OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrmini. Show mrmini's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    GET RID OF SOME GUYS THAT CLOG UP THE BASES.
     MAYBE ORTIZ, TEK, YOUK, WHICH LEAVES US WITH
    SALTY, LAVARNWAY, A GON. DO NOT THINK ABOUT
    KEEPING ALL THOSE GUYS. REPLACE THEM WITH AT
    LEAST AVE SPEED. THAT WILL ELIMINATE 4 BASE HITS
    TO GET ONE RUN
    EXIT ARROGANT PAPS
    I LIKE NATHAN ALSO
    DUMP LAWRIE, RIDDICK
    SIGN SIZEMORE FOR 2 YRS @LF WITH KALISH
    PICK UP 3B RAMAREZ & DUMP YOUK IF PAPI STAYS.
    TRY CRAWFORD IN RF/ CHANGE BACK IF NECESSARY
    I LIKE BLOOMQUIST, HAIRSTON, AVILAS, SIZEMORE.
    TRADE FOR B ARROYO, HE'S GOOD FOR 225 INN
    DUMP WAKE, HE'S TOAST
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    boom no need to explaing yourself, I was just razzing you.  My only far reaching prediction is that Beckett and Papelbon end up with the Rangers to start this season.


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from WesternOregon. Show WesternOregon's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:

    People will come.

    People will go.

    The 2012 season will have an opening day.


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Prediction:

    Sox win 95+ games.

    Wild prediction:

    Jenks has comeback year.

    Educated guess:

    Tazawa ends up in important (Aceves-like) role by years end, and Lavarnaway ends up with 15+ HRs despite starting year off in AAA.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Man, I just noticed Kubel is a LH hitter. What was I thinking!

    It does look like he was maybe hurt by the new park though. He's still young and probably cheap for a guy who put up solid HR numbers just a short while ago. He would enable us to trade some of our young OF talent. He could help us at DH some. Maybe a Lavarnway / Kubel platoon there? If we do let Ortiz go at least Kubel could also help us in the OF some. The last thing we need though is another LH outfielder! Oh well!
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    Prediction: Sox win 95+ games. Wild prediction: Jenks has comeback year. Educated guess: Tazawa ends up in important (Aceves-like) role by years end, and Lavarnaway ends up with 15+ HRs despite starting year off in AAA.
    Posted by parhunter1


    It looks like you bet mainly on winning hands only parhunter!

    i like the insight though. Tazawa had an interesting year in 2011 and showed that maybe he can contribute next year. Lavarnway can absolutely be a force also.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    An interesting article here on last year's Coco Crisp look alike Bradley! 40th pick in last year's draft by the Sox. The kid looks like he has things together!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Wow. The Papi vote is tied. Tough call on that one huh!
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    If we let both Papelbon and Ortiz go we save at least 23 mil per year ( IMO ) plus get access to 4 new Jackie Bradley jr level draft picks. That's a lot of value.

    But so are Papelbon and Ortiz!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Boomer--it's okay that Kubel is lefthanded batter---he will enjoy the wall and is a little faster than Papi. He won't hit many dingers. I think having Youk and Kubel sharing the DH with Lavarnway and Salty sharing the catching aolong with Aviles and Lowrie doing 3 b until Middlebrooks is ready will work.

    Perhaps Tek can back up Nap-o-li behind the plate for Texas when Beckett starts--I'd take Colby Lewis, or Feldman or Feliz and a good AAA hitting or pitching prospect in return for Beckett.

    I liked the Kemp for Ells even up---maybe we would have more luck signing Kemp long term.

    Crawford, Pedroia, Kemp, AGon, Beltran, Youk DH, Salty, Aviles 3 b and Scu.

    Bench--Lowrie, Kalish, Kubel, Lavarnway

    Lester, Lewis, Buch, Aceves and Maholm

    Nathan, Bard, Jenks, Junichi, Morales, Albers and Hill


     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In order ...

    * Ortiz is re-signed to a 3-year deal with cheap buyout on the third year.
    * Sox sign Grady Sizemore
    * Tony Pena named new manager
    * Varitek walks, and is signed as a back-up to Matt Wieters in Baltimore
    * Tim Wakefield retires
    * Sox land Yu Darvish, and sign him to a 6-year, $58M deal.
    * Papelbon walks, and is signed by the Phillies
    * Ellsbury is traded to the Braves for Jurrjjens and Venters

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Paps resigns 3/39 with vesting option for 4th year
    Lavarnway breaks camp on the MLB team..Shares C with Salty and DH
    Buch, Beckett and Lester all win 15 games or more
    Sox pick up a 4-5 starter and promote one from within
    Youk starts at 3rd
    Sox pick up a Cody Ross Type for RF platoon with kalish
    Red, Lars, Lowrie involved in trades
    CC is back to career numbers
    Tek, Wake, Drew are all gone
    Multiple arms are invited to camp as usual
    Although he will come back to earth, Ells will hit .300+ have 50sb and 20+ HR, an AS appearence and andoth GG..
    Posible Call ups include: Iggy, Middlebrooks,Wilson,Tazawa,Weiland,Fields,Linares,Hazelbaker(late inning PR).
    CF- Ells
    LF- CC
    2b- Pedey
    1b- Gonzo
    3b- Youk
    DH- Lavarnway
    RF- ??/Kalish
    C-   Salty
    SS- Scoot
    ROTATION
    Lester-Beckett-Buchholz-??-Aceves/Doubront?
    BULLPEN
    Paps-Bard-Jenks-Morales-Fill-ins
    BENCH
    Aviles-RF-Aquisition-??

    All in all, I dont see any big moves made...I believe Paps is more valuable than Papi and will be back long term..1 FA/trade for starting pitcher, address BP needs and find a RHB to platoon in RF for a couple years..There are internal options available and I believe with a healthy rotation, they should be fine without any major $$ spent...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Boomer, the man who said Agon for 2010 and Beltre for 2011. You have been predicting Ellsbury would have a monster year since 2008. Your career OBP is low. Notice Ellsbury numbers in 2009 after Manny, and in 2011 after Agon.

    Ellsbury

    2008 BA .280 OBP .336 SLG .394 (Manny to Dodgers)
    2009 BA .301 OBP .355 SLG .415
    2010 BA .192 OBP .241 SLG .244

    2011 Acquisition of Agon (Pedroia gets pin out and returns to better form)

    Carrer BA .301 OBP .354 SLG .452

    Crawford (Playing on a weak Tampa Offense lineup)

    2008 BA .273 OBP .319 SLG .400
    2009 BA .305 OBP .364 SLG .452
    2010 BA .307 OBP .356 SLG .495 Gold Glove

    Career BA .293 OBP .333 SLG .441

    Now, do you evaluate talent based upon career averages, ballpark factor and lineup talent around a player, or do you soak your shorts over 1 season in front of Pedroia and AGon and offer Ellsbury a Crawford plus extension of 7 years and 150 million?

    I recognize a circumstantial windfall season, Crawford contract mistake by Inepstein, proper talent evaluation and career averages within lineups, and I offer Ellsbury to the Dodgers for a true superster and perfect Red Sox fit given what Inepstein has stuck on the long term books.

    Obviously, Ellsbury was neither a team leader or a 2011 season difference maker, even in proper context.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Picking what a stupid GM will do is a wasted exercise. That said, their are only 2 Red Sox FA with any serious market value. Papelbon and Ortiz. 

    I've gone into detial on my entire 40 man roster on other threads. As to what Cherry does, we'll see.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    boom no need to explaing yourself, I was just razzing you.  My only far reaching prediction is that Beckett and Papelbon end up with the Rangers to start this season.
    Posted by BurritoT


    I hope that you are wrong about Papelbon and Beckett.  We need to add to our pitching depth.  Losing both of these pitchers would be a mistake and they would be difficult to replace. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Susan I agree--I believe if Pap is not in Philly he will be close to home in Texas and I do believe Nolan Ryan and the Sox may be able to work out a trade for Beckett. We do need one of his top three starters in return and a good prospect. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Boomer and Harness are one in the same? Does Kim know about this?

    Why don't you be more modest harness... ooops I mean boom and tell us about the things that didn't happen like you thought? Burrito
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    I side with Boom ( and did at the time ) on the decision to let Beltre walk and to trade for Gonzalez. It was based on assumptions that Youkilis would slide back over to third without missing a beat, and that Gonzalez would put up big power numbers in Fenway. Now I fear that, as I have said elsewhere, that the Sox are vulnerable defensively on the left side, and that Youk may be hobbled again at that position. I saw Gonzalez play numerous games against the Dodgers. He is a very good ballplayer but not basically a slugger. I do not expect him to hit 30+ homers, and I think that his BA will drop somewhat. ( Boy, would I like to be wrong on this one. ) Beltre found a home in Boston. He's built to last, injuries aside. 
    I do not agree with the predictions that the Big Three will all have good years. I don't expect them to make anywhere near all of their scheduled starts. Buchholz remains a question mark until he shows that he can pitch. The other two are on probation until they show that they can stay the course. ( Suds or no suds. ) Otherwise, Boston needs at least one good ST and, probably, one more arm in the pen. If Papelbon leaves, which is likely, Bard will be a question mark as closer, unless he's moved into the rotation, which is unlikely. I would not discount the possibility that at some point Aceves will be given a chance to close. Or start. In any event, pitching will be the test of this club.
    So will catching. Salty began to buckle at roughly the half-way mark. Lavarnway is not ready to assume the position. ( Why not teach him to play the outfield? ) Tek's status is still unresolved. 
    I doubt that Ellsbury will duplicate his 2011 performance, but odds are that he'll come close and take another step towards super-stardom. ( If he isn't traded. )
    Crawford is an enigma. He'll do better but not enough to justify his contract. I'll guess that he comes close to his career norms -- but with my fingers crossed.
    Pedey will continue to be the guts of this club. 
    Rightfield remains problematical. Even if Reddick or Kalish proves serviceable, the Sox need a RHed bat for a platoon.  I fear that this position may be a weak spot.
    Hard to say much at the moment about Scutaro/Lowrie/Aviles. Scutaro will open at SS, but there will probably be juggling along the way. Lowrie might be traded.
    If Ortiz wants more than two years, I'd let him walk. 
    In general, we'll be looking at a club that did not crash and burn but blew up in the air.  Hard to say how much difference a new manager will make -- for better or worse. It's easy to say that the players have "something to prove"
    ( or will play with chips on their shoulders ) but impossible to say how all of that will pan out. The Red Sox are a damaged organization. They do not lie amidst wreckage exactly, but, IMO, big repairs are in order. 
     
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!


    have likely exercised player 3M option. option was one year 1M deal for 

     
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Claim your 3 days of fame on Boston.com! Give us your projections! Here is my 1 hour analysis! (looks more like a 1 second cramp)

    1) Ortiz: 65% likely to be gone. Luchino is a fan and he may prevail as he appears to have solidified his spot but they have to save money somewhere ( if they are going to properly address the pitching situation ) and here is the best place to do it IMO. Yeah, I'm not timid. 65% likely! Take the freaking picks Ben!

    Varitek and Wastefield cost almost 6 million in 2011. Save some money there. 65% is pretty timid.

    I say 100% Ortiz is resigned by ownership and upper management. Market for Ortiz is only a big team market and a one year large base or two year smaller base market. There are only NYY & LAA for big market. Rangers and White Sox in upper middle market. Moonslob's recommendation is now the nightmare of the White Sox. Out. Rangers already cut Vlad loose and only went one year and about 1/3 less than what Ortiz is expecting. Hamilton is wearing down as a big body OF'er and may see some DH time in near future. Rangers are out because they are not going to offer 10M plus for a DH. Blue Jays and other middle market teams are not going to spend 15 to 20% of their budget on a 36 year old DH. Angels let Vlads go, no chance they pull the trigger on Ortiz.

    Yes, that leaves the Yankees to set the market in greedy corporation v. the little helpless and homeless style. Yankees will not offer sheet 2 years and 30M for Ortiz. They will offer no more than 1 year and 15M max (15M is unlikely but is listed to rule out the Yankees) or 2 years and around 20M Max. Yankees need serious DH time for A-Roid for 2013, if not 2012. Thus, you have the cards Ortiz is holding. Yankees do have interest, but not enough to simply outbid the Red Sox for Ortiz.

    Offer 1 year and 13M mutual option 2nd year 10M and 2.5M buyout and that should do it. Ortiz is not going to ruin his off field retirement income by chasing a few more million in NYY when he knows he is very close to being aged out into retirement. Ortiz retains his annual base, Yankees would not go 2 years and do that, but still remains free to seek another contract for 2013 but guarantees almost 15 million if he decides to retire at year end. Yankees are not going to commit 2 years and more than 20M for Ortiz. It isn't the money, it is the DH slot for 2 years and the money.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    2) Papelbon: 60% likely to be gone. To me it could go either way but I'm projecting him as gone. We need a top closer in Boston. He would be worth $1 million per save in the playoffs and we do expect to be in the playoffs right! Papelbon is in his prime and clutch. Fearless! Do we really want Bard closing out game 7 for us?

    Papelbon market is dubious beyond 3 years. His base is quite clear at around 13 to 15M per year. So it boils down to market for years. The market for closers is actually quite crowded. Papelbon has entire MLB market, unlike Ortiz. 3 year market is the question. That market is going to be tiny, if at all, because of the huge risk. Angels are likely out because of past approach (K-Rod was correct move). Yankees are out. Rangers and Phillies will have high interest, but they also will have other supply.

    Becasue of the baseball nepotism factor and huge number of GM idiots, impossible to predict market for Papelbon. Too many variables.

    But, easy to value Papelbon to the Red Sox. Reality is the Red Sox need quality starting pitching more than a closer. But the reality is that their are no proven value quality starting pitchers on this market. But their will be beyond 2012.

    Papelbon value ends beyond 2 years and 26M plus 4M incentives max. Offer Papelbon 2 years and 28M plus 2M per year innings related incentives. Do not offer a 3rd year. Market may end up at 3 years, but current supply means it might not. I'd say Papelbon finds an Inepstein to offer 3 years, if I had to make a wild guess. If so, take whatever new CBA provides for compensation and save the money for 2012 and 2013 and 2014 needs.
    At the same time, is any closer worth that much? We do have several options already at closer, Bard, Aceves ( my favorite ) and yes even Jenks if he comes back well ). Unfortunately, Papelbon is also a fly ball pitcher whose results probably degrade some going forward in Fenway. We have lots of cheaper, external closer options available like KRod, Broxton, Bell, Nathan and others if I remember correctly. No way he accepts arbitration. I'm taking the picks. Papelbon is probably looking at 3 years / $40 mil or maybe even 4 years from some team. He is a big addition for any team. I sincerely wish we could keep him just as a fan but the best GM decision is to let him go. That guy is a winner though. If we keep any of these guys, I hope it's Papelbon.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    3) DREW...100% likely to be Gone Baby Gone!

    Heh, I need to pad this somewhere!

    Wakefield likely to be gone baby gone! I'd rather pay Drew 1M to sit on a bench than Wastefield. Drew can still play decent Of defense.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    6) Darvish! YES, but they offer and lose out to the Yanks when Cashman doles out over $50 mil for the right to talk to him!

    I get nervous just talking about that much money. Crawford's deal sends me into convulsions! The Redsox beat them to the punch with Matsuzaka. I don't think that is going to happen again. I'm thinking the Yanks go $53, $54 mil maybe? Crazy huh but Darvish should be a very special talent.

    No, and what a stupid move it would be to pay a ton of money for this pipe dream.

    7) We all know they probably sign at least one starting pitcher. Let's just say this is one mega tough projection so here goes ( Imagine me putting on my blind fold and being turned around 3 times and trying to pin the donkey in the right spot ):

    I think they are MOST likely to sign 2 starters. Doubront and Wieland to be the deep depth. My wild guess is kind of weird since I just projected that Darvish is probably a Yankee but to me the most likely options are below ( pick 1 of the first 2 and one of the second 2:

    Darvish (no)

    Buerhle (market value is infalted and poor value for Red Sox, No)

    Garcia (offer 1M MLB contract plus ladder incentives up to 2M for 22 starts)

    Bedard (offer 1M MLB contract plus ladder incentives up to 2M for 22 starts. My list is comprehensive on another thread, on issue of starting pitching Fa contract offers)


    So, NWIH I get that one right. But I'm willing to give it a shot even with it being extremely unlikely. It could also be Wilson, Harden...etc or even more likely a TRADE but how are we going to project that!

    No way on Wilson (inflated market value from AL West and Yankees will set an absurd market for recent success starting pitchers), offer Harden minor league deal with 1M plus 2M in incentives if he makes opening day roster.
    8) Right Field. I think Reddick or Kalish win that spot in ST ( probably Reddick IMO ). I'm sorry but Cuddyer is a 33 year old type A folks. We are going to find a RH 4th OF to help out some. How about Cuddyer's buddy Jason Kubel! Maybe they slot Kubel in LF and Crawford in RF sometimes or just slot Kubel in LF for Crawford against some pitchers. Kubel could also protect us at DH if Lavarnway tanks ( yeah, add Lavarnway to this mix. I think he is in mlb next year ). Kubel would be a handy guy if we can talk him into this sort of arrangement. I know it's unlikely but if we can sign him to a $3-5 mil per year deal I think they should consider it.

    Red Sox do not need Cudd and Kube. I suspect Cherr may go cheap and hit a
    FA OF dumpster ala Inesptein

    A. promote Reddick and Kalish, whoever plays better plays more and allow the other to be the 4th OFer.

    B. Offer Ellsbury for Kemp, plus one or 2 more blocked farm parts as the Dodgers demand. I provided detials on who is off farm trade list for this deal. Condition deal on extension terms I laid out for Agon last winter, Kemp extension offer should be 7 years and 147M to 154M. Teams may decide to swap additional players based upon better fit and value for both team needs.

    No chance Ellsbury is extended with crawford on Inepstein books. Kemp will match with AGon as the perfect Fenway and road combination. At this stage, Kemp will become a FA if he is not traded. If so, the Yankees will sign Kemp.

    This should be a good start and please, ...use rubber tipped arrows! We take this stuff too seriously. Anyone doing this is going to get lots of stuff wrong. It should all be in good fun.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    5) They pick up Scutaro's option!

    Oh yeah! They've done that already! I just wanted to make sure I got ONE RIGHT!

    Value mistake @ 6M. Scutaro is not even a SS, and at 36 with Fenway inflated offense numbers is only a value at 1 year and 2 to 3M max. Should have declined his option. Market for Scutaro was no more than 1 to 2M and he would have likely exercised player 3M option. one year 1M deal for Gonzo or other veteran adequate defensive SS.

    Folks, how much money did Inepstein spend on SS? When will the bridge to nowhere be completed..................
    Regardless, Red Sox should bring up best defensive SS from minors by next summer and not look backwards.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    4) Tek...Let me see ....Boras as his agent...maybe worth a pick...65% likely to be gone!

    Let me qualify that. I'm not sure they even offer him arb but I think they will and I think he has earned a spot on a team as a valued back up. If we end up finding a way to keep him I have no problem with that at all.

    I have a problem with it. Unless Varisuk agrees to decline arbitration, they should not offer it and pay Varisuk 2M or more! There is no MLB contract market for Varisuk and he has earned a kick to the curb. Despite being a backup and averaging just 33% of season for last 2 years, this clubhouse cancer from 2011 was unable to finish either of the last 2 years. Tito is discarded and Theo is discarded for historical 2011 collapse. Essential to remove the man with the C for Cud from the roster.

    Red Sox need to target Hernandez, if Reds don't offer arbitration, and offer 1 year and 3 to 4M and option 2nd year 3 to 4M and 1.5M buyout. If offers are higher or Reds offer arbitration (will be declined), then offer Laird one year and 1.25M. backup default plan is Salty and Lavarnway.

    Essential to rid the team of 40 year old Jason Varitek.
     
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