talk about Lester / Buchholz...They want to talk about the nextguy coming up, despite the fact that Lester and Buchh are both young.

     

    We've always overrated youth here in Boston.  Half of us dont want Ortiz back for goodness sake because we'd rather see that job go to prospect x.  Half of the half , dont even know who prospect x is.

     



    I think notin would trade Lester for Brett Anderson or Mike Moore or ...

     

     



    That is completely underrating Lester.  Dont forget that lefties generally struggle in Fenway.  Too easy for righties to pull the ball off the wall, when there is a runner on second w/ anything better than "catcher speed."

     

    Also: he's been durable.  Dont undervalue that.  Also: he's proven he can handle Boston, dont undervalue that.  Less than 33% of the prospects who are expected to be better than Lester will actually turn out to be better than Lester.

    Matt Moore straight up: yes

    Brett Anderson straight up: Probably not.  

     



    I know notin really likes Anderson. That's why I mentioned him.

    It's not underrating Lester to like some other great young starters who are getting paid peanuts and under team control for longer than Lester as a better Sox option going forward.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     



    The emphasis was on "finally".

     

    I've been thinking it was going to catch up to them for 3 years, but you are right, they did well under that plan for a long time.

    The issue is now. I think they might wish they had some of their kids back. Some of their signings revoked.



    thing is

    it isn't age or trading their kids

    that is killing the yanks

    it's bud selig

    and he should get more credit than he does for it

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    Moon, health is more important than age.

    Brandon McCarthy may be much younger than Dempster, but Dempster's arm isnt hanging on by a thread like McCarthy's is.

    I dont know too much about the nature of Anderson's histories, but I know that Lester has given you 30+ starts each of the last five years.  Anderson hasn't gotten to 20 since his rookie season.



    I'd take Brandon for 3 years at the same cost of Dempster for 2 years. I know the injury risk, but I'm thinking about 2015.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    Moon, health is more important than age.

    Brandon McCarthy may be much younger than Dempster, but Dempster's arm isnt hanging on by a thread like McCarthy's is.

    I dont know too much about the nature of Anderson's histories, but I know that Lester has given you 30+ starts each of the last five years.  Anderson hasn't gotten to 20 since his rookie season.



    Drew, I really respect you as a poster, despite your ties with softy, but first you say I am "completely underrating Lester" by saying notin might trade him for Moore or Anderson. Then, you say you'd trade him for Moore, yourself. That doesn't sound "complete" to me.

    Now, you say you don't know about Anderson that much. Well, you are right, he hasn't pitched much but he is a tremendous young pitcher (just turned 25) who is cheaper and controlled longer than Lester:

    13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout),15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout)

    If we can extend Lester at a cheap cost, I'd call it even.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Nice Young Rotations

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    Why the obsession with young pitching?

    Know how many World Series champions had 130 or more starts from pitchers under 27 on the last 40 years?

    Zero...

     

     

     




     

    Where do you get all your data from. Amazing!

     

    That being said, it's not all about "this year" for most GMs, although I do think the young staffs I listed are good enough to lead their teams to a ring and break the 40 year trend.



    1.  All data from baseball-reference.com

     

    2.  I probably should mention that I stopped looking after 40 years.

     

    3.  Some caveats worth mentioning.

    The 1981 Dodgers only played 110 gaems, but 102 of them were started by pitchers 27 and under.

     

    THe 1986 Mets had only 119 starts from pitchers 27 and under, and 30 more started by 28yo Bob Ojeda.

     

    The 2002 Marlins had 126 strts from pitchers 26 and under, with 29yo Mark Redman starting 29 of them.   Redman replaced the injured AJ Burnett (then 26), who started only 4 games that year.

     

    It also might be worth noting that fans want the "young pitching" because they think it leads to a dynasty.  All of the caveats mentioned here were one-shot titles...

     

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