While most of the board focus is on pitching injuries and depth, perhaps the most telling factor in Boston's PO chances may end up being who they will likely play in the first PO round.

Tigers/Rangers are neck and neck for best record. If Boston ends up the WC winner, and the Tigers beat out TX for best record, NY plays TX and we get the Tigers. Me? I'd rather face the Tigers.

Home advantage aside (and Boston has one of the best road records in baseball), if NY wins the division...they may wish otherwise. They could end up playing the stronger team.

Current standings:

Tigers:    89 WINS  64 LOSSES
Rangers: 88 WINS  65 LOSSES

That is an interesting point.... however speaking as a fan I have found whenever I really hope my team gets toplay one team instead of another, my team ends up losing to the team I would have preferred to play...it's fan superstition but I have stopped pulling for one team or another as an opponent. The truth is, when it comes to playoff baseball...you just never know.

I'd take the Tigers in a heartbeat. I think the Rangers are always a potential nightmare waiting to happen. I love Verlander, and think he's an incredible pitcher (and, yes, he should be among the MVP voting as the Cy Young is a different award), but I'm never comfortable when the Sox play Texas. Even if he pitches two games, will he be as good in the second game? And are the other pitchers on the Tigers that big of a deal?

I agree, Kim. Verlander can win both games and the Tigers could still lose the series. If Verlander pitches a 2nd game on short rest, especially if it's at Fenway, I doubt he'll be as tough as he would be in Detroit on normal rest.

And I also like Boston's chances against NY in a possible 2nd round.
TX is the only A. L. team that I'm hoping somebody else will face.

I'm I crazy to say that I fear facing CJ Wilson twice more than I do Verlander?

I just have the feeling that Wilson owns us, knows he owns us and will continue to own us in the postseason.  I know Verlander is the better pitcher, but I'm going with my gut on this one. 

Either way, both teams are World Series threats.  The Tigers have the better pitching overall with a weaker lineup.  The Rangers don't really have anything after Wilson but have one of the top lineups in the game.

Still I agree with the OP, give me the Tigers (but not by much).

Ranger's pitching numbers are skewed by playing in a launching pad. They have a great road staff, which should tell you about their depth. I doubt any pitching staff would fare well over 81 games in TX, despite playing the western teams.

Verlander is one terrific pitcher, but one pitcher does not a team make.
Sox match up better against the Tigers, as most will agree. I hope the Tigers keep on winning...

I agree.

But worth noting is that Detroit fans are almost certainly saying the exact same thing about the Sox, whose only healthy and competent starter is Jon Lester.  We think Beckett and Bedard will bounce back completely recovered from their ankle and knee problems, but we won't know it until we see them pitch effectively before the playoffs.  Detroit fans are also noting that the Yankees bullpen is much stronger than the Sox, that the Yankees lineup is tougher, that the Yankees are better at home than are the Sox, etc. 

So the Tigers and Rangers both have an incentive to finish with the better record, thereby avoiding the dreaded Yankees. 

cart before the horse;
i predict the SOX don't make the PO'S.

SO NONE OF THE ABOVE IS RELEVANT.

In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:

In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:

Doug Fister, who shut out the Red Sox over 5+ innings in a Seattle win at Fenway Park in April, is 4-1 with a 2.64 ERA since his trade to Detroit. Fister's season ERA stands at 3.14. In 56 starts over the past two seasons, Fister ranks 10th among American League starters in WAR*:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0

Justin Verlander ranks No. 1 and Max Scherzer No. 18 (the latter ahead of all Red Sox pitchers except Jon Lester).

This season alone, Fister ranks ahead of Lester, Josh Beckett and all Red Sox pitchers in the WAR ratings:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0

Columnist Dave Cameron at FanGraphs had this look at Fister:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/its-time-we-stop-underrating-doug-fister

By the way, the Angels trail the Rangers by only 2.5 games in the AL West.

* Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

It's still too early to count out the Angels, so if Rangers prevail.

Then in my mind it's a pickem proposition both the Tigers and Rangers have decent pitching and are 3-4 in Runs scored, not sure there's an advantage to playing either. Who we play in the first round in my mind isn't as important as how we play with a healthy Beckett & Lester, I like our chances against either. So if we are thinking about match-ups,maybe we  all might want to root hard for the Angels to overtake the Rangers, becasue they might have the better starting pitching, but aren't as stout offesively.

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Neither Texas or Detroit will be pushovers.    The pitching of the Tigers is underrated and manager Jim Leyland has experience.  The Rangers are the reigning AL champs.
Anybody beyond Beckett and Lester better bring their best to the mound.

In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:


The addition of Fister is one the reasons the Tigers have pulled away from Cleveland, in games started by Fister, he's 4-1 since being aquired and the team is 5-2. That said, Fister is solid but has also benefitted from pitching in two pitchers parks all year (Safeco & Comerica) his home ERA is 2.71 and his road ERA of 3.67 is still respectable...the only other stat that I see that might be a red flag is his 61% QS ratio...Which might explain his record, beyond just lack of run support? 8 of his 28 starts he surrendered at least 4 runs and his team lost all of them...He's a solid #3 type...Exactly why did the Mariner's trade him?

In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:


I'd suggest that if the Sox, Yanks, Tigers and Rangers all make it...every pitcher better bring their A game when they take the ball...

In Response to Over-looked & All-important:


Harness,

   a brand new rule is being considered by the commisioner's office ... and may be enacted this season, even this month.

    If losing teams,those with records of less than .500 (purposefully defined that way and clarity will be made shortly) have fans with a higher opinion of their team than winning teams, the ratio of positivity will be directly reflected in the standings.

   The number of fans are not considered as an issue because it is just natural to expect that losing teams (and another setting refers to small market teams) have as large a fan base, so the 1300 that watch the Marlins or Orioles in average attendance would possibly have a larger impact than the 37 to 55,000 that watch the Red Sox or Yanquis.

  Winning teams are defined as those who actually have winning records, not the opinion of the fans as to whether their team is/are "winners."  In fact, the better the winning record and the poorer the fan opinion, the greater the impact this rule will have on the standings.

   The rule is likely to be called the "Sheriff and Deputies" rule.

     There is certainly a contingency of like minded Yanqui fans, and so when those fans are duly named as a group, the overall rule name may change.




     In the American League East it could impact thusly:  (figures are imaginary)

    Team              W    L    Pct    FPR*  

1.  Baltimore       55   107    .340   .731

2.  Tampa Bay     87   75     .537   .699 

3.  New York      102   60     .629   .650

4.  Toronto         79    83    .488    .542

5.  Boston           99   63     .611   .357


   *Fan Positivity Ratio


  "It will be nice,"  the commisioner's office spokesperson said, "to have teams that are appreciated to enjoy the playoffs instead of teams that just win."

  The room full of baseball writers all agreed.  As long as baseball games could all be kept under an hour and 45 minutes, so they could meet their deadline while casually finishing their thoughts with a cigar and a few brews.  (Those hard working devils...)

In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:


Thanks for the data, Bean. Fister has allowed almost a hit an inning for the Tigers, giving up the longball 1/10 IP.
He has a 1.417 WHIP against Boston (5 RA in 12 IP - 2 ER).

I like our chances against him.

Hill: I don't put much weight on WAR. Especially a short sample from a guy who has only won 22-23% of his career starts.

The AL Central just isn't very good.  It's the Tigers and then 3 mediocre teams and 1 bad team

In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:


The Whitesox are better than their record indicates, but I agree with you overall.
Huge class difference between the East and the central in the unbalanced schedule.

The Tigers are where they are because they are the only team in their division able to dominate their division. They are 34-30 against the East/West, incl 1-5 against Boston.

In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:

That "short sample" covers Doug Fister's last 56 starts ... as some folks start to take notice ... columnist Dave Cameron at FanGraphs has:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/its-time-we-stop-underrating-doug-fister/

In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:


Here are those 56 starts: 361 IP  369 H  145 ER 3.62 ERA 1.208 WHIP
Most of this came pitching in the greatest pitching venue in the A.L.
He will be facing much tougher competition in October.

Sorry Hill, I just don't see what UR seeing with this kid. He's improved, but
he doesn't scare me in the least.

Doug Fister is a very decent pitcher, surely he has a good chance to win a play-off game against us, especially when Wake or Lackey gives up 8 runs.

Fister is 16-31 3.69 ERA pitching in pitcher venues.
Is that UR idea of "very decent"?

Yes it is, the worst offense in baseball. Unlike Lackey he dis not have the luxury of his team scoring 8 runs a game... get with it and stop being so ludicrous towards other teams players.