OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    No one is pushing you to participate as it is almost guaranteed that you will have arrows sticking out of your back but if you do have thick skin and you really don't care here is your chance to show off your baseball acumen. ( I admit, I am a show off! ). Cool

    For example: 

    I predicted Ellsbury would have a "monster" year in 2011 and years ago projected him as having a Jonny Damon type career only probably shorter. Yes, I did project that he would have some years of 20 + HR performance...etc. I could go on but I'm a slightly modest show off!

    Now is your chance. State your projections with likelihood percentages please.

    To kick this off from a team perspective, let's have a poll!




     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Why don't you be more modest harness... ooops I mean boom and tell us about the things that didn't happen like you thought?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Claim your 3 days of fame on Boston.com! Give us your projections! Here is my 1 hour analysis!

    1) Ortiz: 65% likely to be gone. Luchino is a fan and he may prevail as he appears to have solidified his spot but they have to save money somewhere ( if they are going to properly address the pitching situation ) and here is the best place to do it IMO. Yeah, I'm not timid. 65% likely! Take the freaking picks Ben!

    2) Papelbon: 60% likely to be gone. To me it could go either way but I'm projecting him as gone. We need a top closer in Boston. He would be worth $1 million per save in the playoffs and we do expect to be in the playoffs right! Papelbon is in his prime and clutch. Fearless! Do we really want Bard closing out game 7 for us? 

    At the same time, is any closer worth that much? We do have several options already at closer, Bard, Aceves ( my favorite ) and yes even Jenks if he comes back well ). Unfortunately, Papelbon is also a fly ball pitcher whose results probably degrade some going forward in Fenway. We have lots of cheaper, external closer options available like KRod, Broxton, Bell, Nathan and others if I remember correctly. No way he accepts arbitration. I'm taking the picks. Papelbon is probably looking at 3 years / $40 mil or maybe even 4 years from some team. He is a big addition for any team. I sincerely wish we could keep him just as a fan but the best GM decision is to let him go. That guy is a winner though. If we keep any of these guys, I hope it's Papelbon.

    3) DREW...100% likely to be Gone Baby Gone! 

    Heh, I need to pad this somewhere!

    4) Tek...Let me see ....Boras as his agent...maybe worth a pick...65% likely to be gone!

    Let me qualify that. I'm not sure they even offer him arb but I think they will and I think he has earned a spot on a team as a valued back up. If we end up finding a way to keep him I have no problem with that at all.

    5) They pick up Scutaro's option!

    Oh yeah! They've done that already! I just wanted to make sure I got ONE RIGHT!

    6) Darvish! YES, but they offer and lose out to the Yanks when Cashman doles out over $50 freaking mil for the right to talk to him!

    I get nervous just talking about that much money. Crawford's deal sends me into convulsions! The Redsox beat them to the punch with Matsuzaka. I don't think that is going to happen again. I'm thinking the Yanks go $53, $54 mil maybe? Crazy huh but Darvish should be a very special talent.

    7) We all know they probably sign at least one starting pitcher. Let's just say this is one mega tough projection so here goes ( Imagine me putting on my blind fold and being turned around 3 times and trying to pin the donkey in the right spot ):

    I think they are MOST likely to sign 2 starters. Doubront and Wieland to be the deep depth. My wild guess is kind of weird since I just projected that Darvish is probably a Yankee but to me the most likely options are below ( pick 1 of the first 2 and one of the second 2:

     
    Darvish

    Buerhle

    Garcia

    Bedard

    So, NWIH I get that one right. But I'm willing to give it a shot even with it being extremely unlikely. It could also be Wilson, Harden...etc or even more likely a TRADE but how are we going to project that!

    8) Right Field. I think Reddick or Kalish win that spot in ST ( probably Reddick IMO ). I'm sorry but Cuddyer is a 33 year old type A folks. We are going to find a RH 4th OF to help out some. How about Cuddyer's buddy Jason Kubel! Maybe they slot Kubel in LF and Crawford in RF sometimes or just slot Kubel in LF for Crawford against some pitchers. Kubel could also protect us at DH if Lavarnway tanks ( yeah, add Lavarnway to this mix. I think he is in mlb next year ). Kubel would be a handy guy if we can talk him into this sort of arrangement. I know it's unlikely but if we can sign him to a $3-5 mil per year deal I think they should consider it.

    This should be a good start and please, ...use rubber tipped arrows! We take this stuff too seriously. Anyone doing this is going to get lots of stuff wrong. It should all be in good fun.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    Why don't you be more modest harness... ooops I mean boom and tell us about the things that didn't happen like you thought?
    Posted by BurritoT


    It was intended in good fun for all of us to go out on the limb some. I left out a lot of stuff Burrito. Like "The Rays will be in it to the end". Even my mistakes were not that bad. Boston at 95-96 wins. The Tek/Salty combo being probably unacceptable ( they were close to that on a major market team like boston IMO.) Cue all the Tek/Salty defenders now with the better than average OPS numbers ...etc ). I really didn't think Salty was going to cut it and I'm still not looking at him as being a major player for us at any point in the future. I count that projection as a slight mistake!

    I thought Navarro would wash out and he did. I thought we would miss both Beltre and Vmart and we did ( I'm still not convinced the Agon deal was in our interest when we look at all contingencies; i.e. Youk stuggling at 3rd, FA 1st base options this year, the value of the talent we traded to get Agon, Agon's long term cost with potentially a wounded shoulder, the option to keep Beltre's RH bat and left side defense... ). 3rd baseman and 1st basemen dive for balls a lot. I'm not thrilled with the possibility that Adrian may never hit those 40-45 HR many of us projected ( even I was but I did put in the caveat that the wounded shoulder was a factor so I preferred keeping Beltre instead ). Both Moon and I cautioned about Youk as being affected some at 3rd. I did think he would be ok there but as a less than average defender. Moon expressed more concern about his health.

    I was in on Lavarnway almost 2 years ago and dragged everyone on soxprospects kicking and screaming on that one. They are still dragging their feet some IMO.

    I had a much better year in 2011 than in prior years. Just call me Nostro for short! It was primarily luck I'm sure but please...don't compare my 2011 projections to Mr. Baltimore, Mr. Lackey as a decent starter option even late in the year...etc.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Burrito, i didn't even intend to bring that stuff up. In past years I have really messed up on things. We all do. Let's see who this year first has the guts to project specific things at this early stage and who ends up nailing this off season. Remember, it should be in fun. If we get things wrong BIG DEAL! It's a freaking sports forum.

    Lots of people here project NOTHING. Everyone has different reasons for being here and that is ok. I like to look at things as I think a GM for the Redsox would or should! You know, sometimes they get it wrong also! If someone doesn't want to participate that is fine. One could look at this as a contest but it also could be looked at as a discussion.  
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    I'm not one of the great baseball minds on the forum, but I'll play.

    I will predict that there is absolutely no way Papelbon goes. Not if they are thinking clearly anyway.

    Bedard is back. And, FWIW, I wouldn't pay $50 million to talk to anyone.

    Also, if they have any sense at all Tek will be back as well.

    Edit: I will also say I would like to have Drew back for one more year. There I said it. I feel completely confident in his ability to handle RF and prevent runs more than any other player, which is actually very similar to creating runs.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrmojo1120. Show mrmojo1120's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    My predictions:
    Ortiz gets re-signed to a 2 year deal with a club option and buy out for the 3rd year.
    Papelbon ends up going to Philadelphia
    Varitek and Wakefield don't come back
    Sox sign Carlos Beltran for RF
    Bedard and Buerhle in the starting rotation along with Beckett,Lester and Buchholz
    Lowrie,Lars Anderson and Reddick get traded this winter
    Crawford bounces back with a .280 -.290 AVG. and 30+ SBs
    Saltalamacchia/Lavarnway split catching duties(Salty getting the lion's share)
    Ellsbury continues to show he's a superstar in the making
    Gonzalez hits with more power ends up with 38-43 HRs
    Red Sox cruise into the postseason with 95-100 wins
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ronk1. Show ronk1's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    -Sox offer Ortiz 2/$15 and he accepts as he has no other offers
    -Beckett builds on his excellant year and wins 18 games next year
    -Ditto Lester
    -the new manager understands resting his players, and Youk plays 145 games and is back to his top 5 OPS status
    -Salty hits 20 HR's
    -Lavarnway starts year is AAA
    -Sox offer Paplbon most money andhe resigns
    -Felix D wins 8 games
    -Reddick wins the RF job in ST
    -Varitek is back, Wake is not
    -CC hits leadoff, Ells 3rd, Agon 4th
    -Sox win 93-98 games, continue sell out streak of Fenway
    -the beer/chicken jokes finally get old to all, even Chad Finn
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    "Boomer and all thanks for your ideas I will take them to LL and we'll discuss them--you didn't mention who we should hire for the Manager--I get it there are enough other threads with that topic." Ben Ch 

    If Papi gets down to under $10 M per---many suitors will be around. I  Love Papi but we need to make some changes. I would say $10 M with an option for a second year at $10 M.

    Pap and Papi will not be back and neither will Wake, Tek, Drew (sorry Kim). The question is who closes--my money is on Bard. If Ben and the new mgr. have a heart to heart with Daniel and he is totally with it--it's his. I would get someone like Dotel or someone that has closed and set-up for support.

    I like the idea of Kubel over Cuddyer--more affordable. In addition to the lineup changes--I like Beltran to be the full-time DH.

    It's great playing GM for the Hot Stove!!!!!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Papi stays
    Paps goes
    Starting pitching remains a huge problem due to injuries and inability to obtain   impact starters
    Bucholz' back remains a problem, he starts less than 15 game all year
    Lester has another so so year
    Beckett's performance declines due to age and no Tek behind the plate
    With Paps gone, Bard has struggles in the closer role
    Ellsbury continues to rake
    Crawford's numbers improve, but nowhere near worth his contract
    A competent, but no star, RH RF is signed
    Lavarnway is on opening day roster and contributes at C and DH all year
    Youk gets injured
    Some combination of Kalish/Reddick/Lowrie get traded
    The farm system improves marginally
    Iggy begins to fade as a viable prospect due to lack of ML hitting profile
    Tek, Wake and JD Caught Looking are all gone
    We have flashes of greatness, with lots of 5-6-7 game losing streaks
    The Red Sox finish no better than third place again, but a light at the end of the tunnel starts to appear next off season
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Put Up or Shut Up!  Oh  Yeah??

     You want a knuckle sangwich with doze woids?


      :o)


    Actually -

      I got's no beef wid yah.


    Tek stays on as Mentor Supreme, helps BOTH Salty and Lavarnway mature some more.  Still helps with the pitchers ... as long as they all make it out of the Betty Ford Clinic for booze and bones (chicken, that is ...)

    Dice-K comes bask for his last season, ready to throw endless innings, which means endless pitches, just enough to drive batters and some fans CRAZY ...  he will nibble and swoosh ...

    Lackey gives us all a break from childishness ... as we  hear about his "heroic" efforts to get over TJ surgery and personal work with Dr. Phil.

    The Sox fail to sign Jake because of his Dutch Uncle BOras.

    I will end my on-going support for the efforts and memories of Terry Francona as listed below as soon as the Sox sign a new manager.  Maybe sooner.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sully1965. Show Sully1965's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    Sully, Like your ideas, burt I think you under value Sanchez, both from a performance point of view and dollar control years. I am concerned that Beltran will want 3 years (did I see he dropped Boras?) Crawford Pedroia Ellsbury Agon Youk DH RF Salty Scutaro
    Posted by rkarp


    My trade for Sanchez is based on points of need for both clubs. That same deal could be offered to Atlanta for a like pitcher with maybe a 3rd piece from Sox for someone like Minor to open up rotation for Braves to get Tejada into rotation. Lowrie and Reddick package should return a good solid arm for the rotation.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sully1965. Show Sully1965's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    1. Papelbon will be back for 3 yrs 45 million
    2. Ortiz will not be back if he sticks to wanted a 3 year deal
    3. Beltran will be the big offensive signing to be a part time OF and Full Time DH
    4. Sox will sign Edwin Jackson, Broxton, Willingham
    5. Sox will re-sign Wheeler to a lesser contract
    6. Sox will trade Reddick and Lowry to San Fran for Sanchez.
    8. Sox will release Jenks and Varitek


    Opening Day Lineup
    CF Elsbury
    LF Crawford
    1B Gonzalez
    3B Youk
    DH Beltran
    2b Pedroia
    RF Kalish / Willingham
    C Salty / Lavarn
    2b Scutaro / Aviles

    Rotation
    Lester
    Beckett
    Buch
    Sanchez
    Jackson

    Pen
    Papelbon
    Bard
    Broxton
    Aceves
    Wheeler
    Tazawa (Long)

    That leaves 2 open spots for a lefty for the pen and one more offensive guy off the bench -- I am thinking the Theo comp will be Vitters from Cubs so he could be the bench guy. Maybe a small deal for a lefty like Breslow to fill out roster


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    You re right that Papi may not get 10 million dollars or more a year base on how much did Damon, Vladmir and Thome got paid in the last three years.  None of them got more than 10 millions except Papi did in the last two years.  Boston is more likely to wait and see how much these three players along with few other full time DH players sign with a new team or resign with the old team, and then Boston can use that leverage to pay Papi.  That is why I do think that Boston do not have to hurry up and sign Papi.  Just wait and see how the market goes for everyone!
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    OK here's my shot...

    • Ortiz comes back for one year $12 million, and a team option on the 2nd.
    • Papelbon leaves...its what he's wanted to do all along
    • Sox trade Ellsbury for Kemp straight up - Kemp plays RF
    • Sox sign Sizemore to play CF
    • Sox re-sign Eric Bedard and a free agent pitcher like Chris Young or Brandon Webb or Bruce Chen or Rich Harden
    • Sox thank Wake and Varitek for their services but move on
    • Sox go no where near Darvish
    • No big money free agents for 2012...sorry CJ, Albert, Prince and Mark, no Sox helping to raise the ante on your contracts.
    • Jenks comes back and helps out of the 'pen, pitching for a contract
    • Sox sign Nathan for 2/20.
    Line-up:
    • Kemp
    • Crawford
    • Agon
    • Pedroia
    • Ortiz
    • Youk
    • Sizemore
    • Scutaro
    • Salt
    Rotation:
    • Lester
    • Beckett
    • Buchholz
    • Bedard
    • Free agent
    Bullpen:
    • Nathan
    • Bard
    • Jenks
    • Albers
    • Morales
    • Miller/Doubront
    • free agent - TBD (Capps, Linebrink, Mike Gonzalez, Rauch)
    Bench
    • Lavarnway
    • Lowrie
    • Aviles
    • Linares/Reddick
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Sully,
    Like your ideas, burt I think you under value Sanchez, both from a performance point of view and dollar control years.
    I am concerned that Beltran will want 3 years (did I see he dropped Boras?)
    Crawford
    Pedroia
    Ellsbury
    Agon
    Youk
    DH
    RF
    Salty
    Scutaro
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Papi to Toronto
    Paps to Philly

    Sox sign Beltran, Harden, Broxton

    Trade Lowrie and Reddick for relief help

    Resign Wheeler, Tek and Wake.

    Lavarnway starts year in AAA

    Lineup:

    Ellsbury CF
    Pedroia 2B
    AGon 1B
    Youk 3B/DH
    Beltran DH/RF
    Crawford  LF
    Salty/Tek C
    Kalish/Aviles     RF/3B
    Scutaro  SS

    Rotation:

    Beckett
    Lester
    Buch
    Aceves
    Harden
    Doubront
    Wake

    Bullpen:

    Broxton
    Bard
    Jenks
    Trade
    Morales
    Wheeler
    Tazawa
    Bowden
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Papelbon will be re-signed.

    Ortiz will be re-signed.

    Tek and Wake will receive invitations to spring training.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from bgomez. Show bgomez's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Papi back for 2/20
    Papelbon gets a reasonable offer from us, but Phillies overpay for him
    We sign E Jax, Harang, Broxton
    We sign Cuddyer for RF
    Kalish on bench to start season
    Tek will retire, as will Wake
    Some combo of Reddick/Lowrie will be traded for pitching
    Pete Mackanin WILL BE MANAGER
    Youk will have a great comeback year (.290, 30 hrs, 100 rbis)
    Gonzo turns on the power (sub-40 hrs)
    Ells will fall off a little bit (.300, 25 hrs, 90 rbis, 55 sb)
    Crawford will regain his Rays form (.300, 15 hrs, 90 rbis, 40 sb)
    Lester will have a great year (sub-20 wins, 2.50 era)
    ditto Beckett (sub-15 wins, 3.00 era)
    Buch will have a comeback year (sub-15 wins, 3.50 era)
    The Sox will make one MAJOR midseson trade (King Felix?)

    Lineup:

    Ells
    Crawford
    Pedey
    Gonzo
    Papi
    Youk
    Cuddyer
    Salty
    Scutaro

    Bench:

    Lavarnway
    Aviles
    Kalish
    Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Rotation:

    Lester
    Beckett
    Buchholz
    Jackson
    Harang

    Bullpen:

    Aceves
    Doubront
    Morales
    Tazawa
    Broxton
    Albers
    Bard (closer)


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    just curious on the Papi resigning numbers. Sox offering 2/$20 I assume means that some one else offers him? Who? I just don't see a market for Papi developing, so why should the Sox over pay?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rutland76. Show Rutland76's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    How are you going to save this thread and look at it later on since it will go to the archives and vanish?
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    -Sox offer Ortiz 2/$15 and he accepts as he has no other offers -Beckett builds on his excellant year and wins 18 games next year -Ditto Lester -the new manager understands resting his players, and Youk plays 145 games and is back to his top 5 OPS status -Salty hits 20 HR's -Lavarnway starts year is AAA -Sox offer Paplbon most money andhe resigns -Felix D wins 8 games -Reddick wins the RF job in ST -Varitek is back, Wake is not -CC hits leadoff, Ells 3rd, Agon 4th -Sox win 93-98 games, continue sell out streak of Fenway -the beer/chicken jokes finally get old to all, even Chad Finn
    Posted by ronk1


     I like that idea to keep TEC... (very cheap)and have Larvanway catch most games
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    How are you going to save this thread and look at it later on since it will go to the archives and vanish?
    Posted by Rutland76


    You have a point. So...I just automated this thread to an unused personal email with search functionality. Unlike Vegas, everything that happens here doesn't stay here. I will volunteer to clear up any questions if you contact me. Exact quotes available for free.

    I like what I'm seeing. Everyone's position is SO DIFFERENT. Which indicates that we all are going to be WAY WRONG. It's inevitable guys unless we have an epiphanal moment or 2.

    The odds of getting most of this stuff right out of all the player options is probably under 5% but why not go for it! I like some of the ideas here. More comments after work tonight.  
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Do you guys think Kubel could be had for $3 mil and if so would we want him for $3 mil? After last year maybe he is undervalued? My biggest concern is that he wouldn't sign for 4th OF money. Do we go $5 mil or beyond? He's not ideal in RF for Fenway. Big issue. Could we slot Crawford some in RF? I would consider it even though his arm is not ideal at all. To me, Crawford is definitely not ideal in LF either. I still like the Kubel option but again, probably not going to happen. Have heard zero buzz on it. Not an ideal fit at all in RF or CF. Crawford probably doesn't move to RF to cover him with a real GM. Oh well, I like it anyway!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Kubel could help us some at DH if Papi is gone. A lot of permutations happening right now in the FO.
     
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