Re: Oh hey, here's some prospect news.
posted at 3/15/2013 7:54 PM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to mef429's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
Vitek (20) and Ranaudo (39) were comp picks for Billy Wagner.
Brentz (36) and Workman (57) were comp picks for J Bay.
Some other 1st picks:
2009: Reymond Fuentes (28)
2008: Casey Kelly (30) & Bryan Price (45 as comp for Gagne)
2007: Nick Hagadone (55 as comp for Gonzo) and Ryan Dent (62 as comp for Foulke)
2006: Jason Place (27), Daniel Bard (28) & Kris Johnson (39) as comp for Damon, and Caleb Clay (43) as comp for Mueller (also Aaron Bates (82).
2005 was the jackpot year:
Ellsbury (23) & Lowrie (45) for O Cabrera
Hansen (26) & Bowden (47) for D Lowe
Buchholz (42) & J Egan (57) for P Martinez
For the 3 players we losy to free agency (none of which went on to have great numbers afterwards), we essentially got:
Ellsbury, Buch, and a few years of Lowrie plus...
Hansen was used with Manny to get J Bay.
J Bay got us Brentz.
Lowrie and Weiland got us Melancon.
Melancon helped get us Hanrahan.
so tell me again why we are so quick to bail on Jacobys comp pick if we've had such great luck with them??
1) We haven't had that "great luck" since 2005.
2) Getting a prospect that has been in the minors for sometime is usually a surer bet than a draft pick.
3) The value of Ellsbury for 1 season plus the comp pick should net a better prospect than the draft pick alone, unless you think Ellsbury has zero value.
I can understand the reason to keep Ellsbury if you think we have a significant chance at winning this year, but I think this is where we may disagree.
We may also disagree on the chances of Ellsbury returning after 2013, but if can just try and pretend for a moment, you may see my point of view:
1) We have such a tiny chance of winning this year, that improving our longterm future is more important.
2) 1 full year of Ellsbury + the comp pick > 2 months of Ellsbury + no comp pick (if traded at the deadline)
3) Ellsbury will not return to the Sox after 2013, and if he does, it will be at an extreme overpay.
It may be hard for you to accept all of these 3 positions, but if you can just pretend they are true for a second, you should be able to at least understand my point of view and see the reason of it.
I understand if you do not believe 1, 2 or all 3 of my points here, but feel pretty confident of all three, and therefore see the trading of Ellsbury before the season starts as our best choice, particularly for our longterm future.
I seriously doubt it happens before opening day, but perhaps he may be traded midseason. Otherwise, I hope the comp pick turns out like Buch and not Caleb Clay or Ryan Dent. It may take many years before we can revisit this decision to judge who might have been right or wrong here.
i understand the what you are saying moon. but since no prospect is a sure thing who's to say a comp pick that takes 3+ years to get to the MLB is better or worse than a prospect that will arrive in ~1..
Since prospects are so hit & miss it is impossible to say that the prospect gained from Jacoby + comp pick would have more value than the comp pick by itself. Even if Jacoby doesn't have a value if 0. Especially since we don't know the prospect OR the potential comp pick.
If given the choice between a prospect that came from another organization* or a player we get to choose ourselves**and develop in our own system i'm taking the draftee every time.
Since it is a crapshoot, i'd rather take the player of my choosing and put him in a system i know and trust. As opposed to a player from another organization picked from an even more limited pool and has another teams fingerprints all over him. ESPECIALLY, if we're talking about a pitcher
*-keep in mind the organization that the prospect comes from must have a need for Ells + will have a limited pool of players they are willing to give up
**-this player is also selected from a limited pool of potential draftees