Re: One View of 2013 and Beyond
posted at 10/27/2012 1:53 AM EDT
In response to southpaw777's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
One possible plan...
Trade: Ellsbury, Aceves, Cecchini, and Coyle
For: Dan Uggla ($39.6M/3), Tommy Hanson (3 arb years left), and $2M in '13, $3.6M in '14 & $5M in '15.
Salary dump in Uggla, and the Braves get their future 3Bman.
We get 3 years of a promising young starter.
Trade: Morales, Brentz, de la Rosa, Britton, & Pimental
For: Justin Upton ($38.5M/3)
A. Sanchez $45M/4
B. McCarthy $25M/3
A. Pagan $10M/2
4 pitchers and one of our top 2 OF prospects for Upton???? Wow...Just....WOWzers
I just cant understand why all the love for an inconsistent OF'er with the potential to be great...And for only 3 years. If I give up a haul like that, I want more than 3 years of control and more than one underachieving player...But, thats just me....
I understand that Britton and Pimentel are mediocre prospects, but Rubby, Brentz and Morales, to me, are better off with the Sox than Upton...
I like the Pagan move though if Ells goes...I also like Sanchez if the $$ is right...
While I find the Upton proposal a bit light, I think characterizing Upton as âinconsistentâ is well beyond unfair. This season his numbers were hampered by some injuries early on, but considering he has been posting very similar and occasionally better OPS numbers than Brentz at the same ages, except doing it at the MLB level, Upton is establishing himself as an elite hitter. And Upton is only one year older. I think we can all count the number of consistently good MLB hitters through age 24 on our prehensile tails.
Would you consider Matt Kemp an inconsistent hitter? His numbers have fluctuated as much as Uptonâs over the last 3 years, and at the same age as Upton, his career OPS was .826, basically the same as Uptonâs .832. Look at Kemp. That is the player Upton should easily become over the next few seasons. Would you deal that package for Kemp, ignoring his extremely heavy contract? And in his case, you are trading for the past. With Upton, that is the future.
If Upton could be had for Bradley and Webster, I make the deal twice today and again tomorrow. Bradley to date has been the slightly lesser, healthier version of Kalish. Webster is a very talented prospect, but his stamina worries me to the point where he might be a relief pitcher. Upton is unlikely to be the new Manny, but he definitely has MVP potential. Two unknown commodities for a future MVP? Again, twice today and again tomorrow.
I look at Brentz and see the upside of a 6-spot hitter. He wonât be a bad player, but he will probably not be an irreplaceable one, either. His upside is probably Matt Joyce. That makes him nice to have, but Upton is a player you build a team around. Brentz is the kind of player you use to build around Upton.
The Ellsbury / Hanson / Uggla / Cecchini deal would be a no-brainer for Atlanta, and would also be a good deal for Boston, assuming they could find a place for Uggla to play. Some hard-hitting second baseman with fielding issues have been transplanted to LF, but not without issues. Think Soriano and Knoblauch. The Sox might also use Uggla at 1B. He certainly has infield experience, and the position is the easiest to field. The drawbacks are, while most MLB first baseman are players who were moved their typically because they could hit and not field, they still fit into a prototype of being either tall, or left-handed, or both, as these attributes are defensive pluses for the position. Uggla is short and right-handed. This does not mean he will fail, but they do put him at a disadvantage. But given that Uggla certainly has right-handed Fenway power, and typically can keep his OBP about 100 points above his average, there are plenty of reasons to want him at Fenway.
Make these two deals adding Upton, Uggla and Hanson. Put Sands in LF. (Why not?) Build a RF situation from Ross and Sweeney and move Kalish to CF.
And play ball!