One Idea Among Many

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    One Idea Among Many

    I'd much prefer my earlier plans that improved us for 2013, but made us serious contenders for 2014 and beyond, namely by trading Ellsbury and other FAs to be, hoever, here is an option that makes us stronger 2013 contenders though not favorites by any means:

    Sign: Napoli ($56M/4)

    Sign: Marcum ($27M/3)

    Sign: McCarthy ($22M/3)

    Trade: Aceves & Gomez for Mike Morse

    Trade: Morales, Bogaerts, Cecchini, de la Cruz & Vinicio for J. Upton

     

    2013 Sox:

    C: Salty/Ross (Napoli at NL parks)

    1B: Napoli (Papi at NL parks)/Morse

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Middlebrooks

    SS: Iggy

    IF: Ciriaco

    LF: Morse/Nava or Kalish

    CF: Ellsbury

    RF: J Upton/Sweeney

    DH: Papi

    Line-ups:

    Vs RHPs: Ells/Pedey/Papi/Upton/Napoli/Morse/Midd/Salty/Iggy

    Vs LHPs: Ells/Pedey/Napoli/Upton/Papi/Morse/Midd/Ross/Iggy

     

    Rotation: Buch, Lester, Marcum, McCarthy, Lackey

    LR/Spot start: Tazawa, Mortensen

    Closer/SR: Bailey, Breslow, Miller, Melancon, Bard, Hill/Atchison/others

     

    Again, I like my previous plans better, but thought I'd post this as a framework for discussion for those thinking we can make a strong push in 2013.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd much prefer my earlier plans that improved us for 2013, but made us serious contenders for 2014 and beyond, namely by trading Ellsbury and other FAs to be, hoever, here is an option that makes us stronger 2013 contenders though not favorites by any means:

    Sign: Napoli ($56M/4)

    Sign: Marcum ($27M/3)

    Sign: McCarthy ($22M/3)

    Trade: Aceves & Gomez for Mike Morse

    Trade: Morales, Bogaerts, Cecchini, de la Cruz & Vinicio for J. Upton

     

    2013 Sox:

    C: Salty/Ross (Napoli at NL parks)

    1B: Napoli (Papi at NL parks)/Morse

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Middlebrooks

    SS: Iggy

    IF: Ciriaco

    LF: Morse/Nava or Kalish

    CF: Ellsbury

    RF: J Upton/Sweeney

    DH: Papi

    Line-ups:

    Vs RHPs: Ells/Pedey/Papi/Upton/Napoli/Morse/Midd/Salty/Iggy

    Vs LHPs: Ells/Pedey/Napoli/Upton/Papi/Morse/Midd/Ross/Iggy

     

    Rotation: Buch, Lester, Marcum, McCarthy, Lackey

    LR/Spot start: Tazawa, Mortensen

    Closer/SR: Bailey, Breslow, Miller, Melancon, Bard, Hill/Atchison/others

     

    Again, I like my previous plans better, but thought I'd post this as a framework for discussion for those thinking we can make a strong push in 2013.

    [/QUOTE]


    Poor Felix Doubront, left out in the cold - shown no love by the OP....

    ...also I'm not too keen about selling the farm for an Upton brother.

    Lastly no way just Aceves and Gomez gets you Morse...

    In recap...not a realistic idea...if you have others try them instead!

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to Soxdog67's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd much prefer my earlier plans that improved us for 2013, but made us serious contenders for 2014 and beyond, namely by trading Ellsbury and other FAs to be, hoever, here is an option that makes us stronger 2013 contenders though not favorites by any means:

    Sign: Napoli ($56M/4)

    Sign: Marcum ($27M/3)

    Sign: McCarthy ($22M/3)

    Trade: Aceves & Gomez for Mike Morse

    Trade: Morales, Bogaerts, Cecchini, de la Cruz & Vinicio for J. Upton

     

    2013 Sox:

    C: Salty/Ross (Napoli at NL parks)

    1B: Napoli (Papi at NL parks)/Morse

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Middlebrooks

    SS: Iggy

    IF: Ciriaco

    LF: Morse/Nava or Kalish

    CF: Ellsbury

    RF: J Upton/Sweeney

    DH: Papi

    Line-ups:

    Vs RHPs: Ells/Pedey/Papi/Upton/Napoli/Morse/Midd/Salty/Iggy

    Vs LHPs: Ells/Pedey/Napoli/Upton/Papi/Morse/Midd/Ross/Iggy

     

    Rotation: Buch, Lester, Marcum, McCarthy, Lackey

    LR/Spot start: Tazawa, Mortensen

    Closer/SR: Bailey, Breslow, Miller, Melancon, Bard, Hill/Atchison/others

     

    Again, I like my previous plans better, but thought I'd post this as a framework for discussion for those thinking we can make a strong push in 2013.

    [/QUOTE]


    Poor Felix Doubront, left out in the cold - shown no love by the OP....

    I don't like the 1.45 WHIP, his lack of conditioning in 2011, and his 4.0 BB/9 rate.

    ...also I'm not too keen about selling the farm for an Upton brother.

    Justin is not BJ.

    Lastly no way just Aceves and Gomez gets you Morse...

    Morse has one year of team control left. Aceves has 2 years left. I'd throw in Atchison, Hill or Beato if that tilts the balance.

    In recap...not a realistic idea...if you have others try them instead!

    [/QUOTE]


    I had others, but they included J Up as well.

    Others included trading Tazawa, Lava, T Lin,  and Cecchini for Brett Anderson

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    That's a huge overpay for a guy with a .830 over the past three years, and a career road OPS of .731 and a career K/W of of 694/306.  And it isn't like his career numbers have been buried in the past.  His road OPS last year was .670.  He's got talent, but that type of package should land you almost anyone.

    Just looking at Morse and Upton, over the past 3 years-

    Player A .281/.361/.469/.830

    Player B .296/.345/.516/.861

    You have spare parts for one, and half the farm for the other.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    AZ wants starting MLB ready players, not kids 2-3 years away.

    Id rather keep those guys than trade them for Upton. Sorry Moon, but you overvalue Upton incredibly. His numbers dont warrant a haul like that. Your paying him for "potential". Id rather pay him for what he HAS done, not what he could do. Hes been inconsistent at best.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    That's a huge overpay for a guy with a .830 over the past three years, and a career road OPS of .731 and a career K/W of of 694/306.  And it isn't like his career numbers have been buried in the past.  His road OPS last year was .670.  He's got talent, but that type of package should land you almost anyone.

    Just looking at Morse and Upton, over the past 3 years-

    Player A .281/.361/.469/.830

    Player B .296/.345/.516/.861

    You have spare parts for one, and half the farm for the other.

    [/QUOTE]

    Upton is 24 and has 3 years of control.

    Morse is 31 and has 1 year left.

    You may be right about Morse being worth more, but usually I am accused of offering too much, not too little.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    I'll put moon down as a non-hire for GM of my team.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    AZ wants starting MLB ready players, not kids 2-3 years away.

    Id rather keep those guys than trade them for Upton. Sorry Moon, but you overvalue Upton incredibly. His numbers dont warrant a haul like that. Your paying him for "potential". Id rather pay him for what he HAS done, not what he could do. Hes been inconsistent at best.

    [/QUOTE]

    Teams don't always settle on "what they want", sometimes they take the best offer.

    I think Upton is more than just potential. He has a alot of proven experience already at the ML level. He's already had 2 very good to great years... that's one more than Ellsbury- the guy you want to cling to.

    I think 9 out of 10 GMs would project that Upton will improve over the next 3 years.

    Upton is not my first choice, but he's the best of what is available. If we could get him for less, so be it, but my offer is the top I'd give up.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'll put moon down as a non-hire for GM of my team.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah, if I was the GM last year, we'd have that bum Gio Gonzalez, and no Ellsbury (while his stock was at his highest point).

    We'd be much better off with Nick Johnson or Kotchman or a Loney/Gomes platoon.

     
  10. This post has been removed.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    About as stupid as what Oprah made.

    .... that's entertainment.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    AZ wants starting MLB ready players, not kids 2-3 years away.

    Id rather keep those guys than trade them for Upton. Sorry Moon, but you overvalue Upton incredibly. His numbers dont warrant a haul like that. Your paying him for "potential". Id rather pay him for what he HAS done, not what he could do. Hes been inconsistent at best.

    [/QUOTE]

    Teams don't always settle on "what they want", sometimes they take the best offer.

    I think Upton is more than just potential. He has a alot of proven experience already at the ML level. He's already had 2 very good to great years... that's one more than Ellsbury- the guy you want to cling to.

    I think 9 out of 10 GMs would project that Upton will improve over the next 3 years.

    Upton is not my first choice, but he's the best of what is available. If we could get him for less, so be it, but my offer is the top I'd give up.

    [/QUOTE]


    Thats the point. There not desperate and will NOT take the best offer if its not what they want. The GM and owner have said that.

    I dont want to give up a ton for "The best available" again. Sometimes the best move is the one not made. That fits perfectly here IMO.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Napoli for 4 years is absurd.

    MCarthey and Marcum and nearly 50 million is incompetence.

    You do deserve credit for being specific.

    As for the nonsense that J. Upton is "potential" and only pay for "what he's done".

    In 2011, J. Upton, age 23, had 31 HR and an .898 OPS. His 2012 .355 OBP and 17 HR in the AZ/NL West market is simply a golden opportunity to acquire a player that has a lower stock value.

    J. Upton has averaged over 150 games played in the last 2 seasons. That in and of itself carries value that few OF'ers of can deliver.

    Torii racist Hunter and 26 million is paying for a current part-time player at a full-time player rate. Now that's stupid. 

    [/QUOTE]


    More recently in 2012 he had a line of

    280 .355 .430 .785  

    17HR and 67 RBI  in 150 G

    18 sb 8 cs

    and his mediocre H/A splits where hes a career .731 OPS away from AZ.

    He did improve on his awful .964 fielding with 13 E in 2011 though

    This proves my point of inconsistent. Hes decent one yeae, like 2011, then pedestrian like he was this year. 2009 he was good, 2010 he was just ok again. INCONSISTENT.

    Hes good, Im not saying that. Hes just not as good (so far) as some here claim. he has that potential. But its just that...Potential.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    moon as you know I respect you deeply as a forum member and only like to prod at you once in awhile but you lost me right away with Napoli.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    I seriously doubt we win in 2013 without a big addition (like Upton) or two (like Anderson as well).

    We lose Ellsbury after 2013, and counting on 3-4 prospects becomming the next Lynn, Rice & Burleson is asking for too much. I love many of our kids, but we are not going to seriously compete in the next few years with out ay least 2-3 major acquisitions over the next year or two.

    2014:

    C Ross/Lava

    1B Gomez/Sands/T Shaw

    2B Pedey/Ciriaco

    3B Midd/Cecchini

    SS Bogaerts/Iggy/Marrrero/Vinicio/Lin

    LF Nava/Linares

    CF Bradley/Kalish

    RF Sweeney/Brentz

    DH Papi

    Same staff as 2013 minus Breslow.

    lots of potential here, but several of these kids are not going to meet our wishful expectations.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I seriously doubt we win in 2013 without a big addition (like Upton) or two (like Anderson as well).

    We lose Ellsbury after 2013, and counting on 3-4 prospects becomming the next Lynn, Rice & Burleson is asking for too much. I love many of our kids, but we are not going to seriously compete in the next few years with out ay least 2-3 major acquisitions over the next year or two.

    2014:

    C Ross/Lava

    1B Gomez/Sands/T Shaw

    2B Pedey/Ciriaco

    3B Midd/Cecchini

    SS Bogaerts/Iggy/Marrrero/Vinicio/Lin

    LF Nava/Linares

    CF Bradley/Kalish

    RF Sweeney/Brentz

    DH Papi

    Same staff as 2013 minus Breslow.

    lots of potential here, but several of these kids are not going to meet our wishful expectations.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Lets see who we get this offseason. Im sure some additions will be made.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I seriously doubt we win in 2013 without a big addition (like Upton) or two (like Anderson as well).

    We lose Ellsbury after 2013, and counting on 3-4 prospects becomming the next Lynn, Rice & Burleson is asking for too much. I love many of our kids, but we are not going to seriously compete in the next few years with out ay least 2-3 major acquisitions over the next year or two.

    2014:

    C Ross/Lava

    1B Gomez/Sands/T Shaw

    2B Pedey/Ciriaco

    3B Midd/Cecchini

    SS Bogaerts/Iggy/Marrrero/Vinicio/Lin

    LF Nava/Linares

    CF Bradley/Kalish

    RF Sweeney/Brentz

    DH Papi

    Same staff as 2013 minus Breslow.

    lots of potential here, but several of these kids are not going to meet our wishful expectations.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Lets see who we get this offseason. Im sure some additions will be made.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree, but there are few difference makers available like Justin U.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    I've been working on some sort of pitching equivalency spreadsheet using Fangraphs splits, BABIPA splits,  and another formula I found on the web for approimating earned runs based on hits. 

     

    I know.  I need a hobby.  Thank you, Mrs. Notin.

     

    Anyway, ERAs seem to run high, and I know the change, but I am NOT redoing the baseline work.  I refer to these as NEPSOS (Notin's Equivalency Pitching Stats or Something), because baseball is so devoid ofactual stats.  I need to go and make up my own, apparently.  Really, all i did was normalize actual batted balls over 3 years and make some conversions.  (Fangraphs did thelegwork for me, making it easier.)

     

    ERAs run high, but are still useful for comparison.

     

    Anyway some of the NEPSOS results for FA and available pitchers, using the last 3 seasons as data:

     

    Felix Hernandez: 3.63ERA 1.28WHIP (Not available, but used as a control that made me know I was wrong about a few things.)

    Brandon McCarthy: 3.81ERA 1.28WHIP (Based on 2 years, not 3)

    Brett Anderson 3.98ERA 1.32WHIP (Oakland pitchers my top two? I need a ballpark factor!)

    Francisco Liriano 4.24ERA 1.47WHIP (SURPRISE!!!)

    Dan Haren 4.29ERA 1.32 WHIP

    Shaun Marcum 4.47ERA 1.39WHIP

    Edwin Jackson 4.61ERA 1.47WHIP

    Carlos Zambrano 5.02ERA 1.64WHIP

    Carlos Villanueva 5.22ERA 1.54WHIP

    Rick Porcello 5.25ERA 1.57WHIP

    Jeremy Guthrie 5.28ERA 1.54WHIP

     

    Based on this, Liriano might be considered a legitimate target (barring a data error on my part).  I also like McCarthy and Anderson, but some of their help is probably ballpark related.

     

     

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    That's a huge overpay for a guy with a .830 over the past three years, and a career road OPS of .731 and a career K/W of of 694/306.  And it isn't like his career numbers have been buried in the past.  His road OPS last year was .670.  He's got talent, but that type of package should land you almost anyone.

    Just looking at Morse and Upton, over the past 3 years-

    Player A .281/.361/.469/.830

    Player B .296/.345/.516/.861

    You have spare parts for one, and half the farm for the other.

    [/QUOTE]

    And also, one year of Morse versus 3 prime years of Upton.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    dont want anything to do with mccarthy or marcum. Both are injury prone. Sox need reliable starters. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

     


    Poor Felix Doubront, left out in the cold - shown no love by the OP....

    I don't like the 1.45 WHIP, his lack of conditioning in 2011, and his 4.0 BB/9 rate.

    What was your expectation for 24 yr old rookie (as fulltime SP), a #4 starting pitcher who throws in the AL East division moon?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I've been working on some sort of pitching equivalency spreadsheet using Fangraphs splits, BABIPA splits,  and another formula I found on the web for approimating earned runs based on hits. 

     

    I know.  I need a hobby.  Thank you, Mrs. Notin.

     

    Anyway, ERAs seem to run high, and I know the change, but I am NOT redoing the baseline work.  I refer to these as NEPSOS (Notin's Equivalency Pitching Stats or Something), because baseball is so devoid ofactual stats.  I need to go and make up my own, apparently.  Really, all i did was normalize actual batted balls over 3 years and make some conversions.  (Fangraphs did thelegwork for me, making it easier.)

     

    ERAs run high, but are still useful for comparison.

     

    Anyway some of the NEPSOS results for FA and available pitchers, using the last 3 seasons as data:

     

    Felix Hernandez: 3.63ERA 1.28WHIP (Not available, but used as a control that made me know I was wrong about a few things.)

    Brandon McCarthy: 3.81ERA 1.28WHIP (Based on 2 years, not 3)

    Brett Anderson 3.98ERA 1.32WHIP (Oakland pitchers my top two? I need a ballpark factor!)

    Francisco Liriano 4.24ERA 1.47WHIP (SURPRISE!!!)

    Dan Haren 4.29ERA 1.32 WHIP

    Shaun Marcum 4.47ERA 1.39WHIP

    Edwin Jackson 4.61ERA 1.47WHIP

    Carlos Zambrano 5.02ERA 1.64WHIP

    Carlos Villanueva 5.22ERA 1.54WHIP

    Rick Porcello 5.25ERA 1.57WHIP

    Jeremy Guthrie 5.28ERA 1.54WHIP

     

    Based on this, Liriano might be considered a legitimate target (barring a data error on my part).  I also like McCarthy and Anderson, but some of their help is probably ballpark related.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    They both did fine on the road.

     

    McCarthy  (Oak)

    '12: 3.66  1.316

    '11: 3.99  1.156

    (Maybe about 3.80  1.20 career with Oak on the road)

     

    Anderson (Oak)

    Career: 3.59  1.294

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

     

    I want McCarthy, Marcum, and Anderson pitching for the Red Sox in 2013.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    They both did, and I particularly like Anderson. However, even road numbers in the AL West are somewhat obscured by the fact that Seattle and Anaheim are fairly cavernous, too.

     

    McCarthy gets a ton of ground balls, so he ishelped less. Anderson has been getting better in this regard, but also saw an ugly spike in his LD rate this year.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: One Idea Among Many

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    They both did, and I particularly like Anderson. However, even road numbers in the AL West are somewhat obscured by the fact that Seattle and Anaheim are fairly cavernous, too.

     

    McCarthy gets a ton of ground balls, so he ishelped less. Anderson has been getting better in this regard, but also saw an ugly spike in his LD rate this year.

    [/QUOTE]

    Some small sample sizes here, but...

     

    McCarthy:

    Career in...

    SEA  6.17

    ANA  6.10

    BOS 3.12

     

    Anderson:

    Career in...

    SEA  1.00

    ANA  4.33

    BOS  4.09

     

     

Share