Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

     


    Apparently, you don't get it; classic. Here goes: I was ridiculing your moniker names. Maybe there's IQEDs you could take.

     




     

    Weak. You used the wrong word. It's ok, but like arod, you should just fess up.

     



    OK, I'll fess up. I'm an inferior woman, an only child, and my real name is Stephanie, who roots for all things Boston, and just happend to misspell incarnation and then make an excuse for it. Speaking of "fessing", how about some of the things U haven't fessed up to in the past? 

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

    dempster is better than beckett.




    Numbers last year......


    Beckett--7-14, ERA 4.65, WHIP 1.327, WAR 2.3, xFIP 4.22, K/9 7.0

    Dempster--12-8, ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.197, WAR 3.3, xFIP, 3.77, K/9 8.0

    Tell me where Beckett is even close to Dempster.

    Let me add, I said that the quote..."Beckett is a LOT better then Dempster" is not true. And it is not true.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    Shocking, although improving; only a 37 game swing between Balt & Bos here.

     




     

     

    16 of those games is simply expecting equal luck. Not so much to ask is it? As for the other 21, improved chemistry, health, and the addition of nearly 10 quality players makes up the rest.

     




    not to mention the lack of any work to the Baltimore roster. Their 2012 season was truly magical... but they've done virtually nothing to their roster and i don't expect them to even sniff .500

     



    It wasn't all luck.

    They had just lost their best SP from the year before (Guthrie).

    They had good managing.

    They have some players who are getting closer to their prime and should get better in 2013:

    Weiters 26

    A Jones  26

    C Davis  26

    W. Chen 26

    Markakis 28

    Gonzalez 28

    Tillman  24

    Machado  20

     

    Don't count these guys out just yet.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

     

    LOL, I did the research a few months ago. ERA in the low 4's the last 5 years in the AL. You are not worth doing it again. BTW, there is something called inter league games.

     



    ERA over 5 last year in the AL, do all the research you want.

     

    Here's his career interleague

    SplitWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO/9SO/BB   Inter-League 11 15 .423 4.63 50 35 14 2 0 7 229.1 243 126 118 30 93 1 186 14 0 10 1007 1.465 7.3 2.00




     

    I said the last 5 years.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    Shocking, although improving; only a 37 game swing between Balt & Bos here.

     




     

     

    16 of those games is simply expecting equal luck. Not so much to ask is it? As for the other 21, improved chemistry, health, and the addition of nearly 10 quality players makes up the rest.

     




    not to mention the lack of any work to the Baltimore roster. Their 2012 season was truly magical... but they've done virtually nothing to their roster and i don't expect them to even sniff .500

     

     



    It wasn't all luck.

     

    They had just lost their best SP from the year before (Guthrie).

    They had good managing.

    They have some players who are getting closer to their prime and should get better in 2013:

    Weiters 26

    A Jones  26

    C Davis  26

    W. Chen 26

    Markakis 28

    Gonzalez 28

    Tillman  24

    Machado  20

     

    Don't count these guys out just yet.

     

     



    Was very surprised Vegas has them at 40-1. And their SP appears to be better this yr. (It's best to always say in Feb. appears)

     

     
  6. This post has been removed.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

     


    Beckett--7-14, ERA 4.65, WHIP 1.327, WAR 2.3, xFIP 4.22, K/9 7.0

    Dempster--12-8, ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.197, WAR 3.3, xFIP, 3.77, K/9 8.0

    Tell me where Beckett is even close to Dempster.

    Let me add, I said that the quote..."Beckett is a LOT better then Dempster" is not true. And it is not true.

     




     

    LOL, nice, just cherry pick one year to "prove" your point.

    I can't even dignify you with resonses any longer.

     



    To be fair, Beckett does not appear to be the nearly unhittable horse (in alternate yrs, not a coincidence IMO) he was a few yrs ago. And Dempster was good for most of last yr; in the NL.

     

     
  8. This post has been removed.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    Vegas Odds

    All Times Eastern Odds to win the 2013 World Series  Odds Arizona Diamondbacks 50/1   Atlanta Braves 12/1   Baltimore Orioles 40/1   Boston Red Sox 28/1   Chicago Cubs 100/1   Chicago White Sox 40/1   Cincinnati Reds 14/1   Cleveland Indians 75/1   Colorado Rockies 100/1   Detroit Tigers 9/1   Houston Astros 200/1   Kansas City Royals 50/1   Los Angeles Angels 9/1   Los Angeles Dodgers 8/1   Miami Marlins 100/1   Milwaukee Brewers 35/1   Minnesota Twins 100/1   New York Mets 100/1   New York Yankees 14/1   Oakland Athletics 30/1   Philadelphia Phillies 18/1   Pittsburgh Pirates 50/1   San Diego Padres 75/1   San Francisco Giants 12/1   Seattle Mariners 75/1   St. Louis Cardinals 22/1   Tampa Bay Rays 25/1   Texas Rangers 14/1   Toronto Blue Jays 7/1   Washington Nationals 8/1   Handle (Suspended) 1/1  

     



    Toronto is a 7/1 odd?!?  I guess Vegas is now run by Canadians.  LOL

     

     




    That's quite good, buit they look good. I was a little surprised myself; also, apparently the RS are better than I thought, and the NYM worse. I believe NYY are overrated;  they have problems this yr; must be like the Jeter GG. RS may be a little overrated as well. I'm shocked Balt is perceived so badly; they could be a powerhouse IMO.

     



    Keep in mind that these odds are set by Vegas to lure bettors. It makes sense to make Boston, NY, Philly, St Louis and the Dodgers attractive since their followers are the most rabid and most likely to place their bets. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     And Dempster was good for most of last yr; in the NL.

     




    Last year, Dempster had an ERA of 4.30 in the AL. With the Rangers, he was 7-3 with an xFIP below 4. He had some bad luck with the Rangers, so gave up a few more hits then he normally would, so his WHIP and ERA went up over his normal numbers. However, still won 70% of his games. Still "WAS" good in Texas.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     



    The DH is good for about 0.7 to 1.0 runs.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

     And Dempster was good for most of last yr; in the NL.

     

     




     

    Last year, Dempster had an ERA of 4.30 in the AL. With the Rangers, he was 7-3 with an xFIP below 4. He had some bad luck with the Rangers, so gave up a few more hits then he normally would, so his WHIP and ERA went up over his normal numbers. However, still won 70% of his games. Still "WAS" good in Texas.

     



    Luck, luck, luck. Did it ever occur to you there may have been some luck with Chicago? After all, as best to my recollection, he never quite had a stretch like that before

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     



    The DH is good for about 0.7 to 1.0 runs.

     



    Not quite that much.  And ERA+ is adjusted for all that because it compares to league ERA.

     
  15. This post has been removed.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     



    The DH is good for about 0.7 to 1.0 runs.

     

     



    Not quite that much.  And ERA+ is adjusted for all that because it compares to league ERA.

     

     



    Admittedly, I didn't see that; however, that's if you believe in ERA+. Here's a point to debunk it some. In the late 1990s, MLB had an ERA of about 5.1. In the late 60s, it was under 3. This means a P with an ERA in the mid 3's in the 1st period shall have a comparable if not better ERA+ than someone in the High 1s in the late 60s.

     

    I'm not buying it. ERC# may be a better measure, but it's still flawed, albeit less so. 

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     



    How is pitching in the NL Central comparable to pitching in the AL East?

     

    ERA+ is as close to a level playing field comparison as you're going to get.

    The fact is that Beckett had some great stretches of pitching and some horrendous stretches.  For his talent level he's the most erratic starter I've ever seen.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     



    How is pitching in the NL Central comparable to pitching in the AL East?

     

     

     

    ERA+ is as close to a level playing field comparison as you're going to get.

    The fact is that Beckett had some great stretches of pitching and some horrendous stretches.  For his talent level he's the most erratic starter I've ever seen.

     




     

    See above.

    Having said that, he's no Aaron Cook or Paul Byrd; but don't expect him to be a world beater. And while he's a horse (eating innings is always a good thing, and the prerequisite to do this is to be effective & have stamina, which he is), he is getting up there.

     
  19. This post has been removed.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

     And Dempster was good for most of last yr; in the NL.

     

     




     

    Last year, Dempster had an ERA of 4.30 in the AL. With the Rangers, he was 7-3 with an xFIP below 4. He had some bad luck with the Rangers, so gave up a few more hits then he normally would, so his WHIP and ERA went up over his normal numbers. However, still won 70% of his games. Still "WAS" good in Texas.

     



    Luck, luck, luck. Did it ever occur to you there may have been some luck with Chicago? After all, as best to my recollection, he never quite had a stretch like that before

     




     

    All the stats that take luck into account so to speak like xFIP, tERA, and Siera all have Dempster well ahead of Beckett last year. But yes, the first half of last year Dempster was pretty lucky. He was still better then Beckett, luck or no luck.

     

    Let me restate, Beckett is not A LOT better then Dempster. Which was my point.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    beckett destroyed the Sox the last two seasons singlehandedly...his idiotic behavior and bloated mound incomptence is why the 2011 and 2012 seasons hit the skids...

    the best part of 2013? No Slosh Buckett...

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     



    How is pitching in the NL Central comparable to pitching in the AL East?

     

     

     

    ERA+ is as close to a level playing field comparison as you're going to get.

    The fact is that Beckett had some great stretches of pitching and some horrendous stretches.  For his talent level he's the most erratic starter I've ever seen.

    A couple of other ERA stats of use...

    2006-2012

     

    tERA

    Beckett  4.23

    Dempster  4.16

     

    SIERA

    Beckett  3.68

    Dempster  3.79

     

    How about WHIP:

    Beckett  1.23

    Dempster 1.30  (No DH/Little AL East action)

     

    xFIP

    Beckett  3.69

    Dempster 3.73

     

    WAR (out of 53 SPs with 950+ IP since 2006)

    10) Beckett  27.2

    13) Lester    26.0

    20) Lackey  23.1

    29) Dempster  18.1

    30) Blanton      17.9

    31) Millwood   17.9

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    Dempster vs Beckett in WAR:


    2007-2012 (23 with 950+ IP):

    9) Beckett  25.1

    20) Dempster  18.1

     

    2008-2012 (34 with 850 +):

    16) Beckett  18.6

    17) DFempster 18.1

     

    2009-2012 (39 with 700+)

    20) Beckett   13.6

    24) Dempster  12.9

     

    2010-2012 (71 with 450+)

    44) Beckett  8.1

    36) Dempster  9.2

     

    2011-2012 (59 with 350+)

    27) Beckett  6.6

    34) Dempster  6.0

     

    Pretty close.

     

     

     

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     



    OPS against is a good tool as well.

     

    Career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against:

    Beckett:    .244/.305/.396/.701

    Dempster: .258/.340/.410/.750

     

    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     

    His 4.39 ERA at Fenway really raised his overall career ERA of 3.91.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share