Old school stats vs. new school stats

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

     

     

    While Jeter''s defensive proficiency is certainly a topic for debate, so are these new fangled defensive metrics.

     




    Jeter's defensive proficiency is legendary. 

     

     

    And by legendary, I mean mythical.  As in, very few have seen it, and none of them who have are reliable.

     

    He should exchange his Gold Gloves and be awarded a Golden Sasquatch instead.

     

     

     

    How is THAT for debate?

     

     

     



    I have seen Jeter not make plays that most others would have. I've also seen the opposite. He is IMO, a defensive paradox. And, just like me, you're entitled to your opinion.  

     




    So you have seen him fail to make players others would have, and seen the opposite, which would be failing to make plays others would not have?

     

    I rest my case....

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to royf19's comment:

    I haven't read all the posts yet, but I just wanted to weigh in with a thought or two.

    Regardless of whether or not they're old school or new school, any one stat is useless unless they're used in context with other stats.

    For example, OPS is a great stat, but if the batter has a low BA w/RISP -- Drew a couple of years ago -- then in my opinion that great OPS loses some luster. If a hitter has 40 HRs, that looks great, but if he's batting .210 with 70 RBIs and a .280 OBP in 600 PA, then those 40 HRs aren't so great.

    ERA is a great stat and a lousy stat. A low ERA tells a lot about a pitcher. It's hard to distort a bad (or even mediocre) ERA with two or three great starts. Yeah, those great starts will help but only two a point. On the other hand, two or three really horrible stats can easily distort an otherwise great ERA. Look at Lester and Beckett last year. I forget the exact numbers, but Beckett and Lester each had ERAs in the mid- to high 4.00s (maybe even low) after 13 starts for Beckett and 15 (maybe 17 starts) for Lester. But if you took away their two worst starts, Beckett's ERA was around 2.50 and Lester's 3.50 -- something like that. (WHIP is the same way).

    So no matter what stats you are looking at, you need to look at more than one stat and you have too look deep into individual stats to see what's going on.



    Don't quite understand taking away their two worst starts, or figuring, for example,

    Beckett's ERA taking away his first innings.  The bad starts, the bad innings, count.

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to georom4's comment:

    Im going to stick with <flush>

    the first thing i learned in statistics class is that if you cant control all factors that influence the said activity, then your measurement  is not valid...

    is the wind being measured? the sunny field? the wet, heavy air? the velocity of the ball hit? are all ballparks the same size? do all players have the same reflexes (wouldnt that make as much sense as tracking their positioning?)  the variables are endless which makes UZR moot...

     

     




     

    Your teacher was horrible if he/she taught you that.  However, to rise to defense, I do not beielve you, and certainly not that it was the first thing you were taught.

     

    By the way, the same logic also negates batting average, ERA,, and, well, every statitistic in baseball.  After all, doesn't the wind, and the position of the fielder, and the reflexes have effect there too?  What factors are controlled by batting average?

     

    The reflexes one was funny, by the way.  Really?  You are going to use that?  Hey, why not argue that we cannot use these statistics to grade defenders since the defenders are different, too?

     

    You, know, I bet somewhere on the web, someone is defending Terry Francona right now.  Are you just going to sit there and let that happen?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

     

     

    While Jeter''s defensive proficiency is certainly a topic for debate, so are these new fangled defensive metrics.

     




    Jeter's defensive proficiency is legendary. 

     

     

    And by legendary, I mean mythical.  As in, very few have seen it, and none of them who have are reliable.

     

    He should exchange his Gold Gloves and be awarded a Golden Sasquatch instead.

     

     

     

    How is THAT for debate?

     

     

     



    I have seen Jeter not make plays that most others would have. I've also seen the opposite. He is IMO, a defensive paradox. And, just like me, you're entitled to your opinion.  

     

     




    So you have seen him fail to make players others would have, and seen the opposite, which would be failing to make plays others would not have?

     

     

    I rest my case....

     




     

    I didn't think I'd have to explain, so here I go. To paraphrase for those not challenged intellectually, but via other fandom inspired comedic attributes (or lack thereof):

    I've seen him make plays likely nobody would make; the flip play, several in the stands, some miraculous DPs, and he is the best relay man I've ever seen (recall the 1999 PS Series, Yankees vs Red Sox for an example); Pesky could have learned something if he played 60 yrs later. Pedroia is good at this as well, but he doesn't quite have Jeter's relay arm.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to georom4's comment:

    Im going to stick with <flush>

    the first thing i learned in statistics class is that if you cant control all factors that influence the said activity, then your measurement  is not valid...

    is the wind being measured? the sunny field? the wet, heavy air? the velocity of the ball hit? are all ballparks the same size? do all players have the same reflexes (wouldnt that make as much sense as tracking their positioning?)  the variables are endless which makes UZR moot...

    Remember, this is the stat that said Cameron was a better center fielder than Elllsbury...why would anyone even consider this stat useful?

    Using your eyes is a much more accurate way of judging a fielder....your brain is the greatest computer ever created and it is quite capable of judging a ball player defensivily

     




    Geo, that makes no sense at all.  What baseball activities have completely controllable variables and therefore are, in your eyes, valid?

      • BA? - nope, sun in the batter's eyes
      • HR? - nope, wind can carry or hold back a fly ball
      • Any pitching activity? - nope, pitcher could have a hangnail

    • Any batting activity? - nope, batter could have a hangover

    A good statistic should minimise the noise around the measurement of a specific activity.  That's why an individual's runs, RBIs and wins are such poor statistics....they are team activities (other than a home run) and come nowhere near isolating an individual's performance.   

    No one is claiming UZR or any statistic is perfect....only "anti-stat" people like you are claiming that "pro-stat" people are making that claim!   It clearly has some validity....just look at the top and bottom of the UZR list posted earlier and compare it to your and most people's observation.  How do you propose to evaluate the range of all MLB SSs when you only watch most of them on television a handful of times over a season?  

     

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    no problem with the he has worse range stuff

    but not buying  the worse defensively stuff

    [/QUOTE]

    Zac, You are a fair poster IMO, but I think you are missing something on this one.  

    Jeter is sure handed, he comes straight in well and he makes plays in the outfield well.  Even with all those positives he has been a terrible liability in the field for a long time because he allows a large amount of hits b/c of his poor range.

    The same numbers that show he makes way less plays than he should, show that Cano made more than Pedroia last year.

    2012  Range Factor,  Total Chances,  Games:

    Ped          4.59              625               139  

    Cano       4.82              726               154

    Aviles      4.68              591               128

    Jeter      3.76               506              135

    ESPN DWAR had him as the worst fielding player at SS or 3B in MLB.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    Im going to stick with <flush>

    the first thing i learned in statistics class is that if you cant control all factors that influence the said activity, then your measurement  is not valid...

    is the wind being measured? the sunny field? the wet, heavy air? the velocity of the ball hit? are all ballparks the same size? do all players have the same reflexes (wouldnt that make as much sense as tracking their positioning?)  the variables are endless which makes UZR moot...

    Remember, this is the stat that said Cameron was a better center fielder than Elllsbury...why would anyone even consider this stat useful?

    Using your eyes is a much more accurate way of judging a fielder....your brain is the greatest computer ever created and it is quite capable of judging a ball player defensivily

     

     




    Geo, that makes no sense at all.  What baseball activities have completely controllable variables and therefore are, in your eyes, valid?

     

      • BA? - nope, sun in the batter's eyes
      • HR? - nope, wind can carry or hold back a fly ball
      • Any pitching activity? - nope, pitcher could have a hangnail

     

    • Any batting activity? - nope, batter could have a hangover

     

    A good statistic should minimise the noise around the measurement of a specific activity.  That's why an individual's runs, RBIs and wins are such poor statistics....they are team activities (other than a home run) and come nowhere near isolating an individual's performance.   

    No one is claiming UZR or any statistic is perfect....only "anti-stat" people like you are claiming that "pro-stat" people are making that claim!   It clearly has some validity....just look at the top and bottom of the UZR list posted earlier and compare it to your and most people's observation.  How do you propose to evaluate the range of all MLB SSs when you only watch most of them on television a handful of times over a season?  

     

     



    i agree with both you and Notin that ANY stat can be incomplete....but the worst of the lot have to be defensive stats - they do not monitor production as batting stats do...im simply saying you are better off taking a holistic view of defense than relying on any metric....there is such a thing as a Triple crown winner - are you really comparing UZR to HRs? RBI's? BA?

    Its funny that the argument that UZR proponents use is that errors are not a good stat to guage defense...really?


    I came across an article in 2010 about UZR and it was quite funny that Sox players like Youk and Cameron had no idea what theirs were...they didnt even take it seriously....then of course the article jumped the shark by saying this is why cameron has to play centerfield...But it also ended with francona and the theo saying that they have their own ddefensive metrics that they rely on/not uzr (they didnt specify) and that a 7th inning defensive replacement would not be based on uzr...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to georom4's comment:



    Geo, that makes no sense at all.  What baseball activities have completely controllable variables and therefore are, in your eyes, valid?

     

      • BA? - nope, sun in the batter's eyes
      • HR? - nope, wind can carry or hold back a fly ball
      • Any pitching activity? - nope, pitcher could have a hangnail

     

    • Any batting activity? - nope, batter could have a hangover

     

    A good statistic should minimise the noise around the measurement of a specific activity.  That's why an individual's runs, RBIs and wins are such poor statistics....they are team activities (other than a home run) and come nowhere near isolating an individual's performance.   

    No one is claiming UZR or any statistic is perfect....only "anti-stat" people like you are claiming that "pro-stat" people are making that claim!   It clearly has some validity....just look at the top and bottom of the UZR list posted earlier and compare it to your and most people's observation.  How do you propose to evaluate the range of all MLB SSs when you only watch most of them on television a handful of times over a season?  

     
    i agree with both you and Notin that ANY stat can be incomplete....but the worst of the lot have to be defensive stats - they do not monitor production as batting stats do...im simply saying you are better off taking a holistic view of defense than relying on any metric....there is such a thing as a Triple crown winner - are you really comparing UZR to HRs? RBI's? BA?


    Its funny that the argument that UZR proponents use is that errors are not a good stat to guage defense...really?


    I came across an article in 2010 about UZR and it was quite funny that Sox players like Youk and Cameron had no idea what theirs were...they didnt even take it seriously....then of course the article jumped the shark by saying this is why cameron has to play centerfield...But it also ended with francona and the theo saying that they have their own ddefensive metrics that they rely on/not uzr (they didnt specify) and that a 7th inning defensive replacement would not be based on uzr...




    We also agree that defensive stats have not been developed to the same level as offensive and pitching stats......yet.  They probably will never reach the same level of detail and accuracy because as you say there are so many variables plus there are far fewer component parts.  But those are all reasons to be cautious when using them, fully understand them and use them in conjunction with observation....not reasons to categorically reject them.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    Since Jeter became the starting SS in 1996 the Yankees have made the playoffs 16 out of 17 years and won about 60% of their games.  So it would seem to indicate that his defence has had very little negative impact on the team.

    Here's one: are there any specific games the Yankees lost because of Jeter's poor defence?  If so which ones?

    That's one of the challenges of these new stats.  Where are the specific plays that matter?  Without them it's just a mass of abstract numbers.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    Old school vs new school. Probably some combination of both is the best school. Baseball can be a product of luck as well, a ball hitting the line vs. just missing, a player getting a seeing eye groundball thru the infield in a big spot being called "clutch hitters' the arguements could go on for ever and what makes baseball so fun to talk about. If a guy consistently drives in over a 100 runs year after year don't need anyone to tell me the guy is or isn't a productive run producer. If stats are consisistent they do tell a story regardless of what stat geeks might say are a useless stat. The eye test can be very useful as well, for me doesn't matter if it is the 4th or 9th inning if player consistently [more than others] gets that tieing or go ahead run home for me he is clutch, if another player seems to pad his stats in blow outs or against bad pitchers but consisently fails to get that big run home [Arod] he is not clutch in my book. Remember even some defensive rating are human eye test, would another fielder make that play, but did the judge of this take into account the wind or sun or light towers that might have blocked that players chance to make that play in that given moment? Most of us watch a player play game after game and know he is good defensively or see an opponent come in for 3-4 games and are impressed with a certain players defensive game, thats the eye test. But the numbers don't lie as well.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Since Jeter became the starting SS in 1996 the Yankees have made the playoffs 16 out of 17 years and won about 60% of their games.  So it would seem to indicate that his defence has had very little negative impact on the team.

    Here's one: are there any specific games the Yankees lost because of Jeter's poor defence?  If so which ones?

    That's one of the challenges of these new stats.  Where are the specific plays that matter?  Without them it's just a mass of abstract numbers.

     

    one more reason why i refuse to accept this uzr nonsense...jeter is a champ - the joe D of his generation....sox fans who come on here and say he's the worst shortstop make no sense to me...i cant remember anyone saying "the yanks would win more if jeter didnt play ss"...

     




     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Since Jeter became the starting SS in 1996 the Yankees have made the playoffs 16 out of 17 years and won about 60% of their games.  So it would seem to indicate that his defence has had very little negative impact on the team.

    Here's one: are there any specific games the Yankees lost because of Jeter's poor defence?  If so which ones?

    That's one of the challenges of these new stats.  Where are the specific plays that matter?  Without them it's just a mass of abstract numbers.

     

    one more reason why i refuse to accept this uzr nonsense...jeter is a champ - the joe D of his generation....sox fans who come on here and say he's the worst shortstop make no sense to me...i cant remember anyone saying "the yanks would win more if jeter didnt play ss"...

     



    C'mon guys, not the Loscutoff Argument a.k.a. the Silvera Corollary?  I think Jeter overall is a great player, even a great shortstop, but his defense is sub-standard for a SS....certainly in the latter half of his career to date.  Perhaps being one part of a great team for 17 years had something to do with 16 playoff appearances? 

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I love baseball stats but man, do they create a lot of confusion and controversy.  The old school vs. new school battle rages on.  Some people think stats like a pitcher's won-lost record and a hitter's RBI total are meaningless.  New school stats like WAR and UZR, of course, are mocked viciously by the old school people.

    I try to take in all the stats and make sense of them.  I grew up with baseball cards and Yaz's Triple Crown in 1967 and Denny McLain's 31 wins and Gibson's 1.12 ERA in 1968.  I thought those numbers were spectacular at the time and I still do.  Nolan Ryan's 383 strikeouts in 1973-insane!

    And I still relate heavily to the standard numbers.  When we signed Manny Ramirez you bet I was juiced to get a guy who had 165 RBI in 147 games in 1999.

    As for the new ones, I sort of understand what numbers like WAR and UZR are trying to measure.  Then there are the ones like FIP % and ones that look like hieroglyphics that I have no clue about.

    Now what I really wanna know is: is Derek Jeter really a terrible shortstop?  That still surprises me and seems to be one of the classic conundrums of old vs. new. 



    How many years has Jeter been playing short? It would take a real stupid person to say that Derek Jeter is a terrible shortstop..What the heck is wrong with people who judge people just because they don't like him or the teams they play for.? Would Jeter be a better shortstop if he played 18 years for Sox?  If you are a profesional in any sport and someone who is sitting in front of a computer and trys to tell everyone how terrible that player is ,really needs his head examined. Get a life and stop being jealous......

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    C'mon guys, not the Loscutoff Argument a.k.a. the Silvera Corollary?  I think Jeter overall is a great player, even a great shortstop, but his defense is sub-standard for a SS....certainly in the latter half of his career to date.  Perhaps being one part of a great team for 17 years had something to do with 16 playoff appearances? 



    Of course.  My issue with UZR is very simple.  Where are the damn plays?  When a player is charged with a fielding error we can all find it, and we know exactly how many unearned runs that resulted etc. 

    But where can we can find the 'UZR errors' and the runs that resulted?

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    C'mon guys, not the Loscutoff Argument a.k.a. the Silvera Corollary?  I think Jeter overall is a great player, even a great shortstop, but his defense is sub-standard for a SS....certainly in the latter half of his career to date.  Perhaps being one part of a great team for 17 years had something to do with 16 playoff appearances? 


    Of course.  My issue with UZR is very simple.  Where are the damn plays?  When a player is charged with a fielding error we can all find it, and we know exactly how many unearned runs that resulted etc. 

    But where can we can find the 'UZR errors' and the runs that resulted?

     




    I imagine it's available given that UZR "compares the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player."

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:


    I imagine it's available given that UZR "compares the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player."



    In other words, it remains an abstraction and no specific plays that affected outcomes will be identified.  And I can keep asking for games that Jeter's defence lost and nobody will ever be able to answer me.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to georom4's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

     

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    Im going to stick with <flush>

    the first thing i learned in statistics class is that if you cant control all factors that influence the said activity, then your measurement  is not valid...

    is the wind being measured? the sunny field? the wet, heavy air? the velocity of the ball hit? are all ballparks the same size? do all players have the same reflexes (wouldnt that make as much sense as tracking their positioning?)  the variables are endless which makes UZR moot...

    Remember, this is the stat that said Cameron was a better center fielder than Elllsbury...why would anyone even consider this stat useful?

    Using your eyes is a much more accurate way of judging a fielder....your brain is the greatest computer ever created and it is quite capable of judging a ball player defensivily

     

     




    Geo, that makes no sense at all.  What baseball activities have completely controllable variables and therefore are, in your eyes, valid?

     

      • BA? - nope, sun in the batter's eyes
      • HR? - nope, wind can carry or hold back a fly ball
      • Any pitching activity? - nope, pitcher could have a hangnail

     

    • Any batting activity? - nope, batter could have a hangover

     

    A good statistic should minimise the noise around the measurement of a specific activity.  That's why an individual's runs, RBIs and wins are such poor statistics....they are team activities (other than a home run) and come nowhere near isolating an individual's performance.   

    No one is claiming UZR or any statistic is perfect....only "anti-stat" people like you are claiming that "pro-stat" people are making that claim!   It clearly has some validity....just look at the top and bottom of the UZR list posted earlier and compare it to your and most people's observation.  How do you propose to evaluate the range of all MLB SSs when you only watch most of them on television a handful of times over a season?  

     

     

     



    i agree with both you and Notin that ANY stat can be incomplete....but the worst of the lot have to be defensive stats - they do not monitor production as batting stats do...im simply saying you are better off taking a holistic view of defense than relying on any metric....there is such a thing as a Triple crown winner - are you really comparing UZR to HRs? RBI's? BA?

     

    Its funny that the argument that UZR proponents use is that errors are not a good stat to guage defense...really?


    I came across an article in 2010 about UZR and it was quite funny that Sox players like Youk and Cameron had no idea what theirs were...they didnt even take it seriously....then of course the article jumped the shark by saying this is why cameron has to play centerfield...But it also ended with francona and the theo saying that they have their own ddefensive metrics that they rely on/not uzr (they didnt specify) and that a 7th inning defensive replacement would not be based on uzr...



    Part of why UZR has yet to take hold is that it's very creator has already stated that it has to be weighted in 3 year cycles. When one seasons worth of data is considered a small sample. Even the most ardent supporters of the system can't emphatically state that UZR should be the gold standard for how to measure defensive metrics. 

    So we're left with incomplete means to truly value defense and the gold glove. the standard for defensive excellence continues to be a popularity contest vs going to the best defensive player at each position. 

    As for whether errors are or are not a good measure of defensive excellence. A case could be made that not all errors are alike and the circumstances of the game dictate the risk reward of an infielder trying to make a play vs eating the ball. This is where the eye test is the best measure And it also is where having a quality first baseman can mean the difference between throwing the ball and eating it. If you have a first baseman that's adept at picking the ball you're more likely to let it fly knowing that if you get it anywhere near the bag that he'll make the play. Conversely if he has hands of stone, your lack of confidence in him making the play can cause an infielder to try to make the perfect throw and could be the difference between making the out and not...every 10th of a second = about three strides. 

    Great defensive players rarely make mental errors which are the ones that to me are the most aggregous. They also make the routine play look routine. If your SS as an example has sure hands and during the coarse of a season makes the routine play 99 times out of 100 with one mental error accounting for the error I would think we'd all take that. During the coarse of a season how many times does a SS have to make the do or die play and of those what's his pct of success vs making an error? If you subtract the do or die errors from a players total errors taking into account how many of those were balls he should have eaten vs trying to make the play. I think you could arrive at a better statistical value on errors.

    While range is an important tangible for measuring a SS and most of the all time greats Ozzie, Apparicio, Belanger and Vizquel due to having the lateral quickness got to allot of balls that mere humans had to dive for. range alone is not the penultimate measure. If you don 't have the arm and the footwork to make a strong and accurate throw after fielding the ball it's moot. David Eckstein had very good range, but a water pistole for an arm. He made himself into a ML SS by perfecting a quick release.  He was also very good at turning the DP and made the routine play look routine. 

    In the end one has to take the total sum of the parts to arrive at the proper evaluation of a players defensive ability. The SS is the guy that's responsible for more than just fielding ground balls and throwing it to first. So when evaluating who's the best of the best. It's not that tough, but to arrive at how best to evaluate Jeter's impact on the entire defense is where UZR IMHO falls short. The intangible of leadership can't be measured. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Since Jeter became the starting SS in 1996 the Yankees have made the playoffs 16 out of 17 years and won about 60% of their games.  So it would seem to indicate that his defence has had very little negative impact on the team.

    Here's one: are there any specific games the Yankees lost because of Jeter's poor defence?  If so which ones?

    That's one of the challenges of these new stats.  Where are the specific plays that matter?  Without them it's just a mass of abstract numbers.

     



    I was thinking this as well. I can't ever remember him making a "bad" defensive play in the clutch (although I've seen good, i.e, the flip play, one of the greatest plays in BB history, and if he doesn't make that play, they don't go to the WS), but I'm sure this has happened.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to donrd4's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    I love baseball stats but man, do they create a lot of confusion and controversy.  The old school vs. new school battle rages on.  Some people think stats like a pitcher's won-lost record and a hitter's RBI total are meaningless.  New school stats like WAR and UZR, of course, are mocked viciously by the old school people.

    I try to take in all the stats and make sense of them.  I grew up with baseball cards and Yaz's Triple Crown in 1967 and Denny McLain's 31 wins and Gibson's 1.12 ERA in 1968.  I thought those numbers were spectacular at the time and I still do.  Nolan Ryan's 383 strikeouts in 1973-insane!

    And I still relate heavily to the standard numbers.  When we signed Manny Ramirez you bet I was juiced to get a guy who had 165 RBI in 147 games in 1999.

    As for the new ones, I sort of understand what numbers like WAR and UZR are trying to measure.  Then there are the ones like FIP % and ones that look like hieroglyphics that I have no clue about.

    Now what I really wanna know is: is Derek Jeter really a terrible shortstop?  That still surprises me and seems to be one of the classic conundrums of old vs. new. 

     



    How many years has Jeter been playing short? It would take a real stupid person to say that Derek Jeter is a terrible shortstop..What the heck is wrong with people who judge people just because they don't like him or the teams they play for.? Would Jeter be a better shortstop if he played 18 years for Sox?  If you are a profesional in any sport and someone who is sitting in front of a computer and trys to tell everyone how terrible that player is ,really needs his head examined. Get a life and stop being jealous......

     



    There is some truth to this  + 1/2

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

     


    I imagine it's available given that UZR "compares the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player."


    In other words, it remains an abstraction and no specific plays that affected outcomes will be identified.  And I can keep asking for games that Jeter's defence lost and nobody will ever be able to answer me.




    If every hit/out/error is compared to similarly hit balls in the past how is it abstract?  It's not abstract just because you haven't seen the data. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

     


    I imagine it's available given that UZR "compares the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player."


    In other words, it remains an abstraction and no specific plays that affected outcomes will be identified.  And I can keep asking for games that Jeter's defence lost and nobody will ever be able to answer me.

     




    If every hit/out/error is compared to similarly hit balls in the past how is it abstract?  It's not abstract just because you haven't seen the data. 

     



    It is if you don't trust the data and can't substantiate it's accuracy. Ultimate zone rating certainly is a useful measure of defensive range. It's not however an all inclusive measure of a players defensive ability....Does it account for the SS ability to properly line up the defense on cuts? Does it account for the SS ability to cover the bag on steals, pick the ball in the dirt and make the tag?

    My greater point is that each position on the field has a bucket list of responsibilities. Specific to the position they have on the field and where the ball is hit or thrown. When evaluating infielders or outfielders affixing a value on each of the components in terms of importance is where the stat heads and the old school guard are at odds...

    Derek Jeter is a very good defensive player that lacks the range of the top SS in the game. Jason Bay was a very good defensive leftfielder in Fenway, but lacked the range to be a great defensive leftfielder in Yankee stadium. By that I mean he always was in the right position when backing up plays to third, hit the cut and caught every ball he could get to given his athleticism.  Move him to right and his arm and range would both be seen as liabilities...however he would still hit the cut and be in proper position when backing up plays and catch every ball that he could get to. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

     well said....


    I imagine it's available given that UZR "compares the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player."


    In other words, it remains an abstraction and no specific plays that affected outcomes will be identified.  And I can keep asking for games that Jeter's defence lost and nobody will ever be able to answer me.

     




    If every hit/out/error is compared to similarly hit balls in the past how is it abstract?  It's not abstract just because you haven't seen the data. 

     

     



    It is if you don't trust the data and can't substantiate it's accuracy. Ultimate zone rating certainly is a useful measure of defensive range. It's not however an all inclusive measure of a players defensive ability....Does it account for the SS ability to properly line up the defense on cuts? Does it account for the SS ability to cover the bag on steals, pick the ball in the dirt and make the tag?

     

    My greater point is that each position on the field has a bucket list of responsibilities. Specific to the position they have on the field and where the ball is hit or thrown. When evaluating infielders or outfielders affixing a value on each of the components in terms of importance is where the stat heads and the old school guard are at odds...

    Derek Jeter is a very good defensive player that lacks the range of the top SS in the game. Jason Bay was a very good defensive leftfielder in Fenway, but lacked the range to be a great defensive leftfielder in Yankee stadium. By that I mean he always was in the right position when backing up plays to third, hit the cut and caught every ball he could get to given his athleticism.  Move him to right and his arm and range would both be seen as liabilities...however he would still hit the cut and be in proper position when backing up plays and catch every ball that he could get to. 




     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Beantowne's comment:



    It is if you don't trust the data and can't substantiate it's accuracy. Ultimate zone rating certainly is a useful measure of defensive range. It's not however an all inclusive measure of a players defensive ability....Does it account for the SS ability to properly line up the defense on cuts? Does it account for the SS ability to cover the bag on steals, pick the ball in the dirt and make the tag?

    My greater point is that each position on the field has a bucket list of responsibilities. Specific to the position they have on the field and where the ball is hit or thrown. When evaluating infielders or outfielders affixing a value on each of the components in terms of importance is where the stat heads and the old school guard are at odds...

    Derek Jeter is a very good defensive player that lacks the range of the top SS in the game. Jason Bay was a very good defensive leftfielder in Fenway, but lacked the range to be a great defensive leftfielder in Yankee stadium. By that I mean he always was in the right position when backing up plays to third, hit the cut and caught every ball he could get to given his athleticism.  Move him to right and his arm and range would both be seen as liabilities...however he would still hit the cut and be in proper position when backing up plays and catch every ball that he could get to. 



    If a person does not understand algebra, does that make algebra abstract?

    I am not arguing that UZR is a perfect tool, I am arguing that it is a tool that should not be dismissed out of hand particularly by someone that does not understand it.  I agree with most of your points!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    1) I have never said it is impossible to win without a great fielding SS. I do think we have a better chance at winning with a .220 Iggy rather than a .280 hobbled Drew.

    2) My philosophy is that a great ranged SS goes a long way to helping a team win, but of course no one player, let alone one portion of a players total package is the difference maker.

    today you said it was important

    others have said it's very important

    Important is not equal to 100% essential.

    3) The fact that the Yankess one one WS in the decade of jeter's statue like defense does not shoot any holes in my philosophy or position.

    U R the one who brought up WS

     

    Wrong. I responded to what was implied by another poster.

     

    and then didn't bring any SS that have won more ws to the table


    I asked you which SS had more wins

    I don't care how many SSs have more or less rings over the last decade than Jeter, so if you care- you do the research.

    4) Range is way more important at the SS position than making 5-10 less errors than most other SSs (and even the amount of his errors are in question due to the Yankee score-keeper giving their hero free passes for years and years).

    bad enough you couldn't agree that jeter puts a hole in the theory

     

    I don't agree with nonsense.

    even worse U couldn't agree with no problem with the he has worse range stuff

    but not buying the worse defensively stuff

     

    Again I don't agree with the nonsense that if Jete makes 5-10 more plays on balls hit right at him than the average SS, it makes up for the fact that he misses 80-120 plays that other SSs make over a season. 

    He remains one of the worst 3 fielding 3 SSs of the last deacde based on his horrible range, and that is just the plain truth.

    but now U R playing the the 'he gets the home town calls' card

    how weak is that

    who doesn't get the home town call

    other than when a sox pitcher whines to the official scorer

    I said it was a tiny fraction of my position. I could be wrong here, but from my observations the yankee scorekeeper was one of the biggest "homers" out of all scorekeepers, but again, even if he was the least homer, it makes no difference on the fact that Jete rots as a fielder.

     
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