Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?
posted at 1/8/2013 6:33 PM EST
In response to Beantowne's comment:
In response to craze4sox's comment:
Here is my prediction for 2013 with our present team, good health and no further upgrades.
Clay, 16 and 11 with a 4.27 ERA
Dempster, 14 and 12 with a 4.23 ERA -
Lester, 16 and 8 with a 3.65 ERA - most improved
Lackey, 11 and 11 with a 4.73 ERA
Other SP's 12 and 13 with an avg. 4.67 ERA
Bullpen? 21 and 17 with a 3.79 ERA
Final record best case scenario, 90 wins 72 losses
Team OBP? .349
Finish? fighting for a PS slot
Final thought? Team OBP still too low with average SP but a solid pen
I think your under estimating Lackey's return to health no way he post a 4.7. Unless his elbow is still sore. I also think Doubront will show improvement over lat year and 33 starts with a sub 4 ERA with 16 or 17 wins is not out of the realm of probability. I agree with your wins prediction and that they'll be in the mix all season.
Our line up will be pretty good and probably score about 750 to 800 runs. if we can pitch to a team ERA of 4 we should eclipse +100 run differential.
Hey Bean, as you know I was never a fan of signing Lackey. I think next season may enlighten us on just how well he fairs in our division. I will be the first to admit I was wrong if he pitches well but I just don't see this club winning more than 90 games as we stand today. Your point was also well taken on Doubront or another youngster helping out if someone struggles.
I'm a huge preacher of team OBP and solid SP but not yet convinced we have a good balance of either.