Over-looked & All-important

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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    Ludicrous towards other team players? Read what I said about Verlander.
    Fister's 3.69 ERA (3.81 in Seattle) translates a hell of a lot higher pitching half his games in Fenway. Try seeing it true. If he pitched in Boston, he'd be included in UR lame #5 starters thread.
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    No he would not, he would be a solid #4. By the way are we playing in Fenway against the Jays?
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]No he would not, he would be a solid #4. By the way are we playing in Fenway against the Jays?
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]


    Fister in the 4 best hitter parks in the A.L. (Boston/NY/TX/Toronto):
    36.3 IP  40 H  18 ER  4.42 ERA  1.393 WHIP
    To draw an analogy:
    Wake career: 4.42 ERA  1.338 WHIP
    (This year: 5.03 ERA  1.325 WHIP)

    He would be seen in the same light as Wake, a perceived #6 starter for Boston. At the same time, Wake would be seen differently playing in a pitcher's park...against lesser competition.
    Now you know why I have to keep repeating venue-related data.

    Yes, the Sox are playing in Toronto, a dinger park.
    They had a 4.55 ERA this series. 35.6 IP  29 H  18 ER

    The reason for optimism: In the games Beckett/Lester pitched:
    19.6 IP  10 hits  1 ER

    Wake/Miller aren't likely to be starting any games in the post season.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important : Fister in the 4 best hitter parks in the A.L. (Boston/NY/TX/Toronto): 36.3 IP  40 H  18 ER  4.42 ERA  1.393 WHIP To draw an analogy: Wake career: 4.42 ERA  1.338 WHIP (This year: 5.03 ERA  1.325 WHIP) He would be seen in the same light as Wake, a perceived #6 starter for Boston.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    WAR takes into account the differences in the parks.

    When Tim Wakefield pitches at Fenway Park, the knuckleballer is not facing the Red Sox lineup. Still, the last time Doug Fister pitched at Fenway Park, the tall righthander shut out the Red Sox over 5+ innings in a Seattle win in April.

    ERA+, which also takes venue differences into account, has Fister at 123 this season and Wakefield at 84. There is no comparison.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important : Here are those 56 starts: 361 IP  369 H  145 ER  3.62 ERA 1.208 WHIP Most of this came pitching in the greatest pitching venue in the A.L. He will be facing much tougher competition in October. Sorry Hill , I just don't see what UR seeing with this kid. He's improved, but he doesn't scare me in the least.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    This season Doug Fister is 1-5 with a 3.39 ERA against teams with losing records and 6-8 with a 3.02 ERA against teams with a .500 record or above:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=fistedo01&year=2011&t=p

    Fister has an ERA of 0.00 this season against the Red Sox, 3.86 against the Yankees and 3.68 against the Rangers. As points of reference, Jon Lester has a 4.30 ERA against the Yankees and an 8.44 ERA against the Rangers. Josh Beckett has a 1.85 ERA against the Yankees and a 1.50 ERA against the Rangers.
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important : That "short sample" covers Doug Fister's last 56 starts ... as some folks start to take notice ... columnist Dave Cameron at FanGraphs has: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/its-time-we-stop-underrating-doug-fister/
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    hill55,
    you're the resident WAR expert or at least a guy that seems to support the data my question is how do they arrive at Fister who's 7-13 with a 4.5 WAR as being more valuable than Ian Kennedy who's 19-4 with a 4.2 WAR?...Kennedy has 12 more wins, many of his other stats are equal or better and he's pitched in perhaps the best hitters park in the NL? Curiuos if they're AL VS NL factor?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important : hill55, you're the resident WAR expert or at least a guy that seems to support the data my question is how do they arrive at Fister who's 7-13 with a 4.5 WAR as being more valuable than Ian Kennedy who's 19-4 with a 4.2 WAR?...Kennedy has 12 more wins, many of his other stats are equal or better and he's pitched in perhaps the best hitters park in the NL? Curiuos if they're AL VS NL factor?
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]
    I don't claim to be an expert in anything but I am interested in WAR because it at least attempts to incorporate many factors. Different sites calculate WAR differently: Baseball Reference has Ian Kennedy at 4.9 WAR this season while listing Doug Fister at 4.2:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kenneia01.shtml

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fistedo01.shtml

    It's not a statistical error; it's a labeling error. One site should find a new label for its statistic and cede the WAR label to the other site.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-WAR?urn=mlb-211211
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important : This season Doug Fister is 1-5 with a 3.39 ERA against teams with losing records and 6-8 with a 3.02 ERA against teams with a .500 record or above: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=fistedo01&year=2011&t=p Fister has an ERA of 0.00 this season against the Red Sox, 3.86 against the Yankees and 3.68 against the Rangers. As points of reference, Jon Lester has a 4.30 ERA against the Yankees and an 8.44 ERA against the Rangers. Josh Beckett has a 1.85 ERA against the Yankees and a 1.50 ERA against the Rangers.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Hill, we weigh Fister's legitimacy differently. You are using ridiculously short samples.

    I've seen some pretty ludicrous WAR stats, like Lackey's over Buchholz's last year.
    And I don't put much credence into "teams over .500". It's reflective of divisional strength and the unbalanced schedule.

    I do feel venue is very important, and I did much research (8 years worth) on the FENWAY FACTOR: The GREAT DISTORTION thread to validate it.
    Sorry, but I don't think WAR's adjustments to park are very accurate, especially regarding the older parks like Wrigley and Fenway.

    Fister has a career 4.42 ERA/1.393 WHIP in the league's major hitting venues.(TX/BS/NY/Toronto). His short sample sizes against NY/Boston this year total 12+ IP. Hardly conclusive. Let these teams see him as often as they do Lester or Beckett and then we'll talk.

    Career: Lester in NY/TX/Toronto: 3.13 ERA 1.109 WHIP

    Fister vs. league's top teams (BS/NY/TX):
    81 IP  92 H  40 ER  4.45 ERA  1.333 WHIP career numbers

    Lester vs. league's top teams (NY/TX):
    151 IP  143 H  59 ER  3.52 ERA  1.298 WHIP career numbers

    Fister has pitched well for the Tigers, but let's keep in mind who he's faced:
    Indians
    Royals
    Rays
    Indians
    O's
    Indians
    TX

    The Rays are legit but their line-up isn't.
    Only one team here is a likely PO team: Texas. And that game was in Detroit.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important : Hill , we weigh Fister's legitimacy differently. You are using ridiculously short samples. I've seen some pretty ludicrous WAR stats, like Lackey's over Buchholz's last year. And I don't put much credence into "teams over .500". It's reflective of divisional strength and the unbalanced schedule. I do feel venue is very important, and I did much research (8 years worth) on the FENWAY FACTOR: The GREAT DISTORTION thread to validate it. Sorry, but I don't think WAR's adjustments to park are very accurate, especially regarding the older parks like Wrigley and Fenway. Fister has a career 4.42 ERA/1.393 WHIP in the league's major hitting venues. (TX/BS/NY/Toronto). His short sample sizes against NY/Boston this year total 12+ IP. Hardly conclusive. Let these teams see him as often as they do Lester or Beckett and then we'll talk. Career: Lester in NY/TX/Toronto: 3.13 ERA 1.109 WHIP Fister vs. league's top teams (BS/NY/TX): 81 IP  92 H  40 ER  4.45 ERA  1.333 WHIP career numbers Lester vs. league's top teams (NY/TX): 151 IP  143 H  59 ER  3.52 ERA  1.298 WHIP career numbers Fister has pitched well for the Tigers, but let's keep in mind who he's faced: Indians Royals Rays Indians O's Indians TX The Rays are legit but their line-up isn't. Only one team here is a likely PO team: Texas. And that game was in Detroit .
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
    I joined this discussion after you wrote: "Verlander is one terrific pitcher, but one pitcher does not a team make." Your numbers -- and my numbers -- confirm that the Tigers have more than one pitcher.

    I joined the discussion by offering the sizeable sample of Doug Fister's last 56 starts. Now you write: " Fister has a career 4.42 ERA/1.393 WHIP in the league's major hitting venues" without offering the small sample size of 36.1 innings covering six starts at those four venues. Here is the breakdown:

    9.64 (1 GS, 4.2 IP) -- Ballpark at Arlington
    1.50 (2 GS, 12 IP) -- Fenway Park
    3.86 (1 GS, 7 IP) -- Yankee Stadium
    5.68 (2 GS, 12.2 IP) -- Rogers Centre  

    Reduce the sample size by only the 4.2 innings at Texas*, then Fister has a career ERA of 3.70 in five starts at your so-called "major hitting venues" of the American League East (against some heavy-hitting teams).

    Detroit indeed has more than one pitcher.

    * as a sidenote, Fister almost certainly will not face Texas in the American League Divisional Series, although the righthander could face the Rangers in the AL Championship Series.
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    Interesting but a practical no name goes a full 9... you know the type of thing you deemed obsolete?  a COMPLETE GAME.
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    OP update: Tigers: 82 - 62
                    Texas:  82 - 63

    With Beckett/Buch/Bedard, the 3 B's, out of action and the team on a 3-game downer, no ground has been lost to NY.
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    I hope they make it to the playoffs, I do not care who they get to play with, as long as they can make the PO's they get a chance to compete. Their chances of getting to playoffs is 50:50. This team sucks for a few weeks now. I have an advice for all of you; "stop dreaming about playoffs" because you are not doing any good to the team. Sports media playing us all into this and players seem to play into this as well. Take one game at a time and win games or else there is NO PLAYOFFS!!!
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important : I joined this discussion after you wrote: "Verlander is one terrific pitcher, but one pitcher does not a team make." Your numbers -- and my numbers -- confirm that the Tigers have more than one pitcher. I joined the discussion by offering the sizeable sample of Doug Fister's last 56 starts. Now you write: " Fister has a career 4.42 ERA/1.393 WHIP in the league's major hitting venues" without offering the small sample size of 36.1 innings covering six starts at those four venues. Here is the breakdown: 9.64 (1 GS, 4.2 IP) -- Ballpark at Arlington 1.50 (2 GS, 12 IP) -- Fenway Park 3.86 (1 GS, 7 IP) -- Yankee Stadium 5.68 (2 GS, 12.2 IP) -- Rogers Centre   Reduce the sample size by only the 4.2 innings at Texas*, then Fister has a career ERA of 3.70 in five starts at your so-called "major hitting venues" of the American League East (against some heavy-hitting teams). Detroit indeed has more than one pitcher. * as a sidenote, Fister almost certainly will not face Texas in the American League Divisional Series, although the righthander could face the Rangers in the AL Championship Series.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Anything can be added or removed, ahhh, I mean reduced Hill.
    40 IP is a better sample than 12.3 IP, which you used for making UR case for Fister this season.

    If you noted, I used 81 IP to show how Fister does against the likely PO teams. That is what this discussion is really all about: How the Tiger's staff, beyond Verlander, will fare against PO teams. Fister is likely to get a PO start. It could be the pivotal game. His ERA against likely PO competition this year is 4.45.
    That is the number with the most relevance, as it covers the greatest sample size.

    I really don't fear facing a pitcher carrying that into a PO atmosphere given the  importance of the game.

    I do have concerns playing TX.
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    Wakefield makes Fister look like the greatest pitcher in baseball history.
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    Some team facts - Sox are 4-6 against Rangers this year and Yankees are 7-2 against the Rangers.  Sox are 5-1 against the Tigers and the Yankees are 3-4 vs the Tigers.  So it would appear that the opinion of the board posters would be in total agreement with the opinion of the assumed teams in the playoffs -  Sox and Yanks.
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    Current update:
    Tigers: 84-62.
    Rangers: 83-64.

    If the season ended today:
    NY vs. TX.
    Boston vs. Tigers.

    Current pitching injuries are unfortunate and hopefully very temporary.
    Winning the division may end up being counter-productive for Boston.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    great winners mentality harness. For all your quitter and coward talk here you clearly state it: The team would be better served to finish 2nd.

    some die-hard competitor you are,
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    The Angels might just win the AL West Division Title and upset all the calculations here so far.
     
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]great winners mentality harness. For all your quitter and coward talk here you clearly state it: The team would be better served to finish 2nd. some die-hard competitor you are,
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    You are incredibly stupid.
    This thread is about having the advantage of playing the Tigers over TX.
    Winning the division may very well negate that advantage.

    Idiot!
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important




    quitter
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    Burrito the idiot.
    He'd rather face TX than Detroit.
    Duly noted.
     
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    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]The Angels might just win the AL West Division Title and upset all the calculations here so far.  
    Posted by legion12941[/QUOTE]

    The Angels are 2 & 1/2 back of TX..
    The Rays are 3 & 1/2 back of a possible WC birth.
    Both teams are running out of time.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    I'd rather face Detroit... Verlander might be good but even Pedro Martinez could not carry the Sox to a title alone. 

    To ad, regardless of opponent I'd rather win the division. No reason to disregard the division title as meaningless. 
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]I'd rather face Detroit... Verlander might be good but even Pedro Martinez could not carry the Sox to a title alone.  To ad, regardless of opponent I'd rather win the division. No reason to disregard the division title as meaningless. 
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    Then you must realize that winning the division at this point means the winner faces the Tigers. I never said winning the division is meaningless. I'm looking at the realities.
    1) Winning it might increase the chances of an early exit.
    2) We are now as far back of NY as Tampa is of us. The chances of each team over-coming their deficit is now equal. Didn't you say the odds still heavily favor Boston over Tampa?

    Now explain to me how acknowledging the realities and hoping for the best possible match-up constitutes "quitting".
     
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    Re: Over-looked & All-important

    In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Over-looked & All-important : Then you must realize that winning the division at this point means  the winner  faces the Tigers. I never said winning the division is meaningless. I'm looking at the realities. 1) Winning it might increase the chances of an early exit. 2) We are now as far back of NY as Tampa is of us. The chances of each team over-coming their deficit is now equal. Didn't you say the odds still heavily favor Boston over Tampa? Now explain to me how acknowledging the realities and hoping for the best possible match-up constitutes "quitting".
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Good point. Also, IMO I'd rather finish in the PO position that avoids Detroit as an opponent. The prospect of facing Verlander in Games 1 & 5 (or even 4) is the reason. Also, they're hot right now. And, according to Nurse Gammons, both Tex and Det are tough opponents, and are clearly capable of winning the 1st Round, without it even being considered an upset.

     
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