Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    I agree with these moves. The Beckett and Lackey moves HAVE to be made.

    Here are four moves to fix the Red Sox for 2013:


    No. 1: Trade Josh Beckett and $20 million of his remaining $31.5 million to the Braves for shortstop pospect Tyler Pastornicky.


    No. 2: Trade Jacoby Ellsbury for a starter. How about Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers? Ellsbury is going to impossible to sign, or exceedingly costly. Get pitching back now before it's too late.


    No. 3: Sign free agent James Shields.


    No. 4: Release John Lackey. Or trade him for whatever you can get, maybe somebody else's bad contract. Eating $30.50 million would sting. But it would be worth twice as much in positive publicity and send a clear message to the fan base that it's a new era.


    This creates a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Shields, Billingsley and Doubront. Make Franklin Morales a long reliever/spot starter.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    Fire Bill James. Send him back to Stokely foods....his theories don't work with this team.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    It is great to see the dummy is paid to make the same list out that 50% of this board has been talking baout for 4 months!  We should be getting paid!!!!
     
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    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    I like the idea of making moves, but the Braves would NEVER do that trade.  I dont think they'd do it if the Sox paid all of Beckett's contract.

    As for Lackey they npw have a club option for the 3rd year at the league minimum (because of his TJ surgery), so you have to look at his contract differently, really he is making 30 million, but you get a 3rd year for almost nothing.  its worth it to bring him to ST and see how is attitude and pitching ability are before trying to move him.
     
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    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    In Response to Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013:
    [QUOTE]I agree with these moves. The Beckett and Lackey moves HAVE to be made. Here are four moves to fix the Red Sox for 2013: No. 2: Trade Jacoby Ellsbury for a starter. How about Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers? Ellsbury is going to impossible to sign, or exceedingly costly. Get pitching back now before it's too late.
    Posted by ADG[/QUOTE]
    Chad Billingsley, who is nearly a year younger than Jacoby Ellsbury, has been valued at more career WAR* (19.6) than Ellsbury (18.1) despite Ellsbury's stellar 9.4 WAR in 2011.

    Ellsbury remains under his team's control through only next season, working off his 2012 salary of $8.05 million. Billingsley's contract calls for an $11 million salary in 2013 and $12 million in 2014 with a $14 million team option, or $3 million buyout, for 2015.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    In Response to Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013:
    [QUOTE]Billingsley, in the AL East/Fenway, is worth what Obama's Hope and Change is worth.
    Posted by TrotterNixon[/QUOTE]
    And Jacoby Ellsbury would be a .263/.314/.372/.685 hitter in the National League West ...

    ... wait, those are Ellsbury's numbers this year in the American League East.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ellsbja01.shtml
     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    Softlaw good post.  I would say that if you are okay with giving Ortiz a golden parachute year, then you should be open to giving him a 2 yr deal.  He's going to earn his contract next year, so if you are okay w/ overpaying him for a year, give him 2 yrs (the second year being the golden parachute year).  You alluded to this yourself, and I agree.  I would even contemplate a 3 yr deal if the $/yr was reasonable (3 yr / 30M I'd do, 2 yr / 25M I'd do, 1 yr 15M I'd do).  Obviously the more years you tack on , the less I am willing to give per year.

    I disagree when you say the 2004 Schilling and the 2006 Beckett's arent out there. Schilling wasnt particularly young when we got him.  We dont need a young ace.  We need an ace.  

    Id feel much better about

    Acquired Ace
    Buchholz
    Lester
    Doubront
    Lackey
    Morales

    Than 

    Buchholz
    Lester
    Doubront
    Lackey 
    Morales

    Also, our "window" will be closing soon.  We have CC's contract to thank for that.  I think that if we can sign Ortiz to a 2 year deal, this opens up a 2 year window to compete for a championship.  Therefore reliable/durable/pitchers between the ages of 29-31 who do not have absurd contrcats should be considered.  These guys are out there.  We just may need to break the Theo rule, which is: no major leaguer out there is worth any of your prospects (man, did Theo overrate his own prospects or what?)
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    Trotternixon,

    I won't repeat your length, lengthy response to Abraham's commentary, but will say I too mostly agree with it.

    It is astonishing how bad lineup has been since Ortiz left, despite AGon getting hot.  But I disagree with the golden parachute, as does Abraham, who recommends one year at the current salary.  With all your comments about racism, you keep ignoring the fact Ortiz is easily the highest paid DH in MLB by a good margin.  You also ignore the fact the could very well finish this season on the DL because of a ridiculous injury from trotting around the bases after a dinger.  You complain about Ellsbury, but Ortiz is the fragile one at age 36, 37 next year. Also, the Sox can't afford golden parachutes the way the Yankees can.

    I hear you on Iglesias, but an awful lot of Red Sox talent evaluators have looked at him, and Ciriaco got the nod.  And Aviles has mostly kept the SS slot because he is steady in the field and a run producer. As Abraham points out, Iglesias at his best hits singles. 

    I agree Lester should return to form and maybe has, but disagree it's simply confidence.  Buchholz is less confident than Lester--proven over the years--but has a better assortment of pitches which we saw last night.  Lester believes in his fastball and cutter, period.  Curves and changeups are waste pitches which hitters can ignore.  I agree with you and Abraham on Beckett.

    Ortiz signing with the Yankees?  Doubtful.  ARod gets that job. 

    I too have not been impressed with Shields. 

    Hernandez would be worth almost whatever Seattle wants. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    I agree with these moves. The Beckett and Lackey moves HAVE to be made.

    Here are four moves to fix the Red Sox for 2013:


    No. 1: Trade Josh Beckett and $20 million of his remaining $31.5 million to the Braves for shortstop pospect Tyler Pastornicky.

    I think we can pay less of Beckett's deal than $20M, and we are stacked at SS right now with over 5 good to great prospects, some of which are ready by 2013.


    No. 2: Trade Jacoby Ellsbury for a starter. How about Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers? Ellsbury is going to impossible to sign, or exceedingly costly. Get pitching back now before it's too late.

    Won't happen. 1 year of control for several years is not something LAD is looking to do.


    No. 3: Sign free agent James Shields.


    He's not a FA. There's no way TB turns down these options:
    13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
    They may trade him, but he will not be a FA. By the way, Tb need a catcher real bad.

    No. 4: Release John Lackey. Or trade him for whatever you can get, maybe somebody else's bad contract. Eating $30.50 million would sting. But it would be worth twice as much in positive publicity and send a clear message to the fan base that it's a new era.

    "public publicity" never wins any games. Better to let him play some, then try to trade him. Remember, Lackey plays for the league minimum in 2015 due to the injury clause, so his cost is really $30.5M/3. If he shows he can be a decent #4 starter, someone will give us something decent for him if we pay half his deal. We save $15M and get a player in return. Sure b eats cutting him.


    This creates a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Shields, Billingsley and Doubront. Make Franklin Morales a long reliever/spot starter.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    Ortiz is an easy case. A year later he is no longer worth the arbitration pay raise because of age, high miles and recent injury status. During the window for FA negotiations for the Red Sox, if Ortiz passes de facto physical test, offer Ortiz a 2 year deal at base 8 with maximum CBA allowed performance options. Likely that Ortiz won't be able to deliver over 2 years, but he's earned the golden parachute. If Ortiz isn't able to recover from the injury, offer him a lifetime services/consultant contract of some sort.

    softy called me a racist for suggesting a 3 year offer (last a club option) that amounted to about $10M/3. Now this silliness.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    In Response to Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013:
    [QUOTE]Ortiz is an easy case. A year later he is no longer worth the arbitration pay raise because of age, high miles and recent injury status. During the window for FA negotiations for the Red Sox, if Ortiz passes de facto physical test, offer Ortiz a 2 year deal at base 8 with maximum CBA allowed performance options. Likely that Ortiz won't be able to deliver over 2 years, but he's earned the golden parachute. If Ortiz isn't able to recover from the injury, offer him a lifetime services/consultant contract of some sort. softy called me a racist for suggesting a 3 year offer (last a club option) that amounted to about $10M/3. Now this silliness.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I actually don't agree with him on the Ortiz thing. Let me try free agency and see what type of offers he gets. He sure isn't worth $14M. Imagine if that money was put towards a pitcher. If you can trade Beckett and eat only have of that, that's $20M right there.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    In Response to Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013 : I actually don't agree with him on the Ortiz thing. Let me try free agency and see what type of offers he gets. He sure isn't worth $14M. Imagine if that money was put towards a pitcher. If you can trade Beckett and eat only have of that, that's $20M right there.
    Posted by ADG[/QUOTE]

    In today's market $14M will get you a #3 pitcher.  You're going to jettison the best hitter on the team for a #3 pitcher?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    Drew, we have about $28M to spend, not counting Papi. If we spend $14M on Papi, then there is only $14M for a starter.  If we don't sign papi, we could spend $20+M on a starter. (Not my plan, but still an option.)

    For agument's sake, let's say this is the choice:

    $28M to spend...

    Papi $14M
    Marcum $14M
    No OF additions.

    Greinke $19M
    Ross $6M
    2 pitchers like Cook and Padilla for $3M

    Peavy $20M
    Ross $6M
    1 pitcher at $2M

    It's not a slam dunk that signing Papi is the best choice.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013

    In Response to Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Peter Abraham on Fixing the Sox for 2013 : In today's market $14M will get you a #3 pitcher.  You're going to jettison the best hitter on the team for a #3 pitcher?
    Posted by Drewski5[/QUOTE]
    If only 19 MLB pitchers (including one reliever) earn an annual salary of at least $14 million, many teams are getting No. 3 pitchers (and even No. 1 pitchers) for less than $14 million:

    http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/salaries/position/p/2012
     
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