Opening Day SS

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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]Stat Boy says "Aviles". http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2012/03/fielding-bibles-dewan-endorses-aviles-for-red-sox-shortstop.html John Dewan might be the baseball's foremost statistician when it comes to defense. His   Fielding Bible   -- is as in-depth a statistical look at the otherwise fuzzily understood topic of baseball defense as exists. "Aviles would project at minus-3 runs for the year, Punto at 0," Dewan said. . "Iglesias,   his (offensive) projection   does not look very good so far," Dewan said. "Aviles is a much better hitter. I'd take the defensive hit and try Aviles at shortstop, based on these numbers. "This is where the numbers don't necessarily tell you everything. The coaches can go out there and work with them, see if he's made progress, see if he's regressing negatively. But based on the numbers, I'd take a little bit of a defensive hit and play Aviles at shortstop."
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    This is sound in my book.  I was a firm believer in this line of thought until camp.  Now, I find myself swayed by the same undeniable attraction that has many salivating over Iglesias:  it would be soooooo fantastic to watch a webgem ninja playing short everynight for the Sox.  What a cathartic bit of fun.  But, still, underneath the beautiful visions of jose gobbling up everything hit in his vicinity, I think it best to make sure the kid is in the best position to succeed when he makes his proper debut.  I would be less likely to hold this position if I did not think Aviles, who I think will be a pretty capable shortstop, will be a serious offensive threat, given an everyday job.  Certainly he can hold the fort til Iglesias gets some more hitting in at the AAA level.

    Of course, he has been hitting thus far in ST, brief though the sample size be.  So, if he keeps hitting, he certainly makes it hard to keep him down.
     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : This is not a concern with 11 instead of 12 pitchers. You can keep all three.
    Posted by harv53[/QUOTE]

    Who are you cutting from the staff?  Miller, Doubrount and Bowden are out of options, so if they don't make the team out of spring training they're likely gone for good.   
     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    More on Aviles, Punto was brought in because Aviles is a SS or nothing he is not a UIF if he can't play second, third, or RF well enough for WS team.

    In 2008, Aviles graded as an excellent infielder, having saved 12 runs above the average defender while shifting between shortstop (his primary position), second and third. After that, however, Aviles graded poorly, costing his team eight defensive runs in 2010 and two in 2011.

    Per the book: “His footwork isn’t very good regardless of position, but his range is adequate, and he does have the arm strength necessary to make all the throws from third base or shortstop. However, Aviles is a tentative defender even on routine plays, and he made a lot of defensive miscues, both of the mental and physical variety. He did not appear to take well to the role of a utility man. Overall, his net -11 Good Fielding Play minus Defensive Misplays and Errors was worse than all but eight infielders in the league, regardless of position. If Aviles ever hopes to be looked upon as more than a backup infielder, his glove work needs to improve.”

    It is worth noting that Dewan’s assessment of Aviles’ defense was based on his work at third base. Assuming he is the everyday shortstop, Aviles would either need an even more drastic improvement from last year or, if he continues to measure significantly below average, he would need to hit like crazy to offset his shortcomings.

    A caveat: One Red Sox team source suggests that the club’s internal metrics (developed by are somewhat more bullish on Aviles than Dewan’s projection system, particularly given his steadily improving arm strength in the post-Tommy John stage of his career.

    Curious how Jose Iglesias rates? He doesn’t.

    One more footnote in the exercise: Dewan pegged Marco Scutaro as being one run better than league average in both 2010 and 2011 at shortstop. “He remains a solid middle infielder, but at this point in his career he probably will never regain the defensive prowess he displayed across the Canadian border,” said the book.

     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]Why are you noit counting put out? That's where range comes into play perhaps more than assists. I wasn't aware Betancourt has poor range. Do you honestly think the very best ranged SS will only make 10-15 more plays than the worst over 150 games? That's like only 1 play every 10-15 games! Over the years, I have seen some opposing SSs make 2-3 plays in one game that our SS would never make in their wildest dreams.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Dewan compared the Yankees captain to the shortstop he rated as the best in baseball last year — Seattle’s Brendan Ryan, who saved the Mariners 18 runs. By breaking down where both players fielded the ball, he reached a fascinating conclusion: The 33-run differential between them, which is the equivalent of three wins in a season, is due almost entirely to the sliver of space to their right.

    Ranging to the middle, where throws are shorter, each converted roughly 65 percent of the balls hit there into outs, which is league average.

    But going right, the ratios dropped precipitously, with Jeter lagging anywhere from 13 to 38 percent behind Ryan.

     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : Lav's bat is Major League ready right now, but he needs to catch every day at this point.  I'm not sure they would ever go with a strict platoon with these two guys, especially when they both have the "potential" to be above average  starters. The one possibility is Lavarnway is righty DH in '13, while catching a few games, but I dont think that will fly with him.  "These things tend to work themselves out" is an age old cliche, but I think it fits here. 
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    What Lav does at AAA and whether or not Salty improves over last season should dictate where Lav ends up.  I don't think we would hesitate to trade Salty if it came down to Lav being better and neither liking the platoon role.

    I think our days of being loyal left with Theo and Tito if someone doesn't cut it.  One or two more years is long enough to find out how good Salty could be as our every day catcher.  I'm pulling for Salty but either way Lav should find a spot. 

     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : What Lav does at AAA and whether or not Salty improves over last season should dictate where Lav ends up.  I don't think we would hesitate to trade Salty if it came down to Lav being better and neither liking the platoon role. I think our days of being loyal left with Theo and Tito if someone doesn't cut it.  One or two more years is long enough to find out how good Salty could be as our every day catcher.  I'm pulling for Salty but either way Lav should find a spot.  Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE] I agree that they would trade Salty, or even Lav for that matter before they are put in a strict platoon situation...I also agree that if Salty regresses at all, give Lav a shot sooner rather than later. While I agree that Tito showed a lot of player loyalty (it worked well for a long time), but don't put Theo in that category. You won't survive in baseball as a GM if you are "loyal" to certain players. John Henry has a certain "loyalty" to particular players (Ortiz), but not the GMs....
     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    How deep into the season are the sox gonna quit this year?
     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : FYI, Fangraphs has Rodriguez with the better range in 2011.  
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    I used the assist numbers not because I think those are the telling numbers, but to counter Joe's point that it is hard for a SS to make 100+ more assists than another SS under the same circumstances.

    I was surprised to see Fangraphs have Sean Rodriguez rated higher than Brignac, but the sample sizes are small.

     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : FYI, Fangraphs has Rodriguez with the better range in 2011.  
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    I used the assist numbers not because I think those are the telling numbers, but to counter Joe's point that it is hard for a SS to make 100+ more assists than another SS under the same circumstances.

    I was surprised to see Fangraphs have Sean Rodriguez rated higher than Brignac, but the sample sizes are small.

     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In response to "Re: Opening Day SS": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : I used the assist numbers not because I think those are the telling numbers, but to counter Joe's point that it is hard for a SS to make 100+ more assists than another SS under the same circumstances. I was surprised to see Fangraphs have Sean Rodriguez rated higher than Brignac, but the sample sizes are small. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Can I call you "Moonie two times?" ;)
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : I used the assist numbers not because I think those are the telling numbers, but to counter Joe's point that it is hard for a SS to make 100+ more assists than another SS under the same circumstances. I was surprised to see Fangraphs have Sean Rodriguez rated higher than Brignac, but the sample sizes are small.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I believe Fan Graphs is actually plotting the balls into expected 'zones', whereas the traditional RF is just the average chances / game.  we still have a long ways to go on defensive stats, but I think you're right about a 50-chance differential between Aviles and Iglesias being reasonable.  I just don't think that makes Iglesias the right choice - at least not to start the season.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Opening Day SS : I believe Fan Graphs is actually plotting the balls into expected 'zones', whereas the traditional RF is just the average chances / game.  we still have a long ways to go on defensive stats, but I think you're right about a 50-chance differential between Aviles and Iglesias being reasonable.  I just don't think that makes Iglesias the right choice - at least not to start the season.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    I totally get this point. I understand that the foundation of my position is based on 2 suppositions:
    1) Aviles is an average defensive SS at best.
    2) Iggy is a top 5 defensive MLB SS right now.

    I am not pretending to be a know-it-all. I know I could be wrong on both counts or grossly wrong on 1 count. I happen to believe that Iggy's range, instincts and arm will account for closer to 75 more outs (more plays) than Aviles. It may be 50. It may be 100. It may be just 25, but I am certain it would be more.

    I haven't seen either of these two guys play enough to know for sure, but I trust scouting reports concerning defense. Scouts rarely get defense wrong.

    I understand that my giving Iggy 75 singles as a way to compare his skillset to Aviles' is crude and oversimplifying things. I know Aviles will get more extra base hits than Iggy and those count for more than singles. They both do not and probably will not walk much in 2012 (I'll guess they may be close to even on BBs). Doing the math in this crude way could work out something like this:

    Comparing two 500 ABs projected seasons:

    Aviles:  
    145 for 500 (.290) with about 200 total bases (not counting BBs).

    Iggy:
    100 for 500 (.200) with about 125 total bases (not counting BBs).

    If you give Iggy 75 singles for the 75 outs he saves, it would put him at about a .350 BA (175/500) and even in total bases.

    If you give Iggy just 50 more plays, I can see how the argument swings closer to Aviles being the choice.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    Aviles is no more a SS than Lowrie pretended to be. To be an everyday SS, a player needs to possess the talent to perform at a high defensive level.  Certainly, if a slugigng weak defensive SS is stuck in SS for hitting, he better be an outstanding hitter. Mike Aviles makes me laugh as a fielder and a hitter. He is a utility level of performance profile, end of story.
     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    [QUOTE]Aviles is no more a SS than Lowrie pretended to be. To be an everyday SS, a player needs to possess the talent to perform at a high defensive level.  Certainly, if a slugigng weak defensive SS is stuck in SS for hitting, he better be an outstanding hitter. Mike Aviles makes me laugh as a fielder and a hitter. He is a utility level of performance profile, end of story.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    If Aviles makes you laugh as a hitter, Iglesias must have you peeing your pants.  Offense and Defense are both important - on net, they are about a push.  With the roster implications, the tie goes to Aviles.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Opening Day SS

    In Response to Re: Opening Day SS:
    Aviles is no more a SS than Lowrie pretended to be. To be an everyday SS, a player needs to possess the talent to perform at a high defensive level.  Certainly, if a slugigng weak defensive SS is stuck in SS for hitting, he better be an outstanding hitter. Mike Aviles makes me laugh as a fielder and a hitter. He is a utility level of performance profile, end of story.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr


    If Aviles makes you laugh as a hitter, Iglesias must have you peeing your pants.  Offense and Defense are both important - on net, they are about a push.  With the roster implications, the tie goes to Aviles.

    mr. hanky flips and flops more than Mitt Romney. He slammed the Scutaro signing, then bashed Ben for trading him.

    Aviles has a career .288 BA. If that is laughable for a MLB SS, then softy is the only one laughing.

    My issue with Aviles is his fielding, particularly his range. I have not seen him enough to know for sure how good (or bad) he is at SS, but I am certain Iggy is better, and perhaps he is much much better.
     
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    Re: Opening Day SS

    If that is laughable for a MLB SS,

    Aviles is not a MLB SS, for those who lack reading comprehension.

    And for the senile self laudatory spam poster, I never wrote a single word critical of putting Scutaro on the trade block. It was what he was traded for. Scutaro was never a SS to start with, and the Red Sox run prevention suffered greatly as result of that. At least Scutaro's weak pull swing worked well for the Red Sox, though not well enough to offset his defensive liablilities.

    And Mike Aviles is a weak punch and judy hitter with a career .318 OBP. Lousy defender and lousy plate work for the latest addition of Red Sox players being stuck at SS for hitting, when they aren't good hitters to start with!!!!!!!!!!!!

    At SS, it takes a ton of offense to come close to "offset" a backup 2nd baseman profile.

    Avilies as an everyday SS is truly a joke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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