i called it perfectly last year. barring injury or eye issues, no sudden total decline a la Rice. saw it more like Molitor or even reggie jackson. figure this year and perhaps even next year his power numbers would remain relatively stable and similar but the average would dip. no more .300 or .290. but yeah .270 at BEST and .240 at the low end with more strikeouts (less contact capacity, cant use most fields like before). in 2 years , barring injury, as the power numbers and average dip, papi, willl likely trade power for average as Reggie once did in his later years with oakland.. think he approached or hit .300 in one of his later years (shocking many).. but had little of the famous power.
by the fourth year, as pitchers grasp his crutch+compensation, that soon dissipates as well.. now ur stuck with no power or average.. thus soon, the team is resting you a lot more and strategically only playing you against certain guys (junkballing specialists) as the great Papi drops to 7th or even 8th in the lineup.
hey, if it works, could be like ichiro right about now. at best, you get a fifth year as u announce it will be your last . if not, 4th year is your last to save your ego+pride.. also, depends on one's contract situation.. so, barring injury, can see papi out there for another 5 years MAX
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