OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    And, with this budget, softy thinks our top priority is signing ramon Hernandez. How many points does he get for that?

    Our CBT budget so far...
    (avg anual salary of contract)

    AGon  $22.0M
    Craw  $20.3M
    Beck   $17.0M
    Lack   $16.5M
    Youk  $10.3M
    Dice     $8.0M
    Buch    $7.5M
    Ells    ~$7.0M (est arb raise- 2nd of 3- from $2.4M in '11)
    Pedey $6.7M
    Lest    $6.0M
    Jenks  $6.0M
    Scut    $5.7M
    Bard  ~2.5M  (est arb- 1sy of 3- from $.505M in '11)
    Acev ~$2.5M
    (est arb- 1st of 3- from $.65M in '11) 
    Salty ~$2.5M (est arb-2nd of 3- from $.75M in '11)
    Iggy    $2.1M
    Aviles~$1.0M (est arb-1st of 3- from $.64M in '11)
    Albers~1.0M  (est arb- 2nd of 3- from $.875M in '11) 
    Taza ~$0.8M  (est, pre-arb, then 4 more arbs: made $1.1M x 3 yrs)
    Lowrie ~$.8M (est arb- 1st of 3- from $.45M in '11)
    DMac ~$0.5M  (est, pre-arb, then 3 more arbs: made $.47M in '11)
    Moral ~$0.5M (est arb-1st of 3- from $.424M in '11)
    Doub ~$0.5M (pre-arb, then 2 more pre-arbs+3 arbs: made $.417M)
    Atch  ~$0.5M (pre-arb, then 1 more pre-arb+3 arbs: made $.454M)
    R.Hill ~$0.5M (2nd arb? out of 3???)
    All the rest are pre-arb and close to minimum salary:.

    Oki??? 2nd of 3 arbs: made $1.75M in '11 (May let him go)

    By my estimate, our total payroll budget (assuming we sign the arb guys)is currently at about: Lavarnway, Kalish, Reddick, Bowden (no options), Weiland, Anderson, Tejada, Exposito, Pimental, etc...
    Add about $8M for the rest at near min salary:



    $156M Total Estimated Salary for 2012 with no moves.

    It was about $164M in 2011 and $168M in 2010 according to Cots.
    It was about $167M in 2011 according to baseball reference, and they estimate our 2012 player payroll budget (with arbs signed) at about $160.4M.

    I think many posters are grossly over-estimating how much we have to spend this winter to fill at least 7 slots (with kids or otherwise):
    1) SP
    2) SP
    3) Closer/Set-up
    4) DH
    5) RP
    6) RF (RH'd)
    7) C



     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Another option--TRADE YOUK --We need to determine if Youk is more valuable than Papi.
    We are really heavy lefthanded without Youk.
    Does Youk offer better protection for AGon than Papi?
    Could Youk put up Papi numbers if all he did was DH?
    Youk does offer back-up protection at 1 b and 3 b when we play in NL parks also.

    Is this all business or sentiment? If it's business like Papelbon--you let Papi walk whether you get a draft pick or not. Thanks for all these great years but we are going in a different direction with the DH position. AND the  same with YOUK--we have a 1 b and we don't think you can play 140 games at 3 b and be productive--we are going in a different direction. We are searching for a trade--where would you like to play next season--we will do our best.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    As a fan i absolutely hate breaking up this team. Papelbon was one unique, high performing character. My wife loved watching him and it seemed to increase her interest in the team. We are going to miss that guy. Same with all these guys just about. Ortiz, Tek, Youk. At some point everyone moves on. I wish they could play forever. Who here doesn't have real affection for these guys? Youk is like the core of that team. He personifies work ethic and hustle. 

    At the same time we need to punch that button at the appropriate time. Everyone gets voted off the island eventually. I don't think it's that time for Youk and I don't understand why it keeps getting brought up. We need a 3rd baseman and we need RH hitters.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]As a fan i absolutely hate breaking up this team. Papelbon was one unique, high performing character. My wife loved watching him and it seemed to increase her interest in the team. We are going to miss that guy. Same with all these guys just about. Ortiz, Tek, Youk. At some point everyone moves on. I wish they could play forever. Who here doesn't have real affection for these guys? Youk is like the core of that team. He personifies work ethic and hustle.  At the same time we need to punch that button at the appropriate time. Everyone gets voted off the island eventually. I don't think it's that time for Youk and I don't understand why it keeps getting brought up. We need a 3rd baseman and we need RH hitters.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    There is a supply/demand curve for every player.  Starting at age 27, maybe 28, a players salary continues to increase while their overall production (including injuries) continues to decline.  It's not a precise science since we have to account for positional needs, team psyche, etc., but theoretically, once the salary line crosses over the production line, you get voted off of the island.

    Past that, you need to consider timing and value issues as well.  Youk is at the point where his hitting, fielding, and health is approximately what his salary is.  I'd guess he still has value in excess of salary, but not a huge amount.  If we could trade him for a better 'value' at a bigger 'need', why not do so?

    The way I see it, what is the difference between Youk and an internal solution (Lowrie/Aviles) and what is the difference between someone like Floyd and an internal solution (assuming we can do Youk for Floyd)?

    Beyond that, we'd need to consider Middlebrooks.  Is he ready later this year?  next April?  Or is he trade bait?  If he can be ready this year, then you almost have to consider trading Youk.  If he is ready next April, then maybe you can keep Youk, but then you can't keep Papi, since Youk will be the DH.

    It's not so much about Youk as it is about fit and how the team will look going forward.  IMO, the biggest focus has to be our 4/5/6 SPs, and not Youk or Papi.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please! : There is a supply/demand curve for every player.  Starting at age 27, maybe 28, a players salary continues to increase while their overall production (including injuries) continues to decline.  It's not a precise science since we have to account for positional needs, team psyche, etc., but theoretically, once the salary line crosses over the production line, you get voted off of the island. Past that, you need to consider timing and value issues as well.  Youk is at the point where his hitting, fielding, and health is approximately what his salary is.  I'd guess he still has value in excess of salary, but not a huge amount.  If we could trade him for a better 'value' at a bigger 'need', why not do so? The way I see it, what is the difference between Youk and an internal solution (Lowrie/Aviles) and what is the difference between someone like Floyd and an internal solution (assuming we can do Youk for Floyd)? Beyond that, we'd need to consider Middlebrooks.  Is he ready later this year?  next April?  Or is he trade bait?  If he can be ready this year, then you almost have to consider trading Youk.  If he is ready next April, then maybe you can keep Youk, but then you can't keep Papi, since Youk will be the DH. It's not so much about Youk as it is about fit and how the team will look going forward.  IMO, the biggest focus has to be our 4/5/6 SPs, and not Youk or Papi.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    Agreed Joe on the pitching issue in 2012. And I'd trade anyone if I can get a better value. Even Youk but I'd hesitate to do that some with a guy like Youk, who has personified hustle on this team.

    I think Middlebrooks is overated personally. Someone got a man crush on him over at soxprospects and is leading that parade, as they say I have on Lavarnway. Middlebrooks is an outstanding prospect for sure but they have him at #1. I just don't think that is appropriate. He hit .285 last year, in by far his best offensive year to date, with around a .328 OBP. If we want a good fielding, .265 hitting, low OBP 3rd baseman with 15-20 HR he might be our guy but I don't think we can project much more out of him at any time soon. I'd leave him in Pawtucket unless we have a major injury and that is assuming that Lowrie or Aviles get traded. To me, Lavarnway is now our obvious top prospect.

    I do like Middlebrook's defense a lot though and he will be a cheap asset for a long time. He slots in around #7 in the lineup in another year or so, and yes as a September call up and he should drive in some runs. For those people who do not like Reddick because of plate discipline though, look for round 2 with Middlebrooks. That does not mean that they are not assets and even potential starters. Defense is extremely important, particularly at 3rd. He just looks like he will not be a middle of the order bat. I hope of course that he proves me absolutely wrong. It would be terrific to see him emerge and it certainly is possible. Just not likely IMO.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please! : SoxDog67 does that sheepish snicker he is known for on cartoon network!
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    actually Boomer I was not snickering about this at all...even though I got this piece right, I'll miss the big lug closing games for the Sox.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    The way I see it, what is the difference between Youk and an internal solution (Lowrie/Aviles)

    Joe, do you even think before you move your fingers...........................
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]dog. think you have the best plans I read on here. Particularly like the Kemp/Ells/ Size(gamble) option.Only problem is keeping Bedard, if the small sample we saw is what we can expectResponse to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please! :
    Posted by feelec[/QUOTE]

    feelec, I don't really see the Kemp/Ells/Sizemore dynamic actually happening, I just wanted to predict something that might be considered off the mainstream and something that would be fun to see.

    I'd settle for signing Beltran for RF (for reasonable dough and years - i.e. 1/2 years at $8M) and keeping Ellsbury, but get Nathan, Capps and Gonzalez for the bullpen while moving Aceves to the rotation (as much as I love him in his bullpen role).

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please! : actually Boomer I was not snickering about this at all...even though I got this piece right, I'll miss the big lug closing games for the Sox.
    Posted by Soxdog67[/QUOTE]

    I feel the same way. He was a classic!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan28. Show redsoxfan28's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Here's mine:

    Red Sox hire Dale Sveum as their manager
    Red Sox hire Gene Lamont as their bench coach
    Red Sox make Tim Bogar the first base coach
    Red Sox make Demarlo Hale their third base coach
    Red Sox make Jim Hickey their pitching coach
    Red Sox sign Ortiz to a two year deal plus a club option for a third year
    Red Sox sign Joe Nathan to be their closer
    Red Sox sign Broxton and Wuertz
    Red Sox sign Beltran to a two year deal
    Gonzalez will have another MVP season
    Salty will hit 20+ homers and will be an All-Star
    Crawford will rebound from last season and will become an All-Star
    Ellsbury will have another MVP season
    Pedroia will have an excellent year
    Youkilis will be healthy the whole year
    Beckett will lose some weight and win 16 games
    Lester will win 20+ games
    Buchholz will win 20+ games

    Lineup:

    Ellsbury
    Crawford
    Pedroia
    Gonzalez
    Ortiz
    Youkils
    Beltran
    Saltalamacchia
    Scutaro

    Rotation:

    Beckett
    Lester
    Buchholz
    Aceves
    Doubront

    Bullpen:

    Wuertz
    Broxton
    Albers
    Bowden
    Bard
    Nathan

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jb12bb. Show jb12bb's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    With Papelbon gone, look for them to save a little money at this postion with a guy like Joe Nathan or signing two lesser guys to bolster the pen and give the job to Bard.

    Papi will be back, probably at a 2 year deal with a highly reachable 3rd.  If he signs elsewhere look for them to sign Beltran immediately.  Id like to see them split DH time with a combo of Beltran/Youkils/Gonzo if Ortiz leaves.  Middlebrooks is not ready but Lowrie and Avilas can play all around the diamond if needed.  Another guy who could see time at DH is Lavarnway.

    Money will be spent on pitching.  Wilson and Buerhle will get to large an offer for the sox to stick with them.

    I see them going after three Starters with one of them being a low risk injury type like Ben Sheets.  Not that they are counting on him for much but Dice K should be able to contribute after the allstar break.

    They have to lock up Ellsbury this offseason, but it will take a Crawford like deal to get it done and that might not feasable for the RS unless they skimp this offseason and create some financial relief.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    In Response to Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!:
    [QUOTE]With Papelbon gone, look for them to save a little money at this postion with a guy like Joe Nathan or signing two lesser guys to bolster the pen and give the job to Bard. Papi will be back, probably at a 2 year deal with a highly reachable 3rd.  If he signs elsewhere look for them to sign Beltran immediately.  Id like to see them split DH time with a combo of Beltran/Youkils/Gonzo if Ortiz leaves.  Middlebrooks is not ready but Lowrie and Avilas can play all around the diamond if needed.  Another guy who could see time at DH is Lavarnway. Money will be spent on pitching.  Wilson and Buerhle will get to large an offer for the sox to stick with them. I see them going after three Starters with one of them being a low risk injury type like Ben Sheets.  Not that they are counting on him for much but Dice K should be able to contribute after the allstar break. They have to lock up Ellsbury this offseason, but it will take a Crawford like deal to get it done and that might not feasable for the RS unless they skimp this offseason and create some financial relief.
    Posted by jb12bb[/QUOTE]
    A deal with Ellsbury is unlikely because the money needs to spent for more immediate needs, and because he's shown no interest in an extension.  He'll get a hefty arb raise for 2012 and, if he has another outstanding year, another hefty one for 2013. And he may simply prefer to play elsewhere.
    He is risking either injury or a fall-off in production during the next two seasons, but all the evidence suggests that he willing to do so. So Boston will have his services for two years at what is now below his market value. Worse things could happen to a team.
    Unless, of course, between now and the trade deadline in 2013, the club moves him for what it considers equal value on the mound. That will not be easy.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    A deal with Ellsbury is unlikely because the money needs to spent for more immediate needs, and because he's shown no interest in an extension.  He'll get a hefty arb raise for 2012 and, if he has another outstanding year, another hefty one for 2013. And he may simply prefer to play elsewhere.

    Yes, and having Bora$$ as an agent just about assures he will go to the highest bidder.

    He is risking either injury or a fall-off in production during the next two seasons, but all the evidence suggests that he willing to do so. So Boston will have his services for two years at what is now below his market value. Worse things could happen to a team.

    Some players will accept less for the security and a nice signing bonus after being "underpaid" for years, but not Bora$$ clients. 2 years of jacoby should be nice, but it's hard to accept we'll just get 2 draft picks (assuming the system is the same) and nothing more. It has not been the Sox philosophy to deal players they know they will not re-sign, but you never know.

    Unless, of course, between now and the trade deadline in 2013, the club moves him for what it considers equal value on the mound. That will not be easy.

    Especially if that pitcher has 3+ team control years.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    It would seem that at minimum Cherington will offer Papi arbitration. We may see an answer regarding Ortiz in the next month or so. I would think by Christmas. Cherington is going to want to resolve this first before pursuing an OF, DH ...etc.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Bill Jame's projections are now available on fangraphs. As a Redsox employee he might have some idea of what the plan is for Redsox prospects coming up. He seems to have LAvarnway projected for about 1/2 season of PT, for example as maybe a part time catcher? Not as a full time DH. Again, more indication that Papi is more likely to come back.


    .275 ave. Around a .351 OBP, 13 HR in roughly 231 AB. Those a decent offensive numbers in 231 AB. All the more reason to play him more IMO. That's 33 HR in 600 AB folks.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Reddick had a PLUS 20.2 UZR/150 in the OF last year. That's a big part of his game. Especially in our RF. Dealing with all that space. Sun issues...etc. BTW, James projects him for 493 mlb AB. 19 HR but only a .249 average.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    BJ projects Ortiz at 30 HR, .277 average. 623 AB. Why not just play Lavarnway more if that is the case? 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    How can he be projected to hit 30 homers when he has only done that once in the last four years (32)?

    He is likely 26 homers... and down from there every year thereafter - BurritoT projection.

    Though I do stand on record that if David plays elsewhere he will hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs as a "in your face Boston" season, and that will be followed by a quick decline 25/85, and 22/75... and out of baseball by 2015.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Bill James has that multivariable calculus thing going. He is as good as anyone at this!
     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!

    Wow.... I don't see one thing in his thread that is correct yet Sindarin claims "good job" ?? Huh?

     

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