No team has Ellsbury as their "#1 priority"

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    No, past performance does not guarantee future results.  Almost any player who uses Boras should be avoided when a FA.  Ells will probably not live up to his next contract, few do.  Werth, Crawford, Fielder,.....

    I was poking fun at Dr. Hill, who often post cumulative WAR.   He sadi Ells was a "good" player, after mostly pointing out flaws in ells in years past.  My point is that Ells has been great, not good.  Dr. Hill failed to own up to his mistake on Ells.  

    You point out the 2011 fluke but fail to mention the 13th highest WAR in MLB in 2013.  Give ells his due over the last three years.   Even if his his 2011 was just like his 2013 he has been great.  Here is age 27 - 29 years ranked by WAR:

    Laughing

    Here is my response to your question to me in this thread:

     

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    posted at 11/18/2013 1:11 PM EST

    • hill55
    • Posts: 8098
    • First: 1/14/2006
    • Last: 11/20/2013

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    Dr. Hill, we had many an argument a few years back about Ells. When Sox fans were excited about him you were quick to show unflattering comparisons or bring up Erstad (I must say I also worried a bit).

    Last three years, despite missing loads of 2012, 16.3 WAR has him as the third best OF in MLB.

    Mea culpa?

    I raised the Darin Erstad comp after Jacoby Ellsbury's spectacular 2011 season that resembled Erstad's 2000 season.

    Ellsbury fell short of my expectations in 2012 and exceeded my expectations in 2013.

    Ellsbury is a good player.

     

    In other words, my expectations of Jacoby Ellsbury were wrong two years running.

    The 2014 Steamer* projections have Ellsbury ranked in a tie for 28th in WAR among position players:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?p os=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&players=0&sort=22,d

    That projection** supports my conclusion that Jacoby Ellsbury is a good player. Feel free to dispute my conclusion that Ellsbury is a good player.Wink

    By the way, thanks for posting the link to Dave Cameron's FanGraphs piece that casts Ellsbury in a favorable light going forward. I was about to post it.

    *  http://steamerprojections.com/blog/about/

    ** delete the space between "p" and "os" on the link. BDC.com apparently won't permit those letters to appear consecutively.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jader. Show jader's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Red Sox are still in the mix for all Red Sox's free agents.  Ben C just sit and wait until their asking price goes down.

    It is possible that Ben C. have a good chance to retain at least two of these top four free agents!!

    My preference in order is Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli and Salty!!

    [/QUOTE]


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jader. Show jader's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their


    Agree to all but Salty, I'd let him walk

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their


    Ellsbury should re-sign with the Red Sox.  If he can get a 5 year deal - he will be MUCH better off playing in Boston where he is like and the team is set to compete and the fans are excited about baseball.

    But Boras will probably talk him into going to a ridiculous location like Seattle - which will ruin Ellsbury

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Ellsbury should re-sign with the Red Sox.  If he can get a 5 year deal - he will be MUCH better off playing in Boston where he is like and the team is set to compete and the fans are excited about baseball.

    But Boras will probably talk him into going to a ridiculous location like Seattle - which will ruin Ellsbury

    [/QUOTE]


    Not to worry...   As it has been reported........  Ells will re-sign with the Red Sox close to years end, with a 6 year 18.5M, 108.3M deal.

    I'm good with this deal.  Way to be BC....  Sox need to stay strong up the middle.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    The St. Louis Cardinals reportedly have traded for Angels centerfielder Peter Bourjos, presumably eliminating a potential suitor for Jacoby Ellsbury:

    https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/403965572146556928

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    My sources tell me that Ells is coming to terms with the fact that there is NO team willing to pay him 20+M 6+yrs.  He wants to negotiate the likely deal with the Red Sox, who want to offer him $17.5M / 6 yr deal.  Ells wants 18.5M / 6yrs, but would likely jump at 18M / 6yrs.  Boras is the big stumbling block! & is demanding that he hold out for the 20+M, despite the market clearly drying up.  Sources say Ells wants to make a deal, & build up good will with RS fans, who he has come to love & respect.  He's losing patience with Boras, & is likely to force the deal.  He may even jump to to 17.5 to expedite the deal.  Merry Christmas RS fans!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    Btw....  Ells wants to build his HOF career with the girl who brung him to the dance!  He fears a fizzle to that end, a la Freddy Lynn!  he knows he can play in Boston, & that's weighing heavy on his mind!

    a deal will be done by Christmas!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Btw....  Ells wants to build his HOF career with the girl who brung him to the dance!  He fears a fizzle to that end, a la Freddy Lynn!  he knows he can play in Boston, & that's weighing heavy on his mind!

    a deal will be done by Christmas!

    [/QUOTE]


    "brung him"??   I'm flabbergasted.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to chris2's comment:

    You must not be from the Boston area, very typical word around here, like the Monsta.

    I believe ampoule and Jacoby Ellsbury are my fellow Oregonians.


     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to chris2's comment:

    You must not be from the Boston area, very typical word around here, like the Monsta.

    I believe ampoule and Jacoby Ellsbury are my fellow Oregonians.


    [/QUOTE]


     

    I didn't know you live here in Oregon Hill.  N or S?  Amp & I are down in the Southern Oregon Burg.  

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    P.s.  I think Amp is familiar with the saying "dance with the girl who brung ya."  Just a little mock outrage :)

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    P.s.   my sources are ex OSU baseball players.  It's looking & sounding good boys!  Ells will be back in CF at Fenway :).  Hope I don't break any confidence, but I don't think these boys read, let alone read BDC.  Just kidding!  Smart & plugged in!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    P.s.   my sources are ex OSU baseball players.  It's looking & sounding good boys!  Ells will be back in CF at Fenway :).  Hope I don't break any confidence, but I don't think these boys read, let alone read BDC.  Just kidding!  Smart & plugged in!

    [/QUOTE]

    Are you "plugged in" to the same wall outlet that Pike is plugged into?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

     Follow Jacoby EllsburyVerified account@JacobyEllsbury

    Happy to be in Hawaii supporting @ShaneVictorino and @SVictorinoFdtn! #Aloha pic.twitter.com/RQtvFWtEXp

        Embedded image permalink
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    P.s.   my sources are ex OSU baseball players.  It's looking & sounding good boys!  Ells will be back in CF at Fenway :).  Hope I don't break any confidence, but I don't think these boys read, let alone read BDC.  Just kidding!  Smart & plugged in!



    Are you "plugged in" to the same wall outlet that Pike is plugged into?

    [/QUOTE]


    Relax there Pump!  Just passing on some inside info...   Could be right on the money.  I guess we'll see soon enough.  Then you can either tell me I was full of it, or do another mea culpa, as you had to do at the end of this historic season that you got so wrong.  Hey, I didn't dog you for your wrongheaded predictions.  just as I won't gloat when Ells is re-signed.  Not even with you. Lighten up Francis ;)

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

    I didn't know you live here in Oregon Hill.  N or S?  Amp & I are down in the Southern Oregon Burg.  

    I've lived in Portland for 19 years, but I had a work-related flashback to Roseburg on Friday.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to raider3524's comment:
    [QUOTE] Follow Jacoby EllsburyVerified account@JacobyEllsbury

    Happy to be in Hawaii supporting @ShaneVictorino and @SVictorinoFdtn! #Aloha pic.twitter.com/RQtvFWtEXp

     

      Embedded image permalink[/QUOTE]

    Good Post!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    P.s.   my sources are ex OSU baseball players.  It's looking & sounding good boys!  Ells will be back in CF at Fenway :).  Hope I don't break any confidence, but I don't think these boys read, let alone read BDC.  Just kidding!  Smart & plugged in!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Are you "plugged in" to the same wall outlet that Pike is plugged into?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Relax there Pump!  Just passing on some inside info...   Could be right on the money.  I guess we'll see soon enough.  Then you can either tell me I was full of it, or do another mea culpa, as you had to do at the end of this historic season that you got so wrong.  Hey, I didn't dog you for your wrongheaded predictions.  just as I won't gloat when Ells is re-signed.  Not even with you. Lighten up Francis ;)

    [/QUOTE]

    Your inside info seems very believable. I said this offseason that I would do 5-90. Well, 6-105 is pretty close to that. That extra year is a little tough, but do I prefer guaranteeing that extra  age 35 season of Ellsbury at 17.5 or the 37-38-39 seasons of Beltran  at 15 million?

     

    Also, I am starting to run out of guys I like to spend the money on. If we trade for Hanigan which is my preffered route at catcher and don't sign Drew or let Napoli go because of the length of his contract, where should our 30 million be spent? Seems like the 5-6 WAR Ellsbury is as good a place as any.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to chris2's comment:

    You must not be from the Boston area, very typical word around here, like the Monsta.

    I believe ampoule and Jacoby Ellsbury are my fellow Oregonians.


    [/QUOTE]


    Actually, I'm originally from Western Mass.....closer to Hartford than Boston....moved to Az. in 1976...then here to Southern Oregon.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their

    In response to ampoule's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to chris2's comment:

    You must not be from the Boston area, very typical word around here, like the Monsta.

    I believe ampoule and Jacoby Ellsbury are my fellow Oregonians.


    [/QUOTE]


    Actually, I'm originally from Western Mass.....closer to Hartford than Boston....moved to Az. in 1976...then here to Southern Oregon.

    [/QUOTE]


    Used to live in Northampton Amp.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: No team has Ellsbury as their


    I feel that Dirt Dog information is accurate.

    It seems that Ells has 'morphed' into a love affair with Boston.  Once upon a time with all the negative injury information which was being fed to us, misdiagnosis, on top of the the not so positive comments that Youkilis made about him and the rehab location, I never thought in a million years he'd re-sign with us.

    Well, it now looks like things have changed.  The bad blood seems to have evaporated.  I actually see a smile on his face.  And, I think the fact that chemistry is so much better now than it has been has a lot to do with it. 

    I certainly hope that he does re-sign with us. 

     
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