Papelbon worth every cent

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    ....I wish I had intimate knowledge of players' motivations.....
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from AZPAT. Show AZPAT's posts

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    In Response to Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]Possibly more, but too early to tell. -8 for 8 in saves -0.90 ERA -0.90 WHIP -6 hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks in 10-1/3 And before people go the "But Phillies are below .500" route, understand they've been without BOTH Utley and Howard, and will get both back at some point. Aside from very early on, Pap has had no injury concerns, and has been an elite close for many years. They are rare. The Sox grew one, and let him walk. At 31, I doubt I'll ever see the farm produce another closer of his level. Of course Hindsight is 20/20, but how can the Sox have been so wrong, on so many FA decisions; both who comes AND who goes?
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]

    HMMMM.... LET'S SEE...... 4-1 K/BB ratio, 19 losses, 28 Blown Saves, 2.25+ ERA as a closer..... But, don't get blinded by the facts. The guy had a big problem with keeping the other team off the bases! Then there's the 27 HR's he gave up AS A CLOSER! Sorry, but that's not good. Need I remind you of how an ERA is determined, and it has NITHING to do with the proceding pitcher's players he LOB? Come into the game with a runner on, give up a walk then a three run shot.... Not good.

    Don't know where the "the team's under .500" comes from; he's got nothing to do with that. He comes into games in save situations.  He is still averaging a baserunner per game, before running the risk of giving up the yakker!

    I'll guarandamntee you that if he was 8-0 in save opps, and had an ERA under 1.00 (as a closer should), he'd still be in Boston.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent : I disagree spaceman.  The front office over paid for garbage free agents and had to skimp and save when our home grown closer deserved a pay day.  They couldn't afford Paps because they screwed up and Ben was put on a tight leash this winter.  I believe Paps will be closing after his current contract expires.  He has good mechanics and has a great mentality for closing
    Posted by Mchampion[/QUOTE]

    Fair enough.  I certainly agree that the F.O. whiffed and gave too many dollars and years to a couple guys they should not have.  And, no doubt Jonathan deserved a pay day.  But, even without the free agent overpays that stressed the Sox' bottom line, I wouldn't want Papelbon signed that long.  We shall see if, as you suggest, good mechanics can keep him pitching at a high level, but, without a drastic re-invention and move to primarily cutter or something other than fastball, i think the natural tapering off of velocity, already happening to him, is going to diminish his effectiveness within the next three years.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

     It's true that he used to blow hitters away with high heat but that wasn't happening any more, especially in the AL East. Last season if batters did swing at those pitches they could usually foul them off. Sometimes they even drilled them out of the park. Not having a reliable out-pitch he started to struggle. Maybe he'll have great success in the NL, but as he loses more velocity he'll really have to work on his other pitches. Don't know whether he'll be successful over the length of the contract but I wish him well. Seems as if the parting was one that both sides wanted. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

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    In Response to Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]Possibly more, but too early to tell. -8 for 8 in saves -0.90 ERA -0.90 WHIP -6 hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks in 10-1/3 And before people go the "But Phillies are below .500" route, understand they've been without BOTH Utley and Howard, and will get both back at some point. Aside from very early on, Pap has had no injury concerns, and has been an elite close for many years. They are rare. The Sox grew one, and let him walk. At 31, I doubt I'll ever see the farm produce another closer of his level. Of course Hindsight is 20/20, but how can the Sox have been so wrong, on so many FA decisions; both who comes AND who goes?
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]

    Paps first year in the NL doesn't exactly tell the whole tale.  He should have success until they start sitting on his fastball like all the good AL hitters did.  Considering most of the good hitters are now in the AL he may have new life for a bit.

    We couldn't afford to keep him and Papi around anyway.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    Do we play the Phillies this year? I bet that Pap vs. Papi with the game on the line would be must see tv.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]Do we play the Phillies this year? I bet that Pap vs. Papi with the game on the line would be must see tv.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    That would be interesting carnie, I'm not sure Pap would be throwing too many fastballs by his ex mates but I loved the fact he was always there for us and not on the DL.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    But if he had been a starter or a corner outfielder, they would have over spent to keep him.

    Why is long term worth so much more important for hometown free agents?  They are OK gambling on  players like Jenks, Bailey, Lackey, Crawford, Dice K, and Rentaria but don't even try to resign a player that has proven success in Boston.

    Fans shouldn't expect players to accept a hometown discount.  They should expect ownership to pay a premium for players that have proven they can play on the Boston stage.

    What's the old saying about 1 in the hand?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]But if he had been a starter or a corner outfielder, they would have over spent to keep him. Why is long term worth so much more important for hometown free agents?  They are OK gambling on  players like Jenks, Bailey, Lackey, Crawford, Dice K, and Rentaria but don't even try to resign a player that has proven success in Boston. Fans shouldn't expect players to accept a hometown discount.  They should expect ownership to pay a premium for players that have proven they can play on the Boston stage. What's the old saying about 1 in the hand?
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover[/QUOTE]

    You make a good point DW, Pap would probably still be here if Theo made better choices.   I'm still not sure Pap would have ever had the same success as hes having in the NL. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE] It's true that he used to blow hitters away with high heat but that wasn't happening any more, especially in the AL East. Last season if batters did swing at those pitches they could usually foul them off. Sometimes they even drilled them out of the park. Not having a reliable out-pitch he started to struggle. Maybe he'll have great success in the NL, but as he loses more velocity he'll really have to work on his other pitches. Don't know whether he'll be successful over the length of the contract but I wish him well. Seems as if the parting was one that both sides wanted. 
    Posted by trouts[/QUOTE]

    Did he really struggle all that much ? I mean , he only had three blown saves all last year.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]I agree.   The problem is the Red Sox mindset on the closing position.  The Sox feel anyone can close and still do.  Remember the closer by committee.  LMAO.  The other thing the Sox need to realize is everyone can't play in Boston.  When you have a guy who can handle Boston and has a proven track record in the AL east, you need to pay him and keep him on the team.  Forget free agents like Lackey, Crawford, etc.  They are not worth the money and never will be, I like the low cost guys like Ross, Aceves, etc...you can bring in a few and hit on one or two to go with your stars.  
    Posted by Mchampion[/QUOTE]

    I agree with you but the Red Sox wouldn't have given Papelbon the money that he got paid and I also don't believe that Papelbon wanted to stay in Boston.   He was one of my favorite Red Sox players and I will miss him.  
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mchampion. Show Mchampion's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent : I agree with you but the Red Sox wouldn't have given Papelbon the money that he got paid and I also don't believe that Papelbon wanted to stay in Boston.   He was one of my favorite Red Sox players and I will miss him.  
    Posted by susan250[/QUOTE]

    Susan Paps would have stayed if the Sox gave him the money.  He knew the Sox undervalued closers and wanted his due.  Can you blame him.  Sox go out and spend all out for garbage players yet they show their own players nothing.  Very poor way to run a business.  If I were Paps I would have left in a minute too.  The more I think about it the more I blame Theo for this team now and what a mess it is.  I hope Ben somehow makes some nice moves and gets this team sitting pretty again.   

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Papelbon worth every cent : 1 month into a 4-year contract....don't you think that's a bit premature to make a judgement?  Which other free agent departures do you regret?  I'd say the Sox have made pretty good judgements overall on departures.
    Posted by Chilliwings[/QUOTE]

    Most FAs are okay a few weeks into their contract.  It stands to reason that the team has cleared the guy medically, so he should be okay for a while.

    Just for funnsies-

    Zito had 3.65 for 7 games:  SFG had agita for 7 years.

    Hampton likewise had 7 good games, followed by an era known as the Lost Decade in CO.

    In his first 4 weeks into his contract, Wells had an OPS of .971.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent : Most FAs are okay a few weeks into their contract.  It stands to reason that the team has cleared the guy medically, so he should be okay for a while. Just for funnsies- Zito had 3.65 for 7 games:  SFG had agita for 7 years. Hampton likewise had 7 good games, followed by an era known as the Lost Decade in CO. In his first 4 weeks into his contract, Wells had an OPS of .971.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    Don't forget the outstanding first four weeks of CC's career with Sox. I mean outstanding first four minutes. Ok, he sucked from the get go.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    " You may be right but this conversation has to happen three years from now.  Not on May 1."

    Yup - and several posters on this thread have used the phrase "we let him go." 

    I'm not clear on that, Pap's agent never talked to the Sox. So how is it that we let him go? 

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    Papelbon will never come close to be worth what he is paid.  It's not through any fault of his own - it's how he is used.   Of his eight saves, four are three run saves.  Only one is a one run save.  How valuable is a guy who could have an ERA of 10 right now, and still have saved all eight games?  Also, the Phillies have so many horses on their staff - how valuable is a guy who can close out the ninth if you have Halladay or Lee or Hamels shutting a team down through eight?  He really just comes in for the sake of the save. How many outcomes does he really change?  Last year, Ryan Madson didn't blow his first save for the Phillies until June.  Madson is what I would consider average, while Papelbon is elite.  How many wins would the Phillies have had last year with Papelbon?  103?  104?  What's the difference?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    so we had him and still ended up in 3rd place the past two years....get it thru your thick skulls...NO 60 INNINGS A YEAR PITCHER IS WORTH 15 MIL A YR...GOT IT? GOOD!

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]so we had him and still ended up in 3rd place the past two years....get it thru your thick skulls...NO 60 INNINGS A YEAR PITCHER IS WORTH 15 MIL A YR...GOT IT? GOOD!
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    There are a lot of good posts on this thread explaining why giving Paps that money would have been a horrible idea, but you sum it nicely, Georom...
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    The market determines a player's worth. Obviously the Phils thought he was worth the money. At least Papelbon produces. Cannot say that about Lackey , Jenks or Bailey.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    Was it not Papelbon who was on the mound in the top of the ninth in a must win game three vs the Angel's in 2009. Who was 1 strike away from forcing a game four in Fenway with Lester the scheduled starter. Who couldn't finish the deal.

    Was it not the same Johnathan Papelbon who was on the mound in game 162 last year vs the Orioles. Who once again in a must win or go home game coughed up another 2 run lead with 2 outs...In fact he blew 2 saves in the last week of September and if my memory serves me correctly we missed the playoffs by a single game. No disrespect intended, but if my memory serves me right the last two times the Sox needed him to live up to his billings as one of the best, he didn't deliver.

    With that as the backdrop, while his start to this season has been impressive. I'm pretty sure that the Phillies organization and thier fans have to like what they see so far and no one calling for or pining for the return of Ryan Madson. I'd suggest that we wait unitl after the season too access Papelbon's performance.

    Bottom line is from what I saw last night he still throws too many fastballs and has yet to develop a secondary pitch that he trusts. As the season wears on, and he begins to lose some of the zip on his fastball and the ball starts to leak out over the plate...My advice to Philly fans that sit in the bleacher's is to bring their glove, cause, just when you think it's game over. On the very next pitch, look out Souvenier City.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    Well, until his expected demise starts to happen (how many years, have we Sox fans been saying this about Mo, please remind me?):

    9 for 9
    0.82 ERA

    And Geo, there aren't many, but has Mo not been worth that for many, many years? Was Hoffman not worth it for much of his career? Again, not many exist, but when you find one, he's worth the money. Was it worth hinging hopes on a guy who'd missed significant time for 3 straight seasons? But it's ok to give 7/142 to a ten year vet? Lackey worth all that money? Jenks? Cameron? Oh, but fiscal responsibility is to be shown on a guy who the Sox grew and proved himself in Boston? Ummm, ok.
     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Papelbon worth every cent

    I think most Sox fans are more concerned with winning games than how to spread the payroll around. Papelbon is certainly more valuable than Lackey , Bailey and Jenks put together.  Do you think the Phils fans are happy with Pap's performance or complaining about him being overpaid?  I think the answer to that is obvious.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

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    In Response to Re: Papelbon worth every cent:
    [QUOTE]I think most Sox fans are more concerned with winning games than how to spread the payroll around. Papelbon is certainly more valuable than Lackey , Bailey and Jenks put together.  Do you think the Phils fans are happy with Pap's performance or complaining about him being overpaid?  I think the answer to that is obvious.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    Fair enough.  but let us not forget that Papelbon hasn't earned anything yet as a Phil.  8 saves makes Phils fans happy?  nah.  It makes them comfortable.  But, Phillies fans are not thinking about how much of a hoss their closer is in April.  The last 2 times the Sox had to win to keep the season alive, the season ended on papelbon's watch.  Last year to the Orioles.  I'm thinking the Phillies fans will keep the verdict out on their 15 million dollar a year closer until he closes a big  money game.
     

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