OK. I think it's safe now to at least ponder
Lester, Buchholz, Peavy, Lackey
The only question here is Buch and assuming he has built himself up enough to go six in the postseason, he's in. If he can't go five or six, he won't even be on the roster in the first round. The order is up in the air, although I am guessing that Lester would probably start a game one.
Closer. Nothing to add here.
Breslow, Tazawa, Dempster, Dubront
Breslow is the setup lefty and will be used a lot. Same with Tazawa on the right, if he can get his consistency back. (perhaps some down time in the next couple of weeks would help). Dempster is going to the bullpen and could be huge as a supplement to Tazawa. Dubront will likely be there as well, unless Buch is starting, in which case he will be. With him in the BP, that's another lefty for situations.
Everything points to him being there. Farrell seems to trust him. Another righty setup in addition to Tazawa and Dempster
That's 10. The question will be whether they go with 11 or 12 pitchers.
One or two of the three lefties
Thornton, Morales, Britton
My guess is that they likely would go with Thornton (they did trade for him), given his major league track record if they take just one. Morales is probably next in line if they want 12 pitchers. The only reason I hesitate on Britton is that he is a rookie (though that won't stop them from going with Workman). Got 20 games to decide that. With Doubront in the bullpen, they really don't need all three or even two.
De la Rosa
He is the injury replacement or if they choose to keep Buchholz out. If he is on the roster, I doubt he gets used very much, but he is a possibility
Napoli, Pedroia, Drew, Middlebrooks, Gomes, Victorino, Ellsbury, Nava, Carp, Salty, Ross, Ortiz
The versatility of many of them means they need less bodies. Carp, 1B/OF; Nava OF/1B; Middlebrooks 3B/2B
Highly likely he'll be there, unless he really goes in the tank in September
Possible if 11 pitchers
He is the wild card. If they feel his speed and defense will be a factor, he'll be there and that would mean 11 pitchers. With Dempster and Doubront in the bullpen, they can afford that. Berry will be running for any number of people late--probably anyone except Pedroia, Victorino, Ellsbury or Bogaerts. With the versatility, they can afford to play that game.
If Ross is okay, then they don't need Lavarnway. With Bogaerts as the utility and Middlebrooks able to play 2nd, they don't need McDonald right now
There might be some surprises from Bradley, Beato, De la Torre, Webster, Holt, Snyder, but probably not. of course they are all available if they are needed later in addition to the four or five on the bubble.