Opening Day SS

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Moon, I've seen your work on this before and it seems a reasonable argument. A question occurs however:  is that potential 70-100 hits saved based on getting 70-100 more chances i.e. hits he turns into outs?  If so, isn't it possible that some of the SS' increased chances are taken away from other fielders?  Short fly balls the LF could have caught, IF flies that are always deferred to his superior glove, ground balls his range takes away from other fielder, etc?

    Yes, I base the 70-100 number on more chances than Aviles would have gotten due to way less range and slower reflexes.

    1) I seriously doubt Iggy will be taking any ground ball outs away from Youk or Pedey.
    2) Perhaps he may take a handful of "outs" away on IF pop ups.
    3) I doubt he takes any "outs" away from the OF'ers since they will call off the IF'er when they have the better chance. I suppose a couple outs here.
     
    At most, he may take about 10 outs from other fielders over 150 games. Even adjusting my range accordingly to 60-90 plays, it's pretty significant. 

    I ask you and others interested in my theory to watch closely when Iggy is at the SS position and try to keep track of how many plays he makes per game that you are certain Aviles would not have made. I think you might find that the number might be closer to one per game (150 over a season) than 2 every 3 games (100 per 150 games). From what I have seen so far in ST, I am thinking my numbers might be too low, but I am basing this on the projection that Aviles is slightly better in range than Scutaro was for his 2 years here. I'm basing my numbers on 2 projections, so there is plenty of room for adjustments.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    If a good defensive SS can save 70-100 hits a year, then no non-defensive SS would ever start.  Janish hit .214.  If we gave him credit for 100 hits saved over whomever, then is it the equivalent of him hitting .380 (100/600+.214).  In this case, you would choose SS based purely on defense, with almost no regard to offense.

    False. Several good fielding SSs can hit as well.

    I was basing my 70-100 saved hits on the differential between one of the best ranged SSs (perhaps Iggy) and one of the worst ranged SSs (Scutaro and perhaps Aviles). I could be wrong about Aviles having significantly below average range. I have not seen him play enough to know for sure.

    In short, my 70-100 range is from top to bottom, not top to average.

    The facts back me up. Year after year, the best ranged SSs make about 100 more plays than the worst ranged SSs.

    If you have a great hitting SS who is an average defensive SS, then the plays saved differential between him and a great ranged SS might only be 30-45. Also, remember a hit saved will almost always be a single for the SS position. A great offensive SS can make up for a few missed plays with a timely Hr or 2B. He may also walk 50-80 more times than the weak hitting/great fielding SS.

    If Iggy can indeed save 100 singles by the opponents (over Aviles), it could be viewed as adding 100 singles to his offense, thereby turning his .180 BA to .380 (over 500 ABs). 

    Imagine the opponents making 100 more outs over 150 games. This shortens many innings, allows starters to go deeper, the pen to be less taxed, pitcher's confidnece levels to rise, and momentum to swing in our favor.

    (I know the same could be said about a key 2B by Aviles at a time Iggy would have popped out.)

    If Iggy is only 50 plays better than Aviles, then his BA might be adjusted from .180 to .280, which is about the same as what we might expect from Aviles, but Aviles will have more HRs and 2Bs, so one could argue Mike is the better choice, however, I am assuming Iggy might hit .180. If he hits .220 and saves 50 hits, he might still be the better choice.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    He's looked good on both ends so far, but Iglesias starting means reducing Aviles's playing time, and ultimately cutting McDonald, both of whom have looked even better (McDonald looks like Babe Ruth after 12 ABs).  As one of the few potential roster spots with minor-league options left, I think it's very unlikely you see him start on the big league club.  

    That said, I'm more optimistic about him than I was a month ago, but still cautiously so - he had a great Spring a year ago, too.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]He's looked good on both ends so far, but Iglesias starting means reducing Aviles's playing time, and ultimately cutting McDonald, both of whom have looked even better (McDonald looks like Babe Ruth after 12 ABs).  As one of the few potential roster spots with minor-league options left, I think it's very unlikely you see him start on the big league club.   That said, I'm more optimistic about him than I was a month ago, but still cautiously so - he had a great Spring a year ago, too.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    If Iggy becomes the FT starter, a decision won't need to be made on DMac until after CC is back. I think we will see Aviles in LF vs LHPs until CC returns, but DMac is very good vs lefties as well. Since Punto can also play OF in a pinch, it seems like DMac will be the odd man out, but if Iggy really does become the FT SS, Punto seems like the guy who will hardly ever play, since Aviles will become the utility IF'er. I'm not sure Punto can be traded easily, but he is making $3M/2, so that's a bit too much to cut loose.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jb12bb. Show jb12bb's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    I dont think the groin injury is anything major so he should be back in a couple days.  He has hit well this spring, and Avilas and Punton can man the super utility roles.  D-mac has hit well and should see the backup OF spot. 

    Iglesias can sit in the nine hole and play gold glove defense I think it will be better then shotty defense and a little extra punch of offense white punto and Avilas can provide.

    It also seems he has a good repour with Pedroia and the other infielders.  The pitchers love his up the middle defense.

    I think if tito was still running the club Iggy would be in the minors to start but Bobby V is a different type of manager and is looking outside the box on numerous roster spots.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    D-mac has hit well and should see the backup OF spot.  

    When CC comes back, DMac would be the 5th OF'er and probably wouldn't play much at all, unless there was an injury.

    1) Ells
    2) CC
    3) Ross
    4) Sweeney
    5) DMac

    If Iggys is the FT SS, and since Aviles and Punto can play OF and IF, they may get the nod over DMac when CC comes back.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]D-mac has hit well and should see the backup OF spot.   When CC comes back, DMac would be the 5th OF'er and probably wouldn't play much at all, unless there was an injury. 1) Ells 2) CC 3) Ross 4) Sweeney 5) DMac If Iggys is the FT SS, and since Aviles and Punto can play OF and IF, they may get the nod over DMac when CC comes back.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Kalish should also be in the mix at some point so I doubt DMac gets much playing time unless Sweeney doesn't cut it, or we see injuries as stated.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    i told you guys when they traded scut that this meant Iggy was the starting SS - there is no need for him to be in AAA to get his hitting down - he has to do that at the ML level - his glove is ready for prime time now
    I cant believe folks here actually thought the sox are going to turn over the most important field position to a journeyman utility player...once again...
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : If Iggy becomes the FT starter, a decision won't need to be made on DMac until after CC is back. I think we will see Aviles in LF vs LHPs until CC returns, but DMac is very good vs lefties as well. Since Punto can also play OF in a pinch, it seems like DMac will be the odd man out, but if Iggy really does become the FT SS, Punto seems like the guy who will hardly ever play, since Aviles will become the utility IF'er. I'm not sure Punto can be traded easily, but he is making $3M/2, so that's a bit too much to cut loose.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    These are tough decisions that can be delayed simply by starting Iglesias at AAA.  DMac has a good bat vs lefties, but can only play sub-par defense in the OF, and has proven to be a poor base runner as well.    Punto has no bat, but  can play any IF or OF position, and be above average in the IF positions.  We have a terrific offense, but we have some very slow runners in the heart of the order.  Maybe Punto is more valuable simply because we are more likely to need a pinch-runner late in games than a pinch hitter.  But if we have a weakness offensively, it's against tough lefties.  The tie-breaker, in my mind, is that Punto was signed because Cherington did not feel Iglesias was ready.  To cut him loose would not only be embarrassing, but would mean a complete 180 on that position based on a spring training performance.  I don't see that happening.



     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : These are tough decisions that can be delayed simply by starting Iglesias at AAA.  DMac has a good bat vs lefties, but can only play sub-par defense in the OF, and has proven to be a poor base runner as well.    Punto has no bat, but  can play any IF or OF position, and be above average in the IF positions.  We have a terrific offense, but we have some very slow runners in the heart of the order.  Maybe Punto is more valuable simply because we are more likely to need a pinch-runner late in games than a pinch hitter.  But if we have a weakness offensively, it's against tough lefties.  The tie-breaker, in my mind, is that Punto was signed because Cherington did not feel Iglesias was ready.  To cut him loose would not only be embarrassing, but would mean a complete 180 on that position based on a spring training performance.  I don't see that happening. Posted by slomag[/QUOTE] Nice post...don't see Punto going anywhere, regardless of who wins starting SS job. All teams carry a backup middle infielder AND a backup up corner infielder. With Ortiz and Youk able to play first and Punto and Aviles having the flexibility to play the other 3 infield slots, as well as a corner outfield spot in a pinch, I love the flexibility of this bench...
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]i told you guys when they traded scut that this meant Iggy was the starting SS - there is no need for him to be in AAA to get his hitting down - he has to do that at the ML level - his glove is ready for prime time now I cant believe folks here actually thought the sox are going to turn over the most important field position to a journeyman utility player...once again...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    Trading Scuter probably had little to do with Iggy starting this season.  Too many people are trying to rush the 22 year old into the starting lineup.

    Iggy could bring a whole new dimension to our team like Jacoby did, but I can wait a bit longer if it helps him mature.  I think Iggy could have a very long and successful career.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : Trading Scuter probably had little to do with Iggy starting this season.  Too many people are trying to rush the 22 year old into the starting lineup. Iggy could bring a whole new dimension to our team like Jacoby did, but I can wait a bit longer if it helps him mature.  I think Iggy could have a very long and successful career. Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE] Valentine said you can tell when a kid is ready by the way he carries himself around the clubhouse and Cafardo wrote in his article today that Iglesias is carrying himself like he's ready...I know this is a board that is "stat heavy," but Im starting to think they might go with him to start the season...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": Valentine said you can tell when a kid is ready by the way he carries himself around the clubhouse and Cafardo wrote in his article today that Iglesias is carrying himself like he's ready...I know this is a board that is "stat heavy," but Im starting to think they might go with him to start the season...
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    I would love to see it jasko but the way Jose carries himself in the dugout needs to stretch on to the field and at the plate.  Lavarnway also has what Bobby is talking about but that didn't stop us from bringing in Kelly for a year.  Lav could end up our DH but either way Iggy still needs to prove himself offensively before staying in our lineup.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : I would love to see it jasko but the way Jose carries himself in the dugout needs to stretch on to the field and at the plate.  Lavarnway also has what Bobby is talking about but that didn't stop us from bringing in Kelly for a year.  Lav could end up our DH but either way Iggy still needs to prove himself offensively before staying in our lineup. Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE] The reason we brought in Shoppach was to be the back up catcher, it had nothing to do with Lavarnay. He either beats out Salty or starts in Pawtucket. That was never a question. I agree that Lavarnway has "it" as well, but he needs to catch every day, simply to see if he can. We have Ortiz, so he's not going to DH this year anyway. Valentine will go with his gut on Iglesias, you can manipulate the stats any way you want, it'll come down to whether or not he "feels" he's ready based his plate appearances, confidence, demeanor, etc...Aviles has showed good range so far this spring and has looked good overall, so it may come down to the last day or two...
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    These are tough decisions that can be delayed simply by starting Iglesias at AAA.  DMac has a good bat vs lefties, but can only play sub-par defense in the OF, and has proven to be a poor base runner as well.  

    He seems to be decent in LF, but I doubt Bobby will sit CC vs lefties, so once CC is healthy, when will DMac play?

      Punto has no bat, but  can play any IF or OF position, and be above average in the IF positions.  We have a terrific offense, but we have some very slow runners in the heart of the order.  Maybe Punto is more valuable simply because we are more likely to need a pinch-runner late in games than a pinch hitter.  But if we have a weakness offensively, it's against tough lefties.  The tie-breaker, in my mind, is that Punto was signed because Cherington did not feel Iglesias was ready.  To cut him loose would not only be embarrassing, but would mean a complete 180 on that position based on a spring training performance.  I don't see that happening.

    He could be traded to team that has an IF injury this spring.... and save face.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Nice post...don't see Punto going anywhere, regardless of who wins starting SS job. All teams carry a backup middle infielder AND a backup up corner infielder. With Ortiz and Youk able to play first and Punto and Aviles having the flexibility to play the other 3 infield slots, as well as a corner outfield spot in a pinch, I love the flexibility of this bench...

    Once CC comes back, there's no room for everyone of Iggy is the SS:

    1) Ells
    2) Pedey
    3) AGon
    4) Youk
    5) Papi
    6) CC
    7) Salty
    8) Ross
    9) Iggy
    10) Aviles
    11) Sweeney
    12) Shopp (or Lava)
    13) Punto or DMac (or Kalish)
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    The reason we brought in Shoppach was to be the back up catcher, it had nothing to do with Lavarnay. He either beats out Salty or starts in Pawtucket. That was never a question.

    One problem is that Lava and Shopp both hit lefties better. 

    A Salty/Shopp or Lava/Salty combo works best.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]These are tough decisions that can be delayed simply by starting Iglesias at AAA.  DMac has a good bat vs lefties, but can only play sub-par defense in the OF, and has proven to be a poor base runner as well.   He seems to be decent in LF, but I doubt Bobby will sit CC vs lefties, so once CC is healthy, when will DMac play?   Punto has no bat, but  can play any IF or OF position, and be above average in the IF positions.  We have a terrific offense, but we have some very slow runners in the heart of the order.  Maybe Punto is more valuable simply because we are more likely to need a pinch-runner late in games than a pinch hitter.  But if we have a weakness offensively, it's against tough lefties.  The tie-breaker, in my mind, is that Punto was signed because Cherington did not feel Iglesias was ready.  To cut him loose would not only be embarrassing, but would mean a complete 180 on that position based on a spring training performance.  I don't see that happening. He could be traded to team that has an IF injury this spring.... and save face. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Moon, all teams carry a back up middle infielder and a back up corner infielder. Why would they ever trade Punto?! He was signed as a free agent, so you can't just trade him anyway. He has nothing to do with Iglesias making the team. Don't get this at all...
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]The reason we brought in Shoppach was to be the back up catcher, it had nothing to do with Lavarnay. He either beats out Salty or starts in Pawtucket. That was never a question. One problem is that Lava and Shopp both hit lefties better.  A Salty/Shopp or Lava/Salty combo works best. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Not really a problem...Lava never really factored in starting the year in Boston, despite wishful thinking by offensive minded fans...Shoppach/Salty is and was the plan from the beginning...
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]Nice post...don't see Punto going anywhere, regardless of who wins starting SS job. All teams carry a backup middle infielder AND a backup up corner infielder. With Ortiz and Youk able to play first and Punto and Aviles having the flexibility to play the other 3 infield slots, as well as a corner outfield spot in a pinch, I love the flexibility of this bench... Once CC comes back, there's no room for everyone of Iggy is the SS: 1) Ells 2) Pedey 3) AGon 4) Youk 5) Papi 6) CC 7) Salty 8) Ross 9) Iggy 10) Aviles 11) Sweeney 12) Shopp (or Lava) 13) Punto or DMac (or Kalish) Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Lava and Kalish aren't starting the season in Boston and McDonald is odd guy out when CC comes back. Is this really a question?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]The reason we brought in Shoppach was to be the back up catcher, it had nothing to do with Lavarnay. He either beats out Salty or starts in Pawtucket. That was never a question. One problem is that Lava and Shopp both hit lefties better.  A Salty/Shopp or Lava/Salty combo works best.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If I was a betting man moon, my guess is on a Salty/Lav combination by the start of next season at the very latest.  If Lav has a good offensive season, while Salty and Kelly prove to be more than an adequate duo it could be Papi the kid replaces but I would love to see him at catcher.
     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : If I was a betting man moon, my guess is on a Salty/Lav combination by the start of next season at the very latest.  If Lav has a good offensive season, while Salty and Kelly prove to be more than an adequate duo it could be Papi the kid replaces but I would love to see him at catcher.
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]

    Lav's bat is Major League ready right now, but he needs to catch every day at this point.  I'm not sure they would ever go with a strict platoon with these two guys, especially when they both have the "potential" to be above average  starters. The one possibility is Lavarnway is righty DH in '13, while catching a few games, but I dont think that will fly with him.  "These things tend to work themselves out" is an age old cliche, but I think it fits here. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    i think at this point the sox would be crazy not to anoint jose iglesias the starting shortstop. he is great defensively (which is the most important thing for a shortstop) and is showing that he can hit. Look at our other options, punto well he is not really an option he can field but cant hit at all and was clearly brough in to be a back up. Aviles who is the only other option can hit somewhat but not enough to outweigh the fact that he struggles defensively. Plus givin his positional flexibility, he seems much better suited for a utility role. within iglesias at short, the sox would have one of it not the best defensive infield in baseball. and for a team that is not loaded with pitching talent, that can go a long way.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Don't see why the Sox can't break camp with him as the SS...Sox have enough hitting to carry him as long as it takes to see if he is MLB ready.  Pitchers will love this guy!!
     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]Don't see why the Sox can't break camp with him as the SS...Sox have enough hitting to carry him as long as it takes to see if he is MLB ready.  Pitchers will love this guy!! Posted by traven[/QUOTE] Exactly, Traven...great defense can be contagious and it certainly breeds confidence with pitchers. The Orioles had four 20 game winners the year they had arguably the best defensive team ever...
     

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