Pitching Depth?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    In Response to Re: Pitching Depth?:
    [QUOTE]
    I totally disagree. Last spring we had Lester, Beckett, Buch, Dice and Lackey as our top 5. They all seemed healthy and there was no reason to think they'd be hurt or get worse from 2010 to 2011. We had a very capable 6th starter in Wakefield (who proved to be one of the best 6th starters in MLB last year.) We then had a very promising Doubront, a gifted Aceves, and projects such as Miller giving us what looked like a nice 9 deep starting staff. 
    As always good points, Moon.  FWIW, when comparing this year to last my mind set was the perception at the start of the season.  Personally, I wasn't considering Miller as much in the way of depth (intriguing project? yes; depth? no) and maybe I'm selling Ace a bit short but I don't think we expected nearly that much out of him.  Doubront was out of shape but to be fair I don't recall how much we knew about that at the end of ST last year.  I may just be an optimist but I think Bard, Ace, Doubront, Cook  and Padilla should all be able to give us better starts than we got got from our #4-inf starters last year.  Will this year's pitching be better than what was projected for last year ... possible but I wouldn't bet on it.  Will they be better than what we actually got last year ... I think that's almost certain.  There are two other factors that I think favor this year's group:
    1 - three of these guys have a very high celing so the upside surprise should be greater than the downside one
    2 - none of these guys are entrenched so I would expect a much shorter leash ... we shouldn't have to suffer through one awful start after another while hearing how "the ball felt good coming outta my hands"

    I'd take a gentlemen's bet with you on the # of starts for the big 3.  80 or more GS and I win, 65 or less and you win, 66-79 is a push.  I may make it to Maine this summer.  If you win and if I make the trip, I'll buy you an out of this world sandwich from Big G's in Waterville Smile
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    In Response to Re: Pitching Depth?:
    [QUOTE]
    I totally disagree. Last spring we had Lester, Beckett, Buch, Dice and Lackey as our top 5. They all seemed healthy and there was no reason to think they'd be hurt or get worse from 2010 to 2011. We had a very capable 6th starter in Wakefield (who proved to be one of the best 6th starters in MLB last year.) We then had a very promising Doubront, a gifted Aceves, and projects such as Miller giving us what looked like a nice 9 deep starting staff. 
    As always good points, Moon.  FWIW, when comparing this year to last my mind set was the perception at the start of the season.  Personally, I wasn't considering Miller as much in the way of depth (intriguing project? yes; depth? no) and maybe I'm selling Ace a bit short but I don't think we expected nearly that much out of him.  Doubront was out of shape but to be fair I don't recall how much we knew about that at the end of ST last year.  

    We weren't 10-15 deep, but we had a nice starting 5 had they all stayed healthy. Our #6 (Wake) was a better bet than Cook is now. Yes, Doub & Aceves were not clearly good depth last year in ST, but neither are Padilla and Miller now. Now we have Doubront as our #4. Last year he was our #7 or 8 slot guy. A nice ST this year hasn't magically made him dependable.

    That being said, I do see a good potential that Bard and/or Aceves can do better than Lackey, Wake and others from 2011, but at what expense? Our pen will be in shambles if neither Bard nor Aceves are there.

    I may just be an optimist but I think Bard, Ace, Doubront, Cook  and Padilla should all be able to give us better starts than we got got from our #4-inf starters last year.  Will this year's pitching be better than what was projected for last year ... possible but I wouldn't bet on it.  Will they be better than what we actually got last year ... I think that's almost certain.  There are two other factors that I think favor this year's group:
    1 - three of these guys have a very high celing so the upside surprise should be greater than the downside one
    2 - none of these guys are entrenched so I would expect a much shorter leash ... we shouldn't have to suffer through one awful start after another while hearing how "the ball felt good coming outta my hands"

    If, and it's a big if, they all stay healthy, we will have a better staff than last year, but I'm not counting on good health anymore. That's why I advocated for getting a solid #3 type starter. It knocks everyone down a notch and strengthens the pen at the same time. 

    I'd take a gentlemen's bet with you on the # of starts for the big 3.  80 or more GS and I win, 65 or less and you win, 66-79 is a push.  I may make it to Maine this summer.  If you win and if I make the trip, I'll buy you an out of this world sandwich from Big G's in Waterville 

    I'll bet on 85 to 65...not who is closest, but 65 or less, 85 or more, or no winner at all. I'd guess we end up around 75.

    It would have to be next summer for bet collecting.

    I'll buy you a lobster roll from Two Lights Lobster Shack if you take the bet. That sandwich sounds goooood!
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    Agreed on being less/more not who is closest, but I have to stick with 80.  85 is too close to optimal.  If 80 vs. 65 doesn't work for you we'll have to come up with another over/under bet ... a lobster roll sure does sound good.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    How about 80 and over vs 70 and under?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    I can't wait till the pleas to bring "innings eater" back out of forced retirement. As if that will result in anything but wasted innings on a losing team.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    Lester 31 Beckett 28 Bucholz 26 Cook 19 Bard 19 DiceK 16 Doubront 14 Padilla 7 Aceves 1 Wilson 1
    Beckett will miss his usual 2-3 of starts to be strong @ end of year. Bucholz will be given a few starts off [for some undisclosed injury] to keep ip count below 180. Dice K takes spot in June, Bard will be shut down and will give starts back to Doubront who loses spot to Cook/Dice return. Now lets all say a prayer that RS rotation stays healthy. Can Cook [who's looked good in ST] stay healthy enough to make 19 starts, might be unrealistic. But see Doubront moving in and out of rotation for Cook and DiceK
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    In Response to Re: Pitching Depth?:
    [QUOTE]How about 80 and over vs 70 and under?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    You have a bet ... I can taste the lobster now :)
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    Having a lot of pithers isn't the same as pitching depth.  Debating health is really an empty path, I think you assume some 15 day DL stints, to not would be unrealistic but if you want to assume less than 70 starts for the top 3, than you might as well throw all predictions out the window.

    Clay's durability problems are a bit overblown, I think.  If you look at 2009 I think he made close to 30 starts between AAA and the big club and has other years in the minors with 20 something starts. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    Re: the 70 GS threshold, I think Moon is just hedging ... if the pitchers let him down he gets consoled with free lobster; if they live up to expectations, I'm sure he'll be happy to buy a lobster roll.  I, on the other hand, am doubling down ... I either get two helpings of satisfaction or two of misery.
    Frown
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    Yeah, but I'm betting against my best interests.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

    Having a lot of pithers isn't the same as pitching depth.  

    I couldn't agree more.

    Debating health is really an empty path, I think you assume some 15 day DL stints, to not would be unrealistic but if you want to assume less than 70 starts for the top 3, than you might as well throw all predictions out the window.

    Well, that's one reason I wanted a guy like Floyd. If we got 70 from the big 3 and 30 from Floyd, we'd still make the playoffs. If we got 80-95 from the big 3 and 25-30 from Floyd, we're the faves.

    Imagine this:
    32 Beckett
    32 Lester
    30 Floyd
    28 Buch
    40 from Doubront, Dice-K, and others.

    Imagine our pen like this:
    9th Bailey
    8/9th Bard
    7/8th Melancon
    SR/LR Aceves
    LH RP Morales
    RH RP Albers
    RH RP Bowden, Tazawa, and others

    Clay's durability problems are a bit overblown, I think.  If you look at 2009 I think he made close to 30 starts between AAA and the big club and has other years in the minors with 20 something starts.  

    I have argued your same point. Between the minors and majors, Buch has not missed many starts to injury. However, back injuries do not go away easily.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Pitching Depth?

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