Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

    There's a lot of discussion and, I would say, a lot of confusion, about who is pitching like a #2 pitcher or a #3 pitcher etc.

    Here is one really quick and simple way this can be figured out.  

    A #3 pitcher is the one in the middle of the pack, so they are by definition an average pitcher.

    If you go by the stat of ERA+, an average pitcher would have a value of 100.

    Here are possible brackets that could be used.

    121 or higher - #1 pitcher

    106-120 - #2

    96-105 - #3

    86-95 - #4

    85 or lower - #5

    Sox rotation:

    Buchholz 246 - #1

    Lackey 130 - #1

    Doubront 106 - #2

    Lester 103 - #3

    Dempster 88 - #4

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

        It is all an exercise in futility.  It's not like football , where you have a depth chart.  You don't use your backup quarterback if you don't have to. Number three quarterback, rarely if ever plays.    In baseball, you have a five man rotation. They all pitch in turn. Assigning them numbers serves no purpose. It is not as if you can say , " we need this game tonight , better use our " ace ."  Obviously, some of your starters are better than others, but that does not mean they pitch more often . If you reach the playoffs, you can reset your rotation if possible.  What is the point of debating whether a guy is a number 2 or a number 3 ?  You might change your rating several times during the season anyway. A waste of time. Means nothing.

    Stabbed by Foulke

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

    It's nice to know if your starter ranks in the top 30, the next 30, and so forth. That's how I prefer to rank starters, but I shy away from using just one stat like ERA- or WHIP or WAR or xFIP or...

    I get the argument about the futility of ranking starters 1 through 5, but to me, it's like saying a QB is top 5 in the league.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

    Another way of looking at it is that the usual starting 5 has an ERA of 3.72, which would rank 2nd in the AL.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

    Where's Pumpsie Green?  Part of the reason I did this was so I could argue with him about Lester.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    It's nice to know if your starter ranks in the top 30, the next 30, and so forth. That's how I prefer to rank starters, but I shy away from using just one stat like ERA- or WHIP or WAR or xFIP or...

    Sox4ever

    Yeah, this was just meant to be a quick and dirty method, to help settle arguments that pop up.
    For dummies, like me and Pumpsie, not diligent numbers guys like you and JoeB.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    It's nice to know if your starter ranks in the top 30, the next 30, and so forth. That's how I prefer to rank starters, but I shy away from using just one stat like ERA- or WHIP or WAR or xFIP or...

    Sox4ever

    Yeah, this was just meant to be a quick and dirty method, to help settle arguments that pop up.
    For dummies, like me and Pumpsie, not diligent numbers guys like you and JoeB.



    I wasn't knocking your method. I like it.

    If Buch is healthy and Peavy gets stronger, we have a nice starting 4 for the playoffs and a nice pen addition with the odd men out going to the pen (probably Dempster & Doubront).

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

    Lester's ERA+ is now at 105, which puts him on the cusp between a #3 and a #2.

    Right Pumpsie?

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Pitcher Numbering for Dummies

    Hfx,

    Personally I think ERA stats can be misleading reagardless of which ones you use. The example I"ll use to argue my point is a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA that consistently pitches 6 full. Which equates to 2.66 earned runs allowed per start. Is far more valuable than one with a 3.75 who as rule rarely goes 6 full. Over the coarse of a full season it places a greater strain on the bullpen to pick up the slack. Another way of looking at it is earned runs allowed per outs pitched.

    Although I get what you're trying to do is to come up with a simpler formula for dummies like me...I would say that what differentiats a #1 from a #5 is the dependibitly of quality starts and the number of innings per start. Which plays a huge role in how a manager sets up his bullpen to navigate a 162 game schedule. If you have a horse fronting your rotation who as a rule pitches into the 7th every 5 days and gives you 25 or so quality starts out of 32 it has a ripple effect throughout the entire pitching staff and IMHO if you then apply the same formula IP per start-QS-earned runs allowed per outs pitched. The rest of the rotation falls into line.

     

     

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