Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bigpapa1977. Show Bigpapa1977's posts

    Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar

    1) Carlos Delgado (38 HRs at age 36, out of baseball before age 38)

    2) Jason Giambi (36 HRs at age 37, has hit a TOTAL of 42 HRs in the last 5 years and no more than 13 in any one season since)

    3) Paul Konerko (26 HRs at age 36, 12 at age 37 and just a 2.5 MM deal for age 38)

    4) Jeff Bagwell (27 HRs at age 36, out of baseball before age 38)

    5) Jim Edmunds (20 HRs at age 38, did not play at age 39, had 11 HRs at 40 and then out of baseball)

    6) Andres Galarraga (28 HRs at age 39!, a total of 39 HRs in the following 4 seasons, 17 at age 40 and no more than 12 in any of the other 3 seasons)

    7) Juan Gonzlaez (24 HRs at age 33, 5 HRs for the last 2 seasons of his career)

    8) Lance Berkman (31 HRs at age 35, 8 HRs for the last two seasons, is currently unsigned for 2014)

    9) Jose Canseco (16 HRs at age 36 and did not play again)

    10) Willie Stargel (32 HRs at age 39!, 14 total over the last 3 years of his career)

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    Nice comps Big Papa.  No doubt significant factors is the FO's feeling no rush to give in to David's hard-ball take-it-public approach to a multi-year deal going forward.  

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    In response to Bigpapa1977's comment:

    1) Carlos Delgado (38 HRs at age 36, out of baseball before age 38)

    2) Jason Giambi (36 HRs at age 37, has hit a TOTAL of 42 HRs in the last 5 years and no more than 13 in any one season since)

    3) Paul Konerko (26 HRs at age 36, 12 at age 37 and just a 2.5 MM deal for age 38)

    4) Jeff Bagwell (27 HRs at age 36, out of baseball before age 38)

    5) Jim Edmunds (20 HRs at age 38, did not play at age 39, had 11 HRs at 40 and then out of baseball)

    6) Andres Galarraga (28 HRs at age 39!, a total of 39 HRs in the following 4 seasons, 17 at age 40 and no more than 12 in any of the other 3 seasons)

    7) Juan Gonzlaez (24 HRs at age 33, 5 HRs for the last 2 seasons of his career)

    8) Lance Berkman (31 HRs at age 35, 8 HRs for the last two seasons, is currently unsigned for 2014)

    9) Jose Canseco (16 HRs at age 36 and did not play again)

    10) Willie Stargel (32 HRs at age 39!, 14 total over the last 3 years of his career)

    WOW & WOW again....... Stats don't lie unless they are coming out of Washington D C ........  Let me take some time to DIGEST this before DAD & I call BEN C.  to give our opinion !!!


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    Papi is a DH. The guys on your list were not.

    There are plenty of examples of player doing well after age 38.

    How many players improved their numbers from ages 32-34 to 35-37? Find the comps on those players and get back to me.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    Eventually you guys will get it right, but some of you have been predicting Papi's demise for 4-5 years.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Papi is a DH. The guys on your list were not.

    There are plenty of examples of player doing well after age 38.

    How many players improved their numbers from ages 32-34 to 35-37? Find the comps on those players and get back to me.

    Moon,  Whe it "goes, it goes" !!!   Look at Jim Rice, one of my favorite players.......  Went fast at the end !!!   The "end never ends well"  !!


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    i predict he will still be able to jog around the bases for a few more years.....

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BobLoblaw2005a. Show BobLoblaw2005a's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Eventually you guys will get it right, but some of you have been predicting Papi's demise for 4-5 years.




    As DAD (or was it FORREST, FORREST GUMP?) would say, "THAT'S A BINGO!!!!"

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    In response to BobLoblaw2005a's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Eventually you guys will get it right, but some of you have been predicting Papi's demise for 4-5 years.




    As DAD (or was it FORREST, FORREST GUMP?) would say, "THAT'S A BINGO!!!!"

    Cool


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    Sorry for the long link, I caught this over on the Soxprospects forum.  I guess Papi was #1 in HR's on fastballs above 95 MPH.  So say what you will about Ortiz, but he can still keep up with the heat. 

     

     

    http://baseballsavant.com/pitchfx_search.php?hfPT=ff%7Cft%7Cfc%7Csi%7Cfs%7C&hfZ=&hfPR=&hfAB=17%7C&hfBB=&hfHL=&ddlCount=&ddlYear=&ddlPlayer=batter&ddlMin=0&ddlPitcherHand=&ddlBatterHand=&ddlVGT=95&ddlVLT=&txtGameDateGT=&txtGameDateLT=&ddlTeam=&ddlPosition=&hfRO=&ddlHomeRoad=&hfIN=&hfOT=&ddlSort=desc&ddlGroupBy=name&chkMedia=on&ddlRPXGT_ft=&ddlRPXGT_in=&ddlRPXLT_ft=&ddlRPXLT_in=&ddlRPYGT_ft=&ddlRPYGT_in=&ddlRPYLT_ft=&ddlRPYLT_in=&txtBAGT=&txtBALT=&txtBLGT=&txtBLLT=&txtSRGT=&txtSRLT=&txtSDGT=&txtSDLT=#results

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bigpapa1977. Show Bigpapa1977's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar

    Papi is a DH. The guys on your list were not.

    There are plenty of examples of player doing well after age 38.

    How many players improved their numbers from ages 32-34 to 35-37? Find the comps on those players and get back to me.

     

    1) A lot of these guys played DH at some point in their career - some extensively. Especially Canseco, Giambi and Gonzalez.

    2) Why don't you provide examples of people who played well after 38?  Especially overweight power hitters.

    3) No thanks.  You can certainly get that information if you would like and get back to me.  I would be happy to take a look at what you find.

     

    I am pointing out that the Ortiz that you have today, is not likely the same hitter that you are going to have next year (or beyond).  All of these guys were barely hanging on by age 40, if they were even still playing baseball.

    If management wants to give him another 15 MM for the 2015 season (when he will be 39), then I think that is generous.  Anything more than that is just foolish.  How did Derek Jeter (the model of consistency) perform at age 39?

    I think that Ortiz is a wonderful player and has helped the Sox win 3 more World Championships than the Sox had for the first 27 years of my life.  But after the 2014 season the Red Sox will have paid David Ortiz over $125,000,000.  I think that they have already showed him the 'respect' and 'love' that he rightly deserved.

    Did anyone read his comments?  Did it sound like he would be happy with 1 year tacked onto his current deal?  It sounded to me like he wanted a 2-3 year extension or for ages: 39, 40 and possibly 41.

    Again, if Ortiz wants to go for a 1 year extension, and BC is urged to make it happen, then fine.  But then Ortiz will say the exact same thing in January 2015 that he said before and after the 2012 season and before this upcoming season.

    At some point in time, the Sox have part ways with Ortiz.  Isn't it better to do that a year too early, versus 1, 2, or 3 years too late?

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    In response to Bigpapa1977's comment:

    Papi is a DH. The guys on your list were not.

    There are plenty of examples of player doing well after age 38.

    How many players improved their numbers from ages 32-34 to 35-37? Find the comps on those players and get back to me.

     

    1) A lot of these guys played DH at some point in their career - some extensively. Especially Canseco, Giambi and Gonzalez.

    2) Why don't you provide examples of people who played well after 38?  Especially overweight power hitters.

    3) No thanks.  You can certainly get that information if you would like and get back to me.  I would be happy to take a look at what you find.

     

    I am pointing out that the Ortiz that you have today, is not likely the same hitter that you are going to have next year (or beyond).  All of these guys were barely hanging on by age 40, if they were even still playing baseball.

    If management wants to give him another 15 MM for the 2015 season (when he will be 39), then I think that is generous.  Anything more than that is just foolish.  How did Derek Jeter (the model of consistency) perform at age 39?

    I think that Ortiz is a wonderful player and has helped the Sox win 3 more World Championships than the Sox had for the first 27 years of my life.  But after the 2014 season the Red Sox will have paid David Ortiz over $125,000,000.  I think that they have already showed him the 'respect' and 'love' that he rightly deserved.

    Did anyone read his comments?  Did it sound like he would be happy with 1 year tacked onto his current deal?  It sounded to me like he wanted a 2-3 year extension or for ages: 39, 40 and possibly 41.

    Again, if Ortiz wants to go for a 1 year extension, and BC is urged to make it happen, then fine.  But then Ortiz will say the exact same thing in January 2015 that he said before and after the 2012 season and before this upcoming season.

    At some point in time, the Sox have part ways with Ortiz.  Isn't it better to do that a year too early, versus 1, 2, or 3 years too late?

     



    So you mean like the Twins did after 6 yrs... ? Thats what i call   funny !!!

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    Papi is a DH. The guys on your list were not.

    There are plenty of examples of player doing well after age 38.

    How many players improved their numbers from ages 32-34 to 35-37? Find the comps on those players and get back to me.

     

    1) A lot of these guys played DH at some point in their career - some extensively. Especially Canseco, Giambi and Gonzalez.

    And how many of the guys on the list improved over their age 32-34 years during thier 35-37 stretch?

     

    2) Why don't you provide examples of people who played well after 38?  Especially overweight power hitters.

    Papi has lost weight and looks better than ever.

     

    3) No thanks.  You can certainly get that information if you would like and get back to me.  I would be happy to take a look at what you find.

    Well, just look at the last guy on your list. If we extend Papi a year, he'ss be playing until he's 39.

    Willie Stargell at age...

    38  .295  28  97  (.949 OPS)

    39 .281  32  82  (.904)

    Then there's (maybe not so "fat", but)...

    Frank Thomas .926 at 38 & .857 at 39 (65 Hrs combined)

    Hank Aaron: .904 at age 38,  1.045 OPS at 39,. and .832 at 40

    Edgar Martinez: .966, .888, & .895 from ages 38-40 (151 XBHs combined)

    Some big seasons at age 39 or older...

    (I won't list Bonds)

    Baines .919

    Mays   .907 & .897

    Gallaaga .895

    E Murray .891

    Darrell Eveans .880

    Jeff Kent .875

    Winfield .867

    McCovey .867

    Molitor .858

    Gaetti .852

    R Jackson .847

     

    Now, why don't you provide a list of players since 1965 (not named Barry Bonds) that had over 1500 PAs from ages 35-37 and a better OPS?

    Here, I'll do it for you:

    1) Aaron  1.012

    2) E Martinez .998

    3) Gallarraga  .974

    That's it.

    Maybe Papi is something special.

     

    Ages 36-37: same list, but add Manny Ramirez.

     

    How about age just 37 and 600+ PAs?

    1) Bonds  1.381

    2) Martinez 1.002

    3) Galarraga .991

    4) Palmeiro .962

    5) Ortiz .959

     

     

    I am pointing out that the Ortiz that you have today, is not likely the same hitter that you are going to have next year (or beyond).  All of these guys were barely hanging on by age 40, if they were even still playing baseball.

    That's what I heard last year, and the year before, and the year before...

    I'm not doubting that he will drop off soon, but even at 80% of his 2013 numbers, he's worth $15M in performance and fan draw.

     

    If management wants to give him another 15 MM for the 2015 season (when he will be 39), then I think that is generous.  Anything more than that is just foolish.  How did Derek Jeter (the model of consistency) perform at age 39?

    I would not give him $15M beyond 2015, but I might give him an incentive laden deal with a buyout.

     

    I think that Ortiz is a wonderful player and has helped the Sox win 3 more World Championships than the Sox had for the first 27 years of my life.  But after the 2014 season the Red Sox will have paid David Ortiz over $125,000,000.  I think that they have already showed him the 'respect' and 'love' that he rightly deserved.

    He's been underpaid almost every year.

     

    Did anyone read his comments?  Did it sound like he would be happy with 1 year tacked onto his current deal?  It sounded to me like he wanted a 2-3 year extension or for ages: 39, 40 and possibly 41.

    Of course he'd want 2-3 years added on. Of course he'd ask after a year like 2013 and a god-like WS, but I seriously doubt he's going to pout or cause trouble if we only give him 2015.

     

    Again, if Ortiz wants to go for a 1 year extension, and BC is urged to make it happen, then fine.  But then Ortiz will say the exact same thing in January 2015 that he said before and after the 2012 season and before this upcoming season.

    So? Why wouldn't he? If he is performing well...

     

    At some point in time, the Sox have part ways with Ortiz.  Isn't it better to do that a year too early, versus 1, 2, or 3 years too late?

    Some were saying 2013 should have been that "year too early". Few were even saying 2012 and 2011.

    The witch hunt continues.

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t

    I know most of history is against Papi:

    Looking at players since 1925 with 450+ PAs in a season, only...

    7 guys age 39 had a .900 + OPS (21 over .800)

    3 guys age 40 had a .900+ OPS (Cobb, Mays and Baines) and 9 over .800.

    2 guys age 41 (Bonds & Musial) and Ibanez at .793 in 2013.

    Only Bonds, Appling and Fisk had an .825+ OPS at age 42 or older. (Yaz .789)

     

    But, who in history has hit like Papi in World Series after World Series. The guy appears to be the type of player that continually defies the odds.

     
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