Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Yeah I saw that right after I posted.  I tend to mix those two up every so often myself.  I remember when I started following the farm system very closely a couple years ago and was mind boggled that ther is three levels of A Ball.  Although I think short season is on level with low a.  I think it's for depth and also a place to plug a lot of late starters and draftees....and then of course we have the gulf coast league and the Dominican summer league.  With all the money being dumped into international signees and scouting I often wonder if the next blue chipper in the form of Bogaerts is a 16-17 year old playing in the summer league this year.

     

    Wild speculation I know.  But with subpar seasons in Boston the last two years I've become a bit obsessed with our minor league system. 

     



    nothing wrong with that. it is the strength of our organization. And it could get a lot better in the upcoming years with all the premium talent at the low levels and the good draft picks we have this year.

     



    Just like last year.  Our system was deep in the lower levels but not well respected because we had no blue chippers, or close to ready guys.  If you were to take out the top 5 prospects I'd say we'd have the same system as last year.  A lot of guys poised to move up in the system, yet we already have some deep talent at the top now.

     
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    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Yeah I saw that right after I posted.  I tend to mix those two up every so often myself.  I remember when I started following the farm system very closely a couple years ago and was mind boggled that ther is three levels of A Ball.  Although I think short season is on level with low a.  I think it's for depth and also a place to plug a lot of late starters and draftees....and then of course we have the gulf coast league and the Dominican summer league.  With all the money being dumped into international signees and scouting I often wonder if the next blue chipper in the form of Bogaerts is a 16-17 year old playing in the summer league this year.

     

    Wild speculation I know.  But with subpar seasons in Boston the last two years I've become a bit obsessed with our minor league system. 

     



    nothing wrong with that. it is the strength of our organization. And it could get a lot better in the upcoming years with all the premium talent at the low levels and the good draft picks we have this year.

     

     




    It's a little early to start speculating about the draft, but it's hard not to get excited about the Sox having the #7 pick. There are some good looking pitchers in this year's draft and Kris Bryant looked like a beast last year.

     



    Frazier, Meadows, Appeal, Stanek are some names I've heard thrown around.  Think there are a few college bats at the top of the boards as well.  I wouldn't mind drafting a big bat who may be able to lock down the middle of the order with Xandy in a few years.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Yeah I saw that right after I posted.  I tend to mix those two up every so often myself.  I remember when I started following the farm system very closely a couple years ago and was mind boggled that ther is three levels of A Ball.  Although I think short season is on level with low a.  I think it's for depth and also a place to plug a lot of late starters and draftees....and then of course we have the gulf coast league and the Dominican summer league.  With all the money being dumped into international signees and scouting I often wonder if the next blue chipper in the form of Bogaerts is a 16-17 year old playing in the summer league this year.

     

    Wild speculation I know.  But with subpar seasons in Boston the last two years I've become a bit obsessed with our minor league system. 

     



    nothing wrong with that. it is the strength of our organization. And it could get a lot better in the upcoming years with all the premium talent at the low levels and the good draft picks we have this year.

     

     




    It's a little early to start speculating about the draft, but it's hard not to get excited about the Sox having the #7 pick. There are some good looking pitchers in this year's draft and Kris Bryant looked like a beast last year.

     

     



    Frazier, Meadows, Appeal, Stanek are some names I've heard thrown around.  Think there are a few college bats at the top of the boards as well.  I wouldn't mind drafting a big bat who may be able to lock down the middle of the order with Xandy in a few years.

     




    Bryant

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to mrmojo1120's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

     

    Nice to read about 5-6 posts and everyone was naming a different young prospect that they were interested in seeing play this year. Guys like Butrey, Kukuk, Jerez, Raunado, Cecchini, and Margot. And none of these are the top guys everyone else has been talking about Barnes/ Webster/De La Rosa/JBJ very good sign for the depth of the RS farm system. The guy I want to see that no one mentioned is Henry Owens, would love to see the big lefty make that next step and would be on the fast track to RS.

     



    Another youngster that really opened some eyes this Spring Training is Christian Vazquez.He's  a pretty good defensive catcher and has got a rocket arm.He's looked impressive throwing runners out during the times I've seen him play on NESN.

     

    All in all,I think the Sox have a pretty good farm system going right now.It's nice to know there's some talent comng up through the ranks. 



    I've always been a fan of defense, and defense starts up the middle.  Imagine if we had Vazquez, Iglesias and JBJ up the middle.  You could throw me into the mix and they'd still have a good defense.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to BMav's comment:

    Normally there is 3-4 players who play in the DSL who are interesting prospects to follow. Last year there was 8 players who played in the DSL who look very interesting and I would put in the Sox top 70 prospects. You probably know about Manuel Margot, the solid 6 tool CFer. Here are the other 7 guys to keep an eye out on in order of my prefference.

    1-Manuel Margot CF 18.5---Top 20 prospect.

    2-Alixon Suarez C 18.7---Was an all star catcher in the DSL last year. Very good defense. Good size. an .824 OPs. Strong winter league performance aswell. I think he is a top 35 prospect.

    3-Raimel Flores SS 18.5---Signed for more[900,000] then Manny Margot. Played very well[.783 OPS] before he got injured. Otherwise I think there would be better buzz. Also think he should be a top 40 prospect.

    4-Dioscar Romero P 17.10---Signed for 600,000. Had a good year last year. Came on at the end of the year.

    5-Victor Ramirez P  17.9---Put up a 1.32 ERA and a .923 WHIP as a 16 year old. Only signed for about 100 grand, but thats still solid money. At least 6-1.

    6-Simon Mercedes P 21.0---Signed for 800,000. Big horse who throws fairly hard. Old for a DSLer. Has not proven he can pitch yet. So I am a little lower on him then some of the scouts.

    7-Enfember Martinez P 17.6---The youngest player arguably pitched the best. A 1.69 ERA and a .969 WHIP. Both he and Ramirez did not strike guys out though.  Very small at 5-11 140. However, since he is so young, there is a lot of upside. Also signed for about 100 grand.

    8-Keivin Heras P 18.5---The least interesting of the 8, but still solid.

    The deepest DSL crop by far the system has ever produced IMO.



    They appear to have signed more international prospects than normal due to the CBA changes coming up. It was probably to be expected that we would have better than average DSL prospects last year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Yeah I saw that right after I posted.  I tend to mix those two up every so often myself.  I remember when I started following the farm system very closely a couple years ago and was mind boggled that ther is three levels of A Ball.  Although I think short season is on level with low a.  I think it's for depth and also a place to plug a lot of late starters and draftees....and then of course we have the gulf coast league and the Dominican summer league.  With all the money being dumped into international signees and scouting I often wonder if the next blue chipper in the form of Bogaerts is a 16-17 year old playing in the summer league this year.

     

    Wild speculation I know.  But with subpar seasons in Boston the last two years I've become a bit obsessed with our minor league system. 

     



    nothing wrong with that. it is the strength of our organization. And it could get a lot better in the upcoming years with all the premium talent at the low levels and the good draft picks we have this year.

     

     




    It's a little early to start speculating about the draft, but it's hard not to get excited about the Sox having the #7 pick. There are some good looking pitchers in this year's draft and Kris Bryant looked like a beast last year.

     

     



    Frazier, Meadows, Appeal, Stanek are some names I've heard thrown around.  Think there are a few college bats at the top of the boards as well.  I wouldn't mind drafting a big bat who may be able to lock down the middle of the order with Xandy in a few years.

     

     




    Bryant

     



    From what I've heard, and I'll admit this is one area I need to research more.  But Kris Bryant and Clint Frazier are the top bats in this draft and they are both destroying college pitching right now.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    A lot of guys could emerge this year. Buttrey, Jacobs, Swihart, Cechinni...even Coyle IMO. I expect at least some of the younger talent to emerge this year as top prospects.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    It's tough to get some perspective on some of those names though just because there isn't a lot of info on them.  For example Dioscar Romero is a name I'm kinda intrigued with. He's very young, had good stats in limited time but I can't find any scouting information on him.  

     




     

    I agree. Can't find much on any of the pitchers as far as velocity and breaking stuff reports.  So its hard to be too bullish on any of them until then.

     

    On the other hand, removing Mercedes, all 7 players played very well statistically last year and all 7 were very young. Also all 8 players got at least 6 figures in signing bonus's. Lot to like.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    It's tough to get some perspective on some of those names though just because there isn't a lot of info on them.  For example Dioscar Romero is a name I'm kinda intrigued with. He's very young, had good stats in limited time but I can't find any scouting information on him.  

     

     




     

     

    I agree. Can't find much on any of the pitchers as far as velocity and breaking stuff reports.  So its hard to be too bullish on any of them until then.

     

    On the other hand, removing Mercedes, all 7 players played very well statistically last year and all 7 were very young. Also all 8 players got at least 6 figures in signing bonus's. Lot to like.



    I guess it's kinda naive to get high on a guy you know nothing about and assume he's good because of his bonus.  So I agree it's hard to be bullish.  But hey got that money for a reason, which warrants some curiosity.  We will have to play the wait and see game.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Hoping for Ranaudo to rebound, he never really had a chance to get going last year.   I think he can still be a starter. I'm very intrigued with Gecchini coming into camp buffed up.  



    I've always been high on Cecchini, even without bulking up.  Reminded me of Mueller.

    Renaudo's been kind of a disappointment, though it is way early.  Barnes, Webster and DLR show a lot of promise, but it is still only 3 guys.  If we could add Renaudo and Owens to the AA mix, we'd hae a deep pool of candidates.

    I'd like to see a little more of Shaw this year.  Considering Youk came as a 3B, it's been about 20 years since we developed a 1B.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Yeah I saw that right after I posted.  I tend to mix those two up every so often myself.  I remember when I started following the farm system very closely a couple years ago and was mind boggled that ther is three levels of A Ball.  Although I think short season is on level with low a.  I think it's for depth and also a place to plug a lot of late starters and draftees....and then of course we have the gulf coast league and the Dominican summer league.  With all the money being dumped into international signees and scouting I often wonder if the next blue chipper in the form of Bogaerts is a 16-17 year old playing in the summer league this year.

     

    Wild speculation I know.  But with subpar seasons in Boston the last two years I've become a bit obsessed with our minor league system. 

     



    nothing wrong with that. it is the strength of our organization. And it could get a lot better in the upcoming years with all the premium talent at the low levels and the good draft picks we have this year.

     

     




    It's a little early to start speculating about the draft, but it's hard not to get excited about the Sox having the #7 pick. There are some good looking pitchers in this year's draft and Kris Bryant looked like a beast last year.

     

     



    Frazier, Meadows, Appeal, Stanek are some names I've heard thrown around.  Think there are a few college bats at the top of the boards as well.  I wouldn't mind drafting a big bat who may be able to lock down the middle of the order with Xandy in a few years.

     




    Sean Manaea, Kohl Stewart and Bobby Wahl are some other pitchers to keep an eye on heading into the rule 4 draft. Austin Meadows is the consensus best position player right now. He's a high school outfielder. The guy I might like to see us take a chance on is Kris Bryant, a 6'5" RH 3B at the University of San Diego who could very well be the middle of the order bat we need at 1B going forward.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    Someone I kind of forgot about is Kolbrin Vitek...our top pick several years ago, but doesn't seem to have progressed much and was hurt last year. Soxprospects.com has him in the 30's now, I think.

    Do any more meticulous farm-watchers have any thoughts on him? Is there hope for a turnaround yet, or does he look like the next Jason Place?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    Someone I kind of forgot about is Kolbrin Vitek...our top pick several years ago, but doesn't seem to have progressed much and was hurt last year. Soxprospects.com has him in the 30's now, I think.

    Do any more meticulous farm-watchers have any thoughts on him? Is there hope for a turnaround yet, or does he look like the next Jason Place?



    From what I've heard....he's Jason Place.

    I remember when hey drafted him and Brentz both that year in the first round.  Vitke looked good in Lowell and Brentz looked like more of a bust (right off the bat) 

    It stinks but its all part of the game.  Prospects will break your heart

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    2010:

    Vitek (20) and Ranaudo (39) were comp picks for Billy Wagner.

    Brentz (36) and Workman (57) were comp picks for J Bay.

    Some other 1st picks:

    2009: Reymond Fuentes (28)

    2008: Casey Kelly (30) & Bryan Price (45 as comp for Gagne)

    2007: Nick Hagadone (55 as comp for Gonzo) and Ryan Dent (62 as comp for Foulke)

    2006: Jason Place (27), Daniel Bard (28) & Kris Johnson (39) as comp for Damon, and Caleb Clay (43) as comp for Mueller (also Aaron Bates (82).

     

    2005 was the jackpot year:

    Ellsbury (23) & Lowrie (45) for O Cabrera

    Hansen (26) & Bowden (47) for D Lowe

    Buchholz (42) & J Egan (57) for P Martinez

    For the 3 players we losy to free agency (none of which went on to have great numbers afterwards), we essentially got:

    Ellsbury, Buch, and a few years of Lowrie plus...

    Hansen was used with Manny to get J Bay.

    J Bay got us Brentz.

    Lowrie and Weiland got us Melancon.

    Melancon helped get us Hanrahan.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    2010:

    Vitek (20) and Ranaudo (39) were comp picks for Billy Wagner.

    Brentz (36) and Workman (57) were comp picks for J Bay.

    Some other 1st picks:

    2009: Reymond Fuentes (28)

    2008: Casey Kelly (30) & Bryan Price (45 as comp for Gagne)

    2007: Nick Hagadone (55 as comp for Gonzo) and Ryan Dent (62 as comp for Foulke)

    2006: Jason Place (27), Daniel Bard (28) & Kris Johnson (39) as comp for Damon, and Caleb Clay (43) as comp for Mueller (also Aaron Bates (82).

     

    2005 was the jackpot year:

    Ellsbury (23) & Lowrie (45) for O Cabrera

    Hansen (26) & Bowden (47) for D Lowe

    Buchholz (42) & J Egan (57) for P Martinez

    For the 3 players we losy to free agency (none of which went on to have great numbers afterwards), we essentially got:

    Ellsbury, Buch, and a few years of Lowrie plus...

    Hansen was used with Manny to get J Bay.

    J Bay got us Brentz.

    Lowrie and Weiland got us Melancon.

    Melancon helped get us Hanrahan.

     



    so tell me again why we are so quick to bail on Jacobys comp pick if we've had such great luck with them??

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to carnie's comment:

    Bumping this thread past softlaw's bs.



    I was just thinking of bumping a few threads in here myself.  Not something I've done before, but I think it's a tool I'm going to start utilizing more often.  I just find threads like this much more entertaining than Softys antics.  You can only try so long to talk sense into someone until you realize you mine as well be having a conversation with a WALL.

     

    But yes, in here I'm enjoying the dialogue. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    Bumping this thread past softlaw's bs.

     



    I was just thinking of bumping a few threads in here myself.  Not something I've done before, but I think it's a tool I'm going to start utilizing more often.  I just find threads like this much more entertaining than Softys antics.  You can only try so long to talk sense into someone until you realize you mine as well be having a conversation with a WALL.

     

     

    But yes, in here I'm enjoying the dialogue. 




    Probably because there is some dialogue going in here. :-)

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Hoping for Ranaudo to rebound, he never really had a chance to get going last year.   I think he can still be a starter. I'm very intrigued with Gecchini coming into camp buffed up.  

     



    I've always been high on Cecchini, even without bulking up.  Reminded me of Mueller.

     

    Renaudo's been kind of a disappointment, though it is way early.  Barnes, Webster and DLR show a lot of promise, but it is still only 3 guys.  If we could add Renaudo and Owens to the AA mix, we'd hae a deep pool of candidates.

    I'd like to see a little more of Shaw this year.  Considering Youk came as a 3B, it's been about 20 years since we developed a 1B.



    I've heard Shaw doesn't have a high ceiling and is expected to plateau in the high minors.  Quite frankly I think projections are more of guidelines and don't always hold true.  Miles Head wasn't supposed to do anything in the high minors and now he looks like a real good prospect for Oakland.  Of course the opposite holds true as well.  I remember how gaga everyone was over Lars Anderson, but we all know how that panned out.  

    I guess that's the excitement in following prospects though.  You can read the scouting reports and get hopeful on what may become, but the develop as well.  And watching some prospects realize their talents and pushing their ceilings makes it all the more interesting.

    I have have high hopes Shaw can make some strong strides this year, and also that Ranaudo can recover this year.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    2010:

    Vitek (20) and Ranaudo (39) were comp picks for Billy Wagner.

    Brentz (36) and Workman (57) were comp picks for J Bay.

    Some other 1st picks:

    2009: Reymond Fuentes (28)

    2008: Casey Kelly (30) & Bryan Price (45 as comp for Gagne)

    2007: Nick Hagadone (55 as comp for Gonzo) and Ryan Dent (62 as comp for Foulke)

    2006: Jason Place (27), Daniel Bard (28) & Kris Johnson (39) as comp for Damon, and Caleb Clay (43) as comp for Mueller (also Aaron Bates (82).

     

    2005 was the jackpot year:

    Ellsbury (23) & Lowrie (45) for O Cabrera

    Hansen (26) & Bowden (47) for D Lowe

    Buchholz (42) & J Egan (57) for P Martinez

    For the 3 players we losy to free agency (none of which went on to have great numbers afterwards), we essentially got:

    Ellsbury, Buch, and a few years of Lowrie plus...

    Hansen was used with Manny to get J Bay.

    J Bay got us Brentz.

    Lowrie and Weiland got us Melancon.

    Melancon helped get us Hanrahan.

     

     



    so tell me again why we are so quick to bail on Jacobys comp pick if we've had such great luck with them??

     



    1) We haven't had that "great luck" since 2005.

    2) Getting a prospect that has been in the minors for sometime is usually a surer bet than a draft pick.

    3) The value of Ellsbury for 1 season plus the comp pick should net a better prospect than the draft pick alone, unless you think Ellsbury has zero value.

     

    I can understand the reason to keep Ellsbury if you think we have a significant chance at winning this year, but I think this is where we may disagree.

    We may also disagree on the chances of Ellsbury returning after 2013, but if can just try and pretend for a moment, you may see my point of view:

    1) We have such a tiny chance of winning this year, that improving our longterm future is more important.

    2) 1 full year of Ellsbury + the comp pick > 2 months of Ellsbury + no comp pick (if traded at the deadline)

    3) Ellsbury will not return to the Sox after 2013, and if he does, it will be at an extreme overpay.

    It may be hard for you to accept all of these 3 positions, but if you can just pretend they are true for a second, you should be able to at least understand my point of view and see the reason of it.

    I understand if you do not believe 1, 2 or all 3 of my points here, but feel pretty confident of all three, and therefore see the trading of Ellsbury before the season starts as our best choice, particularly for our longterm future.

    I seriously doubt it happens before opening day, but perhaps he may be traded midseason. Otherwise, I hope the comp pick turns out like Buch and not Caleb Clay or Ryan Dent. It may take many years before we can revisit this decision to judge who might have been right or wrong here.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    2010:

    Vitek (20) and Ranaudo (39) were comp picks for Billy Wagner.

    Brentz (36) and Workman (57) were comp picks for J Bay.

    Some other 1st picks:

    2009: Reymond Fuentes (28)

    2008: Casey Kelly (30) & Bryan Price (45 as comp for Gagne)

    2007: Nick Hagadone (55 as comp for Gonzo) and Ryan Dent (62 as comp for Foulke)

    2006: Jason Place (27), Daniel Bard (28) & Kris Johnson (39) as comp for Damon, and Caleb Clay (43) as comp for Mueller (also Aaron Bates (82).

     

    2005 was the jackpot year:

    Ellsbury (23) & Lowrie (45) for O Cabrera

    Hansen (26) & Bowden (47) for D Lowe

    Buchholz (42) & J Egan (57) for P Martinez

    For the 3 players we losy to free agency (none of which went on to have great numbers afterwards), we essentially got:

    Ellsbury, Buch, and a few years of Lowrie plus...

    Hansen was used with Manny to get J Bay.

    J Bay got us Brentz.

    Lowrie and Weiland got us Melancon.

    Melancon helped get us Hanrahan.

     

     



    so tell me again why we are so quick to bail on Jacobys comp pick if we've had such great luck with them??

     

     



    1) We haven't had that "great luck" since 2005.

     

    2) Getting a prospect that has been in the minors for sometime is usually a surer bet than a draft pick.

    3) The value of Ellsbury for 1 season plus the comp pick should net a better prospect than the draft pick alone, unless you think Ellsbury has zero value.

     

    I can understand the reason to keep Ellsbury if you think we have a significant chance at winning this year, but I think this is where we may disagree.

    We may also disagree on the chances of Ellsbury returning after 2013, but if can just try and pretend for a moment, you may see my point of view:

    1) We have such a tiny chance of winning this year, that improving our longterm future is more important.

    2) 1 full year of Ellsbury + the comp pick > 2 months of Ellsbury + no comp pick (if traded at the deadline)

    3) Ellsbury will not return to the Sox after 2013, and if he does, it will be at an extreme overpay.

    It may be hard for you to accept all of these 3 positions, but if you can just pretend they are true for a second, you should be able to at least understand my point of view and see the reason of it.

    I understand if you do not believe 1, 2 or all 3 of my points here, but feel pretty confident of all three, and therefore see the trading of Ellsbury before the season starts as our best choice, particularly for our longterm future.

    I seriously doubt it happens before opening day, but perhaps he may be traded midseason. Otherwise, I hope the comp pick turns out like Buch and not Caleb Clay or Ryan Dent. It may take many years before we can revisit this decision to judge who might have been right or wrong here.

     



    i understand the what you are saying moon. but since no prospect is a sure thing who's to say a comp pick that takes 3+ years to get to the MLB is better or worse than a prospect that will arrive in ~1..

    Since prospects are so hit & miss it is impossible to say that the prospect gained from Jacoby + comp pick would have more value than the comp pick by itself. Even if Jacoby doesn't have a value if 0. Especially since we don't know the prospect OR the potential comp pick.

    If given the choice between a prospect that came from another organization* or a player we get to choose ourselves**and develop in our own system i'm taking the draftee every time.

    Since it is a crapshoot, i'd rather take the player of my choosing and put him in a system i know and trust. As opposed to a player from another organization picked from an even more limited pool and has another teams fingerprints all over him. ESPECIALLY, if we're talking about a pitcher

     

    *-keep in mind the organization that the prospect comes from must have a need for Ells + will have a limited pool of players they are willing to give up

    **-this player is also selected from a limited pool of potential draftees

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    2010:

    Vitek (20) and Ranaudo (39) were comp picks for Billy Wagner.

    Brentz (36) and Workman (57) were comp picks for J Bay.

    Some other 1st picks:

    2009: Reymond Fuentes (28)

    2008: Casey Kelly (30) & Bryan Price (45 as comp for Gagne)

    2007: Nick Hagadone (55 as comp for Gonzo) and Ryan Dent (62 as comp for Foulke)

    2006: Jason Place (27), Daniel Bard (28) & Kris Johnson (39) as comp for Damon, and Caleb Clay (43) as comp for Mueller (also Aaron Bates (82).

     

    2005 was the jackpot year:

    Ellsbury (23) & Lowrie (45) for O Cabrera

    Hansen (26) & Bowden (47) for D Lowe

    Buchholz (42) & J Egan (57) for P Martinez

    For the 3 players we losy to free agency (none of which went on to have great numbers afterwards), we essentially got:

    Ellsbury, Buch, and a few years of Lowrie plus...

    Hansen was used with Manny to get J Bay.

    J Bay got us Brentz.

    Lowrie and Weiland got us Melancon.

    Melancon helped get us Hanrahan.

     

     



    so tell me again why we are so quick to bail on Jacobys comp pick if we've had such great luck with them??

     

     



    1) We haven't had that "great luck" since 2005.

     

    2) Getting a prospect that has been in the minors for sometime is usually a surer bet than a draft pick.

    3) The value of Ellsbury for 1 season plus the comp pick should net a better prospect than the draft pick alone, unless you think Ellsbury has zero value.

     

    I can understand the reason to keep Ellsbury if you think we have a significant chance at winning this year, but I think this is where we may disagree.

    We may also disagree on the chances of Ellsbury returning after 2013, but if can just try and pretend for a moment, you may see my point of view:

    1) We have such a tiny chance of winning this year, that improving our longterm future is more important.

    2) 1 full year of Ellsbury + the comp pick > 2 months of Ellsbury + no comp pick (if traded at the deadline)

    3) Ellsbury will not return to the Sox after 2013, and if he does, it will be at an extreme overpay.

    It may be hard for you to accept all of these 3 positions, but if you can just pretend they are true for a second, you should be able to at least understand my point of view and see the reason of it.

    I understand if you do not believe 1, 2 or all 3 of my points here, but feel pretty confident of all three, and therefore see the trading of Ellsbury before the season starts as our best choice, particularly for our longterm future.

    I seriously doubt it happens before opening day, but perhaps he may be traded midseason. Otherwise, I hope the comp pick turns out like Buch and not Caleb Clay or Ryan Dent. It may take many years before we can revisit this decision to judge who might have been right or wrong here.



    Actually, 2011 was lucky, and about as good a jackpot as 2005.  We got Bradley and Barnes, both top-50, Owens ~ 100, and Swihart.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    Bumping this thread past softlaw's bs.

     



    I was just thinking of bumping a few threads in here myself.  Not something I've done before, but I think it's a tool I'm going to start utilizing more often.  I just find threads like this much more entertaining than Softys antics.  You can only try so long to talk sense into someone until you realize you mine as well be having a conversation with a WALL.

     

     

    But yes, in here I'm enjoying the dialogue. 



    I was going to mention that.  All the 'diehard' RS fans, who bash all our players, never come in these threads.  Wonder why?

    And a hint, if you want to cull the herd, start a Yaz thread.  None of the haters will go in.

     
  24. This post has been removed.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.

    Deven marrero just got a sinle in he ST game.  I don't think his bat is as good as Bogaerts and his glove isn't as slick as Iggys.  I think he may be something inbetween. I've heard (and you can see it) he is VERY athletic.

     
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