Re: Pawsox news
posted at 9/13/2012 10:20 PM EDT
In response to southpaw777's comment:
In response to notin's comment:
In response to southpaw777's comment:
I think out of all our prospects, the ones that have the most upside are the four B's...Barnes, Bradley, Bogaerts and Brentz. I would honestly wait to see what they have to offer us before letting them go for anyone...Especially Upton. Something about him I just dont trust. Id rather have a 24yr old slugger with just as much power from our own system than him. Thats just me though. Those 4 are going to be solid ballplayers IMO. Now, if Upton had been consistant and without attitude issues so far, then maybe. But he hasnt been without either. Brentz could be ready in 2013. Ill deal with the learning curve. Middy's learning curve wasnt too bad and I dont think it will take long for Brentz to adjust either. He has at every level so far fairly quickly. Hes a smart ballplayer.
If I were to give up some prospects, it would be for Trumbo to play 1b. If the Angels would even deal him.
Brentz does not have "just as much power" as Upton.
Upton is in a class with Stanton and no one else when it comes to RHH power. Do not be fooled by a poor season
Thats unfair to say because Brentz hasnt had the chance to show what hes got in MLB. Hes hit a ton in AA and already in AAA...I realize that sometimes that doesnt translate to MLB, but Brentz has 30HR power and so has Upton. I dont see why Brentz couldnt have as much power as Upton. Unless your just talking about distance, which I could care less about as long as the ball clears the wall...
They both hit for power and have a few extra K's...Brentz has shown to have a good OBP as well as solid defense...Hes made all the adjustments and I see no reason why he wont do the same at the MLB level.
What Im saying is that Id give Brentz the chance first before i go spending 10mm in 2013 and 15mm per for only 2 more years on a guy that might not be worth the $$ in comparison to the production and years under contol Brentz could give you...The question I ask myself is "Is Upton really worth approx 40mm for 3 years in comparison to Brentz at 1.5mm/3yrs then 3yrs of arb?" No, its not all about the money. But I believe Brentz, like Middlebrooks, can give you solid production and defense. maybe not quite as good as Upton. But as far as years and $$ goes, I dont think Brentz' production at the MLB level will be all that far behind Upton. I see him hitting 20-25HR (maybe more) with a 350OBP and somewhere around 500SLG with a bunch of K's once he adjusts.
I could be completely wrong, but this is just my opinion. Certain kids I like to give a shot before trading them. Brentz is one of them.
I view Brentz as fairly ordinary and completely expendable. It is most definitely not unfair to judge Brentz this way. What is unfair is thinking 24yo Brentz is on the way up and 100% guaranteed to improve, but 25yo Justin Upton has clearly reached his peak and will only trend downward, maybe after a brief plateau. The things you like about Brentz, such as his .833OPS in AA ball are less than what Upton was doing AT AGE NINETEEN. Thats TWO years out of high school! (Upton had a .955OPS in AA at 19years old in 2007 in 300ABs. He was in the majors in 2008 at age 20 How you figure Brentz .833OPS in AA at age 23 makes him the equal to a guy who had a .955OPS in AA at age 19 still amazes me. And how you limit their offensive comparables to HRs, all while assuming Brentz AA power and Uptons MLB power are equal since both hit 30HRs. Comparing Brentz to Upton in any fashion is completely ludicrous, even taking money into account. Upton is a hitter you build a team around. Brentz is the type of hitter you build around Upton with. When opposing teams face the Diamondbacks, the pitchers, catchers and coaches get together and discuss how not to get beaten by Upton. They do not do this with Brentz, and most likely never will. Upton is a guy who can be in the heart of the order on a playoff team (as he was way back in 2011), and whose bad season can ruin an entire year for his team, like he did this year with his arm injury. Brentz is the type of hitter who bats sixth in an average lineup, and if he goes down, you move on. If a team has Bryce Brentz hitting third or fourth, they had better have some SERIOUS pitching, which actually negates most of the cost savings, since we know where it will HAVE to be allocated.
There are numerous prospects in the Sox system I like better than Brentz. I think Sox fans have a tendency to give first shot to hometown draft picks over acquisitions, and the favoritism of Brentz is largely dependent on this. Really, the only thing working for Brentz fans this off-season is the unlikelihood that anyone else is all that interested in him. If the Sox try for the big names fans would like to see, other GMs will be asking for Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and Webster. If the Sox are lucky, someone will settle for Brentz, but it is more likely no deal is struck and the Sox move on, or the Sox capitulate and deal the more highly regarded talent. That might be OK, too, depending on the deal.
Now Bogaerts has Upton-esque potential. And expecting Brentz to be in that league will only leave you disappointed. The only advantage of Brentz over Upton is that Brentz is already here, whereas Upton could cost significantly to acquire. If the price of Upton is Bogaerts and Bradley or Webster, I’ll gladly take Brentz. The downside to Brentz is that Sands is also already here, and has much, much greater potential as a hitter…