Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from kbev97. Show kbev97's posts

    Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/2011_0430papi_in_zone_against_lefties/
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from kbev97. Show kbev97's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    Also this article.

    http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/Red_Sox_Ortiz_Francona_04-30-11_APNR57A_v2.178720b.html
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

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    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    I'll be the first to admit I was wrong after the sample size gets much larger, but this is very very encouraging for all Sox fans!
     
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    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

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    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    No need to qualify how wrong you were. The word was "in decline", and the sample size being not large enough means that Lowrie hitting high level against RHP is fools gold, which he is.
     
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    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    In Response to Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties:
    [QUOTE]I'll be the first to admit I was wrong after the sample size gets much larger, but this is very very encouraging for all Sox fans!
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    This is the point I was trying to make earlier. Your concerns certainly were justified, and Ortiz had struggled against lefties in recent years. But he used to be good. Every year is different, and Ortiz said in the offseason that he knew he had to change his approach.

    That's why I felt he needed to be given the chance. It wasn't like he was trying to do something he never did. He was trying to get back to do something he was successful with. If his struggles continued then yes, start going with the platoon.

    And it's something to moniter as the season goes in case he reverts. 

    One thing to be concerned about right now with Ortiz is the somewhat lack of run production. HIs average is nice, but 2 homers and 11 RBis in a month is a bit down. There's no reason to panic right now. I figure he'll heat up even more like the last two seasons, and the difference right now is that he's starting at a higher point than he did the last two seasons.

    He's still a key bat in the lineup and needs to start taking advantage of his chances when guys are on base.




     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    No need to qualify how wrong you were. The word was "in decline", and the sample size being not large enough means that Lowrie hitting high level against RHP is fools gold, which he is.

    You're the guy who keeps saying anyone over 33 is washed up. Yet, you denied Oki was in decline. Even by your own strict ERA/WHIP guidelines, he has been. Pai's decline vs LHPs has been long and steady. The sample sizes are large enough to make an assumption. The sample size thus far this year is encouraging, but not substantial enough to make any definitive judgements that he is back to pre-2007 levels.

    I have never said Lowrie's sample size is large enought to make any definitive assumptions about, but you kee pretnding I am saying things I never said. His body of work is large enough to project he is better than Scutty and others vs lefties. You can keep explaining away Oki's "decline" due to injury, but for some reason, you won't adjust one iota for Lowrie's single injury and single illness.

    You you use one AB sample size to praise Oki, but insist on career numbers (influenced by injury) to judge Jed. You use only the last 1 1/2 years to judge Wake, but when we use the same time frame to judge Papi vs LHPs, you claim"small sample size". If Papi slips back to sub .700 vs LHPs, will you be here to talk about it? Will you change into another alter ego?

    Just pick one criteria and stick with it. Your goalpost moving is comical.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    Big Papi is, and will forever be The Man. A lot of people gave up on him after his wrist injury, but that's healed now and I for one am looking for him to be as clutch as he was in 2007 and 2004. As a matter of fact I'm changing my avatar back now that everyone knows what I look like.
     
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    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    Slav obviously has a problem with Ortiz's background. He moves the goal post on sample sizes. "Steady decline" is a bugaboo used by those who no nothing about baseball. People have been saying Ortiz was washed up for the last 3 years. Slav's one of those dolts who looks at a segment and then assigns "steady decline" to players he doesn't like. Wakefield is in steady free fall.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    I'm not getting in the middle of you and moon softy. Some things I agree with you about, some things I agree with moon about. I will say this about moon. He'll man up and admit when he's wrong(i.e. Big Papi). I've never seen you do the same, especially about "jitterbug jake" or Lowrie.
     
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    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

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    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    carnie, I'm not "softy" and Slav is hardly manning up on carping about Ortiz sitting v. most lefties. He wants to see a bigger "sample size", only because he wants to ignore Ortiz's career history. Ortiz had injuries, as older players get, that contributed to some off years on splits. No one with any sense would be acerbicly critical of Ortiz with what he does, year in and year out.

    I look at Ellsbury as a "scatback". Do you seem him differently? Drew is the kind of OF'er I like, with all the tools. Ellsbury's bag is missing more than one important baseball tool.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    In Response to Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties:
    [QUOTE]carnie, I'm not "softy" and Slav is hardly manning up on carping about Ortiz sitting v. most lefties. He wants to see a bigger "sample size", only because he wants to ignore Ortiz's career history. Ortiz had injuries, as older players get, that contributed to some off years on splits. No one with any sense would be acerbicly critical of Ortiz with what he does, year in and year out. I look at Ellsbury as a "scatback". Do you seem him differently? Drew is the kind of OF'er I like, with all the tools. Ellsbury's bag is missing more than one important baseball tool.
    Posted by BaseballGM[/QUOTE]Ells' arm is weak, that's a fact. He does hit for average and he's showing some pop this year. He gets to every ball that's hit close to him too. I think Theo will probably let him walk at free agency, and he probably should, as his contract demands are likely to be outrageous given his agent. Lowrie is a very nice ballplayer though. He might not be ideal anywhere but 2B, but he can play all the IF positions at least adequately, and he can really hit.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    Slav obviously has a problem with Ortiz's background. He moves the goal post on sample sizes. "Steady decline" is a bugaboo used by those who no nothing about baseball. People have been saying Ortiz was washed up for the last 3 years. Slav's one of those dolts who looks at a segment and then assigns "steady decline" to players he doesn't like.

    I only said Papi has been in decline vs lefties, not overall. It was softy who wanted him sent to the minors in 2009 after his slow start (on a phantom rehab agreement). I just wanted him moved out of th 3 slot vs lefties. I never said Papi was "washed up"...never, o don't link me with those fools.

    As for Papi's decline vs LHP, the facts speak for themselves. Note Papi's sample size since 2007 is about equal to Jed's career sample size, and yet softy...ah hem...GM has already decided on what Jed can do based on that sampe, size, but we are not allowed to make judgements on Papi vs LHPs with about the same size sample set.

    Papi vs LHPs: (PAs) OPS
    2007: (241) .988
    2008: (121) .741 (Age 32)
    2009: (188) .716
    2010: (200) .599
    2011: (36)  1.017
     
    I am extremely happy Papi has started off strong his year, especially vs LHPs. 36 PAs is a small sample size, but large enough to show that he might have reversed the slide.

    Are you predicting he will have an OPS over .850 vs lefties over the full season?

    You also denied Oki was in decline. You cling to ERA and WHIP (except for Wake) as the only measurement of a pitcher's effectiveness. When I mentioned Oki was in decline, you called me a racist, eventhough I was for re-signing him. You confused me with harness, just because I agree wth him on CERA value.

    I mentioned several times that it would have been very hard for any pitcher to not regress from the awesome 2007 season and that his 2008 season was very good as well, but nevertheless, he has declined at age 32 and beyond.

    OKI since 2007: (IP) ERA/WHIP
    2007: (69) 2.22/0.917
    2008: (62) 2.61/1.161 (Age 32)
    2009: (61) 3.39/1.262
    2010: (46) 4.50/1.717
    2011:  (2)  13.50/2.500

    As for Wake...
        "Wakefield is in steady free fall."
     
    Wake at age 32-33:
    5.08/1.557
    5.48/1.475

    Wake's career average at age 33 (after 2000 season):
    4.47/1.420

    Wake's numbers from 1996 to 2000
    4.87/1.460 (Age29-33)

    Wake after age 33:
    (Numbes in Red represent better numbers than his prime years)
    34) 3.90/1.358
    35) 2.81/1.053
    36) 4.09/1.305
    37) 4.87/1.381
    38) 4.15/1.234
    39) 4.63/1.329
    40) 4.76/1.349
    41) 4.13/1.182
    (5th in AL)
    42) 4.58/1.442 (injured half way through season)
    43) 5.34/1.350 (recovering from back surgery)
    44) 5.56/0.971

    The last 2 seasons do not show good numbers, but it is obvious that Wake's career has not followed the norma bell curve career.

    His normal prime years of 29-33 were his worst. (4.87/1.460)

    Every season after 2000 his WHIP has been better than his prime years, and all but one season was more than his career numbers up to age 33.

    His ERA has been better than his prime years in 9 out of his last 11 seasons after "prime".

    His ERA has been better than his career numbers after year 2000 in 5 out of the 11 seasons after 2000, including seasons at age 38 and 41.

    One of (if not) the best 50 start stretches of his career came at ages 41-42 (2008 to mid 2009). That is not a normal stretch for a player that age.

    I don't see the "decline" until the injury in mid-2009. Perhaps he will never regain.

    .
    I have seen a decline in Oki and Papi vs LHPs.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from M1A2. Show M1A2's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    Bad timing on the post/thread.  Ortiz has 11 rbi's in April, 3 less than Ellsbury.  And he struck out with the bases loaded tonight. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    No, Moon was not wrong.
    He posted the facts that indicated Papi has regressed vs. lefties. He based his take on that.
    By year's end, the numbers could go either way.
    And unlike the clowns on this board, Moon will man up to them.

    Papi is a very knowledgeable hitter. He has remained a force because of his ability to make the proper adjustments. It's hard to tell when regression is age-based, or the result of improper mechanics.

    I advocated Papi's return over other alternatives because I feel he is an amazing hitter. Before the team decides to cut ties with him or Paps by year's end, they need to consider how both are the very best in their respective positions - the best in team history.
    And neither is ready to pull the plug.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from M1A2. Show M1A2's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    Ortiz got off to a good start, but now has 3 rbi's in his last 15 games.  Tonight he left 5 guys stranded and struck out twice with men on base.  The Sox are mired in last place in the AL East, which would be a perfect time for a real hitter to do some hitting. 

    And, lest you think I'm picking on him, I haven't seen much out of Pedroia or Youk either.  Crawford is a basket case.  Drew continues to be Drew--a good, but nonproductive hitter. Lowrie has cooled off.  Ellsbury got on base three times tonight, including a leadoff double, and couldn't get past 2d base. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from AL34. Show AL34's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    He has not hit a home run in about a month. Mike Cameron has more home runs than Gonzalez. Still waiting for those balls off the Green Monster, too left handed a lineup. Werth was a better fit than Carl Crawford.
     
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    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    If he comes back it is not going to be at 11 million a year. I think they will offer him less and if he takes it he does if not, they will sign another DH like Vlad Guerrero
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Papi in Zone vs. Lefties

    It will be hard to treat Papi like others who Theo has, in a sense, let walk. No other player contributed more to this team's two rings than Papi.

    Bringing up his numbers vs LHPs over the full season will go a long way towards convincing management to pay exta to keep him here. It would be nice to see some of that old crunch time flare surface again as well.

    If he finishes as strong as he has the last 2 years, his overall numbers will look very nice.  Let's say he ends up at .285/.360/.540/.900 with 35 jacks and 120 RBIs; I think he will get a $20M/2 year deal with incentives.

    As much as I'd want to see a DH who can rotate into the field and/or a big RH'd bat, I' love to see Papi retire in Boston.

     

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