Ortiz will decline
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Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/24/2011 3:10 PM EST
- Critter23
- Posts: 898
- First: 2/13/2009
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I love what Papi's done for the RS and he's been more than adequate, ie. "earned his paycheck" the last two years. However, I will not be sorry to see him go if we get two draft picks for him. If he's here next year, I'll root like crazy for him. -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 7:32 AM EST
- georom4
- Posts: 7385
- First: 4/9/2009
- Last: 5/19/2013
soft, if you wouldnt sign paps for 15 mil a yr than you shouldnt do it for a 36 yr old Papi...he's simply not worth it -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 8:20 AM EST
- Bill-806
- Posts: 14469
- First: 8/6/2008
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In Response to Ortiz will decline:http://twitter.com/#!/ScottLauber/status/139545291660591104 Then he will sign with Baltimore. My guessHOPE SO ....& LUCCIANO's DOES TOO !!!
Posted by Eufrates -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 9:34 AM EST
- rgmfick
- Posts: 1231
- First: 1/4/2006
- Last: 1/6/2012
If David Ortiz signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get 2 draft picks for David Ortiz. With Youk, Saltalamacchia, Lavarnway and AGON to play some DH, letting Big Papi go seems like a much better option. If David gets a raise from an arbitrator for 1 season, it is fine, but anymore than 1 season makes little sense. -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 9:55 AM EST
- parhunter1
- Posts: 3695
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Nobody is trying to say Guerrero is as good or better than Papi. But Guerrero, at about 8 million on a one-year deal, and two draft picks is a lot better value than Ortiz at 15 million on a one-year deal, or two at 25-26 million, IMO.
I hope the Sox refuse to offer a multi-year deal, and that Ortiz is offered one by Toronto and/or the Orioles, and that he elects to sign with either of them. The Sox will be better off in the long term, and in the short term they will lose a bit of offense, but not much clutch offense. David was particularly dismal in that regard in August and September, and his clutchness has not been the same since 2007, the last time he was using steroids regularly (in all likelihood). -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 10:46 AM EST
- Joebreidey
- Posts: 13516
- First: 5/30/2008
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Nobody is trying to say Guerrero is as good or better than Papi. But Guerrero, at about 8 million on a one-year deal, and two draft picks is a lot better value than Ortiz at 15 million on a one-year deal, or two at 25-26 million, IMO.I think Vlad would be a waste. If we wanted to go with a strict DH, Papi is not bad value. I'd much prefer to pay $12.5M for a .900 OPS than $8M for a .740 OPS. The idea, imho, is not so much as to trade down at DH as much as to get away from a strict DH model. If you can't afford $10M for a RF and $10M for a DH, then spend the $10M on RF and make up the DH as you go along. -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 11:44 AM EST
- moonslav59
- Posts: 34346
- First: 9/27/2005
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If Papi walks, I doubt we replace him with another solo DH type. We have 2 options: slide Youk to DH or give Lava a chance to make it big. We could even combine the two.
Of course, we'd have to expect a big drop off from Papi to Lava, but we could be surprised. We'd have to expect a big dropoff from Papi to an Aviles/Lowrie 3B platoon, but again, I think we might be surprised at how well those two could do as a platoon (with maybe Middlebrooks helping out later in the season). Mixing up the DH position makes the most sense, if Papi walks. I'd be fine with the drop off, if I felt comfortable with what Ben spends the "savings" on. Not knowing who that will be makes the losing of Papi harder to handle. Knowing that we are already near last year's payroll budget and the threshold will be about $178M this year, makes it highly unlikely we can replace Papi (or sign/trade for a solid RF'er to take up the slack of losing Papi) AND rebuild our pitching staff-- our real top priority.
As I have said before, I am for taking a hit on offense, in order to build our staff up with quality and quantity. -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 11:54 AM EST
- susan250
- Posts: 6919
- First: 6/19/2009
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In Response to Re: Ortiz will decline:Wastefield and Varitek need to go. The Red Sox certainly would benefit from one more decent year from Ortiz.
Posted by hankwilliams
I would be surprised if either Wakefield or Varitek are resigned by the Red Sox. I wouldn't mind seeing Varitek return to the Red Sox, but would be very happy if Wakefield is signed by another team or finally decides to retire. -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 11:59 AM EST
- Bill-806
- Posts: 14469
- First: 8/6/2008
- Last: 5/20/2013
In Response to Re: Ortiz will decline:If Papi walks, I doubt we replace him with another solo DH type. We have 2 options: slide Youk to DH or give Lava a chance to make it big. We could even combine the two. Of course, we'd have to expect a big drop off from Papi to Lava, but we could be surprised. We'd have to expect a big dropoff from Papi to an Aviles/Lowrie 3B platoon, but again, I think we might be surprised at how well those two could do as a platoon (with maybe Middlebrooks helping out later in the season). Mixing up the DH position makes the most sense, if Papi walks. I'd be fine with the drop off, if I felt comfortable with what Ben spends the "savings" on. Not knowing who that will be makes the losing of Papi harder to handle. Knowing that we are already near last year's payroll budget and the threshold will be about $178M this year, makes it highly unlikely we can replace Papi (or sign/trade for a solid RF'er to take up the slack of losing Papi) AND rebuild our pitching staff-- our real top priority. As I have said before, I am for taking a hit on offense, in order to build our staff up with quality and quantity.MOONMAN..... WE HAVE A B I N G O HERE !!!
Posted by moonslav59 -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 12:00 PM EST
- moonslav59
- Posts: 34346
- First: 9/27/2005
- Last: 5/20/2013
What players in the Red Sox farm system are better than Vladimir Guerrero?
I don't think the Red Sox should pursue Guerrero, but Bill James projects a .296/.347/.462/.809 line with 17 homeruns, 62 runs and 73 RBI in 500 plate apearances in 2012.
Guerrero is no longer great shakes, but the Red Sox are particularly thin on MLB-ready prospects.
Hill55
James also projects this...
Lavarnway (231 PAs) .275 13 41 (.351/.527/.878)
Lowrie (370 PAs) .271 6 40 (.348/.437/.785)
Aviles (333 PAs) .279 7 39 (.311/.423/.734)
Combined I think they could give us this in replacing Papi:
.275/.345/.480/.825 20-25 HRs and 90 RBIs.
FYI: here's Bill's Youk forecast:
(576 PAs) .281 21 87 (.389/.489/.878)
About 60 more PAs than 2011 and a .042 better OPS.
Put it all together, and going by Bill James' predictions, we might not lose as much as some expect at DH/3B combined.
Bill's Papi projection for 2012:
(623 PAs) .277 30 86 (.378/.517/.895)
That's only about a .070 higher OPS than the possible Lava/Lowrie/Aviles combination.
Sidenote: I find it interesting that Bill gives Lava a higher slugging% than Papi for 2012. -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 12:01 PM EST
- Joebreidey
- Posts: 13516
- First: 5/30/2008
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In Response to Re: Ortiz will decline:In Response to Re: Ortiz will decline : What players in the Red Sox farm system are better than Vladimir Guerrero? I don't think the Red Sox should pursue Guerrero, but Bill James projects a .296/.347/.462/.809 line with 17 homeruns, 62 runs and 73 RBI in 500 plate apearances in 2012. Guerrero is no longer great shakes, but the Red Sox are particularly thin on MLB-ready prospects.
Posted by hill55Lavarnway.Bill James projects as .275/.351/.527/.878. And the point is not that are necessairly better hitters either. Say James is way off, and Lavarnway is 100 points lower in OPS. So you ger .778 instead of .809 from Vlad. But you save $7.5M (thought I doubt Vlad gets more than $5M), and you have someone that can catch. He's a much better value and fit. -
Re: Ortiz will decline
posted at 11/25/2011 12:35 PM EST
- moonslav59
- Posts: 34346
- First: 9/27/2005
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Valddy is not going to be in Boston next year. I'd lay 500 to 1 odds.