OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Goofywocky. Show Goofywocky's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    lots of fans see Els as a rickey henderson #1 hitter.  I don't agree--he will develop into a more #3 Carl Yaz  hitter.  Sign him long term. He'll be a 35 HR, 40steals , 100 run producer for a long time
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    He'll be a 35 HR, 40steals , 100 run producer for a long time

    He is never done that once, much less a long time. 

    But, provide the offer detials on your extension offer for Ellsbury. 7 years and 142M?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]lots of fans see Els as a rickey henderson #1 hitter.  I don't agree--he will develop into a more #3 Carl Yaz  hitter.  Sign him long term. He'll be a 35 HR, 40steals , 100 run producer for a long time
    Posted by Goofywocky[/QUOTE]


    wrong, try 22hr 35 sb's 90runs
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from bigdog1. Show bigdog1's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    I would try to trade for kemp, we need a Rh bat that can play RF and yes I would consider trading Ells to make this trade work.  I really don't like the idea of trading Ells, but RF is a very important position at our field. 

    Re-sign Paps boston is not an easy place to play.

    I would move Youk to DH. 

    I would sign Bedard or Burhle on a short contract.

    I would add a couple more arms to the pen.

    I would then try to go after Rameriez to play 3b.

    If we would not get Kemp I would play either Kalish or Reddick in RF and go after Rameriez hard to play 3b and balance out the lineup.  we need s very good defensive player in RF.  Not Kubal or Cuddyear.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    What's the best guess number Borass would accept for Ells?
    $75M for 5, $100 M for 6 or 7?

    There's got to be a number!
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]Fair enough, Boomer. Only time will tell if you regret not trading Ellsbury this winter. 2 years and 12 to 14M looks pretty attractive to a lot of teams right now. Red Sox have Crawford, see Inepstein, but they have zilch in RH OF slugging department. If Kemp goes to free agency, remember this winter as the winter he could have been traded for and extended instead of destroying Red Sox pitching as a member of the Ny Yankees for the next half decade or more. Dodgers will absolutely trade Kemp (1 year 10M to 12M) for Ellsbury (6M to 8M) and one or two more farm hands that are highly rated farm hands blocked with the Red Sox.
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]
    I wouldn't trade 2 years of lower cost control over Ellsbury for 1 year of more expensive control of Kemp straight up, let alone with prospects being needed. You are effectively saying Kemp is worth twice as much as Ellsbury. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Paps and Papi are bye-bye so are Wake and Tek
    Youk and Lavanway share dh and youk plays 3rd occasional 1st and L. catches more and more as the season progresses
    Beltran in right
    Lowrie and Reddick get traded
    Dice K sparkles in last 2 months of the season
    Maddox manages
    Jake and CC batting one and two terroize the league
    Nathan closes eventually
    Bedard #4 stays healthy all year wins 16 games


     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    They are discussing the free agents on MLB network.  They believe that Papelbon is the # 1 closer on the free agent market.  I definitely agree with this and have said many times that resigning him should be the Red Sox # 1 priority. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    It would be real tough to see either Paps or Papi go. It might not happen just from fan outcry. Paps is our Rivera in some ways. Our safety blanket. I'm not certain how much impact that has in their decision. 
    Maybe a lot.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    I wouldn't trade 2 years of lower cost control over Ellsbury for 1 year of more expensive control of Kemp straight up, let alone with prospects being needed. You are effectively saying Kemp is worth twice as much as Ellsbury.

    2012 Crawford 20M
    2012 Kemp ~10M or Ellsbury ~8M + ~2M for RH OF = 30M to 30M

    2013 Crawford ~20M
    2013 Kemp ~ 20M or Ellsbury ~ 10M +~2M for RH OF = 40M or 32M

    2014 Crawford ~20M
    2014 Kemp ~ 20M or Ellsbury ~20M +~2M Total = 40M or 42M

    Total with Kemp is 2M a year more over 3 years.

    Obviously, Kemp is the far better long term fit, not Ellsbury.

    Crawford    Ellsbury
    Pedroia      Pedroia
    AGon         AGon
    Kemp is />     ?

    OF Crawford Kemp Kalish/Reddick /> Crawford Ellsbury Kalish/Reddick/?
     
    No doubt, if Dodgers want 1 or 2 more blocked young controlled players, in addition to Ellsbury, offering them their choice of 1 or 2 (only 1 pitcher if 2)  from Lowrie and anyone on the farm except Middlebrooks (Replace Youk 2013), Ranaudo, Kalish/Reddick (take over for Drew), Iglesias (Replace Scutaro 2013), Lavarnway, Barnes, Jacobs, Bradley, only you and perhaps Inepstein and a few others would not see the obvious better fit and value.    

    is about fit and Inepstein Crawford contract.

    Red Sox need Kemp for 2012 and 2013 and 2014 and beyond, a lot more than Ellsbury.  
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]What's the best guess number Borass would accept for Ells? $75M for 5, $100 M for 6 or 7? There's got to be a number!
    Posted by MadMc44[/QUOTE]


    With Scott Boras as his agent, I believe those numbers are not enough.

    Boras will use Crawford's contract as an example  (starting point).

    This is an agent that made Chan Ho Park look like a Hall of Famer. lol 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]I wouldn't trade 2 years of lower cost control over Ellsbury for 1 year of more expensive control of Kemp straight up, let alone with prospects being needed. You are effectively saying Kemp is worth twice as much as Ellsbury. 2012 Crawford 20M 2012 Kemp ~10M or Ellsbury ~8M + ~2M for RH OF = 30M to 30M 2013 Crawford ~20M 2013 Kemp ~ 20M or Ellsbury ~ 10M +~2M for RH OF = 40M or 32M 2014 Crawford ~20M 2014 Kemp ~ 20M or Ellsbury ~20M +~2M Total = 40M or 42M Total with Kemp is 2M a year more over 3 years. Obviously, Kemp is the far better long term fit, not Ellsbury. Crawford    Ellsbury Pedroia      Pedroia AGon         AGon Kemp is />     ? OF Crawford Kemp Kalish/Reddick /> Crawford Ellsbury Kalish/Reddick/?   No doubt, if Dodgers want 1 or 2 more blocked young controlled players, in addition to Ellsbury, offering them their choice of 1 or 2 (only 1 pitcher if 2)  from Lowrie and anyone on the farm except Middlebrooks (Replace Youk 2013), Ranaudo, Kalish/Reddick (take over for Drew), Iglesias (Replace Scutaro 2013), Lavarnway, Barnes, Jacobs, Bradley, only you and perhaps Inepstein and a few others would not see the obvious better fit and value.     is about fit and Inepstein Crawford contract. Red Sox need Kemp for 2012 and 2013 and 2014 and beyond, a lot more than Ellsbury.  
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]

    Maybe you are missing a simple point. We have Ellsbury, who put up huge numbers this year also, for 2 years of control and Kemp would only give us 1 year of control. You want to maybe trade them straight up with us also throwing in 1 or 2 top prospects? For example Coyle, Bogaerts, Cechinni...I don't think so.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    I predict Micheal Cudduyer to the Phillies  Wink ... or is that the same as projecting?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rutland76. Show Rutland76's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Projecting is a statistical process based on past data. Look up statistical regression analysis. You project based on historical observations. Predicting is subjective and can be done by a gypsy at a carnival who reads palms or who has a crystal ball.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]Projecting is a statistical process based on past data. Look up statistical regression analysis. You project based on historical observations. Predicting is subjective and can be done by a gypsy at a carnival who reads palms or who has a crystal ball.
    Posted by Rutland76[/QUOTE]

     I project that you posted here as someone else, Am I right AGAIN??
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

     To regain your integrity, come clean, Identify your multi selves.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rutland76. Show Rutland76's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Actually I am a clone of Softlaw / HankWilliams / LessPaul / etc. who is just trying to be a devil's advocate / contrarian. I live in Charlotte, NC and Oregon and listen to Conservative talk radio all day long. Isn't that obvious to you?
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]Actually I am a clone of Softlaw / HankWilliams / LessPaul / etc. who is just trying to be a devil's advocate / contrarian. I live in Charlotte, NC and Oregon and listen to Conservative talk radio all day long. Isn't that obvious to you?
    Posted by Rutland76[/QUOTE]

     What's obvious is you just won't tell the truth, so I'm done with you. Good luck and good night.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rutland76. Show Rutland76's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Maybe you are missing a simple point. We have Ellsbury, who put up huge numbers this year also, for 2 years of control and Kemp would only give us 1 year of control. You want to maybe trade them straight up with us also throwing in 1 or 2 top prospects? For example Coyle, Bogaerts, Cechinni...I don't think so.

    Maybe you are missing a simple point. Kemp would be extended long term (FA NYY and pick cost plus lose lower bargain cost on Kemp for 2012). Obviously, you miss the point that 142M is tied up in Crawford and is Ellsbury's ticket out of town. To repeat, Kemp extended long term, Ellsbury not extended.

    2011 Ellsbury v. LP  OBP .348 SLG .492  
           Career v. LP    OBP .355 SLG .427
        
    2011 Kemp v. LP    OBP .461 SLG .682  
          Career v. LP    OBP .404 SLG .562 

    For example Coyle, Bogaerts, Cechinni...I don't think so.


    I think so. Coyle (Pedroia), Bogaerts (Iglesias) and Cechini (Middlebrooks) are all blocked. I'll take Iggy over Bogaerts, Red Sox slugger SS has been an abject failure. But 2 are not needed.

    Ellsbury will not be signed long term, nor should he be. No team is giving up a quality proven young starting pitcher under several years of contract or control in trade. Red Sox need a superstar RH young OF slugger. Kemp is an immediate need and long term fit. Ellsbury and Crawford does not compute, is a clash. Kemp and Crawford would compliment one another, and Kemp and AGon are a perfect immediate and long term fit.

    Kemp is also younger.

    Dodgers and Red Sox match up well for this trade and it would be completed if Red Sox GM proposed it. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Wouldn't it cost MORE to extend Kemp than it would cost to extend Ellsbury? What are we saving beyond your pipedream transaction? We also give up 2 top prospects plus lose a year of control over the player in question ( Ellsbury ). The only way to describe idea is DUMB. 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Crawford is on books for 142M. Does it matter that Ellsbury speculative cost would be 80% of Kemp. No, it does not.

    Long term control is gained in Kemp. Ellsbury is not going to be extended long term because Crawford and 142M plus Ellsbury is not a fit at all. 

    Ellsbury is going to cost 12 to 14M over 2 years. Expensive control for a player who is not a fit with Crawford. Ellsbury career season actually should make any smart GM realize that said player is going to be expensive over final 2 years before signing with another team. 

    Trading blocked prospects to get a player like Kemp, perfect fit, at no more than a couple of million more than Ellsbury, and signing a perfect fit superstar long term makes perfect sense.

    2012 and 2013  Kemp costs about 30M (Kemp under long term contract)

    2012 and 2013 Ellsbury + dumpster RH OF costs about 24M (Ellsbury gone)

    Crawford/Pedroia/AGon/Kemp much  /> Ellsbury/Pedroia/Agon/?       
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from sapper1. Show sapper1's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

     Greetings from Harat Afghanistan, my gut feeling tells me Paps stays,Papi stays also, Tek goes to Ga Tech...asst coach. Wake...don't know,jury is out. I think Mike Mad will be the Manager. If they use the C..captain...Peddy will get it,since Tek will be gone. Beltran or Cuddyer,maybe attempt Buerhle. This is my projection and I'm locked and loaded dude!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Ells is never going to have a career year as complete as this past season.  Having said that he will still be an elite outfielder for years to come(barring any serious injury)

    If his numbers are 80% of what they were this past season(realistic) he will get a MINIMUM of 22.5 milllion per year.  Borass will talk his "pie in the sky white whale 8 year deal" which Ells won't get but he sure will likely get 6-7 years from some team.  It will not be this one however. What that means is someone will be on the hook for 136 to 158+ million.  With Gonzo and Crawford making a combined 40+ million per season for the next 6-7 I cannot see the sox being able to afford Ells.  Sad but true.

    Paps will go for top dollar and therefore will likely be gone.(he can get 4-5 years elsewhere at 12+ mill per)

    Papi comes back for a 2 year golden parachute.(18.5-20 mill range)

    Youk platoons with Lavarnway(who will also be Salty's backup catcher) and Papi at the DH slot with Youk playing 3rd 65% of the time and Aviles or someone else spelling him.  Youk, and Papi each get 500+ AB's Lavarnway 400+ Aviles 300+.

    Tek retires

    Drew retires

    Wake has a Wake!

    DMac is released in spring training.

    Michael Cuddyer comes in to play Right at 10.5 million over 3 seasons(31.5 total)

    Kalish is our 4th outfielder Reddick is traded for pitching and/or a prospect

    Lackey goes to San Diego to be reunited with Bud Black and John Henry eats 30 of the 45 mill remaining, OUCH!

    Bard is our number 4 starter behind "Popeye men" Beckett , Lester and Buchholz.  It was tried  in the lower minors and was a failure but he has far greater command of his pitches now.

    Lowrie is traded for a prospect.

    Junichi Tazawa surprises everyone and is the number 5 starter coming out of spring training.  Daisake comes back after the Allstar break and gives us 7 wins down the stretch playing for his next contract elsewhere.

    Bobby Jenks loses 25 pounds(ha ha ha) and claims the closer's job.

    The bullpen is nearly unrecognizable from last season with only Jenks coming back Paps leaving in Free Agency and Bard going to the rotation.

    Dave Martinez is the new sox manager after an exhaustive interview process with 18 candidates.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

       CHANGE, CHANGE & MORE CHANGE !!!!
     

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