Re: Pitching Depth?
posted at 3/28/2012 10:30 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Pitching Depth?:[QUOTE]
I totally disagree. Last spring we had Lester, Beckett, Buch, Dice and Lackey as our top 5. They all seemed healthy and there was no reason to think they'd be hurt or get worse from 2010 to 2011. We had a very capable 6th starter in Wakefield (who proved to be one of the best 6th starters in MLB last year.) We then had a very promising Doubront, a gifted Aceves, and projects such as Miller giving us what looked like a nice 9 deep starting staff.
As always good points, Moon. FWIW, when comparing this year to last my mind set was the perception at the start of the season. Personally, I wasn't considering Miller as much in the way of depth (intriguing project? yes; depth? no) and maybe I'm selling Ace a bit short but I don't think we expected nearly that much out of him. Doubront was out of shape but to be fair I don't recall how much we knew about that at the end of ST last year.
We weren't 10-15 deep, but we had a nice starting 5 had they all stayed healthy. Our #6 (Wake) was a better bet than Cook is now. Yes, Doub & Aceves were not clearly good depth last year in ST, but neither are Padilla and Miller now. Now we have Doubront as our #4. Last year he was our #7 or 8 slot guy. A nice ST this year hasn't magically made him dependable.
That being said, I do see a good potential that Bard and/or Aceves can do better than Lackey, Wake and others from 2011, but at what expense? Our pen will be in shambles if neither Bard nor Aceves are there.
I may just be an optimist but I think Bard, Ace, Doubront, Cook and Padilla should all be able to give us better starts than we got got from our #4-inf starters last year. Will this year's pitching be better than what was projected for last year ... possible but I wouldn't bet on it. Will they be better than what we actually got last year ... I think that's almost certain. There are two other factors that I think favor this year's group:
1 - three of these guys have a very high celing so the upside surprise should be greater than the downside one
2 - none of these guys are entrenched so I would expect a much shorter leash ... we shouldn't have to suffer through one awful start after another while hearing how "the ball felt good coming outta my hands"
If, and it's a big if, they all stay healthy, we will have a better staff than last year, but I'm not counting on good health anymore. That's why I advocated for getting a solid #3 type starter. It knocks everyone down a notch and strengthens the pen at the same time.
I'd take a gentlemen's bet with you on the # of starts for the big 3. 80 or more GS and I win, 65 or less and you win, 66-79 is a push. I may make it to Maine this summer. If you win and if I make the trip, I'll buy you an out of this world sandwich from Big G's in Waterville
I'll bet on 85 to 65...not who is closest, but 65 or less, 85 or more, or no winner at all. I'd guess we end up around 75.
It would have to be next summer for bet collecting.
I'll buy you a lobster roll from Two Lights Lobster Shack if you take the bet. That sandwich sounds goooood!