I started a thread on this possibility in March. I'm not saying I think or hope it will happen, but it certainly should be a plan that is considered if we are 12 down at the deadline.
The high-priced long-term players:
AGon: 13-16: $21M annually, 17-18:$21.5M annually
Craw: 12:$19.5M, 13:$20M, 14:$20.25M, 15:$20.5M, 16:$20.75M,17:$21M
Beck: 12:$15.75M, 13:$15.75M, 14:$15.75M
Lack: 12:$15.25M, 13:$15.25M, 14:$15.25M
Pedey: 12:$8M, 13:$10M, 14:$10M, 15:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)
I'd love to trade Crawford & Lackey, but we'd have to eat much of their contracts to do so; still it's worth a look. Lackey would have to be dealt this winter not at the deadline. If Crawford comes back and looks good before the dealine, maybe somone might take him to help for a playoff run, but we'd have to pay much of the deal, and we'd get prospects in return. AGon could be dealt to a big spending team, and we could maybe use Youk at 3B or groom Lava for the position. Beckett could be a big ticket item, but it would create a big hole where we have no ML ready prospects. I'm not into the idea of signing another pitcher to a huge & long deal. It makes no sense to trade Pedey. His cost is low for the results, and his drive to win makes him a keeper.
The high-priced short-term deals:
Youk: 12:$12M, 13:$13M club option ($1M buyout)
This is an interesting threesum. Papi is our iconic hero, but is a FA after this year. In theory, we could trade him this July and then resign him this winter, if we wanted him back for a 2013 WS run. It's very rare. Youk could be replaced by Middlebrooks of Aviles, but who would take an injury-prone aging player making $12M? We'd have to pay much of his deal, but still, it might be worth it, especially if it helps us stay under this year's tax. A Dice-K trade would take a lot of things to happen for him to bring back any true value this deadline.
Mid to high-priced players:
Ells: 12: $8.05M (+ 1 arb year)
Lester: 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout)
Trading Ellsbury makes a lot of sense if we are looking at 2014 and beyond, but if we are trying to win in 2013, it's hard to think of a way to do it without Jacoby, unless he brings back immediate help in return. I'm all for looking at what we can get, but I doubt we get equal value. With his injury, I'm not sure his arb will be that high this winter. That might add to his trade value, but it also makes it worth holding on to him more reasonable as well. I seriously doubt Lester should or will be traded. At about $12M/yr for 2 years after 2012, it's hard to imagine us finding a better FA for cheaper.
Free Agents in 2013:
Byrd: 12:$6.5M (Not paid by us)
Ross: 12: $3M
Padilla: 12: $1.5M
Shopp: 12: $1.35M
None of these guys will bring anything great in return, but Ross might get us a nice prospect if he is having a good year by July 31st.
Free Agents in 2014:
Sween: 12: $1.75M (+1 arb)
Punto: 12:$1.5M, 13:$1.5M
Salty: $2.5M (+1 arb year)
Albers: $1.075M (+1 arb year)
Hill: 12: $0.725M (+1 arb year)
Repko: Minor league deal
None of these guys scream out as keepers, and none would fetch much in return either, but Sweeney and Hill would be my choices to stick around. Salty has potential, but I think he could be traded for a nice prospect or two.
Buch: 12:$3.5M, 13:$5.5M, 14:$7.7M, 15:$12M, 16:$13M club option ($0.245M buyout), 17:$13.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)
Bailey: 12: $3.9M (+2 arb years)
Iggy: 12: $$3.9M (+? arb years)
Bard: 12: $1.6125M (+3 arb years)
Aceves: 12: $1.2M (+2 arb years)
Aviles: 12: $1.2M (+2 arb years)
Morales: 12 $0.85M (+2 arb years)
Melancon: 12: $0.521M (+ 4 years of control)
There are some players here that other teams would want, but at this low cost, I don't see any purpose in trading these guys, unless they net us a bonafide star.
Doubront, Kalish, Lavarnway, Carpenter, Anderson, Lin, Middlebrooks, Mortensen, Pimental, Tazawa, Tejada, Barnes, Bogaerts, Bradley, Brentz, Carlson, Cecchini, Ciriaco, Jacobs, Ranaudo, & Swihart
Some could be dealt this winter or at the deadline if we are in the race, but this thread is about the worst case scenario, so I doubt as "sellers" we'd deal any of these guys unless they were part of a deal where we dumped salary along with giving up a prospect (rarely done).
Miller: 12: $1.04M
Thomas: 12: $0.516M
Atchison: 12: $0.51M
DMac: 12: $0.5065M
Cook, Germano, Haeger, Maine, Mathis, Nava, Ohlendorf, Rivera, & Spears