Ortiz signs two year deal

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    26/85 is what he will put up... big yippee.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Ortiz will not be overly productive if he is the "go to" guy in the batting order. 




    Who knows?  Maybe the peace of mind, feeling respected, and knowing that the team made re-signing him a priority will give Papi some extra confidence and mojo in the coming seasons.

    At the very least, I think a happy and secure Papi will be more focused on clubhouse and on the field issues, and he will provide the clubhouse leadership and attitude that is needed.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    26/85 is what he will put up... big yippee.



    What worries me most is his near total loss of late inning and clutch heroics.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    When Manny was traded Ortiz "mentally folded" and it took him more than a year to get back his "mojo".... without an AGon here or an equvilent Ortiz will be naked in the line-up. It won't be his fault they pitch around him or put on the shift.... there is little to no value in this deal unless they had a bona-fide masher to hit ahead of him.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    When Manny was traded Ortiz "mentally folded" and it took him more than a year to get back his "mojo".... without an AGon here or an equvilent Ortiz will be naked in the line-up. It won't be his fault they pitch around him or put on the shift.... there is little to no value in this deal unless they had a bona-fide masher to hit ahead of him.



    He hasn't hit well "late & close" for about 5 years now- good hitters around him or not, but it would help to have Justin Upton in front and a power RH'd bat behind.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    moon is it a new era, the era of the Upton bro's?  Not that it would be the best idea....but....... anyhow I would take Justin Upton without any hesitation.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    signing papi was smart because it continues the good vibes that farrell's hiring was intended to bring....why it took so long i have no idea except ben is quite constipated or insecure when it comes to GM duties...papi contract figures are exactly what every person on this board said it would be months ago....2/25 or so....

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    Not a bad contract...i first mentioned on the other post saying he should get one year deal for 14 mm with no incentatives or two years deal up to 25mm with a little incentatives.


    Well, now the sox made two good moves, Got Farrell and then resigned Papi.

    Next is Ross and starting pitching!!!

    If Ben fixed that, Red Sox are on a good roll!!

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    He hasn't hit well "late & close" for about 5 years now- good hitters around him or not, but it would help to have Justin Upton in front and a power RH'd bat behind.



    moon, I'm not sure why the late & close stat is bothering you so much.  Baseball-Reference has a whole range of 'clutch stats' and Ortiz's other 'clutch stats' are all excellent for 2012.

    Certainly the .682 'late & close' isn't stellar.  It's 51 plate appearances.  11 walks and 2 sac flies, 38 AB's.  The OBP was .392.

    I would suspect that if you dig into the 38 AB's you'll find that most were probably against tough lefty relievers.

    I'm not dismissing the stat but I think if you put it in perspective it does little to damage his overall productivity in 2012.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from funinCA. Show funinCA's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to BoSoxfan56's comment:

    Sean McAdam reporting Sox and Ortiz have reached a deal:

    David Ortiz has reached agreement with the Red Sox on a two-year, $26 million contract with incentives that could raise the value of the deal to $30 million.

    http://www.csnne.com/baseball-boston-redsox/redsox-talk/Update-Ortiz-signs-two-year-deal-with-Re?blockID=797075&feedID=10948



    What a mistake, one year at a time at his age. If he has a good season, resign him again until he can't hit. But two years at 13 million for a dh, thats a lot of money.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    When Manny was traded Ortiz "mentally folded" and it took him more than a year to get back his "mojo".... without an AGon here or an equvilent Ortiz will be naked in the line-up. It won't be his fault they pitch around him or put on the shift.... there is little to no value in this deal unless they had a bona-fide masher to hit ahead of him.

     

    I'm not sure this theory has merit.

    Ortiz and the guys who batted behind him:

    08  DO  .877    Manny  .926  Youk  .958

    09  DO  .794    Bay  .921   Youk  .961    Lowell  .811

    10  DO   .899   Youk  .975  

    11  DO  .953       Crawford  .694 (40 games)    Salty   .737

    12  DO  1.026    Ross .807     Salty    .742    Lava  .459

    My take is he couldn't get to fastballs as well as before or after in '10 and '11 (probably worse vs LHP).

    Swinging strike %     -      FB% seen

    08     8.6             54

    09     10.3          58

    10     10.2          58

    11     7.0             52

    12     6.3             53

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    moon is it a new era, the era of the Upton bro's?  Not that it would be the best idea....but....... anyhow I would take Justin Upton without any hesitation.



    26/85 is what he will put up...big yippee :-)

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to SindarinEribor's comment:

    In response to georom4's comment:

    signing papi was smart because it continues the good vibes that farrell's hiring was intended to bring....why it took so long i have no idea except ben is quite constipated or insecure when it comes to GM duties...papi contract figures are exactly what every person on this board said it would be months ago....2/25 or so....



    The difference however is that you whined that it wasn't done yesterday and called Ben inept because of that. Now today you will whine about Ross and he'll be signed on Monday.


    ben couldnt even pull the trigger on this deal....that was bad....there is no defending him imo considering all the factors/reasons why this shouldve been done MONTHS ago

    Ross signed on monday? really???  where did you get that info from?  all i read was ben saying ross's resigning was a "challenge".....he was the best thing he did in his error-prone rookie GM season....ross also shouldve been resigned months ago..were not talking 15 mil a yr here

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to SindarinEribor's comment:

    You had access to the medical reports, Papi's intentions, agent's demands, and Ben's approach months ago? Good for you.



    you need all that to see if papi would sign again? you might be as constitpated as Ben..congrats...anyone with common sense couldve told you what he was worth (i did) and what he woukld sign for...i must be nostradamus...or ben just cant get off the chitter like usual

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    He hasn't hit well "late & close" for about 5 years now- good hitters around him or not, but it would help to have Justin Upton in front and a power RH'd bat behind.



    moon, I'm not sure why the late & close stat is bothering you so much.  Baseball-Reference has a whole range of 'clutch stats' and Ortiz's other 'clutch stats' are all excellent for 2012.

    Certainly the .682 'late & close' isn't stellar.  It's 51 plate appearances.  11 walks and 2 sac flies, 38 AB's.  The OBP was .392.

    I would suspect that if you dig into the 38 AB's you'll find that most were probably against tough lefty relievers.

    I'm not dismissing the stat but I think if you put it in perspective it does little to damage his overall productivity in 2012.



    It's not just 2012. This goes back 5 years. I realize age regression happens, but Papi faced tough lefty relievers from 2004-2008 as well.

    Personally, I think the "late & close" stat is the best "clutch" stat available, but by any indicator you use, Papi has seriously declined in this area with many various reasons to choose from or combine.

    Here's a look at OPS:

    L&C = Late & Close  (7th inning or later & tied, 1 ahead/ 1 behind w/ tying run on deck)

    HL = High Leverage

    Year     L&C       HL

    2004  1.014   1.063 (plus Playoff heroics)

    2005  1.293   1.312

    2006  1.199   1.100

    2007    .766   1.019  (plus Playoff heroics)

    2008    .674    .859

    2009   .709     .839

    2010   .643     .786

    2011  .895      .846

    2012   .682     .980

    The Late & Close numbers, if graphed out, would create a near perfect bell curve and steady drop off since 2005.

    The High leverage numbers show an uptick from 2010 to 2012, but 2012's sample size is just 44 ABs and still is below 2004 to 2007's rates.

     

    Walk-off HRs:

    Papi has 10 career walk-off HRs in the regular season, but when was his last one?

    8/26/09

    Before that, it was 9/12/07 (not counting the 2007 playoff heroics).

     

    I'm not sure if he has even had a walk off hit since 2009.

    He has had some big hits in the top of the ninth, including an HR that put us ahead in 2010, but he has seriously dropped off in big heroic hits even in games that don't matter much.

     

    Go ahead hits since 2004:

    28> 24> 36> 26> 18> 17> 29> 14 >10

     

     

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to georom4's comment:

    In response to SindarinEribor's comment:

    You had access to the medical reports, Papi's intentions, agent's demands, and Ben's approach months ago? Good for you.



    you need all that to see if papi would sign again? you might be as constitpated as Ben..congrats...anyone with common sense couldve told you what he was worth (i did) and what he woukld sign for...i must be nostradamus...or ben just cant get off the chitter like usual




    You also said that Bobby V was the right choice too...yeah, that went well Nostradamus...It doesnt matter how logical anyone here is, you dont like Ben C and theres nothing anyone can say and Nothing he can do to change that. You'll find fault somewhere no matter how irrational it may be.

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Walk-off HRs:

    Papi has 10 career walk-off HRs in the regular season, but when was his last one?

    8/26/09

    Before that, it was 9/12/07 (not counting the 2007 playoff heroics)



    I would say this is the law of averages catching up to him more than anything.  10 career walk-off HR's puts Ortiz among the alltime leaders.  Jim Thome holds the record with 13, and that's in 2543 games, or about one every 200 games.  They're not very common occurrences.  How many did Manny have?  I can only remember the one in the 2007 ALCS.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ortiz signs two year deal

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Walk-off HRs:

    Papi has 10 career walk-off HRs in the regular season, but when was his last one?

    8/26/09

    Before that, it was 9/12/07 (not counting the 2007 playoff heroics)



    I would say this is the law of averages catching up to him more than anything.  10 career walk-off HR's puts Ortiz among the alltime leaders.  Jim Thome holds the record with 13, and that's in 2543 games, or about one every 200 games.  They're not very common occurrences.  How many did Manny have?  I can only remember the one in the 2007 ALCS.



    It is very clear that Papi is not even close to the same player "when it counts" as he was from 2004-2007.  One would expect regression with age, but the regression is by much more than his overall number regression. Much much more.

     
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