Old school stats vs. new school stats

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    no problem with the he has worse range stuff

    but not buying  the worse defensively stuff



    Zac, You are a fair poster IMO, but I think you are missing something on this one.  

    Jeter is sure handed, he comes straight in well and he makes plays in the outfield well.  Even with all those positives he has been a terrible liability in the field for a long time because he allows a large amount of hits b/c of his poor range.

    The same numbers that show he makes way less plays than he should, show that Cano made more than Pedroia last year.

    2012  Range Factor,  Total Chances,  Games:

    Ped          4.59              625               139  

    Cano       4.82              726               154

    Aviles      4.68              591               128

    Jeter      3.76               506              135

    ESPN DWAR had him as the worst fielding player at SS or 3B in MLB.

    [/QUOTE]

    RF/9 is a useful tool, but should never be used in isolation (not saying you were doing this here UK.)

    UZR/150 at 2B in 2012:

    1) Ellis  16.1

    2) Barney  15.1

    3) Pedey   10.8

    6) Cano   9.2

    UZR/150 places Pedey in front of Cano, so one might assume that Cano had more balls hit to his zone than Pedey and that is part of the reason he made more plays. However, if we look closer at the fangraphs numbers, this appears to not be the case...

    RangeR factor (the range portion of UZR):

    1) Infante  11.9

    3) Cano        7.0

    11) Pedey    2.0

    Based on these numbers, I will agree that Cano had much better range than Pedey last year. I'm actually a bit surprised at Pedey's 11th place finish, since by my observations, I'd rank him near the top in range. This is a prime example on why one can not always trust one's own observations as compared to other players one barely sees play.

    In Pedey's defense, UZR is recommended to be used in larger sample sizes of about 3 or more years. If we look at the 3 year RngR avg (2010-2012):

    1) Phillips   20.2

    4) Pedey     17.4

    14) Cano      -6.0

     

    Jeter has a terrible RF/9, UZR/150, RngR factors and just about every other defensive stat or metric, except for Fldg%- the "old traditional stat" of choice.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

     it makes no difference on the fact that Jete rots as a fielder.

     

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++

     

    On the horizontal range issue (mostly to his left, he's a little better to his right, in part due to that plant & jump throw), which is a big (but not total)  factor, yes he does.

    I also expect him to be far worse this yr; he'll be 39, and recovering from a major injury. 

    39 yr olds in general should not be playing 150+ games a year at SS. For example, Yount & Ripken were out of there years before that. Vizquel, Smith & Aparicio did it pretty well (in less games), albeit with compromised range.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

     



    It is if you don't trust the data and can't substantiate it's accuracy. Ultimate zone rating certainly is a useful measure of defensive range. It's not however an all inclusive measure of a players defensive ability....Does it account for the SS ability to properly line up the defense on cuts? Does it account for the SS ability to cover the bag on steals, pick the ball in the dirt and make the tag?

    My greater point is that each position on the field has a bucket list of responsibilities. Specific to the position they have on the field and where the ball is hit or thrown. When evaluating infielders or outfielders affixing a value on each of the components in terms of importance is where the stat heads and the old school guard are at odds...

    Derek Jeter is a very good defensive player that lacks the range of the top SS in the game. Jason Bay was a very good defensive leftfielder in Fenway, but lacked the range to be a great defensive leftfielder in Yankee stadium. By that I mean he always was in the right position when backing up plays to third, hit the cut and caught every ball he could get to given his athleticism.  Move him to right and his arm and range would both be seen as liabilities...however he would still hit the cut and be in proper position when backing up plays and catch every ball that he could get to. 

     



    If a person does not understand algebra, does that make algebra abstract?

     

    I am not arguing that UZR is a perfect tool, I am arguing that it is a tool that should not be dismissed out of hand particularly by someone that does not understand it.  I agree with most of your points!



    My understanding is that Bill James himself refers to his work in the abstract. The literal definition of abstract is difficult to understand. If viewed through the prisims of simplistic statistic UZR is certainly difficult to understand. whether it is or is not difficult to understand, that's not a debate of which i have any interest in partaking in. I'll leave that to those of you that want to debate the functional merits of all of the sabre metrics stats...I'm an old school eye test guy that likes some of new aged stat. That can be if used in concert with time honored good old fashion scouting very beneficial in identifiy key attributes of players and how to best utilize their skills...if a guy has good plate discipline but also has the ability to hit a round ball with a round bat squarely. There's a good chance he'll find himself on the field cause at the end of the day...starting at about the 13 years old, if you hit you play. Defense while valuable it's not something that is valued at any level higher than a players ability to hit.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    How many years has Jeter been playing short? It would take a real stupid person to say that Derek Jeter is a terrible shortstop..

    A terrible fielding SS. He is one of the best offensive SSs of our generation. He has great leadership qualities. 

    What the heck is wrong with people who judge people just because they don't like him or the teams they play for.?

    You are assuming our motives. I have given many a Yankee player his due. (As I just did with Jete's attributes). Want more? Mo is the best closer the game has ever had by leaps and bounds. CC is a great starter- one of the best. Grandy has been one of the best offensive OF'ers since he became a Yankee.

    Would Jeter be a better shortstop if he played 18 years for Sox? 

    No, I'd have been arguing to move him to 2B or 3B about 10 years ago.

    Plus, it's not like our SSs have been even average fielders over the last decade either. If you have followed my posts, I have been even more critical of Lowrie, Renteria, Lugo (post injury), Green, Scoot, Aviles and now Drew as fielding SSs. What team do (did) they play for? Not the Yanks.

    If you are a profesional in any sport and someone who is sitting in front of a computer and trys to tell everyone how terrible that player is ,really needs his head examined. Get a life and stop being jealous......

    I watch every play of every Sox game -- many of them live and then later on replay. I also go to many non-Sox games here in Houston. I watch the Sox play on the road several times a year. 

    I am not jealous about anything. 

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    I was thinking this as well. I can't ever remember him making a "bad"defensive play in the clutch (although I've seen good, i.e, the flip play, one of the greatest plays in BB history, and if he doesn't make that play, they don't go to the WS), but I'm sure this has happened.



    Most of the times, I bet the fans don't even realize when he has made a bad defensive play.  It's not that he actually made a bad play, but more so that he failed to make a play at all.  No error is assigned, and most fans just take it as a hit by the opposition.

    Sometimes his plays look spectacular, but are they really?  A player with poor range can make a routine play seem spectacular, whereas a great defender with good range and agility will make the tough plays look routine.

    Costing a team runs defensively does not just mean making a bad play in the clutch.  If Jeter allows a groundball hit that the average SS would have turned into an out, he is indirectly costing his team runs. 

    Maybe a run scores on that play.  Maybe a run scores two batters later.  Maybe no runs score but the pitcher has to throw 20 extra pitches.  How many repercussions can that have, not just in that game but possibly in the next day's game?  Maybe no runs score that inning but it turns the line up over so that the big bats get an extra AB later in the game and drive in the game winning run.

    It's hard to quantify, because we're not talking necessarily talking about a bad play that results directly in a Yankee loss.  However, Jeter, on average, has cost his team about 1.5 games a season because of his defense.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I was thinking this as well. I can't ever remember him making a "bad"defensive play in the clutch (although I've seen good, i.e, the flip play, one of the greatest plays in BB history, and if he doesn't make that play, they don't go to the WS), but I'm sure this has happened.

     



    Most of the times, I bet the fans don't even realize when he has made a bad defensive play.  It's not that he actually made a bad play, but more so that he failed to make a play at all.  No error is assigned, and most fans just take it as a hit by the opposition.

     

    Sometimes his plays look spectacular, but are they really?  A player with poor range can make a routine play seem spectacular, whereas a great defender with good range and agility will make the tough plays look routine.

    Costing a team runs defensively does not just mean making a bad play in the clutch.  If Jeter allows a groundball hit that the average SS would have turned into an out, he is indirectly costing his team runs. 

    Maybe a run scores on that play.  Maybe a run scores two batters later.  Maybe no runs score but the pitcher has to throw 20 extra pitches.  How many repercussions can that have, not just in that game but possibly in the next day's game?  Maybe no runs score that inning but it turns the line up over so that the big bats get an extra AB later in the game and drive in the game winning run.

    It's hard to quantify, because we're not talking necessarily talking about a bad play that results directly in a Yankee loss.  However, Jeter, on average, has cost his team about 1.5 games a season because of his defense.

     



    Although less obvious, I was including the balls that "get through".

     A sure handed fielder with the speed of Usain Bolt wouldn't have made the "flip" play; or the relay throw in the '99 NYY Red Sox POs.

    While what you say is true to an extent, he partly makes up for with his play around second base, rare mental mistakes, alertness, vertical play, arm, and sure hands. Speaking of sure hands, when the NYY won the WS in 2009, the entire infield made a record setting (lowest #) 15 errors. You don't think that wasn't a factor?

    Regardless, the 15 games a season is beyond ridiculous. For example, for those who care about such stats, Babe Ruth's best WAR wasn't even +15! (It was 13.7)

    Is Derek Jeter, a future 1st ballot HOFer, in the negative, and by defense alone, WORSE than Babe Ruth's best season? 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

     

    It's hard to quantify, because we're not talking necessarily talking about a bad play that results directly in a Yankee loss.  However, Jeter, on average, has cost his team about 1.5 games a season because of his defense.

     



    It's the specific bad plays (not scored as errors) that we need identified.  If a log of these plays was readily available then UZR would be much more transparent for the average fan.

     

    We'll probably get that kind of data eventually.  But it'll be after Jeter retires. :-)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

     

    no problem with the he has worse range stuff

    but not buying  the worse defensively stuff

     



    Zac, You are a fair poster IMO, but I think you are missing something on this one.  

     

    Jeter is sure handed, he comes straight in well and he makes plays in the outfield well.  Even with all those positives he has been a terrible liability in the field for a long time because he allows a large amount of hits b/c of his poor range.

    The same numbers that show he makes way less plays than he should, show that Cano made more than Pedroia last year.

    2012  Range Factor,  Total Chances,  Games:

    Ped          4.59              625               139  

    Cano       4.82              726               154

    Aviles      4.68              591               128

    Jeter      3.76               506              135

    ESPN DWAR had him as the worst fielding player at SS or 3B in MLB.



    RF/9 is a useful tool, but should never be used in isolation (not saying you were doing this here UK.)

    UZR/150 at 2B in 2012:

    1) Ellis  16.1

    2) Barney  15.1

    3) Pedey   10.8

    6) Cano   9.2

    UZR/150 places Pedey in front of Cano, so one might assume that Cano had more balls hit to his zone than Pedey and that is part of the reason he made more plays. However, if we look closer at the fangraphs numbers, this appears to not be the case...

    RangeR factor (the range portion of UZR):

    1) Infante  11.9

    3) Cano        7.0

    11) Pedey    2.0

    Based on these numbers, I will agree that Cano had much better range than Pedey last year. I'm actually a bit surprised at Pedey's 11th place finish, since by my observations, I'd rank him near the top in range. This is a prime example on why one can not always trust one's own observations as compared to other players one barely sees play.

    In Pedey's defense, UZR is recommended to be used in larger sample sizes of about 3 or more years. If we look at the 3 year RngR avg (2010-2012):

    1) Phillips   20.2

    4) Pedey     17.4

    14) Cano      -6.0

     

    Jeter has a terrible RF/9, UZR/150, RngR factors and just about every other defensive stat or metric, except for Fldg%- the "old traditional stat" of choice.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon,

    how good is Jeter turning the double play?

    how good is Jeter at feeding the ball to second...

    how good is Jeter at setting up for the cut, then making a strong an accurate throw..to the base...

    if you evaluate his arm which of the throws from SS can't he make...

    how good is Jeter's ability to drop step and make a play on the shallow fly ball or pop ups.

    how often do you ever see him out of position on double cuts...

    how good is he on charging the ball and making an accurate throw to first On the run...

    how adept is he at receiving the throw and apply the tag at second...

    how often is he out of position based on the scouting reports...

    how often does he get a bad read off the bat.

    all of these are tangibles of playing the SS position. All of them are part of what makes for a good defensive player...range is certainly important and I don't think anyone one would underscore its importance, but it's not IMHO what separates the best from the least...it's merely a statistical measure that is greatly influenced by a players athleticism...Cano is far more athletic then Pedrioa And as such has the physical ability to get to more balls. Coco Crisp is more athletic than Frank Howard..

    My greater point is that what comprises a good defensive player is more then there ability to get to more balls...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

     

    no problem with the he has worse range stuff

    but not buying  the worse defensively stuff

     



    Zac, You are a fair poster IMO, but I think you are missing something on this one.  

     

    Jeter is sure handed, he comes straight in well and he makes plays in the outfield well.  Even with all those positives he has been a terrible liability in the field for a long time because he allows a large amount of hits b/c of his poor range.

    The same numbers that show he makes way less plays than he should, show that Cano made more than Pedroia last year.

    2012  Range Factor,  Total Chances,  Games:

    Ped          4.59              625               139  

    Cano       4.82              726               154

    Aviles      4.68              591               128

    Jeter      3.76               506              135

    ESPN DWAR had him as the worst fielding player at SS or 3B in MLB.

     



    RF/9 is a useful tool, but should never be used in isolation (not saying you were doing this here UK.)

     

    UZR/150 at 2B in 2012:

    1) Ellis  16.1

    2) Barney  15.1

    3) Pedey   10.8

    6) Cano   9.2

    UZR/150 places Pedey in front of Cano, so one might assume that Cano had more balls hit to his zone than Pedey and that is part of the reason he made more plays. However, if we look closer at the fangraphs numbers, this appears to not be the case...

    RangeR factor (the range portion of UZR):

    1) Infante  11.9

    3) Cano        7.0

    11) Pedey    2.0

    Based on these numbers, I will agree that Cano had much better range than Pedey last year. I'm actually a bit surprised at Pedey's 11th place finish, since by my observations, I'd rank him near the top in range. This is a prime example on why one can not always trust one's own observations as compared to other players one barely sees play.

    In Pedey's defense, UZR is recommended to be used in larger sample sizes of about 3 or more years. If we look at the 3 year RngR avg (2010-2012):

    1) Phillips   20.2

    4) Pedey     17.4

    14) Cano      -6.0

     

    Jeter has a terrible RF/9, UZR/150, RngR factors and just about every other defensive stat or metric, except for Fldg%- the "old traditional stat" of choice.

     

     



    Moon,

     

    how good is Jeter turning the double play?

    how good is Jeter at feeding the ball to second...

    how good is Jeter at setting up for the cut, then making a strong an accurate throw..to the base...

    if you evaluate his arm which of the throws from SS can't he make...

    how good is Jeter's ability to drop step and make a play on the shallow fly ball or pop ups.

    how often do you ever see him out of position on double cuts...

    how good is he on charging the ball and making an accurate throw to first On the run...

    how adept is he at receiving the throw and apply the tag at second...

    how often is he out of position based on the scouting reports...

    how often does he get a bad read off the bat.

    all of these are tangibles of playing the SS position. All of them are part of what makes for a good defensive player...range is certainly important and I don't think anyone one would underscore its importance, but it's not IMHO what separates the best from the least...it's merely a statistical measure that is greatly influenced by a players athleticism...Cano is far more athletic then Pedrioa And as such has the physical ability to get to more balls. Coco Crisp is more athletic than Frank Howard..

    My greater point is that what comprises a good defensive player is more then there ability to get to more balls...

    [/QUOTE]

    +1

    You said it better than I could; but, you're good at this; much better than me.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    I was thinking this as well. I can't ever remember him making a "bad" defensive play in the clutch (although I've seen good, i.e, the flip play, one of the greatest plays in BB history, and if he doesn't make that play, they don't go to the WS), but I'm sure this has happened.

    We sometimes don't remember or even recognize plays not made that other great-ranged SSs might have made easily or otherwise.

    Jete rarely botches plays right to him. He does have a great relay arm both in strength and accuracy. He does have great leadership qualities. But, all of these combined, in my opinion, do n.ot come close to outweighing his horrible range.

    Over the last 3 years combined, Jeter has made 1,465 total plays (PO+A) in 3537 innings at SS.

    Others:

    B Ryan  1,777 in 3359  (1871 pro-rated to 3537 innings that Jete had) +395

    A Ram   2,083 in 4151  (1774 vs Jete)  +298

    Andrus 1944 in 3885   (1770)  +294

    Penning 1726 in 3382  (1805) +329

    Peralta  1377 in 2915   (1670) +205

    Y.Esco  1823 in 3551   (1816) +340

    Hardy     1826 in 3430  (1883) +407

    Aybar     1778 in 3631  (1732) +256

    Reyes    1722 in 3669  (1660) +195

    A Esco  1912 in 3918   (1726) +250

    Desmond 1743 in 3665  (1682) +217

    S Castro  1961 in 3875  (1789) +313

    Rollins  1384 in 3315 (1476)  +11

    Jeter        1465 in 3537

    Jeter is in last place out fo qualifying SSs over the last 3 years.

    Here are the play differentials per season:

    B Ryan   +132

    A Ram     +100

    Andrus   +98

    Penning  +110

    Peralta   +68

    Y.Esco   +113

    Hardy      +136

    Aybar      +85

    Reyes     +65

    A Esco    +83

    Desmond +72

    S Castro  +104

    Rollins   +4

    If these SSs played the same innings as jeter over the last 3 years, this is how many more plays they'd have made per season that Jeter. 

    It is not a stretch to say that there are SSs making 80-120 more plays over a season than Jeter. Yes, there are other factors involved, and these numbers aren't absolute numbers uneffected by other influences, but the sample size is large and the UZR Range factor numbers backs up the evidence that Jeter just doesn't get to as many balls hit in his area than other SSs.

     A lot more!

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I was thinking this as well. I can't ever remember him making a "bad" defensive play in the clutch (although I've seen good, i.e, the flip play, one of the greatest plays in BB history, and if he doesn't make that play, they don't go to the WS), but I'm sure this has happened.

    We sometimes don't remember or even recognize plays not made that other great-ranged SSs might have made easily or otherwise.

    Jete rarely botches plays right to him. He does have a great relay arm both in strength and accuracy. He does have great leadership qualities. But, all of these combined, in my opinion, do n.ot come close to outweighing his horrible range.

    Over the last 3 years combined, Jeter has made 1,465 total plays (PO+A) in 3537 innings at SS.

    Others:

    B Ryan  1,777 in 3359  (1871 pro-rated to 3537 innings that Jete had) +395

    A Ram   2,083 in 4151  (1774 vs Jete)  +298

    Andrus 1944 in 3885   (1770)  +294

    Penning 1726 in 3382  (1805) +329

    Peralta  1377 in 2915   (1670) +205

    Y.Esco  1823 in 3551   (1816) +340

    Hardy     1826 in 3430  (1883) +407

    Aybar     1778 in 3631  (1732) +256

    Reyes    1722 in 3669  (1660) +195

    A Esco  1912 in 3918   (1726) +250

    Desmond 1743 in 3665  (1682) +217

    S Castro  1961 in 3875  (1789) +313

    Rollins  1384 in 3315 (1476)  +11

    Jeter        1465 in 3537

    Jeter is in last place out fo qualifying SSs over the last 3 years.

    Here are the play differentials per season:

    B Ryan   +132

    A Ram     +100

    Andrus   +98

    Penning  +110

    Peralta   +68

    Y.Esco   +113

    Hardy      +136

    Aybar      +85

    Reyes     +65

    A Esco    +83

    Desmond +72

    S Castro  +104

    Rollins   +4

    If these SSs played the same innings as jeter over the last 3 years, this is how many more plays they'd have made per season that Jeter. 

    It is not a stretch to say that there are SSs making 80-120 more plays over a season than Jeter. Yes, there are other factors involved, and these numbers aren't absolute numbers uneffected by other influences, but the sample size is large and the UZR Range factor numbers backs up the evidence that Jeter just doesn't get to as many balls hit in his area than other SSs.

     A lot more!

     

     



    did you also factor into the math that Jeter plays in Yankee stadium...where as a rule players try to go the other way, and most teams try to stack thier lineups with left handed bats...which could also account for the amount of chances. Also in terms of the number of balls that he failed to get to how many of them resulted in a run scoring? I'm not debating his range vs others because again if you simply access his athleticism vs say Ryan in Seattle it's a no brainer...Jeter was never and will never be in the class of Pokey Reese. Just not sure that I buy your contention that whips lack of range negates every other of his attributes...that not even s considering what he does with the bat.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    I'm not disputing those #s; I admit they make a compelling case, and there's no doubt his range is statuesque; but I still feel to some degree it's cherry picking, and not considering of and/or giving proper weight to all facets, which includes the ballpark. And in 2009, despite these issues (ARod included), I would have not traded that infield on the defensive side of the ball for any other group.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    Although less obvious, I was including the balls that "get through".

    A sure handed fielder with the speed of Usain Bolt wouldn't have made the "flip" play; or the relay throw in the '99 NYY Red Sox POs.

    While what you say is true to an extent, he partly makes up for with his play around second base, rare mental mistakes, and sure hands. Speaking of sure hands, when the NYY won the WS, the entire infield made a record setting (lowest #) 15 errors. You don't think that wasn't a factor?

    Regardless, the 15 games a season is beyond ridiculous. For example, for those who care about such stats, Babe Ruth's best WAR wasn't even +15! (It was 13.7)

    Is Derek Jeter, a future 1st ballot HOFer, in the negative, and by defense alone, WORSE than Babe Ruth's best season?




    I agree that Jeter partly makes up for his lack of range in other areas. UZR does give him credit for that. For an infielder, UZR has 3 components - double play runs (and I think Yankees fans might be surprised that Jeter rates slightly below average in that category), range runs (which is his obvious weakness), and error runs (in which he scores very well).

    I would also give Jeter credit for the intangibles that he brings to the field, which UZR obviously does not account for.

    And I believe you missed the decimal point on my 1.5 games per season. I agree, 15 games a season for one player would be absurd! 1.5 games is still significant, IMO.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I was thinking this as well. I can't ever remember him making a "bad"defensive play in the clutch (although I've seen good, i.e, the flip play, one of the greatest plays in BB history, and if he doesn't make that play, they don't go to the WS), but I'm sure this has happened.

     



    Most of the times, I bet the fans don't even realize when he has made a bad defensive play.  It's not that he actually made a bad play, but more so that he failed to make a play at all.  No error is assigned, and most fans just take it as a hit by the opposition.

     

    Sometimes his plays look spectacular, but are they really?  A player with poor range can make a routine play seem spectacular, whereas a great defender with good range and agility will make the tough plays look routine.

    Costing a team runs defensively does not just mean making a bad play in the clutch.  If Jeter allows a groundball hit that the average SS would have turned into an out, he is indirectly costing his team runs. 

    Maybe a run scores on that play.  Maybe a run scores two batters later.  Maybe no runs score but the pitcher has to throw 20 extra pitches.  How many repercussions can that have, not just in that game but possibly in the next day's game?  Maybe no runs score that inning but it turns the line up over so that the big bats get an extra AB later in the game and drive in the game winning run.

    It's hard to quantify, because we're not talking necessarily talking about a bad play that results directly in a Yankee loss.  However, Jeter, on average, has cost his team about 1.5 games a season because of his defense.



    Its not just the run that a play not made costs his team: its the failure to make the out. This can lead to multiple runs. It does not take UZR or RF9 to see that Jeter can make the routine plays that are within his limited range but struggles with balls hit in a place good fielding SS make routinely. All you have to do is watch him play.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    Although less obvious, I was including the balls that "get through".

    A sure handed fielder with the speed of Usain Bolt wouldn't have made the "flip" play; or the relay throw in the '99 NYY Red Sox POs.

    While what you say is true to an extent, he partly makes up for with his play around second base, rare mental mistakes, and sure hands. Speaking of sure hands, when the NYY won the WS, the entire infield made a record setting (lowest #) 15 errors. You don't think that wasn't a factor?

    Regardless, the 15 games a season is beyond ridiculous. For example, for those who care about such stats, Babe Ruth's best WAR wasn't even +15! (It was 13.7)

    Is Derek Jeter, a future 1st ballot HOFer, in the negative, and by defense alone, WORSE than Babe Ruth's best season?

     




     

    I agree that Jeter partly makes up for his lack of range in other areas. UZR does give him credit for that. For an infielder, UZR has 3 components - double play runs (and I think Yankees fans might be surprised that Jeter rates slightly below average in that category), range runs (which is his obvious weakness), and error runs (in which he scores very well).

    I would also give Jeter credit for the intangibles that he brings to the field, which UZR obviously does not account for.

    And I believe you missed the decimal point on my 1.5 games per season. I agree, 15 games a season for one player would be absurd! 1.5 games is still significant, IMO.

     

     



    You're right, I did. My bad. And now I'm more apt to agree with you. 1.5 games due to his defensive liability sounds about right.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I was thinking this as well. I can't ever remember him making a "bad" defensive play in the clutch (although I've seen good, i.e, the flip play, one of the greatest plays in BB history, and if he doesn't make that play, they don't go to the WS), but I'm sure this has happened.

    We sometimes don't remember or even recognize plays not made that other great-ranged SSs might have made easily or otherwise.

    Jete rarely botches plays right to him. He does have a great relay arm both in strength and accuracy. He does have great leadership qualities. But, all of these combined, in my opinion, do n.ot come close to outweighing his horrible range.

    Over the last 3 years combined, Jeter has made 1,465 total plays (PO+A) in 3537 innings at SS.

    Others:

    B Ryan  1,777 in 3359  (1871 pro-rated to 3537 innings that Jete had) +395

    A Ram   2,083 in 4151  (1774 vs Jete)  +298

    Andrus 1944 in 3885   (1770)  +294

    Penning 1726 in 3382  (1805) +329

    Peralta  1377 in 2915   (1670) +205

    Y.Esco  1823 in 3551   (1816) +340

    Hardy     1826 in 3430  (1883) +407

    Aybar     1778 in 3631  (1732) +256

    Reyes    1722 in 3669  (1660) +195

    A Esco  1912 in 3918   (1726) +250

    Desmond 1743 in 3665  (1682) +217

    S Castro  1961 in 3875  (1789) +313

    Rollins  1384 in 3315 (1476)  +11

    Jeter        1465 in 3537

    Jeter is in last place out fo qualifying SSs over the last 3 years.

    Here are the play differentials per season:

    B Ryan   +132

    A Ram     +100

    Andrus   +98

    Penning  +110

    Peralta   +68

    Y.Esco   +113

    Hardy      +136

    Aybar      +85

    Reyes     +65

    A Esco    +83

    Desmond +72

    S Castro  +104

    Rollins   +4

    If these SSs played the same innings as jeter over the last 3 years, this is how many more plays they'd have made per season that Jeter. 

    It is not a stretch to say that there are SSs making 80-120 more plays over a season than Jeter. Yes, there are other factors involved, and these numbers aren't absolute numbers uneffected by other influences, but the sample size is large and the UZR Range factor numbers backs up the evidence that Jeter just doesn't get to as many balls hit in his area than other SSs.

     A lot more!

     

     

     



    did you also factor into the math that Jeter plays in Yankee stadium...where as a rule players try to go the other way, and most teams try to stack thier lineups with left handed bats...which could also account for the amount of chances. Also in terms of the number of balls that he failed to get to how many of them resulted in a run scoring? I'm not debating his range vs others because again if you simply access his athleticism vs say Ryan in Seattle it's a no brainer...Jeter was never and will never be in the class of Pokey Reese. Just not sure that I buy your contention that whips lack of range negates every other of his attributes...that not even s considering what he does with the bat.

     




    Yes, Brendan Ryan is fabulous.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's the specific bad plays (not scored as errors) that we need identified.  If a log of these plays was readily available then UZR would be much more transparent for the average fan.

     

    We'll probably get that kind of data eventually.  But it'll be after Jeter retires. :-)



    I'm guessing there will eventually be a log of such data.  I understand what you're saying about not having the specific bad plays identified.  Having read what I've read about UZR, I have confidence in the system. 

     

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    Does anyone recall the Larry David episode (CYE) where he gets outed as a swan killer because of an argument he had with the stone mason over Jeter's defensive prowess? The ending was hilarious.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I was thinking this as well. I can't ever remember him making a "bad"defensive play in the clutch (although I've seen good, i.e, the flip play, one of the greatest plays in BB history, and if he doesn't make that play, they don't go to the WS), but I'm sure this has happened.

     



    Most of the times, I bet the fans don't even realize when he has made a bad defensive play.  It's not that he actually made a bad play, but more so that he failed to make a play at all.  No error is assigned, and most fans just take it as a hit by the opposition.

     

    Sometimes his plays look spectacular, but are they really?  A player with poor range can make a routine play seem spectacular, whereas a great defender with good range and agility will make the tough plays look routine.

    Costing a team runs defensively does not just mean making a bad play in the clutch.  If Jeter allows a groundball hit that the average SS would have turned into an out, he is indirectly costing his team runs. 

    Maybe a run scores on that play.  Maybe a run scores two batters later.  Maybe no runs score but the pitcher has to throw 20 extra pitches.  How many repercussions can that have, not just in that game but possibly in the next day's game?  Maybe no runs score that inning but it turns the line up over so that the big bats get an extra AB later in the game and drive in the game winning run.

    It's hard to quantify, because we're not talking necessarily talking about a bad play that results directly in a Yankee loss.  However, Jeter, on average, has cost his team about 1.5 games a season because of his defense.



    Well said.

    Not helping the opps make outs that other SSs do, keeps the inning going. My guess is that if he allows 80-120 more hits than the best SSs, it make a much bigger difference than 1.5 games (which is maybe how he compares to the avg SS).

    Jeter makes up for much of this with his bat and leadership, but it does not take away from the fact, yes fact, that he is one of the worst fielding SSs of the past decade.

    There are 23 qualifying SSs over the last 10 years.

    Jeter ranks (out of 23):

    T6 in Fldg% (.978)

    2nd ErrR  (+32.6) Proof he makes the plays he gets to.

    21st DPR (-5.0)

    23rd in RngR (-92.5) That's worse than the next bottom 2 combined!!! 

       (S Drew -35.1 and Betancourt -43.6) That closes the case for me. He's not just horrible in range, he is beyond horrible.

    21st in UZR/150 (-7.2) Betancourt is -8.2 and Hanram is -9.1.

    As I said, I would not argue with anyone who says he is only the 3rd worst fielding SS the past decade, but to me, his exponentially horrible range makes him the absolute worst of the decade.

    I'd say the same thing if he was on the Sox.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    Horrible is A. Nunez

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    did you also factor into the math that Jeter plays in Yankee stadium...where as a rule players try to go the other way, and most teams try to stack thier lineups with left handed bats...which could also account for the amount of chances. Also in terms of the number of balls that he failed to get to how many of them resulted in a run scoring? I'm not debating his range vs others because again if you simply access his athleticism vs say Ryan in Seattle it's a no brainer...Jeter was never and will never be in the class of Pokey Reese. 

    2012  NYY  Putouts:

    LF   283     Avg 294  21st in MLB

    RF  303     Avg  312    15th 

    (((  Home and away, and of course YS RF is smaller  ))))

    Just not sure that I buy your contention that whips lack of range negates every other of his attributes...that not even s considering what he does with the bat.

    Who said that?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    did you also factor into the math that Jeter plays in Yankee stadium...where as a rule players try to go the other way, and most teams try to stack thier lineups with left handed bats...which could also account for the amount of chances. Also in terms of the number of balls that he failed to get to how many of them resulted in a run scoring? I'm not debating his range vs others because again if you simply access his athleticism vs say Ryan in Seattle it's a no brainer...Jeter was never and will never be in the class of Pokey Reese. 

    2012  NYY  Putouts:

    LF   283     Avg 294  21st in MLB

    RF  303     Avg  312    15th 

    (((  Home and away, and of course YS RF is smaller  ))))

    Just not sure that I buy your contention that whips lack of range negates every other of his attributes...that not even s considering what he does with the bat.

    Who said that?

    Tom,

    Thanks, for the numbers wonder if you include how many times a ball is caught by the center fielder on the right side of second. If the numbers would be even more skewed to the right at Yankee stadium....

    I believe Moon not once but twice has said as much regarding Jeter's lack of range outweighing his coverall ability to play the position. A position that I disagree with...

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

     

    did you also factor into the math that Jeter plays in Yankee stadium...where as a rule players try to go the other way, and most teams try to stack thier lineups with left handed bats...which could also account for the amount of chances. Also in terms of the number of balls that he failed to get to how many of them resulted in a run scoring? I'm not debating his range vs others because again if you simply access his athleticism vs say Ryan in Seattle it's a no brainer...Jeter was never and will never be in the class of Pokey Reese. 

    Actually, the Yanks have more LH'd starters than most teams, so they probably see more RH'd batters than average. I don't have the numbers in front of me, so I am just speculatiing on this.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    did you also factor into the math that Jeter plays in Yankee stadium...where as a rule players try to go the other way, and most teams try to stack thier lineups with left handed bats...which could also account for the amount of chances. Also in terms of the number of balls that he failed to get to how many of them resulted in a run scoring? I'm not debating his range vs others because again if you simply access his athleticism vs say Ryan in Seattle it's a no brainer...Jeter was never and will never be in the class of Pokey Reese. 

    Actually, the Yanks have more LH'd starters than most teams, so they probably see more RH'd batters than average. I don't have the numbers in front of me, so I am just speculatiing on this.

     



    aside from Sabathia not sure i agree...Petitte Is the only other lefty that's toed the rubber for them and his numbers are better vs righties. Nova, Burnett, Hughes, Kuroda and Colon all are right handed and represent the lion share of games started in the last few years for the Yanks. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: Old school stats vs. new school stats

    Just took a look at some old school stats and contrasted win results to loss results for MLB 2012. Here are some interesting conclusions; batting average matters, .290 in wins, .218 in losses this is a huge gap in performance. Stolen bases matter, 1962 SB in wins, 1267 in losses, also SB% was much better in win games, 69.1% in wins, 58.2% in losses (The Wakefield effect). Walks don't help...in wins, .343 of all PA's resulted in walks, in losses it was .358. Strikeouts or DP's which would you rather have? Each is not good, and each occured as frequently in wins, SO/PA's .181 and GDP .0181.In losses there were not surprisingly, more SO's, .215 and almost as many GDP .0211. What about ROE? Very small effect from the defensive team's shortcomings, ROE/PA in wins 0.010, in losses, 0.088. (The Jeter effect) There was a significant difference in performance in a particular category; IBB, 787 IBB in win games vs just 268 in loss games. Not surprisingly, XBH had a huge impact upon winning games with almost 3200 more XBH's in games that were won. So, putting this on the back of a baseball card, here's what we get; BA, HR's, XBH, SB's and IBB matter. BB's, and ROE don't. It's important to build a team that hits for average, slugs, has speed and adequate defense. Agressiveness helps too, not waiting for a walk, and attempting more stolen bases leads to more wins, than sitting back and going station to station especially via the walk, which apparently is a formula for losing. Source for data was baseballreference.com 2012 batting stats.

     
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