Opening Day SS

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Moon, all teams carry a back up middle infielder and a back up corner infielder. Why would they ever trade Punto?! He was signed as a free agent, so you can't just trade him anyway. He has nothing to do with Iglesias making the team. Don't get this at all...

    If Iggy doesn't make the 25 man roster we have Aviles starting at SS, Punto as the Utility IF'er who can play SS, 2B & 3B. We'd have Papi and Salty who can play 1B, and Youk as well.

    If Iggy makes the 25 man roster, we'd have Aviles as the utility IF'er who can play SS, 2B, and 3B. We'd have Papi and Salty who can play 1B, and Youk as well.

    I'm not saying we will or should trade Punto if Iggy get's the starting job, but your argument that we need Punto if Iggy makes the big club is just not making sense to me. It's very simple to me. Just because a player was recently signed as a FA doesn't mean they can't be traded if the situation changes. I seriously doubt it happens, but if Iggy starts, Punto will barely play at all.

    Last year, we had Jed Lowrie as our utility IF'er. We did not have 2 utility IF'ers. 

    There will be a choice to be made:
    1) DL someone and prolong the choice.
    2) Trade Punto.
    3) Trade or cut DMac.

    If everyone is healthy, we can't have Iggy as our FT SS and keep DMac and Punto on the active 25 man roster at the same time.

    If I had to chose right now, I'd keep Punto, so I'm not in disagreement with you. Punto can play OF as can Aviles, so DMac does not give us as much flexibility as Punto. One reason I mentioned possibly trading Punto is that he is more tradeable than DMac, could get us something in return, and we'd save $3M over 2 years. Another reason I like DMac, is that I'd have him start in LF vs LHPs and Ross in RF vs LHPs, but I know this isn't going to happen. Finally, if CC does not recover, we may regret letting DMac go. 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": Not really a problem...Lava never really factored in starting the year in Boston, despite wishful thinking by offensive minded fans...Shoppach/Salty is and was the plan from the beginning...
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    I agree and have never said otherwise. I was merely stating my personal opinion that we'd be better off with Lava/Salty than Salty/Shopp or Lava/Shopp. (And Salty/Shopp is a better strick platoon than Salty/Lava)

    Lava's only realistic shot at making the 25 man roster was if Papi walked or someone got hurt.

    Ben's not giving up on Salty, and Shoppach hits lefties very well, so they are a good tandem. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": Lava and Kalish aren't starting the season in Boston and McDonald is odd guy out when CC comes back. Is this really a question?
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    Yes, I think there is.

    Although I agree that Punto will not be traded, even if Iggy starts at SS, jettisoning DMac is not an easy choice. Just because CC comes off the DL does not mean we are sure he can play well. Sweeney & Ross are still somewhat question marks, but they are clearly better than DMac. 

    My point was that if Iggy is the starting SS and Aviles is the utility IF'er, Punto's role is lessened about as much as having a 5th OF'er in DMac will be when CC returns. As bad as our corner OF production was last year, I think an argument could be made to trade Punto (or give him a phantom DL assignment) and keep DMac. DMac hits LHPs very well, and plays LF fairly.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    I forgot to add, that one big reason to keep Punto over DMac, is to allow more PH'ing options for Iggy late in the game.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]I forgot to add, that one big reason to keep Punto over DMac, is to allow more PH'ing options for Iggy late in the game. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Moon, it sounds like we agree on all of this. My point with Punto is I just didn't see a scenario where he goes. They won't carry 3 catchers and carrying 5 outfielders makes no sense when you consider Aviles could be the 5th outfielder and not kill them. They need to carry a position player in that spot, so, like you said, Punto makes more sense than McDonald for lots of reasons...
     
  6. This post has been removed.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : I don't like to defend Bill but he was one of those posters you are talking about
    Posted by thepeskypole6[/QUOTE]
    "Other posters" means in addition to Bill, not except Bill. He is taking credit for being in on the Iglesias sweepstakes before anyone else saw the need for a defensive upgrade at SS, namely Iglesias. That is just plain silly -- going to the crow's nest to broadcast what has long been obvious to many people.  

     
  8. This post has been removed.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : Once again I hate to defend Bill but he is taking credit for being one of the ones who might be able to say "I told you so"  I didnt read anywhere where he acted like he was the only one. 
    Posted by thepeskypole6[/QUOTE]
    What's the big deal about "I told you so" when so many people could have said "I told you so"? If "I was ahead of the curve" doesn't mean "I was alone or virtually alone," what does it mean?

     
  10. This post has been removed.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    I wanted Iggy to be our FT starter last April. I'm not sure if I was the first, but I never remember BILL talking about Iggy until this winter during his purge almost the whole old guard mantra.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]If a good defensive SS can save 70-100 hits a year, then no non-defensive SS would ever start.  Janish hit .214.  If we gave him credit for 100 hits saved over whomever, then is it the equivalent of him hitting .380 (100/600+.214).  In this case, you would choose SS based purely on defense, with almost no regard to offense. False. Several good fielding SSs can hit as well. I was basing my 70-100 saved hits on the differential between one of the best ranged SSs (perhaps Iggy) and one of the worst ranged SSs (Scutaro and perhaps Aviles). I could be wrong about Aviles having significantly below average range. I have not seen him play enough to know for sure. In short, my 70-100 range is from top to bottom, not top to average. The facts back me up. Year after year, the best ranged SSs make about 100 more plays than the worst ranged SSs. If you have a great hitting SS who is an average defensive SS, then the plays saved differential between him and a great ranged SS might only be 30-45. Also, remember a hit saved will almost always be a single for the SS position. A great offensive SS can make up for a few missed plays with a timely Hr or 2B. He may also walk 50-80 more times than the weak hitting/great fielding SS. If Iggy can indeed save 100 singles by the opponents (over Aviles), it could be viewed as adding 100 singles to his offense, thereby turning his .180 BA to .380 (over 500 ABs).  Imagine the opponents making 100 more outs over 150 games. This shortens many innings, allows starters to go deeper, the pen to be less taxed, pitcher's confidnece levels to rise, and momentum to swing in our favor. (I know the same could be said about a key 2B by Aviles at a time Iggy would have popped out.) If Iggy is only 50 plays better than Aviles, then his BA might be adjusted from .180 to .280, which is about the same as what we might expect from Aviles, but Aviles will have more HRs and 2Bs, so one could argue Mike is the better choice, however, I am assuming Iggy might hit .180. If he hits .220 and saves 50 hits, he might still be the better choice.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    To prove that, you'd have to have two SS's playing for virtually oidentical teams.

    The closest example I can find is KC in 2011 and 2010.

    Escobar is generally considered one of the best.  Y. Betancourt is generally considered one of the worst.  In 2011, Escobar had 459 assists in 1387.1 IPs in 2011.  Betancourt had 418 assists in 1278.2 IPs.  Pro-rating Betancourt to 1387.1 IPs, he'd have had 454 assits, a difference of 5 assists on the same field with a relatively same pitching staff.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : To prove that, you'd have to have two SS's playing for virtually oidentical teams. The closest example I can find is KC in 2011 and 2010. Escobar is generally considered one of the best.  Y. Betancourt is generally considered one of the worst.  In 2011, Escobar had 459 assists in 1387.1 IPs in 2011.  Betancourt had 418 assists in 1278.2 IPs.  Pro-rating Betancourt to 1387.1 IPs, he'd have had 454 assits, a difference of 5 assists on the same field with a relatively same pitching staff.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    Or with a smaller sample size, Janish (upper tier) and Renteria (lower tier).  Pro-rated over 1500 IPs, Janish would've had 517 assists, while Renteria would've had 497.  Both had a similar number of IPs with the same team.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Why are you noit counting put out? That's where range comes into play perhaps more than assists.

    I wasn't aware Betancourt has poor range.

    Do you honestly think the very best ranged SS will only make 10-15 more plays than the worst over 150 games? That's like only 1 play every 10-15 games!

    Over the years, I have seen some opposing SSs make 2-3 plays in one game that our SS would never make in their wildest dreams.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Or taking Escobar and Betancourt from the Mil perspective, Betancourt actually had more assists/IP in 2011 in Mil than Escobar had with Mil in 2010.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Look at the Sox SSs in 2004:

    Reese     281 chances in 508 Inn  (.553/inn)
    Cabrera  233 chances in 491 Inn  (.475/inn)
    Nomar    139 chances in 311 Inn  (.447/inn)

    Give them all 1300 innings (pro-rated):
    Reese:  718 plays
    Cabre:  617 plays
    Nomar: 581 plays

    FYI
    Assists:
    Reese  190/508= .374 x 1300= 486
    Cabre  147/491= .299 x 1300= 389
    Nomar   81/311= .260 x 1300= 338
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]Why are you noit counting put out? That's where range comes into play perhaps more than assists. I wasn't aware Betancourt has poor range. Do you honestly think the very best ranged SS will only make 10-15 more plays than the worst over 150 games? That's like only 1 play every 10-15 games! Over the years, I have seen some opposing SSs make 2-3 plays in one game that our SS would never make in their wildest dreams.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Putouts, imo, aren't as pure a stat.  You could run up putouts simply by calling off the other fielders a little bit more often.  With assists, you're getting to the ball or you're not.

    However, putouts should certainly factor into it.  Just to put a placeholder in there for it, take a % of the assists and apply it to putouts.  If 'x' gets 10% more assists, the assume he'll get 10% more putouts.

    IRT to what I honestly think, I'd prefer to start off with what I can honestly prove, and then to see whether or not it makes sense.  70-100 seems off the board too high, which is why I started checking.

    IRT Betancourt's range, Fans Scouting Report in the category First Step, ranked Andrus best with a score of 87, Escobar 4th with 82, and Betancourt last with a 10.

    And forget the Mil comparison, I picked the wrong Excobar for that one.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    What's your take on the Sox 2004 assist numbers? Reese had about 150 more than Nomar per 1300 innings.

    I don't think the put out differential should be discounted so much because of caall offs. An IF'er rarely calls off an OF'er, and I don't see many SSs going way out of their space to call off a 2Bman or 3Bman for a pop up, but I do think there could be some adjustments needed. Look, I know it is not an exact science, but I played 2B a lot and know that when we had a great SS, the amount of hits taken away, not to mention relay throws, runners not trying for extra bases, etc... was more than 1 play per game. I adjusted down to 100 plays per 150 because we are talking about MLB SSs. I feel pretty safe saying Iggy will make 50 more than Aviles over 150 games, but I know it can enver be proved.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    IMO, the bottom line with Iglesias, is you can keep him at Pawtucket, and start Aviles, and keep Punto and McDonald on the roster.  If it's not working out, or if there's an injury, or if Iglesias is just absolutely knocking down the door to the big-leagues, then you bring him up at that time. 

    If you start Iglesias at SS now you have to drop somebody.  If you get rid of Punto, and Iglesias doesn't work out, you have to scramble to find another IF at the trade deadline.  If you get rid of McDonald, and Iglesias does work out, you have a useless Nick Punto on the bench instead of a viable RH bat.  Why put yourself in that situation for at best a slim net gain?


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]Look at the Sox SSs in 2004: Reese     281 chances in 508 Inn  (.553/inn) Cabrera  233 chances in 491 Inn  (.475/inn) Nomar    139 chances in 311 Inn  (.447/inn) Give them all 1300 innings (pro-rated): Reese:  718 plays Cabre:  617 plays Nomar: 581 plays FYI Assists: Reese  190/508= .374 x 1300= 486 Cabre  147/491= .299 x 1300= 389 Nomar   81/311= .260 x 1300= 338
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    That implies that Reese is a much better fielder than Cabrera?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]What's your take on the Sox 2004 assist numbers? Reese had about 150 more than Nomar per 1300 innings. I don't think the put out differential should be discounted so much because of caall offs. An IF'er rarely calls off an OF'er, and I don't see many SSs going way out of their space to call off a 2Bman or 3Bman for a pop up, but I do think there could be some adjustments needed. Look, I know it is not an exact science, but I played 2B a lot and know that when we had a great SS, the amount of hits taken away, not to mention relay throws, runners not trying for extra bases, etc... was more than 1 play per game. I adjusted down to 100 plays per 150 because we are talking about MLB SSs. I feel pretty safe saying Iggy will make 50 more than Aviles over 150 games, but I know it can enver be proved.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I think Pokey Reese was a great deal better than Nomar with a bad Achiles.  Maybe the comparison is a little less fair to Cabrera, as he only had about six weeks of meaningful baseball left in the regular season, and Derek Lowe wasn't getting out of the second inning in most of his starts at the end of 2004.  

    But Iglesias's RF/9 was about 4.5 at Pawtucket last year - the same as Aviles's career mark, and just a little above league average.  Even if Iglesias is the best in the league, that's not going to go higher than 5.  

    Let's say that Iglesias could take away 50 singles over the course of the season - Aviles will give us about 240 total bases per 600 ABs.  Iglesias would have to give us 190 to even be a wash.  So far, 160-170 looks more realistic.  Factor in the flexibility of having a SS who can shift to the OF during the game, and the fact that Iglesias can go to Pawtucket without forcing a trade or DFA of another player, and there's really only one sensible decision.



     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    Look at the Sox SSs in 2004: Reese     281 chances in 508 Inn  (.553/inn) Cabrera  233 chances in 491 Inn  (.475/inn) Nomar    139 chances in 311 Inn  (.447/inn) Give them all 1300 innings (pro-rated): Reese:  718 plays Cabre:  617 plays Nomar: 581 plays FYI Assists: Reese  190/508= .374 x 1300= 486 Cabre  147/491= .299 x 1300= 389 Nomar   81/311= .260 x 1300= 338
    Posted by moonslav59


    That implies that Reese is a much better fielder than Cabrera?

    No, the sample size is too small. I just used this as an example to show that it is possible for a SS to make 100+ more plays than another over 150 games. 

    I actually think Cabrera was an excellent fielder in 2004, and that was part of the reason we won the ring that year.

    I looked briefly at some 2011 numbers at SS and found this example:

    TB:
    Brignac      217 assists/681 inn (.319 x 1300) 414 assists per 1300 inn.
    Rodriguez 105 assists/431 inn (.244 x 1300) 316 assists per 1300 inn.

    Another example of a 100 play differential not even counting put outs.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to  Re: Opening Day SS : Look at the Sox SSs in 2004: Reese     281 chances in 508 Inn  (.553/inn) Cabrera  233 chances in 491 Inn  (.475/inn) Nomar    139 chances in 311 Inn  (.447/inn) Give them all 1300 innings (pro-rated): Reese:  718 plays Cabre:  617 plays Nomar: 581 plays FYI Assists: Reese  190/508= .374 x 1300= 486 Cabre  147/491= .299 x 1300= 389 Nomar   81/311= .260 x 1300= 338 Posted by moonslav59 That implies that Reese is a much better fielder than Cabrera? No, the sample size is too small. I just used this as an example to show that it is possible for a SS to make 100+ more plays than another over 150 games.  I actually think Cabrera was an excellent fielder in 2004, and that was part of the reason we won the ring that year. I looked briefly at some 2011 numbers at SS and found this example: TB: Brignac      217 assists/681 inn (.319 x 1300) 414 assists per 1300 inn. Rodriguez 105 assists/431 inn (.244 x 1300) 316 assists per 1300 inn. Another example of a 100 play differential not even counting put outs.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    FYI, Fangraphs has Rodriguez with the better range in 2011.  
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Stat Boy says "Aviles".

    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2012/03/fielding-bibles-dewan-endorses-aviles-for-red-sox-shortstop.html

    John Dewan might be the baseball's foremost statistician when it comes to defense. His 
    Fielding Bible -- is as in-depth a statistical look at the otherwise fuzzily understood topic of baseball defense as exists.

    "Aviles would project at minus-3 runs for the year, Punto at 0," Dewan said. .

    "Iglesias, his (offensive) projection does not look very good so far," Dewan said. "Aviles is a much better hitter. I'd take the defensive hit and try Aviles at shortstop, based on these numbers.

    "This is where the numbers don't necessarily tell you everything. The coaches can go out there and work with them, see if he's made progress, see if he's regressing negatively. But based on the numbers, I'd take a little bit of a defensive hit and play Aviles at shortstop."

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harv53. Show harv53's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]IMO, the bottom line with Iglesias, is you can keep him at Pawtucket, and start Aviles, and keep Punto and McDonald on the roster.  If it's not working out, or if there's an injury, or if Iglesias is just absolutely knocking down the door to the big-leagues, then you bring him up at that time.  If you start Iglesias at SS now you have to drop somebody.  If you get rid of Punto, and Iglesias doesn't work out, you have to scramble to find another IF at the trade deadline.  If you get rid of McDonald, and Iglesias does work out, you have a useless Nick Punto on the bench instead of a viable RH bat.  Why put yourself in that situation for at best a slim net gain?
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    This is not a concern with 11 instead of 12 pitchers. You can keep all three.
     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share