Paul Goldschmidt question

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Paul Goldschmidt question

    He's now one the best young offensive batter in the NL.  He's 26 and made ML debut at the age of 23.  Paul was selected by ARZ in the 8th round.  Flied through the lower minor league system and even skipped AAA ball.  My question is why he was not recognized as top prospects coming up to the major.  He posted very solid minor league numbers in 315 games through Rookie level to AA ball.  83 HRs .317/.407/.620 line.  I don't exactly know how the prospects rankings system work but Goldschmidt not named in any top 100 list seems little bit odd to me.  Can anyone answer my question? 

     
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    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    In response to seannybboi's comment:

    He's now one the best young offensive batter in the NL.  He's 26 and made ML debut at the age of 23.  Paul was selected by ARZ in the 8th round.  Flied through the lower minor league system and even skipped AAA ball.  My question is why he was not recognized as top prospects coming up to the major.  He posted very solid minor league numbers in 315 games through Rookie level to AA ball.  83 HRs .317/.407/.620 line.  I don't exactly know how the prospects rankings system work but Goldschmidt not named in any top 100 list seems little bit odd to me.  Can anyone answer my question? 



    This is an excellent question. For me it shows how scouts and rankers copycat each other. They make a safe choice, someone who has already been validated by someone else that they respect. It means that guys like Daniel Nava, who doesn't have all the tools can somehow wend their way through the system and end up hitting over .300 in the super tough AL East and be a big contributor on a World Series team. Look at Jesus Montero former Yankee great, who's list is he on now? 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    In response to seannybboi's comment:

    He's now one the best young offensive batter in the NL.  He's 26 and made ML debut at the age of 23.  Paul was selected by ARZ in the 8th round.  Flied through the lower minor league system and even skipped AAA ball.  My question is why he was not recognized as top prospects coming up to the major.  He posted very solid minor league numbers in 315 games through Rookie level to AA ball.  83 HRs .317/.407/.620 line.  I don't exactly know how the prospects rankings system work but Goldschmidt not named in any top 100 list seems little bit odd to me.  Can anyone answer my question? 



    This is an excellent question. For me it shows how scouts and rankers copycat each other. They make a safe choice, someone who has already been validated by someone else that they respect. It means that guys like Daniel Nava, who doesn't have all the tools can somehow wend their way through the system and end up hitting over .300 in the super tough AL East and be a big contributor on a World Series team. Look at Jesus Montero former Yankee great, who's list is he on now? 




    the reputable sites all have their own scouts, but this is still true.  No one can get out to see everyone and all too they only get to see a limited amount of playing time of certain players.  Do you think a baseball america scout saw more than 1 or 2 of Henry Owens starts?  I think the higher regarded guys are scouted more, but to some extent scouts talk to each other and take each others words on a lot of stuff.

    This could also explain why some guys are a lot lower on certain players, if they only see a start or two and catch them on a bad day they are bound to have a lower opinion of them.

    Then there are sites alltogether that don't do any scouting at all and just go by the reports of others.

    At the end of the day I trust Baseball America the most, but I think Keith Law, baseball prospectus and minor league ball are nice sites as well.  I think MLB.com has got much better this year as well (Jim Callis of baseball america switched over to there this year)

    I put a lot of weight into Soxprospects as well, obviously they are a sox friendly body, but they also have more eyes on our guys than anyone else out there.

    I also think, that at the end of the day you just can't scout everyone.  There will always be a guy who slips through the cracks, guys like Daniel Nava and Paul Goldschidt.  At the end of the day, these are just predictions and no one has a crystal ball.  I think they do a good job, but it is an imperfect science.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    The problem with Goldshmidt was a combination of factors. Truthfully, when you add it all up it makes sense for him to have been ranked only for ONE time frame......Mid season 2011.

    First, he had no pedigree being an 8th round pick. Then, he had a great rookie season, but being a college guy and being just a first baseman[only one 1st baseman got ranked by BA this off season], he still should not have even gotten any consideration. Then the next season, he played in the Cali league. Most 1st baseman hit in the Cali league. He also had 161 K's. And by the next off season he had over 150 AB's and had lost his prospect status.

    Pujols had a similar rise and was hardly ranked before he became a star in the bigs.

    With that being said, he should have been ranked mid season of 2011. I remember seeing him I think in the furures game and saying that guy is a monster.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    In response to BMav's comment:

    The problem with Goldshmidt was a combination of factors. Truthfully, when you add it all up it makes sense for him to have been ranked only for ONE time frame......Mid season 2011.

    First, he had no pedigree being an 8th round pick. Then, he had a great rookie season, but being a college guy and being just a first baseman[only one 1st baseman got ranked by BA this off season], he still should not have even gotten any consideration. Then the next season, he played in the Cali league. Most 1st baseman hit in the Cali league. He also had 161 K's. And by the next off season he had over 150 AB's and had lost his prospect status.

    Pujols had a similar rise and was hardly ranked before he became a star in the bigs.

    With that being said, he should have been ranked mid season of 2011. I remember seeing him I think in the furures game and saying that guy is a monster.



    All good points.  Also being a first baseman, your progression to the big leagues is largely tied in to your bat, and hitting in the lower minors when you don't have that draft pedigree only goes so far. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    A lot of good players were never ranked as prospects.  Kevin Youkilis, for example, was never a top 100 prospect. Neither was Yadier Molina.  Yet Derek Lillibridge was (BA #93 in 2007).  Go figure.

     

    The ranking of prospects is an inexact science, like it is in any sport.  That' why so many top draft picks in other sports never do anything while those picked later go on to excel.  Everyone at the time felt Greg Oden was a better option for the future than Kevin Durant.  How does that look in hindsight?

     

    Even lookin at past rankings shows how inexact predicting the future is.  Corey Patterson was ranked 40 places ahead of Albert Pujols.  Clearly, who turned out better?

     

    Nava is not a good comp, as he got such a late start and spent most of his time in the lower minors as one of the older players.  This criteria is often held against a player, and it really should be.  A 23yo doing severe damage against 18 and 19yo competition is not necessarily that impressive.

     

    Any time scouts (or, really, anyone) is put in a position where they have to predict the future, there will be severe errors in judgment.  It should be expected...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    This offseason the Seattle Mariners gave a $240 million contract to Robinson Cano, who was never ranked among Baseball America's Top 100 prospects. Kyle Seager and Brad Miller, Seattle's top WAR producers among position players last year, were never among BA's Top 100 prospects, and neither was 2013 Cy Young finalist Hisashi Iwakuma.

    In 2010 Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list included Jesus Montero at No. 4, Dustin Ackley at No. 11, Justin Smoak at No. 13, Logan Morrison No. 20 and Michael Saunders at No. 30. These five hitters are now teammates on a Seattle club that many expect to be low-scoring again.

    Nevertheless, empirical study suggests that Baseball America does a decent job of forecasting future MLB productivity:

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top

     
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    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    The guy that should be getting the kudos is the Scout. I pay very little attention to these sites. I've read the Sox site saying Barnes could be a very good number 3 starter. Seen him Pitch in College and Double AA, he's got the talent to dominate.

     
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    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    nEVER HEARD OF HIM !!!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    Rankings can be fickle....that's why they play the games.

    The definition of prospect...the posibilty or likilhood of an event happening and or of a person that is likely to succeed. Niether promises success, merely the possibility of...

    In baseball, given the differing levels of competition from state to state and internationally. It's tough to accurately rate a kid who plays baseball in Minnesota v one plays in Japan...

    Most scouts ratings are based on measurables and it doesn't take more than one or two visits for them to arrive at what they see as the potential upside of a player. for position players; how many of the five tools they possess factors into the grading. For pitchers; the radar gun is the great equalizer. 

    Trey Ball is currently listed as the Red Sox 11th best prospect, having never thrown a professional baseball..just ahead of Drake Britton. Why? Because of where he was drafted, by year's end, based on how well he adjusts to the pro game. He could, quickly become our top prospect and be on the top 20 BA rankings...

     
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    Re: Paul Goldschmidt question

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

    nEVER HEARD OF HIM !!!



    Last year with the DBacks he won a Gold Glove had 125 RBIs, 36 HRs, hit .302 and had an OBP of .401. While in college he was the Southland Conference Player of the Year twice and 3rd team All American. I watched him play here in Montana his rookie year with the Missoula Osprey where he terrorized the Rookie League with 18 HRs and 88 RBIs in 57 games. His stats at every level are just off the charts so I don't know why he would fall to the 8th round. When he was here in Montana he was thought of as a great kid and a good citizen.

     
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