Re: No team has Ellsbury as their
posted at 11/24/2013 1:07 PM EST
In response to southpaw777's comment:
In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
P.s. yes, the sox have other holes to fill.... But, they realize that it would likely cost 14M / yr ad hoc to to fill CF each year for the next 6 years to remain competitive. The question becomes, can they get a FA CF'r who can fill this position anywhere near what Ells would provide, and is it worth the 4M / yr extra to sign Ells? Do we gamble & assume we can fill that slot on a yearly ad hoc basis, giving up what we know Ells will likely bring to the table year in & year out over the extra 4M / year, or do we bite the bullet, a potential HOF CF'r the market value he has earned?
I wouldnt go that far....
Do we match a 20M / 6 yr deal if a team steps up & offers? I say no. But I don't see a Seattle stepping up & making that kind of offer. Ells inot a game changer type player. Is he worth 18.5M / 5 yrs? I thinks so!!! It's the 6th year that is the tough call!!!! there in lies the sticking point!!! do the sox let him walk over a 6th year? Quite possibly. Will Ells walk over a 6th year, or accept a team option for a 6th year?
My top offer is 6/108M
I admit my sources are a bit shoestring..... But I think he is likely to sign with a team 6th year option at the 18.5M / 5 yr deal. Admittedly, I understand that Boras is making Ells hold out as long as he can to see if an teams step up to the 20+M /yr 6 yr. marker. The window is not indefinite, as they realize the sox need to nail down this position.
I'm not sure he ever matches what he did in 2011, especially with respect to the power numbers, but if he steps back up & can sustain a 20HR per season avg, his HOF run would be likely. I HIGHLY doubt there was a PED issue, so the 2011 season becomes inexplicable... Unless of course you take Boras at his word that he was doing what the team wanted. Just getting on base & creating havoc. This is partially true, but there is no doubt he was pressing early to come close to replicating 2011 numbers for the big contract. When they realized it wasn't going to happen, they went back to what they knew he could do for sure. If he were to bulk up, sacrificing some speed for bigger pop, his bat speed would very likely result in a surge of the power numbers to 25+ HR's per season. The problem with that is it goes against his strengths, decreases the speed element of his game, and increases the risk of injury & decreased longevity. So how does he get back to HOF numbers????? Stop pressing! & bring back the much maligned reverse-pivot swing! stiffy & his trolls got in his head. When he re-signs with the sox, & stops pressing for a big contract, we will see his power numbers average about 18HR's per season, with his very impressive bat speed & intermittent reverse-pivot swing, as he sits on that inside fastball more often.
as for a potential contract at 6yr / 108M? I think you are very close. In fact, I think it's very close to a likelihood! So long as we don't have a Seattle step up with 20M/6yrs. Highly unlikely! But there could be another Seattle out there willing to make an offer Boras would push Ells to take. Let's hope that doesn't happen, says he could hold sway over such a deal. In that case, the Sox would let him walk. They will not go above 18.5M / 6yrs, & the 6th yr guarantee is still relatively improbable. Sox are pushing hard to stick with the 6th yr team option. They would also like to make that yr. contingent upon production numbers in the out yrs. of yr 4 & 5. Boras is dead set against this! He will stick to a guarantee, putting Ells in a must walk if offered 19M / 6yr. I don't see that money as realistically being out there, so the sox sign him at 18M / 6yr. You are correct! :)
mark it down! This is a likely deal ;). We shall see???????