Re: Ortiz's Similarity Scores, top 10 most similar and how t
posted at 1/28/2014 3:31 AM EST
Papi is a DH. The guys on your list were not.
There are plenty of examples of player doing well after age 38.
How many players improved their numbers from ages 32-34 to 35-37? Find the comps on those players and get back to me.
1) A lot of these guys played DH at some point in their career - some extensively. Especially Canseco, Giambi and Gonzalez.
And how many of the guys on the list improved over their age 32-34 years during thier 35-37 stretch?
2) Why don't you provide examples of people who played well after 38? Especially overweight power hitters.
Papi has lost weight and looks better than ever.
3) No thanks. You can certainly get that information if you would like and get back to me. I would be happy to take a look at what you find.
Well, just look at the last guy on your list. If we extend Papi a year, he'ss be playing until he's 39.
Willie Stargell at age...
38 .295 28 97 (.949 OPS)
39 .281 32 82 (.904)
Then there's (maybe not so "fat", but)...
Frank Thomas .926 at 38 & .857 at 39 (65 Hrs combined)
Hank Aaron: .904 at age 38, 1.045 OPS at 39,. and .832 at 40
Edgar Martinez: .966, .888, & .895 from ages 38-40 (151 XBHs combined)
Some big seasons at age 39 or older...
(I won't list Bonds)
Mays .907 & .897
E Murray .891
Darrell Eveans .880
Jeff Kent .875
R Jackson .847
Now, why don't you provide a list of players since 1965 (not named Barry Bonds) that had over 1500 PAs from ages 35-37 and a better OPS?
Here, I'll do it for you:
1) Aaron 1.012
2) E Martinez .998
3) Gallarraga .974
Maybe Papi is something special.
Ages 36-37: same list, but add Manny Ramirez.
How about age just 37 and 600+ PAs?
1) Bonds 1.381
2) Martinez 1.002
3) Galarraga .991
4) Palmeiro .962
5) Ortiz .959
I am pointing out that the Ortiz that you have today, is not likely the same hitter that you are going to have next year (or beyond). All of these guys were barely hanging on by age 40, if they were even still playing baseball.
That's what I heard last year, and the year before, and the year before...
I'm not doubting that he will drop off soon, but even at 80% of his 2013 numbers, he's worth $15M in performance and fan draw.
If management wants to give him another 15 MM for the 2015 season (when he will be 39), then I think that is generous. Anything more than that is just foolish. How did Derek Jeter (the model of consistency) perform at age 39?
I would not give him $15M beyond 2015, but I might give him an incentive laden deal with a buyout.
I think that Ortiz is a wonderful player and has helped the Sox win 3 more World Championships than the Sox had for the first 27 years of my life. But after the 2014 season the Red Sox will have paid David Ortiz over $125,000,000. I think that they have already showed him the 'respect' and 'love' that he rightly deserved.
He's been underpaid almost every year.
Did anyone read his comments? Did it sound like he would be happy with 1 year tacked onto his current deal? It sounded to me like he wanted a 2-3 year extension or for ages: 39, 40 and possibly 41.
Of course he'd want 2-3 years added on. Of course he'd ask after a year like 2013 and a god-like WS, but I seriously doubt he's going to pout or cause trouble if we only give him 2015.
Again, if Ortiz wants to go for a 1 year extension, and BC is urged to make it happen, then fine. But then Ortiz will say the exact same thing in January 2015 that he said before and after the 2012 season and before this upcoming season.
So? Why wouldn't he? If he is performing well...
At some point in time, the Sox have part ways with Ortiz. Isn't it better to do that a year too early, versus 1, 2, or 3 years too late?
Some were saying 2013 should have been that "year too early". Few were even saying 2012 and 2011.
The witch hunt continues.