Predict, where do we finish with good health?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    If every team in MLB has the same "good health", I'll predict:

    84-78 (assuming no more major deals)

    [/QUOTE]

    You could be close moon, we really haven't made any major improvements other than possibly the pen, adding Ross, Farrell and Victorino as insurance for Ells. 

    The bottom line is ... we are actually counting on less overall stability at 1B, some of the same players to rebound and stay healthy again, while raising our team OBP considerably.  One or two younger and more significant moves for the "long term" would look much better.  We may be banking on the unproven farm a bit too much to compete right away.

     

    My projection is +15 wins over last year.

    The underlined statement in your post has been my mantra since the Dodger trade and to some extent back to the July 2012 deadline.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to bgomez's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Very Bold Predictions for 2013 (and beyond):

     

    Will Middlebrooks will hit more home runs than David Ortiz.....

    .....and finish in the Top 5 of the MVP voting.

    Jon Lester will win the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award......

    with a 2.95 ERA.

    Jacoby Ellsbury will be traded midseason......to the Rockies for a struggling Troy Tulowitzki.

    Clay Buchholz will have more wins than Dempster and Lackey.....COMBINED......

    ....and will win the AL Cy Young Award......

    ....all thanks to David Ross.

    The Red Sox will finish 94-68.....

    .....and get the second wild card.

    Shane Victorino will lead the league.....

    ....in stolen bases.

    Mike Napoli will be in the Top 5 in Slugging Percentage.....

    .....but will also be in the Top 5 in Strikeouts.

    Jonny Gomes will have more home runs than Cody Ross.....

    .....but his batting average will be 30 points lower.

    Stephen Drew will be just like his brother J.D......

    .....and will spend half the season on the DL.

    Felix Doubront will have more wins than John Lackey......

    .....but less than Rubby De La Rosa.

    Joel Hanrahan will have a better season than Jonathan Papelbon.....

    .....and have an ERA one run higher than Junichi Tazawa.

    The Red Sox bullpen will be.....

    ....the fifth best in the league.

    Steven Wright will be the surprise player next year a la Ciriaco.....

    .....and will win the clinching game of the ALDS.

    The Red Sox will beat the Rangers in the Wild-Card Game.....

    .....on a walk-off home run by David Ross.

    The Red Sox will sweep the Rays in the ALDS.....

    .....but lose to the Athletics in the ALCS.

    John Farrell and Juan Nieves will stay one more year.....

    .....before being let go in favor of.....

    .....Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield.

    The future will be bright.....

    .....and Giancarlo Stanton will be part of it.

    [/QUOTE]

    Got to love your thought process, especially the way you finished off with Stanton.  I just hope we still have a team around G if its through trade :)

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from bgomez. Show bgomez's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    Erase one of my predictions off the list.

    http://clnsradio.com/2013/01/10/report-red-sox-mike-napoli-going-in-separate-directions/

    Shocker. Probably have to scramble here.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to bgomez's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Erase one of my predictions off the list.

    http://clnsradio.com/2013/01/10/report-red-sox-mike-napoli-going-in-separate-directions/

    Shocker. Probably have to scramble here.

    [/QUOTE]

    We dont need to scramble but putting together a package for a guy like Mauer if it doesn't take all our best prospects might be a perfect addition on the field and in the clubhouse.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to bgomez's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Erase one of my predictions off the list.

    http://clnsradio.com/2013/01/10/report-red-sox-mike-napoli-going-in-separate-directions/

    Shocker. Probably have to scramble here.

    [/QUOTE]

    We dont need to scramble but putting together a package for a guy like Mauer if it doesn't take all our best prospects might be a perfect addition on the field and in the clubhouse.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not a bad idea, if we can get some cash thrown in, or if they take some of our big salary (Lackey?) off our hands in return. His stock has gone down, but I expect a rebound. He's not worth what he got, but he can play C and 1B.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from bgomez. Show bgomez's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to bgomez's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Erase one of my predictions off the list.

    http://clnsradio.com/2013/01/10/report-red-sox-mike-napoli-going-in-separate-directions/

    Shocker. Probably have to scramble here.

    [/QUOTE]

    We dont need to scramble but putting together a package for a guy like Mauer if it doesn't take all our best prospects might be a perfect addition on the field and in the clubhouse.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not a bad idea, if we can get some cash thrown in, or if they take some of our big salary (Lackey?) off our hands in return. His stock has gone down, but I expect a rebound. He's not worth what he got, but he can play C and 1B.

    [/QUOTE]


    What about Morales plus a prospect for Mike Morse?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to bgomez's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Erase one of my predictions off the list.

    http://clnsradio.com/2013/01/10/report-red-sox-mike-napoli-going-in-separate-directions/

    Shocker. Probably have to scramble here.

    [/QUOTE]

    We dont need to scramble but putting together a package for a guy like Mauer if it doesn't take all our best prospects might be a perfect addition on the field and in the clubhouse.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not a bad idea, if we can get some cash thrown in, or if they take some of our big salary (Lackey?) off our hands in return. His stock has gone down, but I expect a rebound. He's not worth what he got, but he can play C and 1B.

    [/QUOTE]


    i also wouldn't be opposed to trading for Mauer.. depending on what we give up, buthe fits our needs and the twins might pay part of his salary.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    I have us last in the AL East behind Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa Bay and the Skankees. I totally loved the big payroll dump last summer but I'm not impressed with the rebuilding efforts since. Hope I'm wrong but that's just my opinion.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to trouts' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have us last in the AL East behind Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa Bay and the Skankees. I totally loved the big payroll dump last summer but I'm not impressed with the rebuilding efforts since. Hope I'm wrong but that's just my opinion.

    [/QUOTE]

    B_I_N_G_O!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    I think the top 3 is:

     

    Toronto, TB, Balt

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    I'd go:

    1) NY

    2) TB

    3) Tor

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to nhsteven's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think the top 3 is:

     

    Toronto, TB, Balt

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not banking on our club finishing higher either but truly believe with a couple more quality to impact our future in a positive way we could surprise everyone.  Maybe Naps condition was meant to be?  I wasn't happy with his defense or ability to help us all that much at 1B.  Mauer would be a much better move along with a youngster like Upton but it would take a lot to bring either in.

    My top two offensive choices through trade would be Mauer or Braun if either could be had.  I think their presence on the team and in the clubhouse would be just what this team needs.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to nhsteven's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think the top 3 is:

     

    Toronto, TB, Balt

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not banking on our club finishing higher either but truly believe with a couple more quality to impact our future in a positive way we could surprise everyone.  Maybe Naps condition was meant to be?  I wasn't happy with his defense or ability to help us all that much at 1B.  Mauer would be a much better move along with a youngster like Upton but it would take a lot to bring either in.

    My top two offensive choices through trade would be Mauer or Braun if either could be had.  I think their presence on the team and in the clubhouse would be just what this team needs.

    [/QUOTE]

    That would come at a steep price, assuming they were available.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to nhsteven's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to nhsteven's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think the top 3 is:

     

    Toronto, TB, Balt

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not banking on our club finishing higher either but truly believe with a couple more quality to impact our future in a positive way we could surprise everyone.  Maybe Naps condition was meant to be?  I wasn't happy with his defense or ability to help us all that much at 1B.  Mauer would be a much better move along with a youngster like Upton but it would take a lot to bring either in.

    My top two offensive choices through trade would be Mauer or Braun if either could be had.  I think their presence on the team and in the clubhouse would be just what this team needs.

    [/QUOTE]

    That would come at a steep price, assuming they were available.

    [/QUOTE]

    Napoli? is a guy I have always wanted as our back up catcher not IB.  Our FO really needs to pull the string on better "long term" assets that can help our club.  Yes we made mistakes with guys like Lackey, Dice, Crawford and others that doesn't mean we need to sign a bunch of role players to replace AGon type players. 

    We dumped around 252mil and the worst Manager ever in Bobby V. yet have still basically done little to improve. 

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    "We dumped around 252mil and the worst Manager ever in Bobby V. yet have still basically done little to improve. "

    Just by dumping the worst manager ever in BobbyV, we have improved quite a bit.

    I think the division is wide open.  Any team getting a few things to break their way could win it. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Helloitsmeagain. Show Helloitsmeagain's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    I see the bosox somewhere around .500 unless lester and buchholtz really pitch well, then I could see them doing better.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I see the bosox somewhere around .500 unless lester and buchholtz really pitch well, then I could see them doing better.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree that Lester and Buchholz will need to pitch well. Based on some of their peripheral stats and splits, I think they both have a good chance of doing so, if they stay healthy. Whether Clay can stay healthy is a bit of a concern.

    Out of curiousity, how do you see your Yankees doing?

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Helloitsmeagain. Show Helloitsmeagain's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

     

    I agree that Lester and Buchholz will need to pitch well. Based on some of their peripheral stats and splits, I think they both have a good chance of doing so, if they stay healthy. Whether Clay can stay healthy is a bit of a concern.

    Out of curiousity, how do you see your Yankees doing?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    As usual, I think it's going to depend on health. I like the pitching staff and I think that, while not as strong offensively as last year, they will be able to score sufficiently. Again, that's if healthy.

    I don't see baltimore duplicating last year's luck, tampa's pitching is always strong but they always lack the offense. I'm not sure how a bunch of players that helped the marlins finish in last place are going to suddenly propel toronto to the top of the division, although toronto did have some key injuries last season.

    I think that would be enough to once again battle for the division title while at least making one of the WC's. As we both know, once you get in the playoffs anything can happen.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    I'm an optimist. 

    Lester and Buch pitch lights out.

    Lackey, dubront, and Dempster are solid.

    90 wins, 1st in runs, 2 games behind toronto, wild card win in first round, loss in AL champ game.  Yankees and balt. fight it out for last.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    Serious question: Is it easier to go from 90 wins to 69 wins, or from 69 wins to 90 wins?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Serious question: Is it easier to go from 90 wins to 69 wins, or from 69 wins to 90 wins?

    [/QUOTE]


    from 90 to 69... injuries, underperformance, mishandling by the manager, chaotic clubhouse can turn a 90 win team into a 69 team. and its easy for all those things to happen

    from 69 to 90 you have to have bouncebacks from everyone, good health and great play from every role and even then you may not rebound..

    so i would say its easier to fall than to rise.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    "As usual, I think it's going to depend on health. I like the pitching staff and I think that, while not as strong offensively as last year, they will be able to score sufficiently. Again, that's if healthy.

    I don't see baltimore duplicating last year's luck, tampa's pitching is always strong but they always lack the offense. I'm not sure how a bunch of players that helped the marlins finish in last place are going to suddenly propel toronto to the top of the division, although toronto did have some key injuries last season.

    I think that would be enough to once again battle for the division title while at least making one of the WC's. As we both know, once you get in the playoffs anything can happen."

    I don't really disagree with any of that. The Yankees have a good team and will contend for the division, though I don't think they will be as good as last year's team.  That, together with the things that you stated, lead me to believe that my beloved Sox have a chance at the postseason.

    They will need some good things to happen, but it took some really bad things to happen last year to make them only a 69 win team. Therefore, I don't think a jump from 69 wins to 85 wins is unrealistic with just "typical" performances and luck.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    from 90 to 69... injuries, underperformance, mishandling by the manager, chaotic clubhouse can turn a 90 win team into a 69 team. and its easy for all those things to happen

    from 69 to 90 you have to have bouncebacks from everyone, good health and great play from every role and even then you may not rebound..

    so i would say its easier to fall than to rise.

    [/QUOTE]

    While I agree that it's easier to go from 90 wins to 69 wins, I don't think think that dropping that many games down from one season to the next is any easy task.  It took almost a perfect storm of bad events happening in the same season for our record to be that bad.

    You mentioned the injuries, the underperformances, the manager, and the clubhouse.  Any of those things can easily occur, but for all of them to occur in the same year to the extent that they did is pretty remarkable.

    That's why I don't think turning the record back around will be as difficult as some others think.  It won't be easy, but just an average number of bad breaks will be a big improvement over last year.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Serious question: Is it easier to go from 90 wins to 69 wins, or from 69 wins to 90 wins?

    [/QUOTE]

    90 to 69 without a doubt but measuring the talent from our 90 win teams to today is still the question hill.  If everyone stays healthy and all our platoon players do whats expected of them I still don't see more than 88 wins.  Guys like Pede, Ells, Middy, Papi all need to have OBP's close to, or north of .350 and big years offensively in my opinion to stay competitive. 

    Ross also needs to make a difference with our mediocre staff while Lav matures.  This could be Salty's last season unless he improves his game calling and OBP significatly.  If the choice is having control of Lav through 2018 we should give him a good look before re-signing a .280 OB guy as our primary starter.  Farrel should alsol have a small but positive impact in the clubhouse but its the talent on the field that needs to get it done because John is still a raw manager.

    Without further upgrades and a solid/healthy year I think the team falls somewhere between the 84 and 88 wins moon and I have predicted. 

     

     

     

     

     

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