Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?
posted at 12/21/2011 8:43 PM EST
In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?
In Response to OF help? Why not see about Chris Young? : Young has the proper profile for what we need in RF (right handed, great against LH pitching), but given his youth and salary the cost in both salary and prospects would not be worth it. Repeat after me: as a hitter, Young is not an everyday player. He is an AWFUL hitter against RH pitching...the Sox would hate his OBP. He has tremendous skills, but he's a lot like a young Mike Cameron (with less discipline)...and we know how much Cameron was loved here. Your number projections would never happen because he wouldn't get enough playing him. The Bay comparison is a poor one. Yes, they are both RH, but that's about where it ends. Bay did NOT get a "boost" when he joined the Sox...he had better seasons in Pit and, in fact, only had one bad season before he joined the Mets. He's a really good hitter who is a bit better against LH pitching, but is also plenty good against RH pitching. He didn't offer Young's speed or defense, but his bat more than made up for it. Also, Young has been MUCH better at home in Ari (which is a major hitter's park) than away...if anything, his overall numbers would drop a hair in Boston. hill55, those fangraphs numbers aren't very helpful. A huge part of his "value" comes from defense, which is highly subjective and is still hard to compare to offensive contributions. His hitting contributions were not so special. And even if the defensive value is reliable, he wouldn't offer the same value in Boston if he played RF. Gardner's ranking overall is not a lie, if, again, you trust how defensive values are combined with hitting values. Gardner has been arguably the best fielding OFer the past two years, so that's where that comes from. Same with Zobrist. He's a very good offensive player (great at getting on base) who is a plus at whatever position he plays, and he plays a lot of them. You're right that no talent evaluator would rank Zobrist as a top OFer, as he isn't an OFer to begin with (he's a 2Bman more than anything, but he moves all over the place). He likely is not quite as valuable as his WAR places him, but that fact that you think there's "no way" he's anywhere near that value just goes to show that you don't understand how valuable he really is.
Posted by redsoxu571
I am not saying Zobrist isn't very valuable, but they valued him at about 40mil for 2 years. Zobrist is not anywhere close to a 20mil a year player, I have no problem saying that and I fail to see how that shows how little I understand his value. He's not an 18 a year guy, not 15, not 12, and likely not ever 10. Potentially 10, but that's roughly half what the list had him at, which is not close. I stand by what I said.
I confess I remembered Bay's average going up while he was here, upon further review, my opinion has been overturned. Maybe I was thinking VMart. Beltre? At any rate...
With Young, I didn't realize so many people actually valued him. He garners very little interest in the fantasy sports realm, and nobody every talks about him in the real world. Suddenly, however, he's too expensive, or definitely not good enough. There certainly is no consensus, which is a good thing to me.
At his age, with how he's done, on the team he's been on...I don't know. Anything's certainly possible, but I think he turns into a legit power hitter in Fenway, on this team. 27-29 is where players typically break out, and have their 'prime' years to 31/32. He's just entering that. He quite possibly could have too many bad habits to correct, but he's in the "goldilocks zone" of progression as far as I'm concerned. Most players at his age are likely to do better than they have in the years previous. If his next 4 years are as good or better than last year, sign me up. He'll be well worth 31 over 3.
Beltran? Really? At 34? He played a full season last year...after missing more than half of each of the 2 previous seasons. No thanks.