Papelbon = "a mirage" & "luck was sky high"

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Papelbon is still a decent closer, but he is not what he used to be. 

    He was very dominating from 2006 to 2008:

    2006 0.776 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 , 5.77 K/BB 

    2007 0.771 WHIP, 13.0 K/9, 5.60 K/BB

    2008 0.952 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 9.63 K/BB

    Then he had a pretty good 2001 (0.933/12.2/8.70), but his numbers with Philly dropped even more sinc ehis dropoff his last 3 years with the Sox.

    Here's a look at some chosen sample sizes:

    '06-'08: 196 IP  0.84 WHIP  1.70 ERA  10.8 K/9   1.6 BB/9

    '09-'11: 199 IP  1.12 WHIP  2.89 ERA  10.8 K/9   2.8 BB/9

    '12-'13: 132 IP  1.09 WHIP  2.67 ERA  10.2 K/9   2.0 BB/9

     

    Papelbon seems to be getting the handle on pitching vs throwing, but I doubt he ever comes close to his 2006-2008 dominance again. Remember, there is no DH in the NL, so his numbers could be adjusted for that.

     



    It's interesting to note that his "drop" coincides with the more stringent testing implemented by MLB after the 2007 season...a phenomenon that is not exclusive to Papelbon.



    There's no pattern for Paps.  Thru 2011, he had a 2.33 ERA, a Whip of 1.018, and  K/W of 4.43.  In 2012, he had a 2.44, 1.057, and a 5.11.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    His 2013 WAR was a career low 1.0, and his 2012 WAR was his 3rd worst (1.4) and way worse than his 4th worst 2.2.

    I'd like to say it was a great decision by the Sox to let him go, but I don't think they had a choice.



    WAR is meaningless for closers, and RP in general.  Wakefield and Rivera have about the same career WAR.  Rivera's WAR over his last 4 seasons was a cumulative 6.1.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    OK so many believe Paps suks

    OK so how can he have more saves than Mariano at the same stage in his career  age 32==== 286 vs 243

    Then when you look at the career there is a very slight difference in overall numbers.

    BTW when Mariano turned 32 he went from 50 saves at 31 to 28

    RS fans would have run Mariano out of Boston because he went from 50 to 28 he11 if it was 40 they would have.

    Paps has aveveraged 33 saves a year low being 29. If he does 33 over 11 yrs he will be 3 behind Mariano's total.

    In Mariano's last 11 years he averaged 40 saves using ONE pitch.

    I have said this since Paps left the the closer spot on the RS would be an issue for 5+ years. We got damn lucky last year Koji came thru as NO ONE expected.

    Who is the closer next year?????

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    I am a little tired of the Papelbon bashing as well. Consistent closers over a period of even 4 to 5 years is hard to find. That makes it a commodity. Then the Sox find Koji and it's lightning in a bottle. The greatest whatever percentage of a year by a reliever-closer in MLB history and a WS title (what Schiraldi was trying to be sort of in late 86, but went to pieces). Papelbon, Foulke and Uehara are all WS Sox closers. They get my Fenway free pass forever. Bashing great Sox players post-Sox just reeks of disrespect. Papelbon's mouth is what it is (think Tim Thomas and some of the stuff out of his mouth).

    I am happy when he does well for Philly, or whatever team he ends up with. He earned his keep in Boston and did his job well. Ellsbury did too and you can bet it will be open season on Jacoby next year. Moon is right, Paps started losing velocity and it created problems as he over-relied on the fastball in some key blown saves, failing to show confidence in his splitter. Bottom line, Sox won without the whiz kid at SS (the veteran showing superb to fantastic defense), without the stalwart vet at closer (see Koji), without Beltre at 3b (talk about a strung together platoon culminating with Xander), without a big power hitter in LF (instead the opportunistic righty, and the consistent under-rated lefty), and without Tito at manager. Everything discussed on this board going into 2014 is going to be a underwhelming, not up to par, and not match the excitement or wonder or impressive under-dog ability of the Sox of 2013. I was guilty of not following them as much as I had in the past, truly jilted badly by the 2012 version. I didn't even think players would sign with the Sox let alone come together to win a championship. How do you top 2013? I just don't think you can.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    I just couldnt see paying 13 mil or whatever god-awful sum the Phillies signed him for for a guy who pitched about 50 innings a year. Joey, your loyalty to all players Sox is admirable but Paps was LUCKY as well as good throughout his tenure with the Sox. The number of dirty v clean innings in his latter years was always troubling - as was his velocity decline. If my memory serves me, most were OK with letting him walk because we had Bard anyhow. Things change quickly in baseball and one thing Ben does do well is adapt. Last time I checked we really didnt have a dominant-type closer this title year. Koji was magic buy not typical closer. This is the most overrated position in all of baseball. When Koji's 89 mph doesnt fool anyone next year, we will find someone else and save 15 mil. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    His 2013 WAR was a career low 1.0, and his 2012 WAR was his 3rd worst (1.4) and way worse than his 4th worst 2.2.

    I'd like to say it was a great decision by the Sox to let him go, but I don't think they had a choice.



    WAR? Really?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    his final game the last 2 years he was in Boston = he had to go.  i wish him well but in no way think he should still be on the Sox no matter what the contract.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ergoetal. Show Ergoetal's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    "He got a smell of himself" is what the Irish say, once he turned that "look" over the glove into a trademark.

    All downhill from there.

     

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    OK so many believe Paps suks

    OK so how can he have more saves than Mariano at the same stage in his career  age 32==== 286 vs 243

    Then when you look at the career there is a very slight difference in overall numbers.

    BTW when Mariano turned 32 he went from 50 saves at 31 to 28

    RS fans would have run Mariano out of Boston because he went from 50 to 28 he11 if it was 40 they would have.

    Paps has aveveraged 33 saves a year low being 29. If he does 33 over 11 yrs he will be 3 behind Mariano's total.

    In Mariano's last 11 years he averaged 40 saves using ONE pitch.

    I have said this since Paps left the the closer spot on the RS would be an issue for 5+ years. We got damn lucky last year Koji came thru as NO ONE expected.

    Who is the closer next year?????




    So why haven't the bashers commented on the facts? If Mariano got 15 mil why wasn't Paps worth $13 no other has been as consistent

    Marmol and Soriano got 11 mil?????

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    OK so many believe Paps suks

    OK so how can he have more saves than Mariano at the same stage in his career  age 32==== 286 vs 243

    Then when you look at the career there is a very slight difference in overall numbers.

    BTW when Mariano turned 32 he went from 50 saves at 31 to 28

    RS fans would have run Mariano out of Boston because he went from 50 to 28 he11 if it was 40 they would have.

    Paps has aveveraged 33 saves a year low being 29. If he does 33 over 11 yrs he will be 3 behind Mariano's total.

    In Mariano's last 11 years he averaged 40 saves using ONE pitch.

    I have said this since Paps left the the closer spot on the RS would be an issue for 5+ years. We got damn lucky last year Koji came thru as NO ONE expected.

    Who is the closer next year?????




    So why haven't the bashers commented on the facts? If Mariano got 15 mil why wasn't Paps worth $13 no other has been as consistent

    Marmol and Soriano got 11 mil?????

     



    for me, it wasn't so much the AAV as it was the length of the contract.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    I can hear the crickets have nothing to say once given the facts About Paps.

    Something any person should do before stating their beliefs about players is check the stats to see that your beliefs actually are supported by the numbers. you may not like the length of a contract but the $$$$$ were in line with others of lesser consistentcy in the closer roll. Everything points out that 13 mil was not out of line in any way.

    I'd take him back at that number

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to SoxFanInIL's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Papelbon's still an effective closer, just not dominant. Live by the fastball, die by the fastball...

    Yup.  I think the mistake the writers are making is over-exagerrate Paps' demise.  I guess that's the way it goes.  It seems like players have to be overrated or under-rated.  It doesn't seem like players are ever just 'okay', either in the press or in here.



    True, but given the contract he signed, Philly didn't bring him in to just be OK. And, all the hand-wringing about not topping Philly's contract to keep him here wasn't for an OK closer. I think.



    Yes and no.  He has good stats with Philly, with a 2.67 and 67 saves.  Part of this, and I've said this before about other FAs, sounds like Philly expects Paps to over-deliver, since they overpaid.  Just like ARod, Pujols, and a whole bunch of other contracts.  

    They're perfectly priced contracts, assuming the player will never get older.



    Truer words were never written on this board! And now, for the most part, the anti-aging magic has been removed from the game, making all these guys human again. The guys writing the contracts have to adjust to the new era.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    I can hear the crickets have nothing to say once given the facts About Paps.

    Something any person should do before stating their beliefs about players is check the stats to see that your beliefs actually are supported by the numbers. you may not like the length of a contract but the $$$$$ were in line with others of lesser consistentcy in the closer roll. Everything points out that 13 mil was not out of line in any way.

    I'd take him back at that number



    Really? Didnt the past season just show you how irrelevent paps was in terms of team success? no one wants this guy back save for you and a few others who pine in nostaligia for 2007....heck Jim maybe we can get Youk and beckett back too...???

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to georom4's comment:

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    I can hear the crickets have nothing to say once given the facts About Paps.

    Something any person should do before stating their beliefs about players is check the stats to see that your beliefs actually are supported by the numbers. you may not like the length of a contract but the $$$$$ were in line with others of lesser consistentcy in the closer roll. Everything points out that 13 mil was not out of line in any way.

    I'd take him back at that number



    Really? Didnt the past season just show you how irrelevent paps was in terms of team success? no one wants this guy back save for you and a few others who pine in nostaligia for 2007....heck Jim maybe we can get Youk and beckett back too...???



    You are disregarding his consistency and over valuing Koji's success. At his age it is doubtful he will be as successful this year. Whereas Pap has been consistently. Successful despite a slightly off year. His numbers support his continued success where as Koji's do not.  we were lucky last year and since Pap left have not had a reliable closermplain and simple.

    Your comment about the others is just foolish drivel and does not affect me since it is a stupid comment just added to pull a person into a dumb rant.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    OK so many believe Paps suks

    OK so how can he have more saves than Mariano at the same stage in his career  age 32==== 286 vs 243

    Then when you look at the career there is a very slight difference in overall numbers.

    BTW when Mariano turned 32 he went from 50 saves at 31 to 28

    RS fans would have run Mariano out of Boston because he went from 50 to 28 he11 if it was 40 they would have.

    Paps has aveveraged 33 saves a year low being 29. If he does 33 over 11 yrs he will be 3 behind Mariano's total.

    In Mariano's last 11 years he averaged 40 saves using ONE pitch.

    I have said this since Paps left the the closer spot on the RS would be an issue for 5+ years. We got damn lucky last year Koji came thru as NO ONE expected.

    Who is the closer next year?????




    So why haven't the bashers commented on the facts? If Mariano got 15 mil why wasn't Paps worth $13 no other has been as consistent

    Marmol and Soriano got 11 mil?????

     



    I am not a basher.

    I just wouldn't pay 13 million a year for a closer. It isn't worth it.

    You bringing up the best closer in history as an example of why long term contracts for closers are a good idea doesn't hold much water.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    I believe the biggest contract Rivera had was for 3 years and 45 million.  If Papelbon hits his vesting option, his contract will be for 5 years and 63 million.  So the comparison does actually show that Paps' contract was just too big.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I believe the biggest contract Rivera had was for 3 years and 45 million.  If Papelbon hits his vesting option, his contract will be for 5 years and 63 million.  So the comparison does actually show that Paps' contract was just too big.

    BINGO  !!!!   Outpriced himself !!


     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I believe the biggest contract Rivera had was for 3 years and 45 million.  If Papelbon hits his vesting option, his contract will be for 5 years and 63 million.  So the comparison does actually show that Paps' contract was just too big.


    NO IT DOES NOT as you are cherry picking numbers.

    Mariano got 15 mil at the end of his career and if you take it out over 5 years (which was 07 to 12) it is 75 mil for 5 years which makes (Paps 12 million less for the 5 years of his contract) look like a bargain.

    BTW so do the other contracts for mediocre closers who have gotten 8 to 11 million with far less success.

    Bill that is a bingo to out do your bingo he was and is not over priced.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    I believe the biggest contract Rivera had was for 3 years and 45 million.  If Papelbon hits his vesting option, his contract will be for 5 years and 63 million.  So the comparison does actually show that Paps' contract was just too big.

     


    NO IT DOES NOT as you are cherry picking numbers.

    Mariano got 15 mil at the end of his career and if you take it out over 5 years (which was 07 to 12) it is 75 mil for 5 years which makes (Paps 12 million less for the 5 years of his contract) look like a bargain.

     

    BTW so do the other contracts for mediocre closers who have gotten 8 to 11 million with far less success.

    Bill that is a bingo to out do your bingo he was and is not over priced.



    Again, Jim, it's not the annual salary, which is in line with what it should be.  It's the years.  No other reliever has gotten a contract anywhere near 63 million. 

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    One stat not brought to this forum is blown saves which from what little I recall of reading of the Phillies this past year is that Paps had quite a few blown saves in 2013. Anyone know where to dig up the stats on this one. 

    Hetch

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    Papelbon has been one of the best closers in the game for seven years. When he left Boston, many posters lost their objectivity. He became fair game for the bashers. That is a pattern that we have seen before and will see again. It does appear that his velocity is declining. Don't know if he can get it back. He can still get the job done. I saw two or three of his blown saves this year, and to say that the defense behind him was atrocious would be an understatement. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

    So why haven't the bashers commented on the facts? If Mariano got 15 mil why wasn't Paps worth $13 no other has been as consistent

    Marmol and Soriano got 11 mil?????

     

    I am a big Paps fan, and I would have loved for the Sox to re-sign him.  However, the contract that he received from the Phillies was ridiculous.  Personally, I think it's kind of crazy to pay a closer $10 mil plus per year, especially for anything longer than 3 years, and even that is too much.  I would rather spend the money elsewhere.

    That said, if Mariano got $15 mil and Marmol and Soriano got $11 mil, then Paps certainly deserved $13 mil.

    That said, I am very glad that it wasn't the Sox who paid him that much, and my opinion has nothing to do with bashing Papelbon.  I just think there are better ways to spend the money.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

    One stat not brought to this forum is blown saves which from what little I recall of reading of the Phillies this past year is that Paps had quite a few blown saves in 2013. Anyone know where to dig up the stats on this one. 

    Hetch



    http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6373/jonathan-papelbon

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    One stat not brought to this forum is blown saves which from what little I recall of reading of the Phillies this past year is that Paps had quite a few blown saves in 2013. Anyone know where to dig up the stats on this one. 

    Hetch

    [/QUOTE]

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6373/jonathan-papelbon

    [/QUOTE]

    Pumpsie, 

    Thank you for the source.

    I guess my next questionis Paps appeared in 61 games for the Phillies who obviously were a lousy team last year and he had 7 blown saves or about one blown save every ten appearances. It seems like quite a few blown saves just in bringing up seven per season, but if he is only losing one in ten that seems pretty solid. What is acceptable or what do ball clubs think is reasonable, and do we fans think that seven blown saves per year is unacceptable. Salary aside, if it is then are we holding a top flight closer to too high a standard.

    Thoughts please,

    Hetch 

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Papelbon =

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

    Pumpsie, 

    Thank you for the source.

    I guess my next questionis Paps appeared in 61 games for the Phillies who obviously were a lousy team last year and he had 7 blown saves or about one blown save every ten appearances. It seems like quite a few blown saves just in bringing up seven per season, but if he is only losing one in ten that seems pretty solid. What is acceptable or what do ball clubs think is reasonable, and do we fans think that seven blown saves per year is unacceptable. If it is then are we holding a top flight closer to too high a standard.

    Thoughts please,

    Hetch 



    He had 61 appearances, but only 36 of those were save opportunities.  So he was 29 for 36 in saves, or 80.6%.  That's well below his career average which is close to 90%, a very good %.  80.6% is mediocre at best. 

     
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