Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     



    How is pitching in the NL Central comparable to pitching in the AL East?

     

    ERA+ is as close to a level playing field comparison as you're going to get.

    The fact is that Beckett had some great stretches of pitching and some horrendous stretches.  For his talent level he's the most erratic starter I've ever seen.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     



    How is pitching in the NL Central comparable to pitching in the AL East?

     

     

     

    ERA+ is as close to a level playing field comparison as you're going to get.

    The fact is that Beckett had some great stretches of pitching and some horrendous stretches.  For his talent level he's the most erratic starter I've ever seen.

     




     

    See above.

    Having said that, he's no Aaron Cook or Paul Byrd; but don't expect him to be a world beater. And while he's a horse (eating innings is always a good thing, and the prerequisite to do this is to be effective & have stamina, which he is), he is getting up there.

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

     And Dempster was good for most of last yr; in the NL.

     

     




     

    Last year, Dempster had an ERA of 4.30 in the AL. With the Rangers, he was 7-3 with an xFIP below 4. He had some bad luck with the Rangers, so gave up a few more hits then he normally would, so his WHIP and ERA went up over his normal numbers. However, still won 70% of his games. Still "WAS" good in Texas.

     



    Luck, luck, luck. Did it ever occur to you there may have been some luck with Chicago? After all, as best to my recollection, he never quite had a stretch like that before

     




     

    All the stats that take luck into account so to speak like xFIP, tERA, and Siera all have Dempster well ahead of Beckett last year. But yes, the first half of last year Dempster was pretty lucky. He was still better then Beckett, luck or no luck.

     

    Let me restate, Beckett is not A LOT better then Dempster. Which was my point.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    beckett destroyed the Sox the last two seasons singlehandedly...his idiotic behavior and bloated mound incomptence is why the 2011 and 2012 seasons hit the skids...

    the best part of 2013? No Slosh Buckett...

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    Here's a comparison that should be reasonable:

    Beckett with Red Sox

    1240 innings

    4.17 ERA

    110 ERA+

    Dempster with Cubs

    1182 innings

    3.74 ERA

    115 ERA+

     

     



    How is pitching in the NL Central comparable to pitching in the AL East?

     

     

     

    ERA+ is as close to a level playing field comparison as you're going to get.

    The fact is that Beckett had some great stretches of pitching and some horrendous stretches.  For his talent level he's the most erratic starter I've ever seen.

    A couple of other ERA stats of use...

    2006-2012

     

    tERA

    Beckett  4.23

    Dempster  4.16

     

    SIERA

    Beckett  3.68

    Dempster  3.79

     

    How about WHIP:

    Beckett  1.23

    Dempster 1.30  (No DH/Little AL East action)

     

    xFIP

    Beckett  3.69

    Dempster 3.73

     

    WAR (out of 53 SPs with 950+ IP since 2006)

    10) Beckett  27.2

    13) Lester    26.0

    20) Lackey  23.1

    29) Dempster  18.1

    30) Blanton      17.9

    31) Millwood   17.9

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    Dempster vs Beckett in WAR:


    2007-2012 (23 with 950+ IP):

    9) Beckett  25.1

    20) Dempster  18.1

     

    2008-2012 (34 with 850 +):

    16) Beckett  18.6

    17) DFempster 18.1

     

    2009-2012 (39 with 700+)

    20) Beckett   13.6

    24) Dempster  12.9

     

    2010-2012 (71 with 450+)

    44) Beckett  8.1

    36) Dempster  9.2

     

    2011-2012 (59 with 350+)

    27) Beckett  6.6

    34) Dempster  6.0

     

    Pretty close.

     

     

     

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     



    OPS against is a good tool as well.

     

    Career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against:

    Beckett:    .244/.305/.396/.701

    Dempster: .258/.340/.410/.750

     

    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     

    His 4.39 ERA at Fenway really raised his overall career ERA of 3.91.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     



    OPS against is a good tool as well.

     

    Career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against:

    Beckett:    .244/.305/.396/.701

    Dempster: .258/.340/.410/.750

     

    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     

    His 4.39 ERA at Fenway really raised his overall career ERA of 3.91.

     

     



    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     



    OPS against is a good tool as well.

     

    Career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against:

    Beckett:    .244/.305/.396/.701

    Dempster: .258/.340/.410/.750

     

    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     

    His 4.39 ERA at Fenway really raised his overall career ERA of 3.91.



    Yes

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThatWasMe. Show ThatWasMe's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to Triumph-'s comment:

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     



    OPS against is a good tool as well.

     

    Career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against:

    Beckett:    .244/.305/.396/.701

    Dempster: .258/.340/.410/.750

     

    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     

    His 4.39 ERA at Fenway really raised his overall career ERA of 3.91.

     

     



    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     




     

     

     

     

    He also loved kicking the heck out of the Yankees.




    Lifetime 14-8, 5.53 ERA v the Yankees.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to ThatWasMe's comment:

    In response to Triumph-'s comment:

     

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     



    OPS against is a good tool as well.

     

    Career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against:

    Beckett:    .244/.305/.396/.701

    Dempster: .258/.340/.410/.750

     

    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     

    His 4.39 ERA at Fenway really raised his overall career ERA of 3.91.

     

     



    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     




     

     

     

     

    He also loved kicking the heck out of the Yankees.

     




     

    Lifetime 14-8, 5.53 ERA v the Yankees.



    Does that include the 16.1 IP, 8 Hits, 2 ER  (1.10 ERA) and 19 Ks in the

    2003 World Series?

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to ThatWasMe's comment:

    In response to Triumph-'s comment:

     

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     



    OPS against is a good tool as well.

     

    Career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against:

    Beckett:    .244/.305/.396/.701

    Dempster: .258/.340/.410/.750

     

    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     

    His 4.39 ERA at Fenway really raised his overall career ERA of 3.91.

     

     



    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     




     

     

     

     

    He also loved kicking the heck out of the Yankees.

     




     

    Lifetime 14-8, 5.53 ERA v the Yankees.




    Stats are a b!tch sometimes

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThatWasMe. Show ThatWasMe's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ThatWasMe's comment:

     

    In response to Triumph-'s comment:

     

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    I prefer ERC# & WHIP myself, in that order. WHIPs a little deceiving because you can set the record of WHIP with a 0.5 and still lose if they're all HRs, hence I prefer ERC# & maybe ERC+. To each his own.

     



    OPS against is a good tool as well.

     

    Career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against:

    Beckett:    .244/.305/.396/.701

    Dempster: .258/.340/.410/.750

     

    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     

    His 4.39 ERA at Fenway really raised his overall career ERA of 3.91.

     

     



    Josh also has a pretty impressive playoff portfolio (especially up to 2007).

     




     

     

     

     

    He also loved kicking the heck out of the Yankees.

     




     

    Lifetime 14-8, 5.53 ERA v the Yankees.

     



    Does that include the 16.1 IP, 8 Hits, 2 ER  (1.10 ERA) and 19 Ks in the

     

    2003 World Series?

     

     




    Yes career, includes Beckett's pre-popeye chicken stats.

    Life time record of 4-2 era of 5.66 in Yankee Stadium/s

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=beckejo02&year=Career&t=p

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    It's amazing how this thread has returned to baseball in pike's absence...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from sheley. Show sheley's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

     

     

    Hey everyone   :)

    Predict the AL East standings for 2013.

    I think for the first time since 2000, no team in the AL East will win 90 games since all five teams will be beating each other up.

    I still think that two teams from the AL East will make the playoffs.  So I pick Toronto to win the division and Boston to earn a wild card berth (I think Detroit will win the AL Central, Oakland will win the AL West, and the Angels will earn a wild card berth).  

    Toronto 89-73

    Boston  87-75

    Yankees 86-76

    Tampa Bay 84-78

    Baltimore 81-81

     

     




     

    "Hope is the thing with feathers. That perches in the soul..."

    Wildly optimistic, Ice-cream. I see the Sox finishing 3rd at best. Ben did not solve the problems in the starting rotation.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to ThatWasMe's comment:

    Yes career, includes Beckett's pre-popeye chicken stats.

    Life time record of 4-2 era of 5.66 in Yankee Stadium/s

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=beckejo02&year=Career&t=p

    TWM, those numbers for Beckett are regular season only.  If you click on the ballpark it gives you the breakdown by year.

    If you add Game 6 of the 2003 WS Beckett gave up 22 ER in 44 IP at YS for an ERA of 4.50. 

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Predict the AL East standings for 2013 :)

    In response to HelloItsMeAgain1's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    TWM, those numbers for Beckett are regular season only.  If you click on the ballpark it gives you the breakdown by year.

    If you add Game 6 of the 2003 WS Beckett gave up 22 ER in 44 IP at YS for an ERA of 4.50. 




    Regardless, beckett was not quite the Yankee killer that the nation likes to believe he was.

    He gained that reputation for what he did in that WS, after that the Yanks hit him pretty good.

    [/QUOTE]

    The Yankees pounded him silly several times.  OTOH in 2011 he was 4-0 against them with a 1.85 ERA.  Like I say he was an amazingly erratic SOB.  When he was on he was one of the best.  When he was off he was brutal.

     
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